27 may be obvious even if unexpected

[mjt328]

On 4/8/2023 at 11:34 AM, 4merper4mer said:

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

 

Terrible idea.

 

1.  The Bills would get zero value in 2023 from this year's 1st Round Pick, unless Josh Allen gets hurt (in which case the season is sunk anyway).

 

2.  The chances that Hooker's value would increase in 2-3 years is very small.  How much value do guys like Malik Willis, Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder hold right now?  All had some mid-late 1st Round buzz last year.  All went in the 3rd Round.  After a season of development, they would be lucky to fetch an equal draft pick.

 

 

[Kwai San]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:41 PM, 4merper4mer said:

Lol.  If you think there isn’t first round interest in Hooker you might why to try to catch that turnip truck you fell off.

I’ll be here to accept your apologies if Hooker doesn’t go in the top 26.

 

Sure will be interesting to see how this post ages after the first round........not saying one way or another just a pretty bold statement.

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Terrible idea.

 

1.  The Bills would get zero value in 2023 from this year's 1st Round Pick, unless Josh Allen gets hurt (in which case the season is sunk anyway).

 

2.  The chances that Hooker's value would increase in 2-3 years is very small.  How much value do guys like Malik Willis, Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder hold right now?  All had some mid-late 1st Round buzz last year.  All went in the 3rd Round.  After a season of development, they would be lucky to fetch an equal draft pick.

 

 

Why did you delete the top two options and respond only to the fallback? Just so you could use extreme adjectives like “terrible”?   Is that a constructive way of having a discussion?

1 minute ago, Kwai San said:

 

Sure will be interesting to see how this post ages after the first round........not saying one way or another just a pretty bold statement.

McShay has talked about him going to Minny at I think 23.  It’s McShay so I won’t hang my hat on it but the assertion that this dude will somehow last until the 4th is clearly a joke.

[Coach Tuesday]

Using their first-round pick on a 25 year-old QB coming off an ACL injury who fumbled 39 times (!) in college is just about the dumbest idea in the history of the internet.

 

In the fourth or fifth round - sure.

[Kwai San]

30 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

McShay has talked about him going to Minny at I think 23.  It’s McShay so I won’t hang my hat on it but the assertion that this dude will somehow last until the 4th is clearly a joke.

 Todd McShay......enuff said.  Will be interesting to see where he ends up and what round.......

[Solomon Grundy]

On 4/8/2023 at 5:53 PM, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I would draft him then trade him to the Cowboys. 

 

Jerry Jones has always wanted to bring a hooker to dallas

What about Debbie?...😎

On 4/8/2023 at 12:40 PM, Johnnyp566 said:

Hooker is not going in the first round. This is a product of the media only wanting to focus on 1 position in terms of draft coverage and the more they have early then the more talking points they have. Draft coverage is extremely difficult these days because it’s so quarterback centric. 

Hendon may have been the Heisman Trophy winner albeit the injury 

[4merper4mer]

13 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 Todd McShay......enuff said.  Will be interesting to see where he ends up and what round.......

McShay is not the best in any sense, but he is not usually off by multiple rounds.

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Why did you delete the top two options and respond only to the fallback? Just so you could use extreme adjectives like “terrible”?   Is that a constructive way of having a discussion?

 

Because trading down is not a terrible idea.  

Drafting Herndon Hooker is a terrible idea.  Maybe one of the worst draft ideas I've seen on this board.

 

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

McShay has talked about him going to Minny at I think 23.  It’s McShay so I won’t hang my hat on it but the assertion that this dude will somehow last until the 4th is clearly a joke.

 

You never know.  But my money would be on Hooker being a 2nd/3rd Rounder.

 

[The Frankish Reich]

19 hours ago, mjt328 said:

2.  The chances that Hooker's value would increase in 2-3 years is very small.  How much value do guys like Malik Willis, Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder hold right now?  All had some mid-late 1st Round buzz last year.  All went in the 3rd Round.  After a season of development, they would be lucky to fetch an equal draft pick

Correct. A draft pick backup QB is a depreciating asset UNLESS the starter gets injured and he plays really well over the course of at least 4 games or so. (Think Brock Purdy if he’d been a high pick.) 

So you would be gambling on Allen getting hurt, Hooker stepping in (which he probably couldn’t do until next season) and playing well, and then turning Pick 27 in 2023 into, say, Pick 15 (none of the best dozen or so teams will be looking for a QB) in 2025. And by then Hooker would only be under team control for 2-3 more years, so that would depress his trade value.
So let’s summarize:

- minimal value for Pick 27 over the next two years  in exchange for slightly better value come 2025

- and that slightly better value only comes if Allen gets hurt in at least one of the next two years

Sounds like a great plan! Can’t believe I didn’t see it before given that it’s so obvious now. 

[major]

With the 27th pick the Buffalo bills select TJ Hooker

[CoudyBills]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:56 PM, Dr. Who said:

Lot of 3D Chess going on in your calculations. It is initially so implausible, folks are just going to ridicule.

I think I follow your rationale. While superficially outrageous, it's not unjustifiable if you rate Hooker that high.

I believe that there are questions about him because the Tennessee offense was so driven by the quick strike and getting the ball out rapidly

that no one truly knows how he would process reading NFL defenses. And he's an older player -- so I'm not sure your valuation is correct.

You are gambling that it is shared enough by other NFL teams to make the pick a commodity that will pay off.

 

I certainly do not see Josh Allen traded in 3 years because Hendon Hooker has displayed sufficient brilliance to make that an equitable decision.

 

 

OP reminds me a bit of Flannery O'Connor. Very deadpan sense of humor, so the whole thing might be an elaborate hoax;

then again, might be serious.

7D...7 dumbasses

[Mark80]

Isn't this the dude about to collect social security?  Like Brandon Weeden all over again.

[ScorpionZero]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:34 PM, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

If what you say is true that this draft is that weak, then use the picks to move up and get Robinson as he will have the biggest positive effect on the team.

[Captain_Quint]

On 4/10/2023 at 3:37 PM, Coach Tuesday said:

Using their first-round pick on a 25 year-old QB coming off an ACL injury who fumbled 39 times (!) in college is just about the dumbest idea in the history of the internet.

 

 

Well yeah, when you put it like that it is. 

[4merper4mer]

Given the trouble apparently brewing with Josh, I think the Hooker thing is far more realistic…..not just trade ps using him as a chip, but having him rostered as insurance/backup.

[ddaryl]

8 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Given the trouble apparently brewing with Josh, I think the Hooker thing is far more realistic…..not just trade ps using him as a chip, but having him rostered as insurance/backup.

 

what troubles are you talking about Willis?

Edited April 17, 2023 by ddaryl

[4merper4mer]

8 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

what troubles are you talking about Willis?

There is another thread on here somewhere claiming Josh knocked up some bartender and Brittany has gone missing.  I don’t know much of the detail but I’ve seen enough episodes of Forensic Files and Dateline NBC to be a bit worried.

[ddaryl]

54 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

There is another thread on here somewhere claiming Josh knocked up some bartender and Brittany has gone missing.  I don’t know much of the detail but I’ve seen enough episodes of Forensic Files and Dateline NBC to be a bit worried.

 

 

infidelity happens, I'm actually wondering why Josh hasn't dumped Brittany yet... They've been together since HS and yet he hadn't even proposed... the writing was on the wall on this one. 

 

 

As for how it affects Josh's ability to process the game is something to watch but reaching for and drafting a replacement in the 1st rd because of value and Josh's private issue is a bit over the top for me.

[4merper4mer]

20 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

infidelity happens, I'm actually wondering why Josh hasn't dumped Brittany yet... They've been together since HS and yet he hadn't even proposed... the writing was on the wall on this one. 

 

 

As for how it affects Josh's ability to process the game is something to watch but reaching for and drafting a replacement in the 1st rd because of value and Josh's private issue is a bit over the top for me.

Kyle Allen ain’t cutting it over the long haul.

[ddaryl]

21 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Kyle Allen ain’t cutting it over the long haul.

 

 

how many backup QB are going to make it over the  long haul ?

 

Bring in someone better but don't see the logic in reaching in the 1st round for a backup, and the odds of being able to dump sed pick for a larger future draft haul if he isn't needed,  seems a bit unlikely. Way too much of a gamble IMO