27 may be obvious even if unexpected

[Virgil]

If he was really worth that much trade value, then why wouldn’t anyone trade up in front us and take him?

 

I also can’t imagine the Bills throwing away a pick instead of bringing in someone who can contribute this year.  
 

[SoCal Deek]

As my mother always said: If one’s available…take the hooker every time. 

[MJS]

Have a friend read your post before you hit "send" next time. It will save you some grief.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

There is nothing obvious with this team since Marrone left.

[4merper4mer]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Can’t worry about 3-4 years down the road when you got a Super Bowl window.

 

Pick the best player 

Did you read it?

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Did you just watch Kevin Costner’s Draft Day?

Also, I like Hooker. But he’s 25 and hurt with an ACL. This year is his redshirt injury year. So he will maybe be a 26 year old rookie in 2024. People don’t trade future value for guys like that. 

 

 

Yeah something tells me the OP doesn't know the dude is already mid career-age.   

 

I am all for taking the best QB available in round 1 every year...........long term success will favor an organization that is ultra-QB-centric like that.    The assumption is that 1st round picks mostly hit but the reality is that only about half even get their 5th year option picked up and even less make big impacts.   They are lottery tickets and QB's are the only true jackpots the way the game is played nowadays.

 

But Hooker specifically is a really shaky,  Brandon-Weeden-esque prospect, IMO.

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Did you read it?

I just fully did now.

 

I do agree they should try to trade back if the value isn’t there.

 

However, I would respectfully disagree selecting him as I just don’t think it would make much sense

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah something tells me the OP doesn't know the dude is already mid career-age.   

 

I am all for taking the best QB available in round 1 every year...........long term success will favor an organization that is ultra-QB-centric like that.    The assumption is that 1st round picks mostly hit but the reality is that only about half even get their 5th year option picked up and even less make big impacts.   They are lottery tickets and QB's are the only true jackpots the way the game is played nowadays.

 

But Hooker specifically is a really shaky,  Brandon-Weeden-esque prospect, IMO.

Two post 27 teams need to like him in order for Buffalo to add value.  If you’ve seen him play I think you’d agree that 2 or more of the teams I listed probably like him to an extent where they would give up some value if he is there at 27…..which he might not be.  Our alternative is a likely worthless WR bust like Addison, a meh LB or picking a good player like Rice way above projected slot.  Worth the acknowledged risk IMO.

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol.  If you think there isn’t first round interest in Hooker you might why to try to catch that turnip truck you fell off.

I’ll be here to accept your apologies if Hooker doesn’t go in the top 26.

Mason Rudolph was a first rounder. Hooker is a better prospect. Getting that 5th year option is incredibly valuable with QBs given the cost of their second contracts. 

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, somnus00 said:

Mason Rudolph was a first rounder. Hooker is a better prospect. Getting that 5th year option is incredibly valuable with QBs given the cost of their second contracts. 

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

[somnus00]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

Thank you, I was way off. Not sure why I could've sworn he went in the first. 

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

Mason Rudolph was a first rounder. Hooker is a better prospect. Getting that 5th year option is incredibly valuable with QBs given the cost of their second contracts. 

 

3 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

Rudolph went in the third, did nothing, and now is a free agent who nobody wants. 

[90sBills]

54 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Really.  Any choice?  Even if you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better?  Shirley.

In no way is this the same.  The Pack miscalculated Rodgers desire and longevity a bit and were only giving themselves option 3 from my original post.  They never even entertained my first two options.

If he’s that much in demand that ‘you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better’ wouldn’t it make more sense to trade that pick to those teams that want him? It would lessen your risk of wasting a pick if the ‘demand’ never materialized. Just spitballing down your rabbit hole. 

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

If he’s that much in demand that ‘you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better’ wouldn’t it make more sense to trade that pick to those teams that want him? It would lessen your risk of wasting a pick if the ‘demand’ never materialized. Just spitballing down your rabbit hole. 

Read the original post.

6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Rudolph went in the third, did nothing, and now is a free agent who nobody wants. 

In an unexpected turn of events it has been revealed that Hooker and Rudolph are, in fact, two different people.

[90sBills]

16 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Read the original post.

In an unexpected turn of events it has been revealed that Hooker and Rudolph are, in fact, two different people.

I did read your original post. That’s why I commented that making the actual pick is not strategically smart. Trading down is fine if you can gain from it. But to actually assume the risk isn’t smart.

 

Edit: But this is the offseason so just chatting football is entertaining!

Edited April 8, 2023 by 90sBills

[Draconator]

1 hour ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Day Drinkin can be a lot of fun.😁

[Yantha]

Excuse me sir, but I believe you meant to post this in the Bills-related unpopular opinion thread.

 

 

QB in round 1 would be bold yes, but also ill advised to say the least.  Josh Allen will be 40 years old before he retires a Bill.

[Simon Says]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

DRAFTING Hooper would be insane and risky. TRADING the pick to a team that wants a QB makes sense. Beane will absolutely not waste this pick. 

[somnus00]

28 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Rudolph went in the third, did nothing, and now is a free agent who nobody wants. 

You are correct. I wasn't advocating for this draft idea. I think it's a horrible concept given the teams current holes. I was just saying that it's easy to see Hooker going in the first. That's all. This team needs contributors now. Not a luxury QB pick.

[LyndonvilleBill]

8 minutes ago, Draconator said:

AMEN!!