My money is on Beane moving up in the 1st rd to take an offensive player.

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Bijan Robinson is talented. But we're covered at RB. We've already spent a 2nd Round Pick on James Cook and a 5th Round Pick on Nyheim Hines in less than a year. Then we went out and signed Damien Harris to compliment them.

 

There's zero chance they then spend a 1st Round Pick AND trade up for one after what they've already done. Less so with the holes we have to fill.

 

And I've said this a million times, but I'll say it again - McDermott has only ever dressed 3 RB's on Game Day. 2 true RB's and 1 RB/ST. Nyheim Hines will dress for the latter role. Meaning 1 of Cook and Harris would be made inactive on Game Day. I don't think they signed Damien Harris to be our TJ Yeldon/Matt Breida "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" inactive RB.

 

Cook, Harris, and Hines is a very solid core to dress on Game Day. Especially with how we tend to use RB here. I get liking Bijan's talent. But we have too much to do elsewhere to be making CJ Spiller-esque upgrade luxury picks. Picking him and especially trading up for him is nonsense.

 

While I like Damien Harris, his injury history doesn't inspire confidence.  Hines is an afterthought.  There's nothing to suggest he'll be used any more than he was last season.  He could easily be released.  

 

Trading up for a top 5 talent in the draft is anything but nonsense.  

[BillsFanForever19]

33 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

While I like Damien Harris, his injury history doesn't inspire confidence.  Hines is an afterthought.  There's nothing to suggest he'll be used any more than he was last season.  He could easily be released.  

 

Trading up for a top 5 talent in the draft is anything but nonsense.  

 

Your take on Hines is just false. We just handed him 4 million dollars in cash as a restructure to keep him. Teams are not in the business of giving someone 4 million dollars if they aren't in the plans. We also gave up a 5th Round Pick to acquire him not even a year ago. Not to mention 2 million plus in Dead Cap to release him. Hines is going nowhere.

 

We also spent a 2nd on Cook less than a year ago. Slowly worked him into the lineup and by the end of the year, he was showing growth. You don't spend a 2nd on a RB and when he shows development, then spend a 1st on another. That's insane.

 

If we had a solid roster with depth all over the place and Robinson was there at 27, maybe. But the fact is we lack depth in places, have outright holes at other places, and don't have cap space to fill them all. 

 

Drafting Robinson and especially trading up for him is incredibly shortsighted. This idea is like Buddy Nix drafting CJ Spiller. 

Edited April 9, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[QLBillsFan]

15 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I wouldn't complain at all, but this would be uncharacteristic of Beane.  

With 6 picks and needing 3-4 significant contributors I don’t see it. Let’s say they move up for Johnston WR from TCU.. do they give up a 2nd or a 3rd? If 2nd then the LB’s Campbell and Sanders are out. Leaving the 3rd for an OT to compete w SB. Essentially, means LB starter will be on current roster. 
 

[QLBillsFan]

13 hours ago, papazoid said:

 

that would work...lol

Hmm not sure the Bills and Titans are a good trade match. Coaches don’t seem to like each other. Thinking the Titans are under more pressure than McBeane.. Not sure Titans have the cache to be in build for the future mode 🤷🏻‍♂️

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

So are a good percentage of WR's coming out of College. The same things were said about DK Metcalf. Johnston like most prospects need to be coached up.

 

But the fact remains - he's the best Outside WR Prospect with the blend of size and speed I foresee us looking for at WR on the boundary. Flowers and NSJ are clearly slot guys. Addison is a bit of a tweener.

 

If Beane moves up to select him, than he feels he's closer to Boom than Bust.

Good breakdown. I'm not really in love with any of the WRs in this draft. None of them seem to be true number one Wrs. 

 

I'm not crazy about moving up for a WR in this class. However, every year there seems to be Wrs that outperform their expectations. That's likely the case this year too. Johnston could definelty fall into this category. 

[Shaw66]

16 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

The more I think about it this makes the most sense. Imo the pressure is on Beane to make this draft work and fortifying Josh would be the best bet, whether it be a stud RB, a top tier WR or a OL to help solidify the trenches. To me it’s really between a stud RB or a mainstay OL because to hear Beane a top WR isn’t as important as one would think. 
 

Not having an abundance of draft picks this year I expect Beane to tap into the the 2024 draft resource to make this happen, either using a day 2 or 3 pick to move up in this year’s draft. Why not use a future draft pick when the heat is on now for a successful draft. If Beane comes up short this year he may not have to worry about next year’s draft. 

I don't see it.  As others have said, Beane really doesn't like trading picks from future years, so there's that.

 

Beyond that, I'm thinking that Beane and McDermott are more comfortable with their existing personnel than most of us fans are. I'm not saying they're right, because I certainly think they need more offensive line help.  I'm saying that whether they're right or wrong, that's what they think. 

 

There's a current thread with a link to video of some ESPN guy saying the Bills are obviously still the team to beat, or one of the teams to beat.  It's important to remember that.  The Bills do not have a personnel crisis - they are a very good team trying to get better, and they have somewhat limited resources.  

 

I don't know anything about the pool of guys coming out of college, but all I see is that it's a relatively weak class.   If that's true, Beane knows it, and I think knowing it's a weak class will make Beane MORE reluctant to trade up.   If it's a weak class, he's probably less likely to make a bold move.  

 

But what do I know?  As in previous years, I'm going to sit and watch, and then I'll try to understand what Beane was thinking.  

[chongli]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

Something like this seems like a good trade up to me.   At least I would be pretty excited about season.  

 

 

Wait...so you have Buffalo moving up 16 spots in the first, from 27 to 11, and also 18 spots in the second from 59 to 41, plus getting a 3rd rounder (72) from Tennessee, simply by giving them our 2024 first (in addition to our late first and seconds this year), which is probably going to be late?? There is no way this is possible. By comparison, in 2018, KC moved up 17 spots, from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes, and we got their 2018 first and 2017 third (91).

Edited April 9, 2023 by chongli

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

The more I think about it this makes the most sense. Imo the pressure is on Beane to make this draft work and fortifying Josh would be the best bet, whether it be a stud RB, a top tier WR or a OL to help solidify the trenches. To me it’s really between a stud RB or a mainstay OL because to hear Beane a top WR isn’t as important as one would think. 
 

Not having an abundance of draft picks this year I expect Beane to tap into the the 2024 draft resource to make this happen, either using a day 2 or 3 pick to move up in this year’s draft. Why not use a future draft pick when the heat is on now for a successful draft. If Beane comes up short this year he may not have to worry about next year’s draft. 

 

 

I understand fans wanting this.

 

IMO the likelihood of Beane doing it in a year when he already has less than seven picks is less than 10%. He'd have to get a great deal.

 

"Why not use a future draft pick when the heat is on now for a successful pick," you ask? 

 

Jeez, where do I start?

 

First, because the heat is on every year for a successful draft, and you're screwing yourself next year, which is a draft that looks like it will provide a lot more good players than this year's class.

 

Second, because trading up and giving up significant resources in the trade is a proven losing strategy. Moving up a spot or two and giving up late-rounders much less so, but giving up big resources (except when chasing a franchise QB) has proven very consistently to be a poor strategy. Once you get to trading away 3rds or even 4ths, you're hurting yourself far more often than helping.

 

Massey-Thaler and many many other studies make this very clear.

 

Oh, and Beane's NOT on the hot seat outside your imagination. He's just not.

 

 

20 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Wait...so you have Buffalo moving up 16 spots in the first, from 27 to 11, and also 18 spots in the second from 59 to 41, plus getting a 3rd rounder (72) from Tennessee, simply by giving them our 2024 first (in addition to our late first and seconds this year), which is probably going to be late?? There is no way this is possible. By comparison, in 2018, KC moved up 17 spots, from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes, and we got their 2018 first and 2017 third (91).

 

 

Yeah. And possible or not, it would be a genuinely horrible idea. Luckily not something Beane would even consider.

[Kornfed]

If they fortify the O line, I think Josh has the ability to make the passing game work and make some of our not so famous receivers excel. I also think Gabe Davis has a big bounce back year. Josh has to make this work. That's what a great QB can do but ya gotta give him pocket protection. ... Do that and this could be Josh Allen's best year yet.

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, Kornfed said:

If they fortify the O line, I think Josh has the ability to make the passing game work and make some of our not so famous receivers excel. I also think Gabe Davis has a big bounce back year. Josh has to make this work. That's what a great QB can do but ya gotta give him pocket protection. ... Do that and this could be Josh Allen's best year yet.

While I think we must attempt to upgrade WR, I agree with this.  I want to see him standing in the pocket looking like the Mandalorian…,, like he did in 2020 with a decent Daryl Williams at RT.  Too many times It seemed as if Josh’s first read started with Spencer’s assignment then onto Saffolds assignment, then he’d run for his life.  

[RangerDave]

22 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Defensive players are paranoid and conspiracy mongers.

 

You can't win either way.

That's why McBeane always goes after special teamers.  They are just happy to be there!

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

That's why McBeane always goes after special teamers.  They are just happy to be there!

Yes, but if you look upthread, @HOUSE properly recognized that they drive cheap cars and tip poorly. Shortly thereafter, however, the conclusion to these melancholy reflections is happily determined. I won't spoil it for you, but Buffalo Bills fans have shown an intuitive awareness that the joy of the game is more radically founded upon something less mercurial than the frangible and imperfect character of players.

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Wait...so you have Buffalo moving up 16 spots in the first, from 27 to 11, and also 18 spots in the second from 59 to 41, plus getting a 3rd rounder (72) from Tennessee, simply by giving them our 2024 first (in addition to our late first and seconds this year), which is probably going to be late?? There is no way this is possible. By comparison, in 2018, KC moved up 17 spots, from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes, and we got their 2018 first and 2017 third (91).

PFF simulation model makes the rules, not me. 

[Chicken Boo]

12 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Your take on Hines is just false. We just handed him 4 million dollars in cash as a restructure to keep him. Teams are not in the business of giving someone 4 million dollars if they aren't in the plans. We also gave up a 5th Round Pick to acquire him not even a year ago. Not to mention 2 million plus in Dead Cap to release him. Hines is going nowhere.

 

We also spent a 2nd on Cook less than a year ago. Slowly worked him into the lineup and by the end of the year, he was showing growth. You don't spend a 2nd on a RB and when he shows development, then spend a 1st on another. That's insane.

 

If we had a solid roster with depth all over the place and Robinson was there at 27, maybe. But the fact is we lack depth in places, have outright holes at other places, and don't have cap space to fill them all. 

 

Drafting Robinson and especially trading up for him is incredibly shortsighted. This idea is like Buddy Nix drafting CJ Spiller. 

 

Yes.  The Bills did all of that for what?  To have him return kicks?

 

What's Hines now, our 3rd option at RB?  Unless Sportstrac is off there is no dead cap penalty to release him.  

 

Hines and Harris are likely gone after this season or sooner, leaving us where?  Yes, Bijan is a luxury pick, but a top tier talent!  You can't say that about any defensive player we might grab at #27 and our offense isn't talented enough to be trading up for a defensive guy.

12 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

With 6 picks and needing 3-4 significant contributors I don’t see it. Let’s say they move up for Johnston WR from TCU.. do they give up a 2nd or a 3rd? If 2nd then the LB’s Campbell and Sanders are out. Leaving the 3rd for an OT to compete w SB. Essentially, means LB starter will be on current roster. 
 

 

The Bills have picks in 2024 also.  I'm not advocating for trading up, but if Beane does trade up, it needs to be for an immediate IMPACT guy on the offensive side of the ball.  

[LyndonvilleBill]

5 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Yes, but if you look upthread, @HOUSE properly recognized that they drive cheap cars and tip poorly. Shortly thereafter, however, the conclusion to these melancholy reflections is happily determined. I won't spoil it for you, but Buffalo Bills fans have shown an intuitive awareness that the joy of the game is more radically founded upon something less mercurial than the frangible and imperfect character of players.

LOL. I can see the Google dictionary searches going crazy right now. You must be a blast to play scrabble with. 🤣

Edited April 9, 2023 by LyndonvilleBill

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

If Beane feels there is a Quenton Nelson type guard available via trade up then I would have zero issues w/ that scenario. This offensive line is starving for real talent. We don’t have one single elite player in that area. Someone like that could be game changing and is well worth the resources. Def do not draft a RB anywhere before round 5 😒

[whorlnut]

12 hours ago, NewEra said:

While I think we must attempt to upgrade WR, I agree with this.  I want to see him standing in the pocket looking like the Mandalorian…,, like he did in 2020 with a decent Daryl Williams at RT.  Too many times It seemed as if Josh’s first read started with Spencer’s assignment then onto Saffolds assignment, then he’d run for his life.  

That’s a good point. It’s not coincidental that Allen’s best year so far was 2020 when the line was pretty darn good. 

[machine gun kelly]

I’ll write what I do each year as just google the Jimmy Johnson or similar draft value charts before making suggestions as 7th round picks are only worth one point.  
 

If you have suggestions, then just look up the value of each position’s draft, then you’ll know around what capital you have to give up or gain moving up or down.

 

You guys are smart, so put a little thought and is this player worth say a 1st swap and a 2nd or 3rd.  I trust Beane  as he thought it was worth it last year to move up for Elam, and Benford was a surprise in RD 6.  
 

They might if they can find a trade partner.  For those beating the WR drum, is anyone really worth it to move up.  Maybe.  Just throwing ideas around with any he is kind of waste of time.

[NewEra]

36 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

That’s a good point. It’s not coincidental that Allen’s best year so far was 2020 when the line was pretty darn good. 

Agreed.  I hope I’m wrong, but I feel like we are likely doomed until we have someone else playing RT. I think the interior will be better minus Saffold.   Really hope we can land Browns replacement in the draft. And if Brown improves like Beane is hoping he does, we can probably trade him for a 3rd or 4th.  

[BillsFanForever19]

8 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Yes.  The Bills did all of that for what?  To have him return kicks?

 

What's Hines now, our 3rd option at RB?  Unless Sportstrac is off there is no dead cap penalty to release him.  

 

Hines and Harris are likely gone after this season or sooner, leaving us where?  Yes, Bijan is a luxury pick, but a top tier talent!  You can't say that about any defensive player we might grab at #27 and our offense isn't talented enough to be trading up for a defensive guy.

 

The Bills have picks in 2024 also.  I'm not advocating for trading up, but if Beane does trade up, it needs to be for an immediate IMPACT guy on the offensive side of the ball.  

 

Wrong again. Hines is under contract for two more seasons. And Spotrac hasn't updated the contract since his restructure. But OTC has, it's a 2 million dollar dead cap hit (on top of the 4 million we paid up front and the 5th Round Pick we spent on him):

https://overthecap.com/player/nyheim-hines/6989

 

And you sort of answered your own question there. They didn't do all of that for him to "just return kicks". Both Beane and McDermott have said they could have used him more last season on Offense and expect to use him more this season, as he'll have a full offseason with the team and won't be learning the playbook midseason.

 

And I can guarantee you Damien Harris didn't sign here when he did in FA without guarantees that he'd get playing time. We didn't do that just to have him ride the pine on Sundays while Robinson and Cook are dressed (which is what would happen if we drafted Robinson). You might not be a fan or worry about his injury history - but they made the move. They're not just going to replace him weeks later bc you want more.

 

As for next year, even if Harris is gone, you worry about RB then if you need to. This year, the position is covered. We need to worry about the positions that aren't covered this year, rather than upgrading the RB core again and again when it isn't necessary. Again, we've already spent a 2nd and a 5th and signed Harris. The 2nd we paid on Cook (which is a high price for a RB these days) is proving dividends. Now we want to delegate him to RB2 as he's showing growth after the price we paid? Why?

 

And no one is saying trade up for a Defensive player. The rumor isn't even for a Defensive player. The OP got that wrong. The rumor is a skill position player or an OL.

 

In my eyes, this rumored trade up is most likely for a pass catcher. You talk about RB and "what happens if". But look at WR. We've got Diggs and Davis on the outside. Davis underachieved last season. And when one of them needs a breather, we want to put more than 2 on the field, or God forbid one of them gets hurt - it's Trent Sherfield time. We need another outside WR.

 

And TE? We've got Knox and Morris and nothing else. Knox isn't a top tier TE to begin with. If we want to use 2 TE sets, Knox and Morris doesn't scare anyone. If Knox gets hurt, then what? 

 

This isn't even a run heavy team. Allen needs more reliable pass catchers then he had last season. Harty in the slot hopefully helps. But he still needs more. We were in on Hopkins and OBJ for a reason. But neither panned out. Now the Draft is the only real option. If it's for a Skill Player, it shouldn't be and won't be for a RB.

 

If they want to add another developmental player in the later Rounds, that's fine. But in the first few Rounds we need to be looking at WR, LB, TE, and OL.

Edited April 10, 2023 by BillsFanForever19