Draft Busts 2023

[nosejob]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is. I have some re-checks to do (and I have not done my deep dives on the QBs yet hence I have stayed a little out of the fray on those) but I counted up my grades the other day.... 12 1sts, 4 borderline 1st/2nds, 15 guys with mid to high 2nd round grades. Ironically that adds up to 31 which is the number of 1st round picks there are this year. And while it sort of evens out by round 4 and 5 there are fewer 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders on my board than in any of the previous 9 years I have been doing this.

Outside of maybe pick 20, this draft i think is gonna be very unpredictable. I'm trying to shut my mind off from endless scenarios and just trust in Beane. I bet he pulls at least one or two moves no one ever saw coming.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Outside of maybe pick 20, this draft i think is gonna be very unpredictable. I'm trying to shut my mind off from endless scenarios and just trust in Beane. I bet he pulls at least one or two moves no one ever saw coming.

 

Agree. What tends to happen in weaker drafts is teams start hedging towards scheme specific sooner than usual because there are fewer consensus players up there that everyone has high. Wouldn't shock me if we have a few more Cole Strange in round 1 type moments on the Thursday this year.

[nosejob]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. What tends to happen in weaker drafts is teams start hedging towards scheme specific sooner than usual because there are fewer consensus players up there that everyone has high. Wouldn't shock me if we have a few more Cole Strange in round 1 type moments on the Thursday this year.

Yep and I think there's a chance that there may be some one who falls to us that another team really wants. The hard part about trying to trade down a little is the 6 teams right below us, 2 of which are AFC arch rivals.  However, I wouldn't mind moving to 33 and getting 65.

[dorquemada]

20 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Whoever Beane picks

 

- Thad Brown, probably 

 

lol, but yeah, Beane is going to have to resist the urge to overdraft undersize DL and 5 CBs

 

[OldTimer1960]

51 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. What tends to happen in weaker drafts is teams start hedging towards scheme specific sooner than usual because there are fewer consensus players up there that everyone has high. Wouldn't shock me if we have a few more Cole Strange in round 1 type moments on the Thursday this year.

That makes sense.  There are a lot of players that could go in the last 10ish picks of round 1 - none of which I think anyone would be super excited about.

[CDogg20]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:35 AM, dpberr said:

Jalen Carter is Marcel Dareus v 2.0.  

 

Anthony Richardson:  95% athlete, 5% football player.  He'd benefit sitting for 2023-2024 and learning the game but some team will make the mistake and try to play him immediately and he'll fare poorly.  

Agree on the Richardson front, Jalen will be a stud if he can stay outta trouble 

[JaCrispy]

I agree about Wright…scouting report says he has slow feet…And we all know what that meant for Ford…

[OldTimer1960]

21 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I agree about Wright…scouting report says he has slow feet…And we all know what that meant for Ford…

I think Wright will be fine at RT - he did play heads up on some great players against Ga and he went against Bryan Bresee a lot vs Clemson.  Now, nobody is going to mistake Bresee for Von Miller in his prime, but he will likely go in the first round this year.

Edited April 7, 2023 by OldTimer1960

[Dopey]

Who is getting all the hype that isn't deserving?  Who is destined for a bad situation never to live up to their potential?  Who just plain sucks?  Make your call here.

 

1.  CJ Stroud.  QB, Ohio St.  Still too early to know.  

2. Tyree Wilson.  Edge, Texas Tech.  Still too early to know.

3.  Peter Skoronski. OT, Northwestern.  Still too early to know.

4. Darnell Wright OT, Tennessee. Still too early to know.

5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern.  Still too early to know.

6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St.  Still too early to know.

7. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St.  Still too early to know.

[John from Riverside]

Would just like to have as many at bats in this next draft as possible

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

On a different note, I think Stetson bennett will be the next Brock Purdy 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 4/6/2023 at 6:46 AM, CookieG said:

I don't agree on Darnell Wright, except the LT part, since he's  RT and that's where he'll play.

 

When he was born, the doctor most definitely told his mother, "Ma'am, your son is going to be a Right tackle in the NFL."

 

Watch the tape against Georgia and Alabama and watch the Senior Bowl practices.  There's actually a great video on Youtube analyzing his footwork.  Its very good.

 

If you watch the Alabama tape, you might finish it wondering if its not Will Anderson who might be the bust.  Wright did that good of a job on him.

I still want Wright @ RT.  Spencer's so called athleticism ends at his feet.  I'm sick n tired of seeing Brown get beat by speed rushers.  Give me Wright or Addison. 

[Ayjent]

On 4/6/2023 at 2:00 PM, KzooMike said:

Anthony Richardson wasn't good against above average teams at Florida. How is he going to be good in the NFL?

He would get rattled and fall apart with his accuracy and decision-making against almost any team. Although he was explosive if he ran in the open field he wasn’t exactly an escape artist with his feet to extend drives and plays. You would see it from time to time but it wasn’t a consistent theme.  I watched every game he played in and was hoping Mullen would start him over Emory Jones during his freshman year (where AR-15 also had a hamstring injury) and last year I saw why they didn’t.  He played well against Utah and that was really about it. He was pretty awful for long stretches of games often sailing intermediate throws too high and often recognizing the open man too late.  I’m not surprised teams are in love with his physical traits but his body of work as a QB was not even close to impressive. He has UDFA performance with 1st round physical traits. I thought he could’ve used another year or two in college but when you are getting a 1st round grade why would you stay, when your stock can’t improve much and your risk of falling is much greater. 

[Mikie2times]

6 hours ago, Ayjent said:

He would get rattled and fall apart with his accuracy and decision-making against almost any team. Although he was explosive if he ran in the open field he wasn’t exactly an escape artist with his feet to extend drives and plays. You would see it from time to time but it wasn’t a consistent theme.  I watched every game he played in and was hoping Mullen would start him over Emory Jones during his freshman year (where AR-15 also had a hamstring injury) and last year I saw why they didn’t.  He played well against Utah and that was really about it. He was pretty awful for long stretches of games often sailing intermediate throws too high and often recognizing the open man too late.  I’m not surprised teams are in love with his physical traits but his body of work as a QB was not even close to impressive. He has UDFA performance with 1st round physical traits. I thought he could’ve used another year or two in college but when you are getting a 1st round grade why would you stay, when your stock can’t improve much and your risk of falling is much greater. 

Very good write up. Love the UDFA / QB comparison, so accurate. I watched 4-5 games, not as much as you, but enough to not really think of him at this level. So to see where he is being slotted, my mind is just blown.

[SirAndrew]

Stroud, another Ohio State QB. I’d like him to break the trend, but I don’t see it. Strangely, much of this board seems to love OSU QB’s. 

[mannc]

8 hours ago, Ayjent said:

He would get rattled and fall apart with his accuracy and decision-making against almost any team. Although he was explosive if he ran in the open field he wasn’t exactly an escape artist with his feet to extend drives and plays. You would see it from time to time but it wasn’t a consistent theme.  I watched every game he played in and was hoping Mullen would start him over Emory Jones during his freshman year (where AR-15 also had a hamstring injury) and last year I saw why they didn’t.  He played well against Utah and that was really about it. He was pretty awful for long stretches of games often sailing intermediate throws too high and often recognizing the open man too late.  I’m not surprised teams are in love with his physical traits but his body of work as a QB was not even close to impressive. He has UDFA performance with 1st round physical traits. I thought he could’ve used another year or two in college but when you are getting a 1st round grade why would you stay, when your stock can’t improve much and your risk of falling is much greater. 

Sounds kinda like EJ Manuel coming out of FSU…

[Don Otreply]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:18 AM, SoCal Deek said:

Well it’s settled then. The Bills should sit this draft out. 😉

This is one of those low hanging fruit prediction threads, being that the vast majority of drafted players are jags…, 

[Norcalbillsfan]

Without a doubt it's Richardson depending on where he goes. The seahawks is the best scenario, comes in and sits a year and takes over an offensive scheme that made Geno Smith look excellent. If he goes to the commanders, panthers, Texans, and is asked to start and just go out there and be athletic and win games alone, he's going to flame out hard.

[Ayjent]

6 hours ago, mannc said:

Sounds kinda like EJ Manuel coming out of FSU…

Richardson has way better athleticism and a stronger arm but also was way worse as a college passer, which isn’t to say a Manuel was a good passer.  Manuel had better talent around him and a higher completion percentage and td to int ratio but throws were off target to wide open players that still made the catches. Richardson didn’t even give guys a chance to make catches on off target throws and just looked uncomfortable as a passer often. 

[mannc]

14 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Richardson has way better athleticism and a stronger arm but also was way worse as a college passer, which isn’t to say a Manuel was a good passer.  Manuel had better talent around him and a higher completion percentage and td to int ratio but throws were off target to wide open players that still made the catches. Richardson didn’t even give guys a chance to make catches on off target throws and just looked uncomfortable as a passer often. 

Wonder how many teams will overdraft guys like Richardson, looking for “The Next Josh Allen”…