Brandon Beane Set To Double Down on 2022’s Big Disappointments

[In Summary]

15 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I took another listen to the Brandon Beane interviews after the season and at the combine.  What stuck out to me was his defense of players than were much maligned by the fan base.  
 

In my opinion, the three of his former draft picks who didn’t “take the next step” in 2022, are being counted on to “take the next step” in 2023.  

Of the three, Brown is the one that I think can improve over what we've seen.  

 

Understand too, that Beane will say he believes in all of our current players so as not to tip anyone off on his draft intentions.  Who knows, maybe he secretly has voodoo dolls of all three that he sticks pins into daily?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

To me, the Bills approach this offseason is the same as it was in 2021 and 2022. 

 

On the whole, their approach seems to be keep as much of the team together from the 2020 run as possible. 

 

Defensively, it's the same group again in 2023 as it was in 2020, minus Edmunds, but plus Von Miller hopefully. 

 

Offensively, it's Diggs as the big weapon, surrounding Allen with approximately the same offensive line in terms of talent level. 

 

The tight end is static, the running backs have similar draft grades, the QB is the same, the OC has been in the organization for years, they have chosen to fill the WR group with a McKenzie replacement, and Sherfield, but as the OP noted, Gabe Davis is penciled in as the #2. 

 

So, it looks like the improvement will have to come from within the existing players on the roster. I can see the player in Round 1 going to MLB, DE or DT, and Round 2 maybe the Bills go WR? 

 

Still, outside of a homerun pick (like a DK Metcalf kind of revelation), a rookie WR still slots in somewhere behind Diggs and competing with Davis, Harty and Knox for meaningful targets. 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

So, we had two teams with serious injury issues play and they won. Get over it. You're making a mountain out of a mole hill. It's hard to improve on the 2nd highest scoring offense in the entire league. Rubber-stamping, mental roadblocks?! I guess no one can disagree with you. OK. I like McBeane's football ,management lifecycle. No rubber stamping or mental roadblocks here. If you all are mad we didn't win a SB, news flash: NEITHER DID CINCY. So you're comparing us to a non-super bowl winner. What good does that do, if winning it all is the end all? Cincy fans, along with you, should be questioning their GM too. Philly too?!? Quit acting like NE fans in their heydays. You are not entitled to squat. Enjoy the ride or don't. 

 

You were a big fan of mandatory fun day, weren't you?  Have fun or else!  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 hours ago, Airseven said:

The roster is mediocre. There are still an array of holes/needs/concerns. They can’t possibly address them all and particularly under the current cap restraints. For youngish players, on cheap contracts, still with a shred of upside, they have no choice but to tout and commit to them.

The Bills are tight against the cap in 2023, and Beane has said 2024 is tight as well. 

 

This comes down to the same thing on both years, they have to hit in the draft. 

 

Their approach has been to keep the 2020 level roster intact as long as possible. 

 

So to push this roster to a high level, there must be a higher level of talent than in recent drafts, especially to re-pass the Bengals and beat the Chiefs. 

 

They're straining to keep it together. 

[JohnNord]

41 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

I also think Morse is overrated.  He frequently gets bullrushed right into Josh’s face.

My issue with Morse is more about his inability as a people mover in the run game.  It’s just not his specialty.  He’s a fast, athletic  blocker with good technique but he’s not the type of Center that will blow a NT off the ball on his own.  
 

Still I think Morse and Dion are easily the best  lineman and the Bills would be smarter looking to upgrade the other 3 spots rather than those two

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

That means they intend to draft a linebacker.

 

That could well be

[LABILLBACKER]

Sometimes GM's and their egos find it hard to admit they F'd up.  Or maybe the Bills scouts just blow?  I have no faith that any of these 3 players will stick around after their rookie deal.

[BillsVet]

15 hours ago, jahnyc said:

With regard to Oliver, Beane has no choice but to keep and play Oliver since the team exercised his 5th year option and likely no team would want Oliver in a trade at that price point.  What will be interesting to see is whether early draft picks are used at some of these positions.  I would not be surprised if the Bills selected a DT in the first round, which would probably mean that keeping Oliver after this season is unlikely.  Same with WR and Gabe.  

 

There is something fundamentally wrong with drafting players high and then financially not being able to retain them.  If they swung and missed on a guy that's not good, but the idea of using a top-10 pick (EDIT: who has performed) and letting them hit UFA is almost worse.  

 

Definitely gives me pause about OBD's decision-makers using another high pick on a DT...or LB.   But it's emblematic of a trend over the years...their so-so track record on draft weekend bleeds over into using too much cap on UFAs which means you have less cap flexibility in subsequent off-seasons.  And here we are, where a lack of cap room is talked about as a legit reason. 

 

Sustaining a high-performing team, even with a franchise QB, is a lot harder than building one from what McBeane inherited in 2017.   

Edited April 6, 2023 by BillsVet

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Tipster19 said:

Great post, one that needs to be discussed at great lengths. When I think of the position(s) that we’re addressed heavily (DL) and/or dealt with with poor results (OL & RB) one comes to the conclusion that Beane and/or McDermott failed and failed greatly imo. Outside of Von Miller one can’t be too thrilled with the results along that DL and the OL, outside of paying huge money (hopefully all of the restructures made it more plausible), for an above average Center the OL is nothing special, actually it’s one of the weak positions on this roster. As far as RBs go, I don’t think that I have to even say anything about this position. The only thing that may become redeemable for Beane on this position is that it’s way too early to get a bead on Cook, time will reveal his actually worth. If he was overwhelmingly the answer than there wouldn’t be any kind of discussion on the Bills drafting a RB potentially in the first round.

 

Thanks for posting this, it was well written and truly a topic that is worthy of being discussed much more than it already has been.

I think the drafting has left a lot to be desired - especially when you look at how many premium assets were spent on DL.  
 

The crazy thing is that they drafted every type of DL player from freaky athletic (Oliver) to pro ready (Basham, Epinesa) to very raw (Rosseau) and yet they still needed devote a massive contract to Von Miller since no one worked out. 
 

Of course, if Beane’s faith pays off in the three players I mentioned above, the narrative about drafting changed big time.   

[JohnNord]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Sometimes GM's and their egos find it hard to admit they F'd up.  Or maybe the Bills scouts just blow?  I have no faith that any of these 3 players will stick around after their rookie deal.

It’s always a hard balance when to move on from a player.  I think it’s fair to say that after the 2020 season the Bills probably put too much faith that Cody Ford would work out.  They penciled him in as starting guard and didn’t really bring in any competition.   When he didn’t work out they had to move Darryl Williams and start Brown which wasn’t the plan but ended up working out ok.  
 

Had the Bills cut bait on Ford earlier they might have been able to get better compensation that why received in 2022.  
 

The opposite thing happened to Wyatt Teller.  He had a relatively uneventful start to his career and was on the edge of the roster.  The Bills traded him while they could still get decent value rather than cut him or keep him on the bottom of the roster.  In this case they moved on too soon.

 

But either way, we’re at that “fork in the road” with the three players I mentioned in the original post.  
 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Re Spencer Brown:

 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I also think Morse is overrated.  He frequently gets bullrushed right into Josh’s face.

 

I don't know many Bills fans portraying Mitch Morse as anything more than a tick above a good NFL Center.

His replacement IMO is NOT a backup like Bates.  Next season a top Center is needed to be drafted.  

 

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

To me, the Bills approach this offseason is the same as it was in 2021 and 2022. 

 

On the whole, their approach seems to be keep as much of the team together from the 2020 run as possible. 

 

Defensively, it's the same group again in 2023 as it was in 2020, minus Edmunds, but plus Von Miller hopefully. 

 

Offensively, it's Diggs as the big weapon, surrounding Allen with approximately the same offensive line in terms of talent level. 

 

The tight end is static, the running backs have similar draft grades, the QB is the same, the OC has been in the organization for years, they have chosen to fill the WR group with a McKenzie replacement, and Sherfield, but as the OP noted, Gabe Davis is penciled in as the #2. 

 

So, it looks like the improvement will have to come from within the existing players on the roster. I can see the player in Round 1 going to MLB, DE or DT, and Round 2 maybe the Bills go WR? 

 

Still, outside of a homerun pick (like a DK Metcalf kind of revelation), a rookie WR still slots in somewhere behind Diggs and competing with Davis, Harty and Knox for meaningful targets. 

 

I don't know what you're trying to get at other than that OBD is lacking in judgement.  I may be wrong in that, but that's how your post reads to me.

The 2023 overall draft is not going to be determined as to what the 1st round pick is going to be by position.  It will be, IMO, what the overall

picks are chosen.  It's a weak draft and the 1st round pick is a risk at best.

[Chaos]

14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's just dumb.

 

Mediocre rosters don't go 13-3. Nor does Vegas put them as third favorites in the offseason for the next year's championship.

 

They're an excellent roster, and even if compared to rosters without considering QBs, still very good.

 

Yeah, they have concerns. Every team in the history of the NFL did/does. And even more so before the draft and this early in the process.

 

Nonsense also that they have no choice to tout and commit to these guys. Of course they have other choices. It's also really questionable whether they actually have committed to these guys. If they performed poorly enough in camp, they would likely be cut/traded or whatever. 

 

Again, they have other choices. Some could still be made. But most of the other choices are visibly and obviously poorer uses of resources and talent.

According @Airsevennot only is the Bills roster mediocre, Josh Allen is a liability.  13-3 must have been a miracle. 

[Cash]

9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think we have to remember that the Bills put a lot of stock, more than most teams, in what they learn about these guys in interviews.  They certainly will have the mlb prospects ranked by their strict physical abilities, but Sanders and Campbell (and probably Simpson) likely meet all the minimum physical requirements they're looking for.   If Beane moves on one of these guys, it will be because they are convinced his head is on straight in the ways that McDermott wants - team player, growth mindset, intense competitive desire, etc.  For better or worse, it's the bias they've built into their evaluation of players.   

Agreed. And while I can’t say that it’s a perfect approach, one advantage of that ethos is that you’ll wind up with a lot of guys who continue to get better as pros. That hasn’t always materialized in the way we fans want, but over time should both lead to some guys breaking out, and help sustain the culture that McDermott has built. 
 

EDIT: Personally, I think on the macro level Beane needs to cool it with the constant trade-ups. He’s made it clear in interviews that he’s (IMO) too afraid of losing “his guy”. Risk is part of the game, and you have to be willing to take some risks. I can’t/won’t criticize any 1 individual move too badly, because we’re not privy to all the interview-based info the Bills have.
 

But now that Allen’s getting paid for real, we need a constant infusion of draft picks to sustain success. Every study I’ve ever seen has shown that in the long run, you’re better off with more picks (I.e., try to trade down more than you trade up.) That doesn’t mean that every trade down is good or every trade up is bad; just that you should have a quicker trigger to move down than up. 

 

To me, Beane needs to accept that player forecasting is really hard, and he’s going to be wrong fairly often. (Just like everyone else.) Part of being wrong is that sometimes you’ll swing and miss - Cody Ford is an example. But another part of being wrong is sometimes that prospect you were lukewarm on turns into a stud. That’s where having more lottery tickets helps - even the longshots sometimes hit. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by Cash

[NoSaint]

21 hours ago, MJS said:

The roster isn't even set. The draft hasn't happened.

 

Shouldn't we wait until those things happen before we start hurling accusations?

maybe? The draft isn’t going to add a starting MLB, RT, and WR2 and impact rusher

 

so even if we tick off 1.5 of those, it’s fair to question a bit 

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I don't know many Bills fans portraying Mitch Morse as anything more than a tick above a good NFL Center.

His replacement IMO is NOT a backup like Bates.  Next season a top Center is needed to be drafted.  

 

 

 

Hi, my hand's up. 

 

Mitch Morse is more than a tick above a good NFL center.

 

He's well above average. Flitting around the bubble of the top ten or so.

 

Very very athletic and a very good pass blocker. A really good run blocker too at pin and pull techniques and getting to guys on the second level. He's not a good straight-ahead smashmouth run guy, that's not his forte. But he's very good at knitting the line together with good communication and making the guys near him better.

 

Do we need to get someone to replace him fairly soon? Yeah, fair enough. But it might be Bates, who is not a backup, and whose best position might well end up being center. Might not, but it could be.

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, JohnNord said:

But that’s exactly what Beane said in his press conference!?!?!?

 

 

Really? Brandon Beane said, "[We are] Set To Double Down on 2022’s Big Disappointments"?

 

You know, frankly, I doubt that. I think what you've got there is a paraphrase, and not a very good one. With some extra added negativity.

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 4/6/2023 at 11:20 PM, Shaw66 said:

I don't know why people don't get this.   Beane has a very clean line that divides what he will say and what he won't say, and Beane is about as frank and clear about how he sees players as any GM or coach I've heard.    

 

 

Yeah, exactly. If he has something he doesn't want to address, he's perfectly happy saying he shouldn't talk about that right now, or as Joe B. points out today in his latest Q & A, "I don't really want to get into all of that."

 

Less smokescreening than just about anyone out there. He just doesn't seem to want to lie to people. Not all that many GMs hold themselves to that, but he seems to.

 

Doesn't seem to hurt him either.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Big Turk]

On 4/5/2023 at 11:47 PM, JohnNord said:

I took another listen to the Brandon Beane interviews after the season and at the combine.  What stuck out to me was his defense of players than were much maligned by the fan base.  
 

In my opinion, the three of his former draft picks who didn’t “take the next step” in 2022, are being counted on to “take the next step” in 2023.  
 

This season will prove to see if The Bills faith in these players will be rewarded. 
 

Spencer Brown

Brown was the Bills worst lineman at times in 2022 which is notable considering how poorly Roger Saffold played.  
 

Still, Beane was effusive in his praise and defense of Brown.  He point blank said he had confidence in him and listed some reason for his poor performance in 2022.
 

These comments make me think that the Bills won’t invest a high draft pick at tackle and will again roll the dice that Brown greatly improves.  

Gabe Davis

Like Brown, Beane was quick to defend Gabe citing “unrealistic expectations” from his amazing playoff performance and a numbers of injuries. 

 

Losing faith in Davis as a true WR2, many fans wanted the Bills to make a big move.  Some foolish fans convinced themselves to believe the lying huckster on Twitter “ErieCountyBills” who said they were trading for DeAndre Hopkins.  All false hope.

 

It’s doubtful the Bills make a huge move at WR like OBJ or Hopkins given the context,    Because Davis is a FA in 2024 I can see a scenario where they draft a WR in the first 3 rounds.  But again, when it comes to WR2 in 2023, the Bills are putting their faith in Davis to improve yet again.  
 

Ed Oliver

Same story with Ed Oliver.   Nice player.  Not a difference maker unless he plays against a BAD offensive line…or on Thanksgiving.  

 

Beane again defended Oliver mentioning how the things he does go unnoticed and that he fought through injuries.  He did mention that he left “more meat on the bone.”  But Beane could have said this during any of Oliver’s seasons in Buffalo.  
 

Because of his guaranteed 5th year option, The Bills likely didn’t have a choice but to have faith in Oliver.  But I can definitely see the Bills use a higher draft selection on a DT given the contract situation.  
 

The concern for me, is that we’ve seen the Bills make similar excuses for players in the past and it hasn’t worked out (Star, Cody Ford, Zach Moss, AJ Epinesa, Boogie Basham).  IMO a big part of next season will be whether the faith the Bills placed in these former draft picks will pay off…

 

Davis was only a disappointment because people had unreasonably high expectations for him. I suggest you look up #2 WR around the NFL last year and I think you would be surprised at where Davis ranked among them. That high ankle sprain really limited him a lot more than he let on for 4-5 games at least, which likely hurt his production.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Big Turk

[BillsVet]

12 hours ago, Cash said:

Agreed. And while I can’t say that it’s a perfect approach, one advantage of that ethos is that you’ll wind up with a lot of guys who continue to get better as pros. That hasn’t always materialized in the way we fans want, but over time should both lead to some guys breaking out, and help sustain the culture that McDermott has built. 
 

EDIT: Personally, I think on the macro level Beane needs to cool it with the constant trade-ups. He’s made it clear in interviews that he’s (IMO) too afraid of losing “his guy”. Risk is part of the game, and you have to be willing to take some risks. I can’t/won’t criticize any 1 individual move too badly, because we’re not privy to all the interview-based info the Bills have.
 

But now that Allen’s getting paid for real, we need a constant infusion of draft picks to sustain success. Every study I’ve ever seen has shown that in the long run, you’re better off with more picks (I.e., try to trade down more than you trade up.) That doesn’t mean that every trade down is good or every trade up is bad; just that you should have a quicker trigger to move down than up. 

 

To me, Beane needs to accept that player forecasting is really hard, and he’s going to be wrong fairly often. (Just like everyone else.) Part of being wrong is that sometimes you’ll swing and miss - Cody Ford is an example. But another part of being wrong is sometimes that prospect you were lukewarm on turns into a stud. That’s where having more lottery tickets helps - even the longshots sometimes hit. 

 

Yeah, it's time for them to up their game on draft day.  

 

I'd like to think they learned their lesson drafting for need in 2019 picking Cody Ford but then last year they went straight-up need in rounds 1-2, so I'm not confident much has changed.   

 

Their drafts all seem engineered to be safe.  Not a lot of calculated risk, aside from the move to take Josh 5 years ago.  Aside from that, it's been a lot picks with limited ceilings, though I thought Rousseau was an excellent decision 2 years ago.