Brandon Beane Set To Double Down on 2022’s Big Disappointments

[hondo in seattle]

Beane is just making use of a psychological phenomenon known as the "Pygmalion Effect."  In layman's terms, the Pygmalion Effect says that if you treat people like winners, they tend to become winners.  If you treat them like losers, they tend to become losers.  The Pygmalion Effect has shown to be true in the classroom, in business, and in the military.  I don't know if it's been studied in sports but I assume it holds there.  If Beane doesn't specifically know about the term, "Pygmalion Effect," I'm sure he knows the concept through experience.  A lot of coaches grasp this intuitively and use it to their advantage.  

 

No matter the truth of the matter, I personally wouldn't want Beane to come out and say: "Brown, Oliver and Davis were all huge disappointments for us.  We tried to replace them during free agency but unfortunately nothing worked out.  So this year we're just going to do our best to work around their crappy play again."  Public negativity doesn't build up the team or the individual.  It tears them down.  

[Brian Higgins hair]

The draft is a crap shoot. Every team has their hits and misses. 

Words..correct words from our GM.

Make no mistake, Beane knows the cards he has to play in respect towards draft pick development.

I do think ego plays a role in his decision making and will do what’s right for the team.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, BillsVet said:

 

Players get older, slower, don't heal from injuries as quickly, and generally are degrading every year.  It's the NFL.  Contracts are closer to expiring and new players must be integrated to replace those older players on the decline.  

 

Which means what worked last year is not a guarantee to succeed this coming season.   People don't like change, but if you're not improving you are regressing.  Status quo doesn't get it done in this world. 

That is far from completely true.  Most of the players are improving from year to year, not degrading.   They are getting the best diets and training in the world.   They are working at improving pretty much all year long, practicing new skills and improving old ones.   They don't reach their physical prime until 27 or 28.   

 

If you're running your team in an intelligent manner, you're expecting most of the players you have to improve.    The Bills have reasonable expectations, for example, that Brown, Bates, Dawkins, Davis, Shakir, Cook, Allen, and Hines will improve.   They have reasonable expectations that Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Bernard, Elam, Benford will improve.   They expect all of those guys to play better in 2023 than in 22.   In addition, you have other guys who are true vets, and although they might continue to improve, they might begin to decline physically.  Still, you're happy to have them.   Hyde and Poyer and White and Morse are in that category.  You don't ignore the fact that you're going to have replace them, and you make plans, but their positions are not positions of need until they show that's true.  

 

I'll repeat something I heard J.J. Redick say.  When he was a junior in college, he didn't expect to be drafted into the NBA.  Then he got drafted and he made the NBA.  As a rookie, he asked a vet what he needed to do in the off-season, and the guy said "learn how to do something you can't do now."  Redick said that every year for the ten or so years he was in the NBA, every off-season he developed a new part of his game.  Shooting, with the off-hand, changes of direction, dribbling skills, whatever.  He said that if you don't keep improving your game, you're on your way out of the league.   

 

It's true in the NFL.   A couple of years ago, Diggs was working on developing his stopping muscles.   He said everyone works on speed out of the cut, but his trainers had explained that being able to stop in advance of the cut was equally important, so his off-season training regimen was working on those muscles. 

 

I have no doubt that guys like Gabriel Davis and Spencer Brown had very clear off-season programs that were designed to improve particular skills.   Neither one of those guys is yet facing is physical decline; on the contrary, both should be physically a little stronger, and also mentally stronger, in 2023.  

[SoCal Deek]

16 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Players get older, slower, don't heal from injuries as quickly, and generally are degrading every year.  It's the NFL.  Contracts are closer to expiring and new players must be integrated to replace those older players on the decline.  

 

Which means what worked last year is not a guarantee to succeed this coming season.   People don't like change, but if you're not improving you are regressing.  Status quo doesn't get it done in this world. 

Excellent points, but it’s not one way or the other. You definitely have to factor in the age of the roster. Since most players career’s are no more than five years, your returning roster’s status relies on where the majority of your starters are within that very narrow window. The Bills feel to be right around the league average. When considered as a whole they’re neither super young or aging out. 

[John from Riverside]

59 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Players get older, slower, don't heal from injuries as quickly, and generally are degrading every year.  It's the NFL.  Contracts are closer to expiring and new players must be integrated to replace those older players on the decline.  

 

Which means what worked last year is not a guarantee to succeed this coming season.   People don't like change, but if you're not improving you are regressing.  Status quo doesn't get it done in this world. 

It’s not even about change. It’s about roster talent.
 

Last year’s roster talent was good enough to get to 13 and three

 

Now we have to find players that are better than last year’s players not an easy task especially given the amount of money we had to spend

[BillsVet]

38 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Excellent points, but it’s not one way or the other. You definitely have to factor in the age of the roster. Since most players career’s are no more than five years, your returning roster’s status relies on where the majority of your starters are within that very narrow window. The Bills feel to be right around the league average. When considered as a whole they’re neither super young or aging out. 

 

I didn't make any observation about their roster's average age.  My point is, people expect the team to at least remain as good or perhaps improve from one season to the next.  It's not within the worldview that they could regress.  E.G.: They were 13-3 last season, not much changed...ergo, they'll be about that next year.

[Success]

I actually like all 3 of those guys. I'm surprised some want to move on from Brown, after what happened w/ Teller. He gets one more season where he hopefully isn't dealing w/ an injury situation.

 

Gabe Davis also had his own injury issues - and he has stepped up in both the 2021 and 2022 playoffs (his drop against Cincy notwithstanding). I'm also surprised how eager some fans are to move on from him.  He's got the talent, and I'm going to bet when Allen has better protection, he'll excel.

 

Oliver is the only player there that I'd be ready to move on from.  But again - he has the talent, and in a contract year, I think it's a good gamble to keep him on the team and starting.  He could have an Edmunds type of breakout year.

 

[Governor]

The wizard is going to make himself disappear next season.

[BillsVet]

46 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That is far from completely true.  Most of the players are improving from year to year, not degrading.   They are getting the best diets and training in the world.   They are working at improving pretty much all year long, practicing new skills and improving old ones.   They don't reach their physical prime until 27 or 28.   

 

If you're running your team in an intelligent manner, you're expecting most of the players you have to improve.    The Bills have reasonable expectations, for example, that Brown, Bates, Dawkins, Davis, Shakir, Cook, Allen, and Hines will improve.   They have reasonable expectations that Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Bernard, Elam, Benford will improve.   They expect all of those guys to play better in 2023 than in 22.   In addition, you have other guys who are true vets, and although they might continue to improve, they might begin to decline physically.  Still, you're happy to have them.   Hyde and Poyer and White and Morse are in that category.  You don't ignore the fact that you're going to have replace them, and you make plans, but their positions are not positions of need until they show that's true.  

 

I'll repeat something I heard J.J. Redick say.  When he was a junior in college, he didn't expect to be drafted into the NBA.  Then he got drafted and he made the NBA.  As a rookie, he asked a vet what he needed to do in the off-season, and the guy said "learn how to do something you can't do now."  Redick said that every year for the ten or so years he was in the NBA, every off-season he developed a new part of his game.  Shooting, with the off-hand, changes of direction, dribbling skills, whatever.  He said that if you don't keep improving your game, you're on your way out of the league.   

 

It's true in the NFL.   A couple of years ago, Diggs was working on developing his stopping muscles.   He said everyone works on speed out of the cut, but his trainers had explained that being able to stop in advance of the cut was equally important, so his off-season training regimen was working on those muscles. 

 

I have no doubt that guys like Gabriel Davis and Spencer Brown had very clear off-season programs that were designed to improve particular skills.   Neither one of those guys is yet facing is physical decline; on the contrary, both should be physically a little stronger, and also mentally stronger, in 2023.  

 

I'm not as concerned about the technical aspects or training...it's a team game headlined by the QB.  The end result, i.e. the W-L record, is all that matters, not the new drills a player is running.  That's small picture stuff, which is often off-season puff piece stuff that fills the void fans have.  

 

The discussion centers around building a roster that can compete with now 2 teams in the AFC that own them in the post-season.  And, how to overcome their failures in those games.  Because if the wheel gets spun on draft day and it magically ends up taking another defensive player or two highly...you're not helping the QB and it's Ted Thompson v2.0 happening all over again.   

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

The only doubling-down on disappointment would be using another premium asset for McD's defense.  

 

Coming off the Cincinnati loss going defense again is like a business revising an aging product line despite their opponents innovating and gaining market share.  

 

If Beane concludes from the Cincinnati and Kansas City losses the last 2 years that they need more defense the result is they'll continue losing track meets against top-end NFL offenses.   

 

There's stubborn and then there's stupid.  McBeane are trending away from the former and pointing more toward the latter if they go defense in RD1.  

 

 

 

That metaphor makes zero sense.

 

The Bills D was crippled with injuries, absolutely a different defense than what they'd have been if even ordinarily healthy. 

 

And yet the defense held Cincy to their average scoring total for the year. Both sides were bad, but the problem in that game was the offense. The offense was absolutely awful, though unlike the defense they were healthy. The offense scored ten freaking points and yet nobody on here seems willing to blame anyone but the defense. 

 

Spending more premium assets on the D just makes sense. As does spending them on the offense. Comparing this D to an aging product line is ridiculous. 

 

We need help - premium help - on both sides. If you're going to ignore all of the rest of the year and go from the Cincy game, the offense was the one that played far far below the level that could have been reasonably expected of them.

 

And it wasn't that Cincy beat up the offense because they were just not as good. The offense had an absolutely horrible day. These things happen, and unfortunately they did.

 

This team needs to use premium assets on both sides of the LOS.

[Cash]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I think a lot of fans tend to panic about this stuff.  First, as I've said a thousand times, this league is less about talent and more about coaching than people understand.   When you get to the right tackle, you're talking about guys who are not among the 20 best tackles in the league, because they're all left tackles.  When you get down below the top 20, you're talking about guys whose talent looks pretty much like the talent of the guys around him.   It's an ordinary bell curve distribution, and the difference between the 30th and the 40th best tackle in the league is not very great.   Same as the difference between the 30th and 40th best receiver.   Davis caught a lot of passes for a lot of yards last season, and many fans fail to recognize that his production puts him solidly in that 30th-40th best receiver category.   That's a good #2 to have.  

 

Second, fans rarely really understand how good or bad a player is.  We simply don't have the information or experience to evaluate guys the way the coaches do.   When I hear Beane on Brown, what I hear him saying is that they know his development, they've watched his development, and they think he's going to be better.   I have to trust that judgment, because I really don't know the first thing about what the Bills expect of their right tackle and how close he is. 

 

Third, fans in these conversations fail to recognize that players really do improve.   A guy like Brown, especially, with no quality high school experience and third-tier college experience and coaching, coming into a position where even the best college players are unprepared for what the NFL expects, simply is not going to be the player you want when he first steps on the field.  If he's a McDermott type, he's working and studying daily, and we haven't seen his full development yet.  

 

Fourth, when Beane says our starting middle linebacker is on the roster, he's saying something that's literally true today.   He's not saying that guy WILL be the starter; he's saying that if they had to name the roster today, the only guys they have to choose from are the guys who are on the roster.   Beane ALWAYS says he's looking to improve the roster at every position, and every player (except Allen) knows that he's always at risk of being replaced.   Dion Dawkins knows the Bills could go OT in the first round, and the guy they draft could challenge not only Brown but Dawkins, as well.  Davis, too, knows that the Bills could take a receiver in the first, and that receiver could be the eventual replacement for Diggs.   If that's who he is, he also could be the immediate replacement at #2.  The real point of what Beane says is that although he might take a linebacker or a receiver at #1, they've determined that they don't have a true need at those positions.   That's what allows the Bills to go BPA.  

 

I don't think what Beane has said to date should be understood that any position on the roster is safe. 

 

That said, we've seen and heard him enough not to expect that he won't go pure BPA in the first round.   I think they have to be looking for a tackle or a linebacker, and they will move to get one.  Possibly a receiver.   And, given their history, I won't be surprised to see them take a defensive lineman.

 

Strongly agree with this post.  I'll add that Beane and McDermott are both pretty straight shooters - it's very rare to catch either in a lie, and Beane especially is more forthcoming on the draft process than a lot of GMs.  But all that means is, "The words Beane says are true," not "Beane is giving us the whole truth."  We heard some similar rhetoric about MLB prior to the Allen/Edmunds draft.  Reading between the lines, I thought it was pretty clear that once they got their QB, whatever top resources they had left would go towards MLB (the QB of the defense).

 

I'm less confident this time around, because there's a chance that someone like Baylon Spector has been a massive surprise in offseason workouts, and they're willing to roll the dice with him.  But I think it's likely that they're targeting an Edmunds replacement early in the draft.  My best guess would be that they go offense in round 1, and then target MLB in round 2.  Quite possibly by trading up - that would be very on brand.

[John from Riverside]

I still think there is a chance that we go defensive tackle at 27
 

Oliver in his last year

 

We have no defense of tackles that are signed pasted this year

[NewEra]

If we don’t draft a tackle in the first 3 rounds I’m going to lose it.  There will some solid prospects.  Dawkins contract has 2 years left and his play vs the bengals was atrocious.  
 

They say that Josh needs to run less, slide more and not play as reckless.  Well…. They can certainly thank Spencer Brown for Josh running more and putting his body at risk. This will be 3 years in a row we’re trusting a bum (and other bums) to protect our franchise QB.  

 

We have Josh Allen-  protect him and extend his career rather than shortening it.
 

If Brown works out as Beane would hope, we can move one to LT or trade one.   Everyone wants good OTs.  
 

If Brown is the guy we’ve seen in his 1st 2 years, we’ll still have a chance to win the Super Bowl with a rookie RT

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

That is far from completely true.  Most of the players are improving from year to year, not degrading.   They are getting the best diets and training in the world.   They are working at improving pretty much all year long, practicing new skills and improving old ones.   They don't reach their physical prime until 27 or 28.   

 

If you're running your team in an intelligent manner, you're expecting most of the players you have to improve.    The Bills have reasonable expectations, for example, that Brown, Bates, Dawkins, Davis, Shakir, Cook, Allen, and Hines will improve.   They have reasonable expectations that Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Bernard, Elam, Benford will improve.   They expect all of those guys to play better in 2023 than in 22.   In addition, you have other guys who are true vets, and although they might continue to improve, they might begin to decline physically.  Still, you're happy to have them.   Hyde and Poyer and White and Morse are in that category.  You don't ignore the fact that you're going to have replace them, and you make plans, but their positions are not positions of need until they show that's true.  

 

I'll repeat something I heard J.J. Redick say.  When he was a junior in college, he didn't expect to be drafted into the NBA.  Then he got drafted and he made the NBA.  As a rookie, he asked a vet what he needed to do in the off-season, and the guy said "learn how to do something you can't do now."  Redick said that every year for the ten or so years he was in the NBA, every off-season he developed a new part of his game.  Shooting, with the off-hand, changes of direction, dribbling skills, whatever.  He said that if you don't keep improving your game, you're on your way out of the league.   

 

It's true in the NFL.   A couple of years ago, Diggs was working on developing his stopping muscles.   He said everyone works on speed out of the cut, but his trainers had explained that being able to stop in advance of the cut was equally important, so his off-season training regimen was working on those muscles. 

 

I have no doubt that guys like Gabriel Davis and Spencer Brown had very clear off-season programs that were designed to improve particular skills.   Neither one of those guys is yet facing is physical decline; on the contrary, both should be physically a little stronger, and also mentally stronger, in 2023.  

 

 

 

Nice.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

 

32 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I still think there is a chance that we go defensive tackle at 27
 

Oliver in his last year

 

We have no defense of tackles that are signed pasted this year

 

 

Me too. Not that we definitely will, but that we might. 

 

I'm becoming a Mazi fan. 

 

Seems like the obvious areas of need, such as MLB and WR, and maybe some areas of the OL, stand a decent chance of having lost the best players and/or not having good value around 27. If theBills don't trade back, DL seems one of the best alternatives to me, though certainly not the only alternative.

Edited April 6, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

Reading between the lines, I thought it was pretty clear that once they got their QB, whatever top resources they had left would go towards MLB (the QB of the defense).

 

I think it's likely that they're targeting an Edmunds replacement early in the draft.  My best guess would be that they go offense in round 1, and then target MLB in round 2.  Quite possibly by trading up - that would be very on brand.

On brand is right.

 

One minor point on the Edmunds history:  Beane said that in preparing for that draft, he considered all kinds of trade up scenarios, both for the QB and for other positions, but he had not considered a scenario where he traded up to get Allen and still had a shot at Edmunds.  That is, he assumed Edmunds would not be available to him with the resources he had left after trading up for Allen.  He did exactly what you said, except that he was surprised to find he had enough resources to get Edmunds.  

 

I think we have to remember that the Bills put a lot of stock, more than most teams, in what they learn about these guys in interviews.  They certainly will have the mlb prospects ranked by their strict physical abilities, but Sanders and Campbell (and probably Simpson) likely meet all the minimum physical requirements they're looking for.   If Beane moves on one of these guys, it will be because they are convinced his head is on straight in the ways that McDermott wants - team player, growth mindset, intense competitive desire, etc.  For better or worse, it's the bias they've built into their evaluation of players.   

[MJS]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Also what accusations did I “hurl?”

 

"Brandon Beane Set To Double Down on 2022’s Big Disappointments"

[Dopey]

11 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I took another listen to the Brandon Beane interviews after the season and at the combine.  What stuck out to me was his defense of players than were much maligned by the fan base.  
 

In my opinion, the three of his former draft picks who didn’t “take the next step” in 2022, are being counted on to “take the next step” in 2023.  
 

This season will prove to see if The Bills faith in these players will be rewarded. 
 

Spencer Brown

Brown was the Bills worst lineman at times in 2022 which is notable considering how poorly Roger Saffold played.  
 

Still, Beane was effusive in his praise and defense of Brown.  He point blank said he had confidence in him and listed some reason for his poor performance in 2022.
 

These comments make me think that the Bills won’t invest a high draft pick at tackle and will again roll the dice that Brown greatly improves.  

Gabe Davis

Like Brown, Beane was quick to defend Gabe citing “unrealistic expectations” from his amazing playoff performance and a numbers of injuries. 

 

Losing faith in Davis as a true WR2, many fans wanted the Bills to make a big move.  Some foolish fans convinced themselves to believe the lying huckster on Twitter “ErieCountyBills” who said they were trading for DeAndre Hopkins.  All false hope.

 

It’s doubtful the Bills make a huge move at WR like OBJ or Hopkins given the context,    Because Davis is a FA in 2024 I can see a scenario where they draft a WR in the first 3 rounds.  But again, when it comes to WR2 in 2023, the Bills are putting their faith in Davis to improve yet again.  
 

Ed Oliver

Same story with Ed Oliver.   Nice player.  Not a difference maker unless he plays against a BAD offensive line…or on Thanksgiving.  

 

Beane again defended Oliver mentioning how the things he does go unnoticed and that he fought through injuries.  He did mention that he left “more meat on the bone.”  But Beane could have said this during any of Oliver’s seasons in Buffalo.  
 

Because of his guaranteed 5th year option, The Bills likely didn’t have a choice but to have faith in Oliver.  But I can definitely see the Bills use a higher draft selection on a DT given the contract situation.  
 

The concern for me, is that we’ve seen the Bills make similar excuses for players in the past and it hasn’t worked out (Star, Cody Ford, Zach Moss, AJ Epinesa, Boogie Basham).  IMO a big part of next season will be whether the faith the Bills placed in these former draft picks will pay off…

There's a saying that says: “If you listen to the fans, you’ll find yourself sitting with them”. He has a job to do, and it's not taking input by fans on roster moves. 

[Utah John]

Brown (and Morse and Dawkins) will look a lot better when playing next to starting-caliber NFL guards. 

[BillsVet]

41 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

That metaphor makes zero sense.

 

The Bills D was crippled with injuries, absolutely a different defense than what they'd have been if even ordinarily healthy. 

 

And yet the defense held Cincy to their average scoring total for the year. Both sides were bad, but the problem in that game was the offense. The offense was absolutely awful, though unlike the defense they were healthy. The offense scored ten freaking points and yet nobody on here seems willing to blame anyone but the defense. 

 

Spending more premium assets on the D just makes sense. As does spending them on the offense. Comparing this D to an aging product line is ridiculous. 

 

We need help - premium help - on both sides. If you're going to ignore all of the rest of the year and go from the Cincy game, the offense was the one that played far far below the level that could have been reasonably expected of them.

 

And it wasn't that Cincy beat up the offense because they were just not as good. The offense had an absolutely horrible day. These things happen, and unfortunately they did.

 

This team needs to use premium assets on both sides of the LOS.

 

Cincinnati's OL was crippled with injuries so it was something of a draw there injury-wise.  Somehow, Bills fans always forget that.    The other excuse, predictably, was citing their lack of cap room for not improving the offense as much this off-season.  It's hilarious the grand canyon level reach people are making to defend them.  Or, that McBeane didn't create that problem themselves. 

 

Most of you rubber-stamping the McD vision of NFL football just throw up mental roadblocks and go full automaton whenever someone asks about the value of taking defense at this point in McBeane's football management lifecycle.        

 

Besides, how does Cincinnati manage to go to the SB and then back to an AFC Championship?  I guess it was because they had JaMarr Chase as Beane said in January.