Brandon Beane Set To Double Down on 2022’s Big Disappointments

[JohnNord]

I took another listen to the Brandon Beane interviews after the season and at the combine.  What stuck out to me was his defense of players than were much maligned by the fan base.  
 

In my opinion, the three of his former draft picks who didn’t “take the next step” in 2022, are being counted on to “take the next step” in 2023.  
 

This season will prove to see if The Bills faith in these players will be rewarded. 
 

Spencer Brown

Brown was the Bills worst lineman at times in 2022 which is notable considering how poorly Roger Saffold played.  
 

Still, Beane was effusive in his praise and defense of Brown.  He point blank said he had confidence in him and listed some reason for his poor performance in 2022.
 

These comments make me think that the Bills won’t invest a high draft pick at tackle and will again roll the dice that Brown greatly improves.  

Gabe Davis

Like Brown, Beane was quick to defend Gabe citing “unrealistic expectations” from his amazing playoff performance and a numbers of injuries. 

 

Losing faith in Davis as a true WR2, many fans wanted the Bills to make a big move.  Some foolish fans convinced themselves to believe the lying huckster on Twitter “ErieCountyBills” who said they were trading for DeAndre Hopkins.  All false hope.

 

It’s doubtful the Bills make a huge move at WR like OBJ or Hopkins given the context,    Because Davis is a FA in 2024 I can see a scenario where they draft a WR in the first 3 rounds.  But again, when it comes to WR2 in 2023, the Bills are putting their faith in Davis to improve yet again.  
 

Ed Oliver

Same story with Ed Oliver.   Nice player.  Not a difference maker unless he plays against a BAD offensive line…or on Thanksgiving.  

 

Beane again defended Oliver mentioning how the things he does go unnoticed and that he fought through injuries.  He did mention that he left “more meat on the bone.”  But Beane could have said this during any of Oliver’s seasons in Buffalo.  
 

Because of his guaranteed 5th year option, The Bills likely didn’t have a choice but to have faith in Oliver.  But I can definitely see the Bills use a higher draft selection on a DT given the contract situation.  
 

The concern for me, is that we’ve seen the Bills make similar excuses for players in the past and it hasn’t worked out (Star, Cody Ford, Zach Moss, AJ Epinesa, Boogie Basham).  IMO a big part of next season will be whether the faith the Bills placed in these former draft picks will pay off…

[HurlyBurly51]

Even worse imo is their statements that Edmunds replacement is already on the roster🤦

[BillsShredder83]

I get it I really do. But the second that playoff game ended, the offseason started. Words are words, let's see his actions. It's possible they do feel confident in brown, but would take a tackle they like high.

 

It's not necessarily one or the other. They could feel ok about the injury, have no picks that make sense to their board, and feel like he steps up anyways. None of this is mutually exclusive. Hard to judge anything he says when we can see his actions soon. Beane is fairly candid compared to most GMs, but smokescreen season. We'll just have to wait and see

[JohnNord]

8 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I get it I really do. But the second that playoff game ended, the offseason started. Words are words, let's see his actions. It's possible they do feel confident in brown, but would take a tackle they like high.

 

It's not necessarily one or the other. They could feel ok about the injury, have no picks that make sense to their board, and feel like he steps up anyways. None of this is mutually exclusive. Hard to judge anything he says when we can see his actions soon. Beane is fairly candid compared to most GMs, but smokescreen season. We'll just have to wait and see

Exactly… I just thought that what he said about Brown was a very strong endorsement and more than what Beane typically says to defend a player.  
 

He also alluded to bringing in competition at RT.  Many of us fans assumed this would mean a veteran to push him.  Instead they only brought back David Quessenberry who wasn’t that much better than Brown last season.  
 

I think it all depends on how the board falls, but I can’t see the Bills using a pick on a tackle given how strongly they seemed to put over Brown

[jahnyc]

I am not sue he has much of a choice but to suggest that this group will improve this season given the financial constraints he is operating under and the need to plug holes in the draft (such as MLB).  The unfortunate reality is that bargain basement free agents at RT, WR and DT are not likely to be upgrades over this current group.

 

With regard to Oliver, Beane has no choice but to keep and play Oliver since the team exercised his 5th year option and likely no team would want Oliver in a trade at that price point.  What will be interesting to see is whether early draft picks are used at some of these positions.  I would not be surprised if the Bills selected a DT in the first round, which would probably mean that keeping Oliver after this season is unlikely.  Same with WR and Gabe.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Good thread OP but I have some counter points.

 

1. All three guys are on the roster, so what is he supposed to say? " Yeah, we are replacing all three, they were not good enough".

 

2. I think there is something to be said for the unrealistic expectations for Gabe Davis going into last year. He is a #2 receiver but many of us, myself included had preseason predictions that Gabe would lead the Bills in receiving yards and TD's. Diggs would continue his decline from his 2020 season and Davis would emerge after that playoff game and getting starting WR reps. Diggs obviously proved many of us wrong, he was not on the decline in anyway, for most the season he was on pace to better his career best number in 2020. Gabe, as has been pointed out by others since the end of the season, has put up average #2 WR numbers. He's not a 1B receiver but he's a capable #2 starting outside WR. The problem lies in that he should most likely at this point not be way ahead of all others as the #2 receiving  target. That should be the slot receiver or TE. Or at the very least, Gabe should only be a few targets ahead of one of them. Not greatly out targeting them.

 

3. Brown is an athletic freak at his size. Like Josh Allen, Brown may need extra time before he breaks out. Allen broke out in his 3rd year, this is the year for Brown to prove he has what it takes to hold down the RT spot. Hopefully he can have a fully healthy offseason and start to the season. 

 

4. Ed Oliver. I don't think he is tradeable, and he is under contract. Who is going to give up assets for Ed? Whatever the return could possibly be it would be so small that it would be better to just keep him and see if he breakouts. What are the Bills supposed to do or say?

 

 

Where I have some real criticism of Beane is his nonchalant use of day 2 picks on RB's in 3 out of the last 4 drafts. At the very most we should have used 1 pick at the position on day 2 or early. By using three picks and only getting average at best production out of those picks, the Bills prevented themselves from bettering other areas of the roster. Imagine two more o-lineman, or o-lineman and a WR over Moss and Cook. The Bills would have lost absolutely nothing at the running back position while giving them a chance to find talent at other position groups. 

 

I don't love all the DE/DL picks, especially when you have to couple it with a expensive free agent signing but at least those are players at premium positions. 

[billsbackto81]

18 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Even worse imo is their statements that Edmunds replacement is already on the roster🤦

Gotta be a smokescreen.

 

GOTTA BE!!

[Doc Brown]

A hopeful comparison for Brown would be Josh Allen and Dawson Knox's ascension in year three.  Extremely athletic prospects coming into the NFL relatively raw.  Brown fits that mold but can you bank on that leap?  Given his injury history I wouldn't hesitate to draft an OT in the first round if the right one falls to us.  If not then I think Beane takes that leap of faith.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 4/5/2023 at 8:54 PM, HurlyBurly51 said:

Even worse imo is their statements that Edmunds replacement is already on the roster🤦

 

If we think of it logically, Beane knew last April going into that draft that there was probably a better than 50% chance that Edmunds would walk the next off-season. I 100% think that he drafted Bernard with that likely scenario in mind. We have barely seen Bernard so hard to make a real opinion on him. Dotson very well could be the break glass in case of fire fall back. But I would expect a day 3 pick or cheap veteran (Klein?) to be brought in. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

A hopeful comparison for Brown would be Josh Allen and Dawson Knox's ascension in year three.  Extremely athletic prospects coming into the NFL relatively raw.  Brown fits that mold but can you bank on that leap?  Given his injury history I wouldn't hesitate to draft an OT in the first round if the right one falls to us.  If not then I think Beane takes that leap of faith.

 

Agreed. But I think they like Brown's potential enough that they wait till round 3 or later to go OT. 

 

My current wish for round 1 is a TE and I hope it means an overhaul in offensive philosophy, with not one but two tight ends getting 50+ receptions. With Beanes track record with DE's and DL, I don't think I can get on board with any one at those positions in round one. 

 

 

[MJS]

The roster isn't even set. The draft hasn't happened.

 

Shouldn't we wait until those things happen before we start hurling accusations?

[Airseven]

The roster is mediocre. There are still an array of holes/needs/concerns. They can’t possibly address them all and particularly under the current cap restraints. For youngish players, on cheap contracts, still with a shred of upside, they have no choice but to tout and commit to them.

[KollegeStudnet]

The team fought through injuries and supreme high expectations last season, of which, sums up 2022. 

 

In my eyes, they did great. After Allen’s injury against the Jets, Davis’ stats declined. 

 

Business standpoint, Oliver could be still be traded. In the right system he can flourish. Tremendous athlete and team player. 

 

Still, see this team bouncing back. The moves in FA are great. The nucleus of the team is still there. 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

36 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Even worse imo is their statements that Edmunds replacement is already on the roster🤦

Every statement a gm makes right now is designed to be misleading. Beane is too smart to give away any info on his draft targets.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Even worse imo is their statements that Edmunds replacement is already on the roster🤦

 

 

They did NOT make the statement that his replacement is already on the roster.

 

"Sometimes your answer is on your roster." 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Airseven said:

The roster is mediocre. There are still an array of holes/needs/concerns. They can’t possibly address them all and particularly under the current cap restraints. For youngish players, on cheap contracts, still with a shred of upside, they have no choice but to tout and commit to them.

 

 

That's just dumb.

 

Mediocre rosters don't go 13-3. Nor does Vegas put them as third favorites in the offseason for the next year's championship.

 

They're an excellent roster, and even if compared to rosters without considering QBs, still very good.

 

Yeah, they have concerns. Every team in the history of the NFL did/does. And even more so before the draft and this early in the process.

 

Nonsense also that they have no choice to tout and commit to these guys. Of course they have other choices. It's also really questionable whether they actually have committed to these guys. If they performed poorly enough in camp, they would likely be cut/traded or whatever. 

 

Again, they have other choices. Some could still be made. But most of the other choices are visibly and obviously poorer uses of resources and talent.

Edited April 6, 2023 by Thurman#1

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Exactly… I just thought that what he said about Brown was a very strong endorsement and more than what Beane typically says to defend a player.  
 

He also alluded to bringing in competition at RT.  Many of us fans assumed this would mean a veteran to push him.  Instead they only brought back David Quessenberry who wasn’t that much better than Brown last season.  
 

I think it all depends on how the board falls, but I can’t see the Bills using a pick on a tackle given how strongly they seemed to put over Brown

Brown did have back problems that destroyed his training last offseason.  I would not give up on him yet, either.  That doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t be willing to draft an OT high to compete with him - if a good one is available at one of their picks. There are other spots to address and they had little cap room and only a few draft picks (all late in the rounds) to work with.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Exactly… I just thought that what he said about Brown was a very strong endorsement and more than what Beane typically says to defend a player.  
 

He also alluded to bringing in competition at RT.  Many of us fans assumed this would mean a veteran to push him.  Instead they only brought back David Quessenberry who wasn’t that much better than Brown last season.  
 

I think it all depends on how the board falls, but I can’t see the Bills using a pick on a tackle given how strongly they seemed to put over Brown

 

 

He did mention bringing in competition at RT.

 

And now some folks seem to think that means there's no other way to address that than the draft. And that's not true. FA continues right throughout the season.

 

They could do something in the draft. If they don't, there's still a lot they could do in FA. Or by trade.

 

Agreed that what he said about Brown was in fact very strong. He meant it, and all those saying, "Oh, he has to say that," are just plain wrong. He does not have to say that. Or anything close. There are a ton of ways to answer these questions without giving glowing endorsements.

[Commish]

Joe Marino just did a review of Spencer Brown, and he was fairly positive overall. No mention of slow feet as many people in this board have suggested - to the contrary.

 

A lot of the critique technique-wise is technical and over my head, but I gather Marino's principal reservation is that Brown's frame is too slender and that he lacks the core-strength necessary to play OT well.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dfx7J7_Gks&t=1122s

[PBF81]

What's Beane supposed too say, most of my picks haven't worked out, this job is difficult, I'm doing my best, be patient, ... trust the process.  

 

Let's face it, his Drafts have been questionable at best, his draft strategies equally so.  The results have been lackluster.  

 

He's got 6 picks this season, one late on each of the first 6 rounds, but he's got numerous holes to fill and positions to upgrade.  He's created that issue, no one else.  He's drafted the same positions in several spots for several years without any becoming better than average.  

 

He's not in a position to trade up, unless he wants to mortgage future Drafts.    

 

For his sake he'd better hope that several of his former picks "take the next step," and frankly, he'd better also hope that this year's crop of rookies produces an early ringer or two also, otherwise we're going to be having an entirely different conversation following the season.