TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Completed!!!

[Doc Brown]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills are now 6 picks away and I am down to:

 

1 WR - @Alphadawg7 took Downs who was my last true 2nd round receiver. Have a 2nd/3rd borderline guy still in play.

 

1 IOL - who will miss his entire rookie year with an ACL

 

0 DT - @NeverOutNick took Bresse.

 

2 EDGE 

 

1 LB

 

3 CB - I took Forbes

 

If we are starting from the premise that corner is off the list for the Bills given they have White, Elam, Jackson, Taron Johnson and Benford then it starts to look thin as a list of options. 

There's a TE that deserves consideration in my opinion that I could see the Bills taking late in the 2nd if he falls to us imo.  Drafting a DE in the 2nd round is what Beane loves to do though and fans may riot if that happens.  Also, should there be a a RB option in the poll?

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Equally play it the other way...  we take a LBer at #27.... you get here now it is thin at receiver in terms of 2nd round talent (though there probably is more depth at that spot into rounds 3 and 4 than there is at LB). It is why my ideal is trade back 5 or 6 spots from #27 and then up 9 or 10 spots from #59. If they ended up with say #33 and #48.... then they are in striking distance to address receiver and linebacker. 

 

I'd like them to pick OL early too but my gut instinct is they will not go OL in the first two rounds unless someone massively falls to them. 

In terms of specific OL, I think if either Anton Harrison or O’Cyrus Torrence are still on the board at 27 they could be in play for us at 27 rather than trading back, especially O’Cyrus (although I think he goes before our pick personally).  

 

I don’t think they will move up in the draft unless it’s for a skill position weapon.  I have my doubts they will do it for defense or an offensive lineman.   
 

Trading back obviously will come down to who is still on the board.  If there is only 1 or 2 priority targets left, Beane won’t trade back and risk not landing their guy.  Best case scenario is there are a few or more guys there still where Beane feels he can slide back a handful of spots and still get one.  That’s assuming someone wants to move up to our spot still too of course.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

There's a TE that deserves consideration in my opinion that I could see the Bills taking late in the 2nd if he falls to us imo.  Drafting a DE in the 2nd round is what Beane loves to do though and fans may riot if that happens.  Also, should there be a a RB option in the poll?

 

Interesting. I only have Kincaid and Mayer as 2nd round grades at Tight End. They are both gone and my next 3 who I have upper half of round 3 - LaPorta, Washington, Musgrave - are gone (and I suspect will be in the real draft too). I have one more round 3 tight end but he is a late 3rd and would be too rich for my tastes here. 

 

If I were to add my top tier of 3rd round grades (of those remaining at least) to my list I'd add:

 

1 RB

1 OG

1 EDGE

1 CB

2 S

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

In terms of specific OL, I think if either Anton Harrison or O’Cyrus Torrence are still on the board at 27 they could be in play for us at 27 rather than trading back, especially O’Cyrus (although I think he goes before our pick personally).  

 

I don’t think they will move up in the draft unless it’s for a skill position weapon.  I have my doubts they will do it for defense or an offensive lineman.   
 

Trading back obviously will come down to who is still on the board.  If there is only 1 or 2 priority targets left, Beane won’t trade back and risk not landing their guy.  Best case scenario is there are a few or more guys there still where Beane feels he can slide back a handful of spots and still get one.  That’s assuming someone wants to move up to our spot still too of course.

 

I just get the sense (and it is only my gut) that they are not going OL early. I have said before that I think Beane tells you more than he means to when he speaks. There are countless examples of that and Spencer Brown was the latest. I think they are more convinced on him than the fanbase is and I believe they are pretty wedded to him being their Right Tackle this season. 

 

I have been sceptical on Torrence both in that they have never taken a guard high and have tended to bargain bucket shop in FA and because I don't see the player as a very good fit at all for what Kromer runs. But they are having him for a top 30 visit so maybe I am off on that. I'd still be pretty shocked if he were the pick. 

 

My sense based on listening to every word Beane has said since the season ended is the three positions that are in play for the Bills in the first two rounds are "offensive weapon" (probably receiver but could be a pass catching tight end), linebacker and defensive line.

 

Now if a Paris Johnson or a Broderick Jones fell I am sure they'd pick them. I, like you, would be interested in Harrison if he is there at #27, just not getting that sense from the Bills. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have had my house renovated the first quarter of this year, but I have had to decorate myself as the budget was kinda blown. I feel like all I have done the last 3 or 4 weekends is paint. It is ***** harder than it looks as well. One day doing ceilings and my hamstrings were screaming at me the next 3 days from all the stretching. I basically couldn't walk!

For real man, we are doing the work ourselves too with so much of our budget going towards preparing for the baby.  It’s a lot of work, and painting takes a toll worse than you expect.
 

On top of all the painting we have been doing around our place moving rooms around to free up the room for the nursery, I also had to do some construction in there.  This last week I had to take out this weird illegal door that went out of what will be the nursery into this random outdoor closet that had another exterior door to it right next to it inside this outdoor storage closet.  
 

So first had to cut this stupid door and frame out, then frame the wall out and install sheet rock, insulation etc and then seal the exterior portion of the wall and stucco that up as well.  Then paint and finish both the exterior and interior portions of the wall.  
 

Got the first coat of interior paint done today, so tomorrow we will see if we need to do any touch up or second coat then I can install the base board trim and cleanup and finally be done with the construction side of the room and painting in general.
 

Then comes the fun of assembling all the furniture, crib, etc haha…not sure what part is worse, the construction and paint or assembling and installing all the furniture, shelves, etc 😂

 

Good news is the wife loves it, so it’s all worth it.  But my 46 year old knees and back are ready to be done haha.  

[Doc Brown]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Interesting. I only have Kincaid and Mayer as 2nd round grades at Tight End. They are both gone and my next 3 who I have upper half of round 3 - LaPorta, Washington, Musgrave - are gone (and I suspect will be in the real draft too). I have one more round 3 tight end but he is a late 3rd and would be too rich for my tastes here. 

Brugler came out with his annual draft rankings on The Athletic today and had Tucker Kraft as his TE5 and 51st overall.  Consensus big board has him at #70 right now.  Saw him mocked to the Bengals a few times at pick #60.  He might be a play for the Bills if he's available.  

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just get the sense (and it is only my gut) that they are not going OL early. I have said before that I think Beane tells you more than he means to when he speaks. There are countless examples of that and Spencer Brown was the latest. I think they are more convinced on him than the fanbase is and I believe they are pretty wedded to him being their Right Tackle this season. 

 

I have been sceptical on Torrence both in that they have never taken a guard high and have tended to bargain bucket shop in FA and because I don't see the player as a very good fit at all for what Kromer runs. But they are having him for a top 30 visit so maybe I am off on that. I'd still be pretty shocked if he were the pick. 

 

My sense based on listening to every word Beane has said since the season ended is the three positions that are in play for the Bills in the first two rounds are "offensive weapon" (probably receiver but could be a pass catching tight end), linebacker and defensive line.

 

Now if a Paris Johnson or a Broderick Jones fell I am sure they'd pick them. I, like you, would be interested in Harrison if he is there at #27, just not getting that sense from the Bills. 

I don’t disagree with any of that, I am certainly one that also feels Beane has been pretty reliable if you just listen to him.  And I totally agree that he has definitely talked confidently about Brown.

 

The one caveat I would add is that Beane has also talked Gabe Davis up with similar confidence and using injury to kind of excuse the underwhelming results this year like he did with Brown.  But there is confirmed interest in bringing in another premium WR where they have explored WR help on the market between at least inquiring about Hopkins and OBJ and shown interest on their pre-draft visits with some of the top guys in the draft.  
 

So hard to say where their allegiance lies come draft day in regards to Brown too.  And I went back and looked at as many pre-draft visit lists as I could find the past few years to see how it aligned with our draft picks.  And the last year we picked someone with our first pick in the draft that was listed as a pre draft visit was Ed Oliver.

 

Didnt find any lists showing AJE in 2020, Groot or even Boogie in 2021, and not Elam in 2022.  But post draft footage of the draft process and war room shows them having strong interest in these guys prior to the draft.

 

So could be they just try and keep their cards closer to the chest when picking later in the draft which could lead to a less expected choice like Anton at 27.

 

But I don’t disagree that an offensive weapon and possibly a LB with our first 2 picks seems to be the higher probability of how the draft goes.

[BillsFanForever19]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Equally play it the other way...  we take a LBer at #27.... you get here now it is thin at receiver in terms of 2nd round talent (though there probably is more depth at that spot into rounds 3 and 4 than there is at LB). It is why my ideal is trade back 5 or 6 spots from #27 and then up 9 or 10 spots from #59. If they ended up with say #33 and #48.... then they are in striking distance to address receiver and linebacker. 

 

I'd like them to pick OL early too but my gut instinct is they will not go OL in the first two rounds unless someone massively falls to them. 

 

Well I'm just talking about this particular situation where we've taken Addison at 27. I think those first 2 Rounds have to be WR and LB. And if he watched 2 MLB's go at 31 and 32 and Drew Sanders was still on the board - he wouldn't let him get to 44.

 

I do agree that OL help won't come until Round 3, at the earliest. My ideal situation would be 2 OL and 1 TE between Rounds 3 and 5.

 

I think he wants to bring in competition for Brown, but I don't see him drafting one higher than where he drafted Brown (in Round 3). I don't think he's ready to outright replace Brown, which is what he'd be doing taking an OT in Round 1 or 2.

Edited April 11, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Zerovoltz]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thanks gents!  Yeah it’s crazy having my first at 46, but super excited.  My wife wants 2, so gonna go for a second right after cuz even though she is young enough to wait (she’s 28) I don’t want to be popping kids out at like 50 😂
 

 

Wow!  I'm 46 and have 5, plus one granddaughter.  Congratulations!  Wife and I had discussed a couple times having ONE MORE!  but she's not 28...she's 42. and our youngest is 10.  Fatherhood is awesome!

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Brugler came out with his annual draft rankings on The Athletic today and had Tucker Kraft as his TE5 and 51st overall.  Consensus big board has him at #70 right now.  Saw him mocked to the Bengals a few times at pick #60.  He might be a play for the Bills if he's available.  

 

So he is my next Tight End (my TE6 overall). But I have him late 3rd. I don't see the upside there with him to make him a second round pick. 

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I don’t disagree with any of that, I am certainly one that also feels Beane has been pretty reliable if you just listen to him.  And I totally agree that he has definitely talked confidently about Brown.

 

The one caveat I would add is that Beane has also talked Gabe Davis up with similar confidence and using injury to kind of excuse the underwhelming results this year like he did with Brown.  But there is confirmed interest in bringing in another premium WR where they have explored WR help on the market between at least inquiring about Hopkins and OBJ and shown interest on their pre-draft visits with some of the top guys in the draft.  
 

So hard to say where their allegiance lies come draft day in regards to Brown too.  And I went back and looked at as many pre-draft visit lists as I could find the past few years to see how it aligned with our draft picks.  And the last year we picked someone with our first pick in the draft that was listed as a pre draft visit was Ed Oliver.

 

Didnt find any lists showing AJE in 2020, Groot or even Boogie in 2021, and not Elam in 2022.  But post draft footage of the draft process and war room shows them having strong interest in these guys prior to the draft.

 

So could be they just try and keep their cards closer to the chest when picking later in the draft which could lead to a less expected choice like Anton at 27.

 

But I don’t disagree that an offensive weapon and possibly a LB with our first 2 picks seems to be the higher probability of how the draft goes.

 

Groot was a "top 30" meeting. They happened differently that year because it was covid. They were all zooms but they 100% had one with Groot. And Elam was a top 30 visit last year. Was only reported in the final 48 hours before the draft. So the fact we haven't heard about someone being in doesn't mean they haven't been in. But I would strongly hedge towards whoever they select in round 1 having been a top 30 visit.

 

They have never taken a first rounder who wasn't.  

 

[Doc Brown]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So he is my next Tight End (my TE6 overall). But I have him late 3rd. I don't see the upside there with him to make him a second round pick. 

 

He's an upgrade of who we have on the roster at TE2 right now though so it should at least be considered given the Bills pick is around where the consensus ranking of him is.

[CNYfan]

At Mock Pick 54 the LA Chargers select Julius Brents CB Kansas State.  After providing Justin Herbert with TE Kincaid in the 1st the Chargers get to work on a very weak secondary by drafting a tall and rangy CB.   Julius Brents is a nice run defender and aggressive tackler.

 

@mannc with the Detroit Lions is on the clock.

 

@Virgil

Edited April 11, 2023 by CNYfan

[Yantha]

I'm down to a top 5:  

RT Dawand Jones, Ohio St.

LB Daiyan Henley, Washington St.

IOL Luke Wypler, Ohio St

DT Keanu Benton, Wisconsin

DT/NT Siaki Ika, Baylor <----extremely impressed how this guy can collapse the pocket.  

 

I'd be happy with any of these 5.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Yantha

[NeverOutNick]

21 minutes ago, Yantha said:

I'm down to a top 5:  

RT Dawand Jones, Ohio St.

LB Daiyan Henley, Washington St.

IOL Luke Wypler, Ohio St

DT Keanu Benton, Wisconsin

DT/NT Siaki Ika, Baylor

 

I'd be happy with any of these 5.

Yeah, and I have a feeling one of the D tackles is going to be gone this next picked by the lions. Even though Jones scares everyone because he’s just so big and doesn’t seem like a guy who will last in the NFL, I think end of the second round it’s worth the risk because production wise he’s done it, and hopefully he is a good right tackle for us if Spencer Brown doesn’t pan out and turns into a swing guy 

 

I am not in the camp that we need to overdraft a LB to fill a “need” as I think there are still plenty of free agents out there like Cunningham that can be had cheap after the draft and I also feel McD is going to get creative with having 3 starting caliber safeties. Rapp has some LB in him lol. But all that being said Henley is intriguing because he’s athletic, and I love that he used to play wide receiver in college that just brings something unique to his mindset that shows up on the field. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by NeverOutNick
LB

[MrEpsYtown]

Should the Bills draft Tanner McKee here and trade him for a haul of late second and third-round picks? Just grab him for now because somebody wants him? Is that how this works? 😜

[Yantha]

16 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Should the Bills draft Tanner McKee here and trade him for a haul of late second and third-round picks? Just grab him for now because somebody wants him? Is that how this works? 😜

 

Like Eli Manning drafted by the Chargers and immediately traded for a boatload of picks.

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

I'm down to a top 5:  

RT Dawand Jones, Ohio St.

LB Daiyan Henley, Washington St.

IOL Luke Wypler, Ohio St

DT Keanu Benton, Wisconsin

DT/NT Siaki Ika, Baylor <----extremely impressed how this guy can collapse the pocket.  

 

I'd be happy with any of these 5.

Ika would pair well with Spector!

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

I'm down to a top 5:  

RT Dawand Jones, Ohio St.

LB Daiyan Henley, Washington St.

IOL Luke Wypler, Ohio St

DT Keanu Benton, Wisconsin

DT/NT Siaki Ika, Baylor <----extremely impressed how this guy can collapse the pocket.  

 

I'd be happy with any of these 5.

Stop telling the other GMs who to pick.

[section122]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

I'm down to a top 5:  

RT Dawand Jones, Ohio St.

LB Daiyan Henley, Washington St.

IOL Luke Wypler, Ohio St

DT Keanu Benton, Wisconsin

DT/NT Siaki Ika, Baylor <----extremely impressed how this guy can collapse the pocket.  

 

I'd be happy with any of these 5.

 

I already lost out on downs trading down now i see my other guy on this list!

 

I should have just stayed put...

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I already lost out on downs trading down now i see my other guy on this list!

 

I should have just stayed put...

Luckily, this doesn’t matter and we’ll have another one, with a different team in a couple days 😜