Don Otreply Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 (edited) BPA is AWAYS a perceived need, is subjective, and varies from round to round, and GM to GM, there is no consensus, ever. Edited April 5, 2023 by Don Otreply Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 BPA is and should be a big thing before the draft , you should have a big board, rated strictly for talent from 1-300. you've had months to prepare it, on draft day there should be zero discussions on the order based on talent. before the draft, you should prepare for various scenarios of who you would pick at #27 & #59, etc........whether trading up, down or staying put based on talent AND need is the best way to go. hundreds of scenarios pre rehearsed. LUCK is when PREPARATION meets OPPURTUNITY 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Just now, papazoid said: BPA is and should be a big thing before the draft , you should have a big board, rated strictly for talent from 1-300. you've had months to prepare it, on draft day there should be zero discussions on the order based on talent. before the draft, you should prepare for various scenarios of who you would pick at #27 & #59, etc........whether trading up, down or staying put based on talent AND need is the best way to go. hundreds of scenarios pre rehearsed. LUCK is when PREPARATION meets OPPURTUNITY This is nonsense. There is no difference in talent between the 15th ranked player and the 50th. No difference between 100 and 150. And after 150 they are all the same. These guys can't predict who will be a great player anymore than anyone else. Diggs is the second best player on the team and the best WR in Bills history and he was a 5th round pick. Oliver is a serviceable starting DT and was a top 10 pick. Hardly what you want from a top 10 let alone first round pick. The examples are endless of busts and stars drafted early and late. Like Brad Pitt says in money ball, "You think you know, but you don't " 11 minutes ago, Don Otreply said: BPA is AWAYS a perceived need, is subjective, and varies from week to week, and GM to GM, there is no consensus, ever. Really, there was no consensus Bills needed a QB, MLB, DT, Edge, and CB when they drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, and Elam??? I think 99% of this board knew those positions were getting drafted. The only difference this year is there is not one glaring weakness. There are areas that need improvement in the WR group, OL, and obviously MLB. But the team has options some good some awful for those units that are already on the team or have been signed in FA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nosejob Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 10 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said: Pounding the table for Addison or best tackle/DT avail KANCEY!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 11 hours ago, Chaos said: I like this websites way of showing each teams realistic targets at each pick. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-draft-targets-2023?team=BUF Much more realistic way to think about it. These guys think the Bills are good at Tight End I guess. Or they forgot about the position? We at least do need a #2 tight end, even if it is a late round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airseven Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 BPA is out the window this year with so many holes and needs. BPA is the ideal, but the Bills don’t have that luxury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 9 hours ago, GunnerBill said: People misunderstand BPA. BPA can mean "who is the single highest grade on our board". But it rarely does. It only tends to when a team has a player sticking out. So when the Bills told you in 2021 that Basham was BPA by the time they got to that spot I believe he was sticking out and even though they'd already drafted one edge their view was that to leave him on the board when they had him considerably higher than everyone else left would have been foolish. Whenever you see a team draft a guy and think "they didn't need that player" the likelihood is he was their BPA. Kyle Hamilton to the Ravens last year is another example and, in fact, if there is a team that historically sticks to BPA better than most it is Baltimore. They picked Basham at the end of the 2nd …I wonder if they had a first round grade on him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: They picked Basham at the end of the 2nd …I wonder if they had a first round grade on him? They indicated after the draft that he was on their long list of considerations at the spot they took Groot. I forget the exact wording but it was basically they were not saying they would have taken him if Groot wasn't there but he was someone they had talked about in that spot. I think they had either a 1st or an early 2nd on him. I don't think Basham was a reach for need as some people have suggested. I think he was a terrible talent evaluation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: They indicated after the draft that he was on their long list of considerations at the spot they took Groot. I forget the exact wording but it was basically they were not saying they would have taken him if Groot wasn't there but he was someone they had talked about in that spot. I think they had either a 1st or an early 2nd on him. I don't think Basham was a reach for need as some people have suggested. I think he was a terrible talent evaluation. I hated that pick at the time… said so in the draft thread here .. I do recall Beane saying that he was “ sticking out” on their board… They got that one wrong… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said: This is nonsense. There is no difference in talent between the 15th ranked player and the 50th. No difference between 100 and 150. And after 150 they are all the same. These guys can't predict who will be a great player anymore than anyone else. Diggs is the second best player on the team and the best WR in Bills history and he was a 5th round pick. Oliver is a serviceable starting DT and was a top 10 pick. Hardly what you want from a top 10 let alone first round pick. The examples are endless of busts and stars drafted early and late. Like Brad Pitt says in money ball, "You think you know, but you don't " Really, there was no consensus Bills needed a QB, MLB, DT, Edge, and CB when they drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, and Elam??? I think 99% of this board knew those positions were getting drafted. The only difference this year is there is not one glaring weakness. There are areas that need improvement in the WR group, OL, and obviously MLB. But the team has options some good some awful for those units that are already on the team or have been signed in FA. There is no consensus from team to team and many time within a team, as to who the BPA is in the environment of the draft, BPA is always need driven, always. You are being obtuse, the Bills needed a quality QB for well over a decade pre Allen, the previous regimes inability to even give a good effort to get one and the results of that lackluster effort had become a running joke league wide, or had you not noticed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I hated that pick at the time… said so in the draft thread here .. I do recall Beane saying that he was “ sticking out” on their board… They got that one wrong… Me too. I just never saw how his skillset translated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I hated that pick at the time… said so in the draft thread here .. I do recall Beane saying that he was “ sticking out” on their board… They got that one wrong… I bet the board was saying "I'm your Dline Cody Ford." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: I bet the board was saying "I'm your Dline Cody Ford." A few people were supportive of the pick…..one guy who still posts here wanted to actually take him in the first … Of course most wanted Creed Humphrey who went a pick or two later to KC.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Just as the anticipated return of the swallows to San Juan Capistrano so is a thread about BPA and teams draft needs. Part of the reason is how web sites present their "Big Boards" to fans. They always have it listed from #1-#250 (or how ever far they go). This has been proven wrong by NFL teams and former GMs for years. Players are stacked by POSITION in levels that ultimately relates to draft rounds or parts of rounds, or in the case of later rounds, multiple rounds. Why some fans insist that is not true is a puzzlement to me. Here are 2 lengthy articles about how it's done. They are lengthy because the process that goes into it is complicated. The ESPN article even has some interesting symbols that teams use to identify specific areas of concern on players. I invite any fan who still believes in BPA (or fans in general who want to understand the process) to read the articles. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31209852/nfl-draft-board-building-101-secretive-yearlong-grind https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1953077-how-nfl-teams-put-together-a-big-board-for-the-nfl-draft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 C u on draft day boys. I’m over the non stop speculation. Im sure all of you have great ideas. Bottom line, I trust Beane. The GM of the year two years ago will figure it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScorpionZero Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 No way we take 2 CBs and 2 WRs. The draft had to be a balance between, talent, stats, level of competition, and need. With a pinch of gut feeling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 14 hours ago, Dubie54 said: I think it's 70% positional value/need and 30% BPA, which means we are picking the guy that we best feel fills a needed gap but if by some token of good fortune somebody drops to us that we can't ignore, we take 'em, with the understanding that we will need to fill that gap we missed on in a later round. My sense is that you enter a draft with a number of holes that need to be taken care of, dare say have to be filled, and you approach it from that standpoint. If we come out of the draft with a bunch of guys that were BPA at every point when we picked we might just come out of the draft not a whole lot better off because we still have glaring weaknesses that weren't addressed. I would argue the top 3 positions of need are: OL, LB, WR. Sure there are other positions of need and we will deal with those but I would argue those are the top 3. Now the key is in what order do you deal with that and that my friends is why BB is paid the big bucks and why is butt is on the line this year with how we come out of this draft. Excellent analysis. I'm not sure that the Bills are as freaked out over the o-line as many of us are. I agree that they will add to the o-line but it may happen in round 4 or later. We also should not be surprised if a DE is taken among the first three picks. I think the Bills are still concerned about their inability to get to the passer with a four man rush. I think they will be looking for a guy that is quick off the edge. None of the current incumbents (except Miller) are quick off the ball. McD was not a big blitz guy in Carolina, hasn't been one in Buffalo, and probably doesn't want to become one now. WR and LB are more widely viewed as obvious needs. With the free agent moves already made by Beane for WR, he may be looking at some day two guys that need some development. He may believe that the worthwhile guys will already be gone by pick 27. I just have a (sick) feeling that Campbell or Sanders are going to be their early target. It's almost like when many of us knew that Oliver wasn't going to get past the Bills at 9 overall. I didn't like the pick then and I still don't like it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, Chaos said: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-industry-consensus-big-board/ Pro Football Network has compiled an industry big board, consolidating the results of 25 of the major big boards created in the cottage industry that follows the draft. Premise 1) 25 big boards is a meaningfully proxy for how a team of scouts would grade out the players in the Draft Premise 2) Every team sticks to BPA at every draft spot Obvisouly neither premise 1 or premise 2 is gong to happen. In this scenario the Bills get an RB at pick 59. They would also get an RB at 91, so I made the one small adjustment to go to pick 92. But if these are proxies for people being slaves to board, this is the draft the Bills would have. I am not a fan. Luckily there is no chance we are going CB in round 1. Zach in the 2nd wouldn't surprise me though. Edited April 5, 2023 by Alphadawg7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 5, 2023 Author Share Posted April 5, 2023 I hope we can put together for ever the BPA myth and realize all teams include need and positional value in putting together their boards. ( regardless of my hopes in real life there is no way to do me a football myth) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Chaos said: I hope we can put together for ever the BPA myth and realize all teams include need and positional value in putting together their boards. ( regardless of my hopes in real life there is no way to do me a football myth) positional value = need. teams give their own personal value on positions due to need. but yea I agree... It has not changed on these boards for years. still won't. Bottom line, people have the right to think what they want... right, wrong or indifferent. is what it is you know I am on board with you on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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