Which would you rather have the Bills draft first, a better #2 TE or a better #2 WR?

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hard disagree with Knox ranking 23rd, that ranking does not reflect his stats.  Knox was 18th in targets received but still finished 14th in yards and 6th in TD's.  Not mention a pretty good blocker too.  

 

Kelce literally had 2.5x more targets than Knox...cant compete statistically when your competition is getting that many more targets than you.

I think the point you’re missing alpha is we need a real number 1 te which many of the really good teams have.   
 

I love Knox. Great dude who went through a ton this year. But I think we maxed out his production and it’s a great pick. But no team game plans for him. Great TEs can open up your offense in so many different ways. 
 

also, when the weather gets bad, nice to have the big guy to get easy completions. I kinda blows my mind why the bills hate TEs. What is the highest draft pick we have ever spent on a TE? 

[BillsFanForever19]

5 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

What if Beane/McD like Campbell better?   And the quote "the value isn't there for a MLB" gets thrown around a lot.  Edmunds just went for $18M/yr.  If the FO gets a starter of that quality, it seems like huge value - that's DHop money (and more than any WR2 commanded).

 

Can you see how flawed your "trade up from 59.....if MLB starts moving" quote is?  It could very well be too late at that point to get the one they want!

 

lb>WR2>TE2.  While a good WR is an enormous asset, getting the 4th or 5th WR entails a lot of risk (see Z Jones, K Benjamin).  The smart play is to buy a good WR (DHop) and draft a top 2 lb (Campbell).

 

You are assuming that a.) Beane is fixated on one single LB, Campbell in particular and b.) That Campbell is the same value as Edmunds was in the 2018 Draft (which is not true, Edmunds was considered a steal where we took him)

 

When I talk of value, i'm talking about where the LB prospects are ranked and expected to go in this Draft. Jack Campbell is universally considered to be a mid-2nd Round Pick. As are most of the MLB prospects. Outside of fans, Jack Campbell isn't seen in mocks near pick 27. He could very well be had at 59. Most of them don't even have a MLB selected in Round 1 at all and practically all of them don't have Campbell as the first to come off the board. I know we have a need to fill, but you don't reach for need. When I say move up if players at the position start going - I mean one or two of Drew Sanders, Trenton Simpson, Jack Campbell, Daiyan Henley, and Noah Sewell.

 

Brandon Beane, as most GM's picking late, don't fixate on one player at a position. Sure, they're going to say whoever they pick was "their guy". But Beane will have rankings of preference at every position. He'll let the board fall to him and if LB's start moving earlier than expected, he'll move up. Or maybe he'll move down from 27. But again, you don't reach for need. And Jack Campbell at 27 would be a big reach.

Edited April 4, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Buffalo Barbarian]

WR but more likely to get a better TE first.

 

Im praying Hopkins gets released and we sign him and then draft jack Campbell.

 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

Whoever the BPA is.

[Tipster19]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but this notion we are going TE in the first has no rhyme or reason to it.  

Thanks but none was taken. I better clarify the title, I never meant in the first round, what I was referring to was which of these 2 positions should the Bills draft first, meaning it doesn’t have to be a specific round. Sorry for the confusion.

[Adam727]

I'd rather the Bills draft a WR, but because of the strength of the TE class, I'd rather they draft a TE they have rated higher than reach for a WR if that's the way the draft falls.  

[DCofNC]

We still need a TE1 so there’s that.  WR2 would be nice too.  So long as Davis isn’t the second option, I don’t care.

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Thanks but none was taken. I better clarify the title, I never meant in the first round, what I was referring to was which of these 2 positions should the Bills draft first, meaning it doesn’t have to be a specific round. Sorry for the confusion.

All good, never the less there are a lot of people in various threads wanting us to take a TE in round 1 and I just don’t understand why.  
 

Im all for drafting a TE later in the draft, just not so early.  But to answer your question, I think I would go WR before TE, but I also don’t feel as much pressure to take a WR early as I really like the 2 signings we did and still am high on Shakir.  

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think the point you’re missing alpha is we need a real number 1 te which many of the really good teams have.   
 

I love Knox. Great dude who went through a ton this year. But I think we maxed out his production and it’s a great pick. But no team game plans for him. Great TEs can open up your offense in so many different ways. 
 

also, when the weather gets bad, nice to have the big guy to get easy completions. I kinda blows my mind why the bills hate TEs. What is the highest draft pick we have ever spent on a TE? 

I think the issue with Knox is not his ability, he’s actually quite physically gifted.  It’s more what you said after, we just aren’t using our TE the way others are in terms of a primary weapon.  Knox only had 65 targets last year, yet was 6th in TDs.  For comparison Kelce has 2.5X more targets.  Knox also led out team in catch %.  But we just don’t feature the TE position.  
 

Im not saying Knox can be Kelce, but he would break 1000 yards if we actually threw him the ball like a primary target and would easily have double digit TDs every year.  

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think the issue with Knox is not his ability, he’s actually quite physically gifted.  It’s more what you said after, we just aren’t using our TE the way others are in terms of a primary weapon.  Knox only had 65 targets last year, yet was 6th in TDs.  For comparison Kelce has 2.5X more targets.  Knox also led out team in catch %.  But we just don’t feature the TE position.  
 

Im not saying Knox can be Kelce, but he would break 1000 yards if we actually threw him the ball like a primary target and would easily have double digit TDs every year.  

 

And I will repeat what I have said elsewhere, the one part of the field where the Bills treat him as a top tight end - the redzone - he performs like a top TE. 

 

In the past two years 6th among TEs in redzone targets, 5th in receptions, 3rd in touchdowns.

 

And that part of the field you do see teams game plan for him. He sees some corner coverage in that part of the field because teams know he is a threat. If the Bills uses him more between the 20s it would pose defenses a different question and they'd have to start adjusting. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And I will repeat what I have said elsewhere, the one part of the field where the Bills treat him as a top tight end - the redzone - he performs like a top TE. 

 

In the past two years 6th among TEs in redzone targets, 5th in receptions, 3rd in touchdowns.

 

And that part of the field you do see teams game plan for him. He sees some corner coverage in that part of the field because teams know he is a threat. If the Bills uses him more between the 20s it would pose defenses a different question and they'd have to start adjusting. 

The offense seems to move pretty well between the twenties. Fewest punts in the league.  it’s not clear Knox needs to be more involved in that aspect. It’s not broken (exception of to this rule is a possible small reduction in wearing Josh Allen out).
 

The issue for the entire team is the same, translating all of this brilliant regular season success into playoff wins.  In the 2022 playoffs Knox was the rare exception to the rule. He had a fine game against the Bengals 5 rec on 7 targets for 65 yards.  His past playoff record is fine as well.  Knox is fine. 

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The offense seems to move pretty well between the twenties. Fewest punts in the league.  it’s not clear Knox needs to be more involved in that aspect. It’s not broken (exception of to this rule is a possible small reduction in wearing Josh Allen out).
 

The issue for the entire team is the same, translating all of this brilliant regular season success into playoff wins.  In the 2022 playoffs Knox was the rare exception to the rule. He had a fine game against the Bengals 5 rec on 7 targets for 65 yards.  His past playoff record is fine as well.  Knox is fine. 

 

It was first half of the year. Less so second half of the year when we became more of a station to station offense.

[Einstein's Dog]

16 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You are assuming that a.) Beane is fixated on one single LB, Campbell in particular and b.) That Campbell is the same value as Edmunds was in the 2018 Draft (which is not true, Edmunds was considered a steal where we took him)

 

When I talk of value, i'm talking about where the LB prospects are ranked and expected to go in this Draft. Jack Campbell is universally considered to be a mid-2nd Round Pick. As are most of the MLB prospects. Outside of fans, Jack Campbell isn't seen in mocks near pick 27. He could very well be had at 59. Most of them don't even have a MLB selected in Round 1 at all and practically all of them don't have Campbell as the first to come off the board. I know we have a need to fill, but you don't reach for need. When I say move up if players at the position start going - I mean one or two of Drew Sanders, Trenton Simpson, Jack Campbell, Daiyan Henley, and Noah Sewell.

 

Brandon Beane, as most GM's picking late, don't fixate on one player at a position. Sure, they're going to say whoever they pick was "their guy". But Beane will have rankings of preference at every position. He'll let the board fall to him and if LB's start moving earlier than expected, he'll move up. Or maybe he'll move down from 27. But again, you don't reach for need. And Jack Campbell at 27 would be a big reach.

Your idea of value is based on an estimate of where you think people will be drafted.  You think Campbell or Sanders would be a reach in the first because some people feel they wouldn't be drafted until later.  They don't know.

 

What we do know is that our last mlb got $18M.  If we can replace his production with a draft pick, that seems like excellent value.  You seem to feel that Henley or Sewell are at the same level, as Sanders/Campbell.  If the FO feels the same, maybe they will wait.  I doubt it though.  Seems like the FO may have a shot at one of the top 2 and I think they'll take it.

 

As for the OP, taking a top 2 mlb is much more likely to provide a value to our team of over $10M, than any of the WRs available or TEs.

[Bills Bud]

Both tbh. Knox and Davis are average

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And I will repeat what I have said elsewhere, the one part of the field where the Bills treat him as a top tight end - the redzone - he performs like a top TE. 

 

In the past two years 6th among TEs in redzone targets, 5th in receptions, 3rd in touchdowns.

 

And that part of the field you do see teams game plan for him. He sees some corner coverage in that part of the field because teams know he is a threat. If the Bills uses him more between the 20s it would pose defenses a different question and they'd have to start adjusting. 

 

Agreed, and I will add that through the first 13 games of the season last year, Dorsey still wasn't using him enough, not even in the redzone where he only had 2 TD's thus far.  Then down the stretch, Knox was finally prioritized more in the redzone and it resulted in 4 TD's over the final 4 games.   

 

This was something I was incredibly frustrated with Dorsey about last season...his use of personnel.  Knox was coming off a season where he had double digit TD's, just signed a big extension, and our receivers were not doing enough to help Josh.  For him to not get Knox more involved in the passing game made no sense at all.  And of course Dorsey also was failing to get guys like Cook, Hines, and Shakir more involved in the pass game as well despite the need to get Josh more weapons on the field to throw to with some of the struggles going on at WR.  

 

I really hope they learned that they need to incorporate Knox more into our passing attack, and certainly needs to be a key player in the redzone all year.  Just getting him a little more involved throughout the season would easily make him a perennial 800+ yard and 10+ TD player.  

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed, and I will add that through the first 13 games of the season last year, Dorsey still wasn't using him enough, not even in the redzone where he only had 2 TD's thus far.  Then down the stretch, Knox was finally prioritized more in the redzone and it resulted in 4 TD's over the final 4 games.   

 

This was something I was incredibly frustrated with Dorsey about last season...his use of personnel.  Knox was coming off a season where he had double digit TD's, just signed a big extension, and our receivers were not doing enough to help Josh.  For him to not get Knox more involved in the passing game made no sense at all.  And of course Dorsey also was failing to get guys like Cook, Hines, and Shakir more involved in the pass game as well despite the need to get Josh more weapons on the field to throw to with some of the struggles going on at WR.  

 

I really hope they learned that they need to incorporate Knox more into our passing attack, and certainly needs to be a key player in the redzone all year.  Just getting him a little more involved throughout the season would easily make him a perennial 800+ yard and 10+ TD player.  

 

And McDermott was frustrated too. He alluded to it in pressers and there were multiple weeks where Knox would have designed plays in the first 15. Which suggest the HC badgering the OC all week about using him more.... the problem was as soon as the script was done they got away from him again.

[Alphadawg7]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And McDermott was frustrated too. He alluded to it in pressers and there were multiple weeks where Knox would have designed plays in the first 15. Which suggest the HC badgering the OC all week about using him more.... the problem was as soon as the script was done they got away from him again.

 

And this is why I am still concerned about Dorsey.  I get it was his first season as an OC, and he very well could prove to become a great OC.  But he isn't a great OC yet and is learning on the job.  And the idea we are putting our current Super Bowl window and the prime years of Allen in the hands of an inexperienced OC makes me nervous.  And while some things are understandable learning curves, using the personnel properly should not be one of them when he has been here this long and is so familiar with the roster.  

 

And it went beyond the use of Knox.  Not getting Cook involved in the run game earlier in the season was understandable with Singletary and even Moss still here.  But not getting Cook involved as a pass catcher was puzzling given they tried to sign McFlake from Washington in free agency, then signed Duke, and then used a 2nd rounder on Cook and all for the purpose of catching passes out of the backfield.  With Crowder hurt, and McKenzie being unreliable at the slot, it was also puzzling that Shakir wasn't getting more opportunities given he was showing quite a bit of poential in the limited ones he got.  Then we trade for Hines who I believe he only got him something like 10 total touches on the season even though a big reason we made the trade was to add another receiving weapon.  

 

So I am hoping this year is different and we make better use of the talent on the roster.  I think Beane had a sneaky good offseason so far on adding pieces to the offense and I am excited to see what else we add between now and camp, and how Dorsey and the offense comes together in camp.  

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

All good, never the less there are a lot of people in various threads wanting us to take a TE in round 1 and I just don’t understand why.  
 

Im all for drafting a TE later in the draft, just not so early.  But to answer your question, I think I would go WR before TE, but I also don’t feel as much pressure to take a WR early as I really like the 2 signings we did and still am high on Shakir.  

I think the issue with Knox is not his ability, he’s actually quite physically gifted.  It’s more what you said after, we just aren’t using our TE the way others are in terms of a primary weapon.  Knox only had 65 targets last year, yet was 6th in TDs.  For comparison Kelce has 2.5X more targets.  Knox also led out team in catch %.  But we just don’t feature the TE position.  
 

Im not saying Knox can be Kelce, but he would break 1000 yards if we actually threw him the ball like a primary target and would easily have double digit TDs every year.  

But you don’t think there’s a reason why he doesn’t get the ball more? Why he never scored a td and was a small part of a wide open passing attack in college (new to the position and other players are valid)? I just think he’s just a guy who is a low end starter and you can do better. Not the most glaring need on our team by far but why can’t the Bills ever have a dominant TE? Imagine in playoff games in January and having a Gronk type to get the ball to and bully d backs in nickel and dime coverages with run instead of a 5’7 150 lbs out there. 

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And this is why I am still concerned about Dorsey.  I get it was his first season as an OC, and he very well could prove to become a great OC.  But he isn't a great OC yet and is learning on the job.  And the idea we are putting our current Super Bowl window and the prime years of Allen in the hands of an inexperienced OC makes me nervous.  And while some things are understandable learning curves, using the personnel properly should not be one of them when he has been here this long and is so familiar with the roster.  

 

And it went beyond the use of Knox.  Not getting Cook involved in the run game earlier in the season was understandable with Singletary and even Moss still here.  But not getting Cook involved as a pass catcher was puzzling given they tried to sign McFlake from Washington in free agency, then signed Duke, and then used a 2nd rounder on Cook and all for the purpose of catching passes out of the backfield.  With Crowder hurt, and McKenzie being unreliable at the slot, it was also puzzling that Shakir wasn't getting more opportunities given he was showing quite a bit of poential in the limited ones he got.  Then we trade for Hines who I believe he only got him something like 10 total touches on the season even though a big reason we made the trade was to add another receiving weapon.  

 

So I am hoping this year is different and we make better use of the talent on the roster.  I think Beane had a sneaky good offseason so far on adding pieces to the offense and I am excited to see what else we add between now and camp, and how Dorsey and the offense comes together in camp.  

 

I tend to agree with your thoughts.  One thing I feel happened last year was Dorsey and Josh seemed to push the play more in line of what they

believed could work well (and a lot of it did) more than scheming to what the opposing D's weakness were.  The Bills O seemed to be pretty much

the same for a large part of the season.

 

I'm going to believe for now, that Dorsey is a very smart football man and has the tools to be great at what he does.  I do want to see more of "one play

setting up another" that I see from more seasoned OCs.  He is always described as "intense", and I hope he restrains that some and gets a little

more calculating.

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But you don’t think there’s a reason why he doesn’t get the ball more? Why he never scored a td and was a small part of a wide open passing attack in college (new to the position and other players are valid)? I just think he’s just a guy who is a low end starter and you can do better. Not the most glaring need on our team by far but why can’t the Bills ever have a dominant TE? Imagine in playoff games in January and having a Gronk type to get the ball to and bully d backs in nickel and dime coverages with run instead of a 5’7 150 lbs out there. 

 

I do think there is a reason, and it has nothing to do with Knox's ability to get the ball more.  It has everything to do with how the TE position is being used in our offenses under Daboll and Dorsey.  We are an offense that likes to push the ball down field, while at the same time having OL issues that struggle to hold protections long enough for routes to develop down field.  So Dorsey elected to use Knox more as a blocker to try and negate that.  

 

And you say a Gronk type player...others say a Kelce type player...I mean lets be real, those are 2 of the top 3 or 4 to ever do it at their positions in the history of the NFL, and some would argue they are the top 2.  You don't just find a top 5 player in NFL history when ever you want to.  

 

More importantly, its not like every team needs to find a Kelce or Gronk.  Knox is capable of being a top 5 TE in the NFL this year, but he can't produce like that if he is not given the targets to do so.  I mean look at San Francisco, I don't think anyone would disagree that Kittle is the 2nd best TE in football.  If they used Kittle the way KC uses Kelce, then Kittle's numbers would be as good or better than Kelce.  But they don't, they are a run first team and when Jimmy G was the QB he was a statue from the pocket, so they used Kittle a lot as an extra blocker.  When Purdy took over, Kittles numbers began exploding because Purdy had more mobility to buy time and giving the young QB another safety net like Kittle made more sense so he was used as a receiver a lot more.  And thankfully so as he was a big reason I won my fantasy championship after being mostly worthless while Jimmy G was QB.  

 

It is all about how a player is used.  If they committed to featuring and using Knox as a receiver more (and he leads the team in catch % too), he would easily have top 5 TE stats.  I mean Knox only had 65 targets this year despite having 15 TD's the last 2 seasons.  

[ColoradoBills]

I'm beginning to prepare myself for Beane being in a bad spot at #27.  A very good chance all his round 1 talent will be gone, and he won't find

a trade down partner.  He then will be stuck with reaching for a player.  It then could come down to a player in a position I don't favor and while

I will learn to live with that decision, this board will probably go ape-poop over it.

 

My greatest hope will be a CB that other teams have a 1st round grade on, and a need for, will want to trade up for at #27.

I hope, I hope.