Which would you rather have the Bills draft first, a better #2 TE or a better #2 WR?

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

What if Beane/McD like Campbell better?   And the quote "the value isn't there for a MLB" gets thrown around a lot.  Edmunds just went for $18M/yr.  If the FO gets a starter of that quality, it seems like huge value - that's DHop money (and more than any WR2 commanded).

 

Can you see how flawed your "trade up from 59.....if MLB starts moving" quote is?  It could very well be too late at that point to get the one they want!

 

lb>WR2>TE2.  While a good WR is an enormous asset, getting the 4th or 5th WR entails a lot of risk (see Z Jones, K Benjamin).  The smart play is to buy a good WR (DHop) and draft a top 2 lb (Campbell).

Edmund big pay day is in part because he is still very young.

[Simon Says]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Depends who's available at each position.

 

I'd prefer a WR2. But if there's a run on them and there isn't someone Beane liked and there's someone like Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer on the board - I'd be happy with it.

 

 

Unless Beane likes Drew Sanders and he's on the board still, the value isn't there at 27 for a MLB. Trade up from 59 for Edmunds replacement, if MLB starts moving before then. Shouldn't cost much in this Draft.

Wonder how far they MIGHT be able to move up and which picks would they have to trade away.

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

I think the better value is in the better #2 TE. It would help solidly the OL while providing help with the passing game. 

 

No disrespect, but this notion we are going TE in the first has no rhyme or reason to it.  

 

IMHO the odds are low that we are using our first round pick on a 2nd TE that Dorsey doesn't use.  We have a talented one we just signed to a big extension that Dorsey struggled to get involved in the passing game.  So now we are going to use a first round pick on a "blocking TE" that can easily be found in FA, later in the draft, or even as an UDFA?  Or we are going to draft another receiving TE for an offense that has not at any time with Daboll or Dorsey had a TE reach 600 yards in a pass happy offense?  

 

This whole notion that drafting another one somehow frees up Knox is silly.  Just improve the OL so we don't have to waste a first round pick on a blocker whose primary job isn't even to block.  If you want better pass protection so Knox can run more routes, then improve the OL by using the pick on OL and and get a backup TE elsewhere.  

 

I mean how many SB winners featured 2 TE's as part of the primary offensive attack?  I believe that answer is zero.  Not even the Pats did, they lost to the Giants with Hernandez and Gronk.  Now how many SB winners had strong offensive lines?  A lot.  

Edited April 4, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Donuts and Doritos]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Kelce type player? you kidding me? lol the Gronks and the Kelce's come once every 10 years or so.. the question is just stupid captain obvious, so I am bored, and I am going to see who bites type of question... WR... OBVIOUSLY lol

 

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

of course, but that’s like saying, let’s take the Randy Moss typewide receiver.

 

like any other position just because you take a tight end in the first round does not mean they are a can’t miss player. 
 

Hayden hurst now on his fourth team, and Mike Geseiki, the dolphins version of the bills Tremaine Edmunds, both come to mine as former first round tight ends.

 

If the bills do draft a tight end in the first round it would certainly mean a pretty drastic change in play calling and offensive philosophy. Which might not be a bad thing.

 

The point was, while most of us, myself included would take the WR, this draft reportedly has much better TE talent (best in a long time). & Given Beane's comments that he wants the best weapon regardless of position (he even used TE as his example), it may be that TE is the way to go given what's available. I want a WR, but if the better talent is a TE & they want to try running the NE Gronk/Hernandez offense, I'll be intrigued.

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, papazoid said:

BPA at either WR or TE....but i hope its TE.

 

TE  Rankings

#1 - Kelce KC

#2 - Kittle SF

#4 - Goedert Phi

 

#23 - Knox Buf

 

notice a trend ?....3 of the final 4 teams who played in Conference Championship games have a Top TE

 

TE is the biggest/hardest mismatch in coverage

 

TE is by far the weakest position group on Bills. the only group Beane hasn't added to this offseason.

 

 

 

 

 

Hard disagree with Knox ranking 23rd, that ranking does not reflect his stats.  Knox was 18th in targets received but still finished 14th in yards and 6th in TD's.  Not mention a pretty good blocker too.  

 

Kelce literally had 2.5x more targets than Knox...cant compete statistically when your competition is getting that many more targets than you.

[BigAl2526]

I think a better WR would make a bigger difference in the offense, but whether or not the value is there when the Bills pick is uncertain.  The WR would need to have inside/outside versatility, and to ones who are most likely to drop to the Bils are primarily slot guys.   Buffalo drafting either of those positions is probably less than  a 50/50 chance.  Offensive tackle and linebacker are in the mix too.  If the value is compelling, I wouldn't be too shocked if Buffalo went elsewhere, picking none of the above.  The only positions I'm pretty sure they're not picking at #27 are kicker, punter, interior offensive line and defensive back

[In Summary]

Re OP:  WR#2  

• Bills don't use a TE enough to spend significant assets on a second TE regardless of the draft value rankings.
• No clear answer if Diggs goes down for a few games.  (Concern for this year)
• No potential replacement for Diggs in the pipeline. (Concern for the future)

[strive_for_five_guy]

At pick 27, I think the TEs available to us will be more valuable than any WRs still left.  And I’m hoping that pick is Darnell Washington.  Would create matchup nightmares for our offense and help shore up the OL a little while we’re at it.

[nosejob]

55 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

 

Well, sounds good.  But it sounds more like hope than actual evidence that Dorsey and the Bills plan to change their ways and create a real, multidimensional NFL offense where the tight ends, the short passing game, and running game are seminal components.

 

Good point on Winslow and Shockey, and yes, it makes sense that Dorsey learned something from those great players in Miami. Did he also play with any high level running backs?

Far as I can tell....Clinton Portis  Willis McGahee   Frank Gore   Look up the 2001 roster, IT IS INSANE wow...

[starrymessenger]

If M. Mayer is still on the board (he won't be)  I take him before any of WRs in this draft. BPA. Immediate impact, 10-12 year starter.

[Simon Says]

11 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

I think the better value is in the better #2 TE. It would help solidly the OL while providing help with the passing game. 

So; you would bench one of the WR in favor of Kincaid, or Mayer? They certainly aren't replacing Knox. Think about what you are saying; you wouldn't use a slot WR? You would run 2TE / 2 WR sets?

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but this notion we are going TE in the first has no rhyme or reason to it.  

 

IMHO the odds are low that we are using our first round pick on a 2nd TE that Dorsey doesn't use.  We have a talented one we just signed to a big extension that Dorsey struggled to get involved in the passing game.  So now we are going to use a first round pick on a "blocking TE" that can easily be found in FA, later in the draft, or even as an UDFA?  Or we are going to draft another receiving TE for an offense that has not at any time with Daboll or Dorsey had a TE reach 600 yards in a pass happy offense?  

 

This whole notion that drafting another one somehow frees up Knox is silly.  Just improve the OL so we don't have to waste a first round pick on a blocker whose primary job isn't even to block.  If you want better pass protection so Knox can run more routes, then improve the OL by using the pick on OL and and get a backup TE elsewhere.  

 

I mean how many SB winners featured 2 TE's as part of the primary offensive attack?  I believe that answer is zero.  Not even the Pats did, they lost to the Giants with Hernandez and Gronk.  Now how many SB winners had strong offensive lines?  A lot.  

 

You use the word "primary" which could be a bit of a confusing word.  11 personnel is of course the primary but teams vary that quite a bit.

Chiefs use 12 32% and use 13 10%.  So multiple tight ends pushing half the time.

Bills use 12 8% and 13 0%.

 

These are 1st down stats.

 

I don't see the need for the Bills to draft a TE in the 1st round, but they could definitely use on in the 3rd or 4th.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-team-tendencies/

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by ColoradoBills

[Mister Defense]

32 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Far as I can tell....Clinton Portis  Willis McGahee   Frank Gore   Look up the 2001 roster, IT IS INSANE wow...

 

Thanks.

 

Wow is right; three very high caliber NFL running backs on one team, all pro bowl caliber players and one a certain Hall of Famer.

 

But it seems Dorsey learned very little about the value of a high quality running game even from his own seminal football experiences.  It will cost him his job this year, in my view, if he does not wake up...

 

It was so bad last year that Greg Cosell repeatedly said  that there was "no synchronicity" between the running and passing game of the Bills, and that the running game seemed to be more of an afterthought.  Extremely damning words by Cosell, someone who really knows his football.

 

Maybe we can remind Dorsey of the running backs he played with and how important they were to his own success? He clearly has forgotten this fact.

[Dr. Who]

32 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

If M. Mayer is still on the board (he won't be)  I take him before any of WRs in this draft. BPA. Immediate impact, 10-12 year starter.

It's just narrow thinking to exclude TE because Dorsey or the Bills don't use them. Add a player of exceptional ability and transform the way you do things. 

I've been making a similar argument for Kincaid, but he is not the blocker Mayer is. Regardless, this is a year where the caliber of TE is such that they very well may clearly be a tier above the available wide receivers at 27. An ordinary TE does not normally come into consideration that early, but that is not the calculation here.

[Alphadawg7]

26 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

You use the word "primary" which could be a bit of a confusing word.  11 personnel is of course the primary but teams vary that quite a bit.

Chiefs use 12 32% and use 13 10%.  So multiple tight ends pushing half the time.

Bills use 12 8% and 13 0%.

 

These are 1st down stats.

 

I don't see the need for the Bills to draft a TE in the 1st round, but they could definitely use on in the 3rd or 4th.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-team-tendencies/

 

Im not against getting one later, I’m specifically talking first round, and even 2nd round.  Invest in other areas that move the needle more early like OL, LB, or WR

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

 

The point was, while most of us, myself included would take the WR, this draft reportedly has much better TE talent (best in a long time). & Given Beane's comments that he wants the best weapon regardless of position (he even used TE as his example), it may be that TE is the way to go given what's available. I want a WR, but if the better talent is a TE & they want to try running the NE Gronk/Hernandez offense, I'll be intrigued.

they said the same exact thing in the Hockenson draft, same thing i heard in the Freiermuth draft not so long ago.... so yea.. 

[nosejob]

16 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Thanks.

 

Wow is right; three very high caliber NFL running backs on one team, all pro bowl caliber players and one a certain Hall of Famer.

 

But it seems Dorsey learned very little about the value of a high quality running game even from his own seminal football experiences.  It will cost him his job this year, in my view, if he does not wake up...

 

It was so bad last year that Greg Cosell repeatedly said  that there was "no synchronicity" between the running and passing game of the Bills, and that the running game seemed to be more of an afterthought.  Extremely damning words by Cosell, someone who really knows his football.

 

Maybe we can remind Dorsey of the running backs he played with and how important they were to his own success? He clearly has forgotten this fact.

Well I heard McD say he doesn't want Josh running so much.   I'm sure that conversation with Dorsey was had quite a while ago.

[ColoradoBills]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im not against getting one later, I’m specifically talking first round, and even 2nd round.  Invest in other areas that move the needle more early like OL, LB, or WR

 

Sorry, I missed that.  I agree with you about OL, LB and WR.

[LABILLBACKER]

We have a 53 million dollar TE who is forced to block way more than he should.

 

We have an inconsistent 4th year WR2 who doesn't always compliment Diggs.

 

If there is a dynamic wr that falls to 27 like JSN or Flowers/Addison, I'm going wr.  But if they're gone along with some tackles, then sure grab Washington. 

[NewEra]

Good ol tipster!