NFL draft rumors 2023

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

This is where I would Lean conservative this year.  Find a few guys with high floors who are pretty likely to be decent starters and then similar for decent backups later.

 

I think a swing for the fence and coming up empty puts them behind the teams they are competing against.  I may be too conservative here, but I think it’s warranted in this draft.

I don't want to waste the Josh Allen window. You can hedge against failure, but that doesn't always produce a better result. Seems when we try safe picks, we often get a dud anyway. I'm inclined to go for a difference maker if one is available even at some risk. If there is an option that involves high ceiling and less risk, great, but for offensive weapons, I want the player with the potential to scare the other team.

[Dr. Who]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think if one of these receivers ends up an NFL #1 it is Johnston. But if any ends up out of the league after his rookie contract it is also Johnston. 

 

He is WR3 for me. Addison and JSN are just better. 

I think Addison checks a lot of boxes and there is less risk than Johnston. If either drops, I am taking them even with the need at MLB. (I don't expect Beane to agree.) JSN probably is going to be the first WR chosen.

[bigK14094]

22 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Sounds like Marcel…😉

Beat me to this one.  Darius v2.0

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think Addison checks a lot of boxes and there is less risk than Johnston. If either drops, I am taking them even with the need at MLB. (I don't expect Beane to agree.) JSN probably is going to be the first WR chosen.

 

Agree I have come to the view that JSN is the first one off the board.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

It's a hard decision to make. One one hand, you get an extra RT...who could free up Knox and very well only be 20 Lbs away from being a good RT...or..

do you go with an offensive weapon?  Quinton Morris is a slippery dude that can catch. What do ya do?

For sure, I would not spend a first round pick on a TE expecting to move him to RT.  Only way you take Darnell Washington in the first is if you KNOW he is a dynamite blocker and can live with 30ish catches a year from him - that is probably his floor.  That would not warrant a second contract.  If you are betting on his upside as a receiver and counting on his blocking, then *maybe* you can consider him round 1.  I see the athletic skills, but he still looks awkward as a receiver.

 

 

[Chaos]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree I have come to the view that JSN is the first one off the board.

Texans take Stroud and JSN

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't want to waste the Josh Allen window. You can hedge against failure, but that doesn't always produce a better result. Seems when we try safe picks, we often get a dud anyway. I'm inclined to go for a difference maker if one is available even at some risk. If there is an option that involves high ceiling and less risk, great, but for offensive weapons, I want the player with the potential to scare the other team.

I think Mahomes Allen and Burrows are all as gifted as Tom Brady.  Brady scary weapons were Gronk and unheralded slot receivers.   Brady always had a good line in championship years. Oline is the key of the right guys are there.  Diggs KNox Davis and the new tiny WR will all be scary if Allen has time. 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Texans take Stroud and JSN

I think Mahomes Allen and Burrows are all as gifted as Tom Brady.  Brady scary weapons were Gronk and unheralded slot receivers.   Brady always had a good line in championship years. Oline is the key of the right guys are there.  Diggs KNox Davis and the new tiny WR will all be scary if Allen has time. 

I don't think it has to be made into an either/or. I've posted often enough how important building the oline is and all things equal, it is the most important for the reason you propose. I am doubtful a quality OT worthy of 27 is going to be available. I think there is a chance an offensive weapon could fall.

[nosejob]

17 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

For sure, I would not spend a first round pick on a TE expecting to move him to RT.  Only way you take Darnell Washington in the first is if you KNOW he is a dynamite blocker and can live with 30ish catches a year from him - that is probably his floor.  That would not warrant a second contract.  If you are betting on his upside as a receiver and counting on his blocking, then *maybe* you can consider him round 1.  I see the athletic skills, but he still looks awkward as a receiver.

 

 

Didn;t think of that.

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think if one of these receivers ends up an NFL #1 it is Johnston. But if any ends up out of the league after his rookie contract it is also Johnston. 

 

He is WR3 for me. Addison and JSN are just better. 

 

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

This is where I would Lean conservative this year.  Find a few guys with high floors who are pretty likely to be decent starters and then similar for decent backups later.

 

I think a swing for the fence and coming up empty puts them behind the teams they are competing against.  I may be too conservative here, but I think it’s warranted in this draft.

I’m typically a measuarables and projection guy. Addison seems very meh to me. Good solid player. I do like JSN a lot. But I tend to skew the 6-4 guy who jumps out of the gym. I agree that he could wind up being the best receiver in the class or a massive bust. There isn’t much in between. 

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I’m typically a measuarables and projection guy. Addison seems very meh to me. Good solid player. I do like JSN a lot. But I tend to skew the 6-4 guy who jumps out of the gym. I agree that he could wind up being the best receiver in the class or a massive bust. There isn’t much in between. 

 

Yeah I don't get excited about Addison at all. 1st round picks should excite you with their traits and their ceiling. I guess with Addison you're hoping in a best case scenario he becomes a slightly slower version of Stefon Diggs? But even Diggs coming out was a 5th round prospect. With Addison I don't see 1st round traits, just a good all around player with little room to grow. Sort of like Robert Woods coming out. I'll take my chances with a higher ceiling/lower floor player in the 1st round. Johnston is a no brainer pick if he somehow falls to 27.

[Chaos]

57 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think it has to be made into an either/or. I've posted often enough how important building the oline is and all things equal, it is the most important for the reason you propose. I am doubtful a quality OT worthy of 27 is going to be available. I think there is a chance an offensive weapon could fall.

Hence my comment “if the right guys are there “

 

 

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

So, who are the great receivers that will be available when they pick?  There are some options, if you want a very small slot receiver- not much outside.

No one knows.  For all the prognostication, we know 2 things:

 

1. GMs invariably grade differently than media pundits, resulting in different draft selection order

2. GMs usually do their best to camoflage their actual intentions.  When their positional intentions are known they try to camoflage their board

 

Though I will say I seem to recall folks being pretty certain the Bills would draft a CB in the 1st last year, and that Elam would be their choice at CB

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

No one knows.  For all the prognostication, we know 2 things:

 

1. GMs invariably grade differently than media pundits, resulting in different draft selection order

2. GMs usually do their best to camoflage their actual intentions.  When their positional intentions are known they try to camoflage their board

 

Though I will say I seem to recall folks being pretty certain the Bills would draft a CB in the 1st last year, and that Elam would be their choice at CB

I agree with all of this, especially the point about the media not knowing how each team is grading/slotting the prospects.  I wish I was a scout, but I’m not. I read as much as I can about the prospects and I watch a little game tape - not nearly as much as the top draft guys here, but I’m watching as a long-time fan and I don’t know the technical aspects of each position.  With the caveat that I know the actual scouts have done a lot more work on these prospects than the media, I am just not seeing any receivers in this draft that I think are going to really become outstanding NFL players.  I like Flowers, Addison and Downs and I believe they will be good, not great players - all undersized, but with quickness, route running, and good hands.  I am not sold on Johnston and after that, the rest just seem like consolation prizes.  A few of those consolation prizes might turn into decent starters or good non-starting contributors, but which ones?  Hyatt at least has speed and solid hands, but can he be more than an occasional deep threat?

[DJB]

 

[HappyDays]

A lot of good rumors here, including one on the Bills:

 

Quote

Miller: The Buffalo Bills are another AFC title contender with eyes on moving up, based on what I've heard from sources around the league. The Bills will play the board and see who is falling, but with the No. 27 selection, it's very possible general manager Brandon Beane gets anxious and moves up for an interior offensive lineman or offensive skill player. That said, Buffalo has six total selections in this draft, so trading up very far wouldn't be possible without mortgaging future draft classes.

 

Quote

Could Hendon Hooker really go in Round 1?

Miller: Absolutely! With the top four quarterbacks expected to come off the board within the first 10 selections, the door is open for quarterback-needy teams to use a late-Round 1 pick on Hooker. That includes teams that could look to trade up from the second round to get him.

 

Quote

Name a prospect who will be drafted higher than we think.

 

Miller: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee. Hyatt has been a top-32 player for me since the 2022 season ended, but that's more of an outlier than a consensus take. I'm standing firm, though -- and I think Hyatt could be a top-25 selection. Wide receivers with high-end speed to stretch the field seemingly always rise on draft day, and Hyatt's production in the SEC should turn heads once coaches get involved in the process of stacking team boards. Hyatt averaged 18.9 yards per reception last year and scored 15 touchdowns en route to a Biletnikoff Award trophy for the nation's best receiver. He also couldn't be stopped by Nick Saban's Alabama defense; multiple scouts are still talking about his six catches for 207 yards and five touchdowns against the Crimson Tide.

 

Fowler: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia. Some scouts are giving off top-10 vibes for Smith, nothing that the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 17 could be his floor. The Detroit Lions, who have the sixth and 18th picks, have done their homework on Smith, who has improved his stock through the process. Fit will be key for Smith. Given he's 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, playing every down as a defensive end could wear him down. Some scouts say he's best served in a 3-4 defense as a speedy pass-rusher who can also drop into coverage.

 

Reid: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee. If there's one player who has aced the pre-draft process, it's Wright. He displayed an improved skill set at the Senior Bowl and then stood out at the combine. And now it seems Wright could be selected in the early teens. At 6-foot-5 and 333 pounds, he has experience at both guard and tackle, and many teams feel like he can play on either the right or left side. A run on offensive tackles could start as early as No. 7 overall with the Las Vegas Raiders, and Wright might be in the early stages of that run, perhaps inside the top 15.

"There wasn't an offensive tackle that went through a worse gauntlet of pass-rushers, and he passed the test with flying colors," a scout told me. "He limited [Alabama's Will Anderson Jr.] during their matchup, [LSU's BJ] Ojulari couldn't do anything against him, and he battled hard against [Clemson's Bryan] Bresee in the bowl game -- which most players would've opted out of anyway."

 

Quote

Name a Day 2 prospect who is getting buzz from scouts and evaluators.

 

Fowler: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU. Mobile, versatile offensive tackles usually get pushed up the board, and Freeland could be the latest case. One veteran scout had a good comp for him: Kolton Miller. "That checks out for me when I watch him," the scout said. Freeland has played a lot of football, starting 41 games for the Cougars over four seasons. At 6-foot-8 and 302 pounds, he also only allowed one sack in 2022. While he's not a lock to go in the second round, he's a threat to do so given how many teams need tackle help and prioritize the position.

 

Reid: Jartavius Martin, CB, Illinois. He's repeatedly mentioned when talking to scouts. "We thought he was going to stay hidden after he suffered the injury during the first day of practices at the Senior Bowl, but the combine completely changed that," an area scout said to me. Martin has spent time at both safety spots, outside corner and nickelback -- and he's a mainstay on special teams. His instincts stand out, as he trusts what he sees and isn't shy about attacking downhill once he diagnoses. Martin picked off three passes, broke up 12 more and forced a pair of fumbles last season. After a really good combine showing, it would be surprising if he made it out of the top 75 picks.

 

Miller: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss. The buzz started at the Senior Bowl, when scouts and coaches were talking about Mingo's build looking like A.J. Brown's. At 6-2 and 220 pounds, he does resemble Brown or Alshon Jeffery when watching him in person. And like those big-bodied wideouts, Mingo has the power to box out defenders and is a menace on breaking routes, helping him to 16.9 yards per catch last season. He ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine and elevated his status to Round 2 target. Teams such as the Dallas Cowboys, Bills and Chiefs all make sense for him at the end of the second round.

 

Quote

Name a Day 3 prospect who is getting buzz from scouts and evaluators.

 

Reid: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas. Even though he was No. 2 running back at Texas behind Bijan Robinson, Johnson caught the eye of scouts. He carried the ball only 93 times last season but averaged six yards per tote. And while he lacks an A-level trait, he's very well-rounded. Johnson is a natural tackle-breaker who runs with power and vision, and he has also contributed on special teams, which is repeatedly brought up by scouts on what separates him from the rest of a deep running back class. The most common projection for Johnson from people in the league is the third or fourth round.

 

Miller: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA. The quarterback class has a sizable drop-off in talent after Hendon Hooker, but scouts are starting to buzz about Thompson-Robinson, likely the QB6 in this class. DTR is a former top prep recruit who started 48 times in college and was highly productive as both a passer and runner, finishing 11th last season in QBR (82.1) and also rushing for 12 touchdowns. With 4.56 speed and experience in a pro-style system, Thompson-Robinson isn't the project many are expecting him to be in the NFL. An early Day 3 selection wouldn't surprise me.

 

Fowler: Scott Matlock, DT, Boise State. He was an All-Mountain West second-teamer who didn't participate in the combine, but he showed at his pro day that he can move at 6-foot-4 and 296 pounds, and scouts see value in the later rounds. "I like his athleticism, body type, lower-body strength and flexibility," a veteran scout said. "I think he will develop into a starter."

 

As a bonus, TCU running back Kendre Miller has had a quiet pre-draft process while recovering from an MCL injury, but he still has plenty of fans in NFL circles because of his toughness and explosion.

 

Quote

Who is rising based on his pro day workout?

 

Miller: Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson. First, Simpson impressed at the combine with a 4.43-second run in the 40-yard-dash. Then he wowed at his pro day workout on March 14. At 6-foot-3 and 234 pounds, Simpson ran a 4.22-second short shuttle and a 6.89-second three-cone drill. He also jumped an impressive 40.5 inches. The 2023 class isn't seen as particularly strong at linebacker, but Simpson is the best off-ball LB in the class and should be a top-40 selection.

 

Reid: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan. After only participating in the bench press at the combine (34 reps), Smith had a lot of questions to answer at the Wolverines' pro day on March 17. His numbers didn't reach some of the expectations of scouts, but he did show off his nimbleness, endurance and strength during the on-field workout portion of the day. In a down year for interior defensive linemen, Smith is a player that teams continue to value highly because of his ability to anchor at the point of attack and how he progressively improved over the course of last season. At 6-foot-3 and 323 pounds, he's a plugger in the middle of the defense. Scouts I've talked to say Smith is likely to go in the Nos. 25-31 range at the back end of the first round. All of the teams in that range have needs along the interior defensive front.

 

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

I mean this wouldn’t surprise me.  I can see Beane doing this for someone like Bijan, a WR, or OL if they get into a reasonable striking distance of cost to move up.  Packaging next years third and our first makes a lot of sense with the expected comp pick for Edmunds like the article discusses.  Just going to depend if someone they covet falls to a range where we can make a move like that.

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I mean this wouldn’t surprise me.  I can see Beane doing this for someone like Bijan, a WR, or OL if they get into a reasonable striking distance of cost to move up.  Packaging next years third and our first makes a lot of sense with the expected comp pick for Edmunds like the article discusses.  Just going to depend if someone they covet falls to a range where we can make a move like that.

Hearing this makes me think that they might actually be targeting an offensive player. I highly doubt they would move up for a defensive player this year. My guess is this could mean someone like JSN, skoronski, Johnston, or Robinson. 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, whorlnut said:

Hearing this makes me think that they might actually be targeting an offensive player. I highly doubt they would move up for a defensive player this year. My guess is this could mean someone like JSN, skoronski, Johnston, or Robinson. 

Yeah, I think it would certainly be for an offensive player to help Josh.  

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I mean this wouldn’t surprise me.  I can see Beane doing this for someone like Bijan, a WR, or OL if they get into a reasonable striking distance of cost to move up.  Packaging next years third and our first makes a lot of sense with the expected comp pick for Edmunds like the article discusses.  Just going to depend if someone they covet falls to a range where we can make a move like that.

Completely agree.  
 

With the rumors of us being open to a trade up, I have to think someone like Jack Campbell “may” be out of the picture in RD1. 

Being open to a trade up tells me the Bills want an impact player for Josh … which leads me to OL, WR or Bijan Robinson. 

[GunnerBill]

I just think someone would have to really fall to make it affordable.... I can see them maybe getting to similar range as last year.... low 20s...