NFL draft rumors 2023

[BADOLBILZ]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

11 now by my board.

 

 

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents.    There are quite a few of them in this draft.   It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys.   A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

And how many first round grades did you have in a strong draft year, like 2020?  I'm sorry...I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but when I hear guys say there are 11 or 12 prospects with first round grades, my immediate thought is that they need to adjust their grading system, especially if they have less than 25 first round grades even in a strong year...it becomes meaningless.    

 

All this info is searchable on the board. 19 and 5 borderline in 2020. 11 and 5 borderline this year. I am normally between 18 and 21 true 1sts and then 4 to 6 borderline guys. As a rule. The most true 1sts I have given was 23 in 2017. That is the best first round I have evaluated in the time I have been doing it. 2017 and 2018 consecutive were really strong classes.

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents.    There are quite a few of them in this draft.   It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys.   A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

 

That is possible, definitely it is. There are lots and lots of older prospects in this class who used the extra year of covid eligibility and as a result when you are consideeing ceilings you have to factor in that physically at 24 or 25 you are pretty much what you are. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

All this info is searchable on the board. 19 and 5 borderline in 2020. 11 and 5 borderline this year. I am normally between 18 and 21 true 1sts and then 4 to 6 borderline guys. As a rule. The most true 1sts I have given was 23 in 2017. That is the best first round I have evaluated in the time I have been doing it. 2017 and 2018 consecutive were really strong classes.

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

[Dr. Who]

I have a background in literature and philosophical theology. I can speak with some authority on at least some subjects that fall under those categories. Part of discerning intelligence is the capacity to recognize authoritative voices on matters outside one's expertise. There is a kind of corrosive egalitarianism that resists the notion that not all opinions are equal. In any event, everyone here has favorites and folks they always read because they find them worthwhile. When I read someone cavalierly impugning someone with a long reputation of helpful posts, I figure they are new and just don't know or they are dim and never will.

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

NFL GMs do the same thing. Prime example last season that Beane stated that Elam was last guy he had on his board with a 1st Round grade was Elam and why we traded up for him. 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

As my post came right after yours, just to be clear, my post is not aimed at you. 

[mannc]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

NFL GMs do the same thing. Prime example last season that Beane stated that Elam was last guy he had on his board with a 1st Round grade was Elam and why we traded up for him. 

Exactly…the term “first round grade” has become meaningless, at least as used by many mock drafters, scouts and GMs

[MrEpsYtown]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That low number is not for lack of 4 and 5 star HS talents.    There are quite a few of them in this draft.   It's possible that we are underrating some of the talent because Covid really impacted the development of some of these guys.   A lot of underachievers in the group for sure though.

 

Honestly, in a draft like this, grabbing those former 5 star recruits isn't the worst way to do business. Play the risk reward game. Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders, Gervon Dexter, Trenton Simpson, Wanya Morris, Zach Harrison, Justin Shorter...

 

Anyway here is an article with all the 5 star guys in this draft: 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-former-five-star-recruits-bryce-young-jalen-carter-will-anderson-jr

Edited April 24, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

Yeah.  You never hear there’s so many first round grades this draft you’ll get first round grade players in the 2nd round.  Lol. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

As my post came right after yours, just to be clear, my post is not aimed at you. 

Thanks, because I certainly did not intend to impugn GunnerBill’s opinion.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Again, no disrespect, but if the most "true" first round grades you're giving out is 23, then your grading system needs to be tweaked. If year after year you're giving out far less than 32 first round grades, then your definition of first round grade really means "top half of first round" grade.  You're not the only one who's guilty of this...there are plenty of draft curmudgeons who every year say that there are only 15 or 20 players with "first round grades"...  

 

Again, in a discussion yesterday with @Chaos a similar point was made. attaching "rounds" to it can potentially be confusing for some people. Personally I think it makes it simpler but don't call them rounds if in your mind you equate a round with 32 picks. Call them tiers. Call them clusters. Call them groups. Whatever you want. 

 

I am definitely not the only one. I was listening to the podcast Rick Speilman has been doing this year on my morning commute he said he "rarely" had more than 18 true first round grades in his 10 plus years with the Vikings. It is the way NFL teams work. I designed my grading system after talking to someone who has been in draft rooms. 

 

When Brandon Beane says he would trade back if his first round is cleared out he means the guys in the first tier on his board. Teams grade and then brigade by round which is what I do. But you could easily call it something else.

[mannc]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, in a discussion yesterday with @Chaos a similar point was made. attaching "rounds" to it can potentially be confusing for some people. Personally I think it makes it simpler but don't call them rounds if in your mind you equate a round with 32 picks. Call them tiers. Call them clusters. Call them groups. Whatever you want. 

 

I am definitely not the only one. I was listening to the podcast Rick Speilman has been doing this year on my morning commute he said he "rarely" had more than 18 true first round grades in his 10 plus years with the Vikings. It is the way NFL teams work. I designed my grading system after talking to someone who has been in draft rooms. 

 

When Brandon Beane says he would trade back if his first round is cleared out he means the guys in the first tier on his board. Teams grade and then brigade by round which is what I do. But you could easily call it something else.

I guess my problem is with the terminology, not the method or the practice itself.  If you're really giving out true "first round grades" then there should be 40 or more in really strong years and some number less than 32 in weak classes.  If you're always giving out far less than 32 "first round grades" then you're just being a curmudgeon😃 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I guess my problem is with the terminology, not the method or the practice itself.  If you're really giving out true "first round grades" then there should be 40 or more in really strong years and some number less than 32 in weak classes.  If you're always giving out far less than 32 "first round grades" then you're just being a curmudgeon😃 

I generally take curmudgeon as a term of approbation. Then again, I prefer cats to people.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Might I ask why not?

 

This was a few weeks ago....may have changed? 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

Does it matter if we’re concerned with his hand size?  

 

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He hasn't met with any teams. No thanks on Downs 

Lol.  That’s why you wouldn’t want him?  Ffs.  People are crazy

[CaptnCoke11]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

No one’s concerned about Addison’s smallish hands?

3.3% drop rate… so no i don’t think anyone is concerned 

[eball]

19 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

This was a few weeks ago....may have changed? 

 

LOL I was asking why you said "no thanks" on Downs, but apparently it's because he didn't have any "official visits."

 

I watched the kid play at UNC.  He has 1st round WR skills.  He's not a big guy, but he could dominate in the slot.

 

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

This was a few weeks ago....may have changed? 

 

I think its because Downs is a pretty clean prospect. No character questions, no injury history, teams might have a good grasp on who he is so its not necessary to bring him in. 

[HappyDays]

No way this is true... right? If you assume Robinson and Gibbs are both 1st round picks, this would mean only one WR drafted in the 1st.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by HappyDays

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

LOL I was asking why you said "no thanks" on Downs, but apparently it's because he didn't have any "official visits."

 

I watched the kid play at UNC.  He has 1st round WR skills.  He's not a big guy, but he could dominate in the slot.

 

I'd rather not take a slot only at 27, but I do think he's very skilled. One of those fellas I'd prefer to trade back to the top of the second to get. I won't be horribly upset if he's the pick.