NFL draft rumors 2023

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Outside of one example I can think of -- Rosen followed by Kyler Murray -- no one ever takes a QB the next year if the number two overall pick struggles (and Rosen was #10, a meaningful difference). Teams don't give up that easily--even though they often should. If they think the QBs outside of Young are weak, they shouldn't take one because then you're tied to that guy for longer than you think. It can simply prolong the agony. Basically, if you draft a guy at 2 and then give up on him right away, you're basically telling everyone that you're a moron and a bad judge of talent. That might actually be true, but it's human nature to not be willing to admit that. If Houston takes Stroud at 2, they aren't taking a QB early next season no matter how poorly he plays.  Anyway, isn't the QB class for next year supposed to be a lot better than this one? 

 

If I'm Houston and am not sold on Stroud or the other QBs, I try to trade down and get another first for next year so that they have the ammo to maneuver for a QB in 2024.

 

So I 100% try and trade down first for 2024 picks I should be clear that would be my preference. I just don't know if they are going to get a team to give up a 2024 1st rounder for a shot at CJ Stroud. Maybe a team loves Richardson, because that I could imagine a bit more (the falling in love with the toolsy guy). But if they can't find a trade partner I'd rather take CJ Stroud than a defensive player. Especially in this class. But I'd only do it after a conversation with my owner where I say: "look, I don't really know about this guy, but it's a bad class, we have two firsts, I can't find a way to punt one of those to next year I think we should take a shot. We will pour everything into developing him but if come next January in our heart of hearts we don't think he is it, I am going to try and draft another one and you need to be okay with that plan right now." I get that it is an unusual play. But if my first option (trade down and punt one of your 1sts to next year) isn't there then that is what I'd do. 

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

People say that every year, and then the NFL draft never disappoints on the trades or players taken.   The media drives out narratives on certain players (agent driven) and then when the authentic events happen, they call it silly season.

 

I was referring to the massive amount of misinformation that is put out by teams, agents, etc. this time of year. The media runs with it all and so many fans buy it all - for the moment at least. 

[Logic]

Regarding Beane's comment about being open to trading down and gaining more picks...

The one thing fans seem to consistently forget is that it takes two to tango. Every year I see "oh, we should just move down", as if it's that easy. But there has to be another team willing to move up.

More than likely, lots of other teams' talent evaluators have come to the same conclusion as Beane: there just aren't that many first round grades this year, relative to other years. As such, there probably isn't going to be a giant pool of teams just champing at the bit to trade up. Sure, all it takes is one, but...it's just not always as easy as some like to think to move where you want and when you want in a draft and receive fair value in return.

[CaptnCoke11]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Regarding Beane's comment about being open to trading down and gaining more picks...

The one thing fans seem to consistently forget is that it takes two to tango. Every year I see "oh, we should just move down", as if it's that easy. But there has to be another team willing to move up.

More than likely, lots of other teams' talent evaluators have come to the same conclusion as Beane: there just aren't that many first round grades this year, relative to other years. As such, there probably isn't going to be a giant pool of teams just champing at the bit to trade up. Sure, all it takes is one, but...it's just not always as easy as some like to think to move where you want and when you want in a draft and receive fair value in return.

It always drives me nuts people think you can just snap your fingers and trade down 

[No_Matter_What]

This is sort of OT here but a little thought I don't know where else to post - if Hamlin really is cleared for the season and Lawson indeed signs then in my count we have already 50 NFL quality level players on the roster - counting Boettger, Lawson, Dodson, Spector and Neal as bottom roster guys, and not counting guys like Cam Lewis, Brandin Bryant, Eli Ankou, Kingsley Jonathan, Zayne Andreson and Jared Mayden who were mostly on PS or probably belong there.

 

And if my math is correct, 3 players we are missing before draft (based on what we usually keep) are WR, TE and RB. Since 4th RB used to be Taiwan Jones, who was in fact just a ST player, it is possible that we use some other player in his ST role (player playing other position) and won't keep 4 RBs at all.

 

To sum it up, I'd be shocked if we didn't draft WR (not that it is anything new  ) and I guess that TE is also all but sure.

 

Also, I find it absolutely incredible that as it stands now Rapp is the only player on defense who wasn't on the roster last year. 

Edited April 18, 2023 by No_Matter_What

[BarleyNY]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Maybe, but I don't think so. I think the Panthers and the Texans both want Young. I was told Young was Houston's guy way before lying season started. Before Carolina moved up too. If he goes at #1 I think there is a chance that Houston either doesn't pick a QB at #2 or trades out. 

 

To trade out they would need someone willing to give them a 2024 first I think because they'd be punting the decision a year. Not sure anyone else is as desperate as the Panthers to do that. My advice would be take CJ Stroud at #2. You have a 2nd first this year to get someone at another position who can help. And if you are not sold on CJ just be open to taking another QB next year if he struggles. 

Appreciate the insight. I just don’t know how an NFL team takes a QB who is that small that high in the draft. As good as he was in college he looks like a low ceiling, high risk NFL prospect to me. Size and arm strength are going to be real problems for him.

[Warriorspikes51]

Chris Brown and Tasker were really talking up Bresee today on OBL as well

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Chris Brown and Tasker were really talking up Bresee today on OBL as well

Well, I like it better than LB. He's an athletic freak which is their type.

[Warriorspikes51]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, I like it better than LB. He's an athletic freak which is their type.

Beane also made a comment how we currently don’t have any DT’s on roster next year. 
 

But, I really REALLY do not want to draft defense again in the 1st. This team needs impactful offensive players badly

[Billz4ever]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

Regarding Beane's comment about being open to trading down and gaining more picks...

The one thing fans seem to consistently forget is that it takes two to tango. Every year I see "oh, we should just move down", as if it's that easy. But there has to be another team willing to move up.

More than likely, lots of other teams' talent evaluators have come to the same conclusion as Beane: there just aren't that many first round grades this year, relative to other years. As such, there probably isn't going to be a giant pool of teams just champing at the bit to trade up. Sure, all it takes is one, but...it's just not always as easy as some like to think to move where you want and when you want in a draft and receive fair value in return.

I put that in the same category as the people who want to do things like trade Oliver.  I'm not against the idea, but what teams are jumping at the chance to trade for an undersized DT who's been underperforming and is owed $11 million bucks this year?  They make it sound like it's a simple task and they don't know what Beane is waiting for.  SMH.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, I like it better than LB. He's an athletic freak which is their type.

I’d much rather we draft Bresee than Mazi Smith.  

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Chris Brown and Tasker were really talking up Bresee today on OBL as well

 

I've developed this fantasy in my head of the Bills drafting Bryan Bresee or Mazi Smith at pick 27, then immediately trading away Oliver and trading for DeAndre Hopkins. In one fell swoop we free up $10.7 million so that Hopkins becomes affordable and draft Oliver's replacement. Defense gets marginally worse but cheaper, and the offense gets a high impact player. I'd take that outcome right now if I could.

 

So far 20 of our top 30 visits have been reported. Mazi Smith is on that list, Bresee is not. I won't believe Bresee is a possible pick until I know he was a top 30 visit. But he fits a lot of traits McDermott would like - high athletic upside, former #1 college recruit, faced a ton of adversity over the past year (he suffered multiple injuries including a kidney infection, and his sister sadly died of brain cancer). I've been thinking in the back of my mind that Bresee could be the stealth pick no one sees coming. That's what Elam was last year and his top 30 visit wasn't reported until very close to the draft.

[Billz4ever]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’d much rather we draft Bresee than Mazi Smith.  

The funniest thing I see every year is how people go into the draft saying we need to draft this guy or that guy.  That mindset completely misses the reality that the draft is a very fluid situation depending on what other teams do and who's still on the board.

 

It's like all this talk about the Bills drafting Robinson.  They guy could literally go in the top 10 and then what? They've hitched their wagon to this idea and the thought that particular player may not even be available has never crossed their minds.  Beane must have 100 different contingency plans based on scenarios as they play out and also based on who they have first round grades for.  

 

I'm just going with the flow at this point until the picks happen and unless Beane does something incredibly dumb, not much point worrying too much about it now.

 

P.S. Breese is the better option over Smith.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Beane also made a comment how we currently don’t have any DT’s on roster next year. 
 

But, I really REALLY do not want to draft defense again in the 1st. This team needs impactful offensive players badly

I'm not crazy about Darnell Wright, but I would take him. Paris Johnson definitely gone, Broderick Jones as well. At WR, JSN, Addison, and Johnston who is risky are the only true first round considerations. I don't like JSN's hammy issues. I think Addison is gone early. Maybe Johnston slides. Hyatt is strictly a second rounder for me. I like Kincaid a lot. He'll go before 27, so where do you go for impactful offensive players in the first? Maybe they take John Michael Schmitz early. I would prefer Darnell Washington if they reach a bit.

 

Not even considering RB. Those folks are almost as irrational as the Campbellites.

[Billz4ever]

15 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Beane also made a comment how we currently don’t have any DT’s on roster next year. 
 

But, I really REALLY do not want to draft defense again in the 1st. This team needs impactful offensive players badly

Sucks we are in that position, but I can legit see it happening based on need.

[nbbillsfan]

11 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

It always drives me nuts people think you can just snap your fingers and trade down 

I also get incredibly annoyed when people criticize a pick and say “ if you were gonna take that guy, they should have traded down”. It’s like obviously they either didn’t have that option or they weren’t sure their guy would be there if they traded down. Too many people think all GM’s follow kipers draft board or something. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

The funniest thing I see every year is how people go into the draft saying we need to draft this guy or that guy.  That mindset completely misses the reality that the draft is a very fluid situation depending on what other teams do and who's still on the board.

 

It's like all this talk about the Bills drafting Robinson.  They guy could literally go in the top 10 and then what? They've hitched their wagon to this idea and the thought that particular player may not even be available has never crossed their minds.  Beane must have 100 different contingency plans based on scenarios as they play out and also based on who they have first round grades for.  

 

I'm just going with the flow at this point until the picks happen and unless Beane does something incredibly dumb, not much point worrying too much about it now.

 

P.S. Breese is the better option over Smith.

I just hope that we use our first pick on offense.  Trade up, trade down.  Give Josh a weapon or protection.  
 

if it’s on D, I pray it’s someone that can get to the QB.  Mazi hasn’t shown he can do that.  

[Billz4ever]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I just hope that we use our first pick on offense.  Trade up, trade down.  Give Josh a weapon or protection.  
 

if it’s on D, I pray it’s someone that can get to the QB.  Mazi hasn’t shown he can do that.  

I have this feeling that the FO has finally got it about giving Josh protection and weapons.  Does that mean they still don't take defense first round based on need? Maybe.  

 

I think this draft is deeper at OL than DL and not many WRs are really first round grades as it stands.

 

I'm not really advocating they pick DL like Breese in the first, but if they do, it's understandable.

 

Until the draft is over and we're done signing FAs, I'm far from freak out mode and saying how much Beane sucks, which so many people seem to want to do already.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Billz4ever

[ndirish1978]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've developed this fantasy in my head of the Bills drafting Bryan Bresee or Mazi Smith at pick 27, then immediately trading away Oliver and trading for DeAndre Hopkins. In one fell swoop we free up $10.7 million so that Hopkins becomes affordable and draft Oliver's replacement. Defense gets marginally worse but cheaper, and the offense gets a high impact player. I'd take that outcome right now if I could.

 

I'd rather take Keanu Benton in the 2nd.

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, Logic said:

Regarding Beane's comment about being open to trading down and gaining more picks...

The one thing fans seem to consistently forget is that it takes two to tango. Every year I see "oh, we should just move down", as if it's that easy. But there has to be another team willing to move up.

More than likely, lots of other teams' talent evaluators have come to the same conclusion as Beane: there just aren't that many first round grades this year, relative to other years. As such, there probably isn't going to be a giant pool of teams just champing at the bit to trade up. Sure, all it takes is one, but...it's just not always as easy as some like to think to move where you want and when you want in a draft and receive fair value in return.

 

Agree the best bet for a trade down is that someone falls that the Bills are just not interested in..... an edge rusher who looks like clearly more of a 3-4 guy (Nolan Smith I'm looking at you) or a Quarterback feel like the two possibilities.