NFL draft rumors 2023

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think you are projecting what you want.  They very well could be seeing what it might take to move up to get Campbell.  If D Sanders goes off the board at around 21, the FO could get very nervous.   This just happened last year with Elam.

 

While a lot of posters would love to see a move to get Q Johnston (myself included) which, by the way, is very different than the cringe worthy prospect of moving up for Bijan Robinson (which would make me violently ill), I don't think the FO would take such a risk. 

 

The FO has an excellent opportunity to get a good 4-5 year starting mlb for around $3M/yr.  Do it. 

All I can say is that the defense better be on lock during the playoffs if they trade up for a friggin LB. 
 

The reason many of us make the jump to offense is that none of these linebackers are projected to be gone by the time we draft, and most mocks don’t even have a LB going in RD1. 

[Einstein's Dog]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

All I can say is that the defense better be on lock during the playoffs if they trade up for a friggin LB. 
 

The reason many of us make the jump to offense is that none of these linebackers are projected to be gone by the time we draft, and most mocks don’t even have a LB going in RD1. 

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Seahawks move up to grab eventual Geno Smith replacement; three big mock trades in top 10 - CBSSports.com

 

I guess I didn't get the link, but Tom Fornelli of CBS sports has Campbell going at #27 today.

 

It's the finances that make it so logical.  Getting a WR who is WR3 being paid more than Gabe who is starting above him might be a problem   Getting an RB making more than our starting 2 ahead of him makes no sense.  Getting a TE2 for $3M is a waste.  Getting a starting mlb who is very good at $3M/yr for the next 4 years makes a lot of financial sense.

 

[blacklabel]

I see there is a Jonathan Mingo in the draft this year. Reminds me of the other Mingo, Barkevious. Anyone remember that guy? I was collecting cards back then and this dude haunted dang near every pack I opened that year. "Ooh, I see a shiny one coming up, and it's....oh, it's a one out of 25 Barkevious Mingo...wheeee."

[DCofNC]

On 4/3/2023 at 5:50 PM, Dr. Who said:

Two wrongs don't make a right. I think they are going to overdraft MLB.

That sounds more accurate, or maybe we take the draft an MLB back to back years in the third round only to find out both are mediocre after two years of trying and then move to drafting one in the second round that’s admittedly not a starter, but could work in certain packages.  We have a good start with the undersized/slow one on board already, now we just need a slow and steady thumper with no thump and we are on our way.

Edited April 7, 2023 by DCofNC

[MrEpsYtown]

41 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Ok.. …

 

As we saw last year from Beane… he will move up to get someone at a position of need … so it wouldn’t totally surprise..

 

I’m not aiming this at you, but I think some people here don’t really appreciate what it takes to move up in the first round… they seem to think the Bills can get from 27 up to the mid teens by throwing out a couple of Day 3 picks…

 

 

Yeah I think it is a toss up, with every year being a little different. With the lack top tier talent in the draft, after the first 15 picks or so we could zero movement with everyone wanting to trade down and no one wanting to trade up. Or we could see the opposite, a ton of movement at discount prices just because people just kind of move around to target specific guys.  
 

I don’t think anyone should ever make a crazy move up unless it is for a QB, so I agree I could see a modest move, but I think somewhere around the late teens is the max. Mid teens probably definitely costs that third. When the Chiefs moved from 29 to 21 last year it cost them a 3 and a 4, both very late in those rounds. So that’s probably the start of the conversation, likely going to take more, to get from 27 to like 18. 

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, BBFL said:

Are we believing the rumors of a possible 5 QBs in the top 20, maybe 15???

(Stroud, Young, Richardson, Levis & Hooker)

While I love Hooker(s) I really don’t buy it. Reminds me of the Malik Willis love last year. Hooker has really great upside, but he’s an older prospect who tore his ACL in late November. He isn’t going in the first. I think he goes in the 3rd 

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea he is the one that makes sense. He is the skillset that doesn't really exist again in the 2nd or 3rd round (even thought he is FAR from a perfect prospect). You can get lesser versions of Addison and JSN in rounds 2 and 3. And lesser version of the lineman (save for probably Paris Johnson). But if you want a size, speed, vertical threat outside receiver it is Johnston and that is it.

But can he catch well enough for his size and jumping ability to matter?  Maybe, maybe not.  He is a gamble hoping to find greatness for sure.  I’m hoping for a higher floor than what I think Johnston has, but I won’t say others are wrong to want to take a chance on him.

3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

This is my own rumor:  Beane hates letting extra pick burn in his pocket.  With him already putting the 3rd round comp pick into the equation next year, good chance he trades our 3rd next year to move up.  I would think moving up in round 2 could be ideal.  Should be worth at least ten spots.  Could get you into the top 50 again.

 

I think they could target Det at 48 because they have the most capital this year and would like to push some of that to next year.

I would take it, if they could get that deal, but a pick in next year’s draft Is usually valued as 1 round later, so next year’s likely late 3rd would be valued in trad this year as likely late 4th.  That might move you up 5is spots in the 2nd.

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I disagree. I think they need quality rather than quantity in the situation they are in. The past few years they have had to cut later draft picks who couldn’t make the roster. Also, our picks are late in the round.  Our 4th is really almost pretty much a 5th, especially with all the comp picks at the end of the third. And we have two picks within 7 picks of each other in that area. I would gladly give it up if it means I can get an actual first round graded player with upside like a Johnston. 

True, but they are now in a scenario where they are going to need to replace some high priced players who are getting older because of cap constraints, so I think they will need more young cheap players.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But can he catch well enough for his size and jumping ability to matter?  Maybe, maybe not.  He is a gamble hoping to find greatness for sure.  I’m hoping for a higher floor than what I think Johnston has, but I won’t say others are wrong to want to take a chance on him.

 

 

Me too. He wouldn't be my pick. But I think if they are trading up he kind of makes sense as a skillset not available elsewhere. And while he wouldn't be my pick I understand why folks are high on the upside.

[MrEpsYtown]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But can he catch well enough for his size and jumping ability to matter?  Maybe, maybe not.  He is a gamble hoping to find greatness for sure.  I’m hoping for a higher floor than what I think Johnston has, but I won’t say others are wrong to want to take a chance on him.

I would take it, if they could get that deal, but a pick in next year’s draft Is usually valued as 1 round later, so next year’s likely late 3rd would be valued in trad this year as likely late 4th.  That might move you up 5is spots in the 2nd.

It’s really DK Metcalf all over again…limited route tree, drops, but if he puts it together, watch out. But is he Kevin White or DK? No one knows at this point. I would bet on Johnston. 

[Back2Buff]

21 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 

I would take it, if they could get that deal, but a pick in next year’s draft Is usually valued as 1 round later, so next year’s likely late 3rd would be valued in trad this year as likely late 4th.  That might move you up 5is spots in the 2nd.

 

That's just not true and is just made up.  One person said that like 20 years ago and has been debunked.

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

True, but they are now in a scenario where they are going to need to replace some high priced players who are getting older because of cap constraints, so I think they will need more young cheap players.

I hear you, but I think they are a year or two away from that situation. They will have to replace the safeties in a year or two but have Rapp and possibly Benford and Hamlin. They need to add top level pass rushers at some point and more DL overall. They need a mike, but if they aren’t taking one in the first, I think it’s pick your flavor in the back end of the draft. I think they can splurge at the top of the draft because outside of the mike position they don’t have glaring needs imo. If they can get up for a top guy great, otherwise they should be trading down like and up like crazy targeting guys. They should try to come away with 5 players imo. 
 

Look at those late round picks from the last 3 years (rookie contract) no longer with the team:

2022: Araiza (I know special case), Tenuta
2021: Stevenson, Wildgoose, Anderson

2020: Fromm, Hodgins (Moss traded)

 

I’d rather seem them push for top talent than draft meh talent you can sign as UDFAs. 

 

On the current roster there are a couple of spots where a rookie can make the team…OL, LB, TE, DL

 

QB, RB, DB are going to be tough spots to make it imo. At WR, a guy has to get into the top 4 to really play so it’s Diggs, Davis, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield is the 5 special teams gunner guy…I guess my point is that you aren’t going to move the needle with a 4th round pick imo. We need to raise the ceiling, not the floor imo. 

 

[WyoAZBillfan]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Seahawks move up to grab eventual Geno Smith replacement; three big mock trades in top 10 - CBSSports.com

 

I guess I didn't get the link, but Tom Fornelli of CBS sports has Campbell going at #27 today.

 

It's the finances that make it so logical.  Getting a WR who is WR3 being paid more than Gabe who is starting above him might be a problem   Getting an RB making more than our starting 2 ahead of him makes no sense.  Getting a TE2 for $3M is a waste.  Getting a starting mlb who is very good at $3M/yr for the next 4 years makes a lot of financial sense.

 

Not that I disagree with what your saying, but based on 17 and 14’s displeasure of how the offense struggled towards the end. They have to do something to make the O more effective. D didn’t stop Cincinnati, yet the O did even less. 

[Alphadawg7]

Dallas at 26 is honestly an issue for the Bills.  Any of the offensive players the Bills could be targeting at 27 could easily go to Dallas at 26.  

 

Looking at a potential trade up partner...Giants are interesting at 25.  If we are targeting a WR or OL help, and someone they want gets to the Giants, then getting ahead of the Cowboys at 26 might be essential.  

 

From a cost point of view, our 4th rounder would be enough to make the move.  But it would also require Beane to be able to remain patient to wait until pick 25 to make a move for their guy.  Of course, this also assumes Dallas didn't move up on their own to keep this from happening.    

 

One alternative scenario is if we were trading up to get a WR, would they maybe do something like 27 and Davis to the Giants for 25 and pick 89?

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think you are projecting what you want.  They very well could be seeing what it might take to move up to get Campbell.  If D Sanders goes off the board at around 21, the FO could get very nervous.   This just happened last year with Elam.

 

While a lot of posters would love to see a move to get Q Johnston (myself included) which, by the way, is very different than the cringe worthy prospect of moving up for Bijan Robinson (which would make me violently ill), I don't think the FO would take such a risk. 

 

The FO has an excellent opportunity to get a good 4-5 year starting mlb for around $3M/yr.  Do it. 

Robinson is a great prospect.  There are never guarantees but he checks all the boxes Beane likes on and off the field.  That guy can play and would make the Bills offense harder to defend.  He’s an offensive weapon in run and pass game.   I doubt he goes low enough in the draft to even be in trade-up range though (20-25).

[HappyDays]

 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

That's just not true and is just made up.  One person said that like 20 years ago and has been debunked.

This is a very recent article that says what I suggested (future draft picks discounted roughly by a round per year they are in the future)  Of course, it isn’t a hard and fast rule, more a rule of thumb.  Every deal is different, I acknowledge that.  
 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/01/09/colts-2023-nfl-draft-what-will-it-cost-the-colts-to-move-up/69788880007/

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I hear you, but I think they are a year or two away from that situation. They will have to replace the safeties in a year or two but have Rapp and possibly Benford and Hamlin. They need to add top level pass rushers at some point and more DL overall. They need a mike, but if they aren’t taking one in the first, I think it’s pick your flavor in the back end of the draft. I think they can splurge at the top of the draft because outside of the mike position they don’t have glaring needs imo. If they can get up for a top guy great, otherwise they should be trading down like and up like crazy targeting guys. They should try to come away with 5 players imo. 
 

Look at those late round picks from the last 3 years (rookie contract) no longer with the team:

2022: Araiza (I know special case), Tenuta
2021: Stevenson, Wildgoose, Anderson

2020: Fromm, Hodgins (Moss traded)

 

I’d rather seem them push for top talent than draft meh talent you can sign as UDFAs. 

 

On the current roster there are a couple of spots where a rookie can make the team…OL, LB, TE, DL

 

QB, RB, DB are going to be tough spots to make it imo. At WR, a guy has to get into the top 4 to really play so it’s Diggs, Davis, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield is the 5 special teams gunner guy…I guess my point is that you aren’t going to move the needle with a 4th round pick imo. We need to raise the ceiling, not the floor imo. 

 

I hear you, but even good backups who play 30-40% of snaps have value.  Yes, starters are more valuable, but good rotational players or decent backups do have value beyond special teams.  It is a down year for OGs and OK for C, but maybe a 4th rounder on a C to maybe replace the expensive and aging Morse would be helpful.  
 

i don’t think it’s impossible to believe that a 4th round WR could see playing time.  I liked what I saw of Shakir, but neither he nor Harty are sure things.

 

I am not opposed to the idea of a trade up, but in this class you will want to be extra sure of who you are moving up for.

[Aussie Joe]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Dallas at 26 is honestly an issue for the Bills.  Any of the offensive players the Bills could be targeting at 27 could easily go to Dallas at 26.  

 

Looking at a potential trade up partner...Giants are interesting at 25.  If we are targeting a WR or OL help, and someone they want gets to the Giants, then getting ahead of the Cowboys at 26  

 

One alternative scenario is if we were trading up to get a WR, would they maybe do something like 27 and Davis to the Giants for 25 and pick 89?

No.. they will keep Davis

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, purple haze said:

Robinson is a great prospect.  There are never guarantees but he checks all the boxes Beane likes on and off the field.  That guy can play and would make the Bills offense harder to defend.  He’s an offensive weapon in run and pass game.   I doubt he goes low enough in the draft to even be in trade-up range though (20-25).

I agree that he is an outstanding RB prospect.  If they draft him, do you think he would get more than 15 touches a game and will they be productive behind an as-yet modest OL?  As much as I think Robinson could have a big impact, I’m not sure they would alter the offense enough to take advantage of his talent and I don’t think they are a top run blocking unit. 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Dallas at 26 is honestly an issue for the Bills.  Any of the offensive players the Bills could be targeting at 27 could easily go to Dallas at 26.  

 

Looking at a potential trade up partner...Giants are interesting at 25.  If we are targeting a WR or OL help, and someone they want gets to the Giants, then getting ahead of the Cowboys at 26 might be essential.  

 

From a cost point of view, our 4th rounder would be enough to make the move.  But it would also require Beane to be able to remain patient to wait until pick 25 to make a move for their guy.  Of course, this also assumes Dallas didn't move up on their own to keep this from happening.    

 

One alternative scenario is if we were trading up to get a WR, would they maybe do something like 27 and Davis to the Giants for 25 and pick 89?