Darnell Wright Tennessee OT

[GunnerBill]

In a normal year I think the chances of Wright sliding out of round 1 would be pretty high. We have been down this road before. Jawaan Taylor and Teven Jenkins spring to mind. If NFL teams reach a consensus that you can't play left tackle, you are at risk of not hearing your name called on day 1. To that extent I see where @Beck Water is coming from. 

 

But in 2019 when Taylor came out I had 25 either 1st round or 1st/2nd borderline grades. In 2021 when Jenkins I had 22 either 1st round or 1st/2nd borderline grades. The difference this year is I have 16. And while I am not saying I am the absolute authority on these matters the overwhelming majority of graders would agree that this class is considerably weaker at the top than 2019 or 2021. And that does reduce the chances IMO, so equally I see why @NewEra says no chance. 

[NewEra]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I appreciate the invitation, but I don't bet money.  Period.  Ever.  Never even bought a lottery ticket.

I'd be happy to make a "NewEra was correct" post if that pleases you.

I’m good.  I can’t help but try and make some money off of other people’s convictions.  

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

In a normal year I think the chances of Wright sliding out of round 1 would be pretty high. We have been down this road before. Jawaan Taylor and Teven Jenkins spring to mind. If NFL teams reach a consensus that you can't play left tackle, you are at risk of not hearing your name called on day 1. To that extent I see where @Beck Water is coming from. 

 

But in 2019 when Taylor came out I had 25 either 1st round or 1st/2nd borderline grades. In 2021 when Jenkins I had 22 either 1st round or 1st/2nd borderline grades. The difference this year is I have 16. And while I am not saying I am the absolute authority on these matters the overwhelming majority of graders would agree that this class is considerably weaker at the top than 2019 or 2021. And that does reduce the chances IMO, so equally I see why @NewEra says no chance. 

the weak class is compounded by the fact that the other tackle prospects are mostly also right tackles.  If there were some 2nd round prospects that were LTs OT could push wright out.  But I don’t see any except, maybe Bergeron. And he’s probably much better at RT or OG as well.  I think he goes early to mid 2nd based on the class 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m good.  I can’t help but try and make some money off of other people’s convictions.  

the weak class is compounded by the fact that the other tackle prospects are mostly also right tackles.  If there were some 2nd round prospects that were LTs OT could push wright out.  But I don’t see any except, maybe Bergeron. And he’s probably much better at RT or OG as well.  I think he goes early to mid 2nd based on the class 

 

Yea I think Bergeron is a RT or guard. I think Harrison could maybe play LT down the line but agree he is a RT only guy as a rookie too and even Dawand Jones (who I wouldn't take in a month of Sundays in round 1) is a RT only guy. 

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m good.  I can’t help but try and make some money off of other people’s convictions. 

 

Can't blame ya for trying.  Just making it clear I'll be glad to give you your "propers" if you're correct, but I don't bet $

 

I'm remembering people swearing that Creed Humphrey was a 1st round pick and in fact would be gone before #30, only to see him available at #61.

 

I take the whole draft board/mock draft thing with a healthy salt grinder.  Don't get me wrong, it's fun and I admire the work folks like GunnerBill put into it, but year after year, we see that outside the top-10 or so picks in the first round, teams value players quite a bit differently than fans and pundits.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Can't blame ya for trying.  Just making it clear I'll be glad to give you your "propers" if you're correct, but I don't bet $

 

I'm remembering people swearing that Creed Humphrey was a 1st round pick and in fact would be gone before #30, only to see him available at #61.

 

I take the whole draft board/mock draft thing with a healthy salt grinder.  Don't get me wrong, it's fun and I admire the work folks like GunnerBill put into it, but year after year, we see that outside the top-10 or so picks in the first round, teams value players quite a bit differently than fans and pundits.

I hear ya.  I’m not usually one to make guarantees as anything can happen, but I just don’t think it’s possible for Wright to fall to us considering the competition to be selected

[DCofNC]

I’d really rather draft a guy that projects as a Left Tackle.  Dawkins is average at best and is going to get paid like he’s elite.  I’ll take a pass on another 20M/yr contract.  One would HOPE, the prospect would take over the RT job for this year and slide to LT when Dawkins moves on.  Brown is a decent Swing Tackle, I really don’t see him moving inside, if anything it would seem playing from a deeper position would be more likely to aggravate his injury.  If that’s not the case, then his nasty side might be fun in the run game.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I’d really rather draft a guy that projects as a Left Tackle.  Dawkins is average at best and is going to get paid like he’s elite.  I’ll take a pass on another 20M/yr contract.  One would HOPE, the prospect would take over the RT job for this year and slide to LT when Dawkins moves on.  Brown is a decent Swing Tackle, I really don’t see him moving inside, if anything it would seem playing from a deeper position would be more likely to aggravate his injury.  If that’s not the case, then his nasty side might be fun in the run game.

The problem is who is even a possible candidate at 27 for potential LT? I'd love to follow your plan, but I don't see it.

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

The problem is who is even a possible candidate at 27 for potential LT? I'd love to follow your plan, but I don't see it.

Not all LTs are first round picks, nor am I saying we have to draft one there, but at some point you are going to need one or you are going to be paying Dawkins WAY too much on the back side of his career.  I’d be looking to retool the entire line essentially.  LT is huge, but Morse is also about done ( should already have his replacement here, instead be got a Boogie), and nobody else on the roster has proven to be more than replacement level.  I want a WR too, but the class sucks, and overall this draft is weak AF, if there is ever a year to go all in on the trenches, it’s now. 

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Not all LTs are first round picks, nor am I saying we have to draft one there, but at some point you are going to need one or you are going to be paying Dawkins WAY too much on the back side of his career.  I’d be looking to retool the entire line essentially.  LT is huge, but Morse is also about done ( should already have his replacement here, instead be got a Boogie), and nobody else on the roster has proven to be more than replacement level.  I want a WR too, but the class sucks, and overall this draft is weak AF, if there is ever a year to go all in on the trenches, it’s now. 

I agree entirely with the need to stock the Oline. I like Bergeron in the second. I sorta like Steen and a few other project OTs later on. I'm not really seeing a potential LT in the bunch. It's possible Bates is next C. If you want a Morse clone, apparently Joe Tippman is the fella. I think you have to take him at 59.

[DCofNC]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I agree entirely with the need to stock the Oline. I like Bergeron in the second. I sorta like Steen and a few other project OTs later on. I'm not really seeing a potential LT in the bunch. It's possible Bates is next C. If you want a Morse clone, apparently Joe Tippman is the fella. I think you have to take him at 59.

I don’t want a Morse clone at all.  This team needs more physical players in the trenches.  The finesse game is cute for the first half of the season, but the team resides in the ***** weather capital of the world, build a team to play in it.  Imagine a team that mauls you in the run game AND has Josh Allen to destroy your secondary.  The one dimensional offense has been the problem with the team for the last 3 years, it’s time to change it.

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I don’t want a Morse clone at all.  This team needs more physical players in the trenches.  The finesse game is cute for the first half of the season, but the team resides in the ***** weather capital of the world, build a team to play in it.  Imagine a team that mauls you in the run game AND has Josh Allen to destroy your secondary.  The one dimensional offense has been the problem with the team for the last 3 years, it’s time to change it.

I haven't really spent time looking at centers. One of the fellas who seems to be insightful about the oline said Tippmann was a young Morse. I think John Michael Schmitz is the type you are looking for. I think he goes pretty early second.

[LABILLBACKER]

Darnell has to be the pick @ 27. And if we have to move up a couple spots I'd do it. This kid is so much quicker and technically stronger than Spencer it's not funny. He could anchor the right side for 5 years. Some of Josh's  biggest hits including the Jets ulner injury happened from the RT.  Our OL has sucked for 5 years. Time to do the right thing.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Darnell has to be the pick @ 27. And if we have to move up a couple spots I'd do it. This kid is so much quicker and technically stronger than Spencer it's not funny. He could anchor the right side for 5 years. Some of Josh's  biggest hits including the Jets ulner injury happened from the RT.  Our OL has sucked for 5 years. Time to do the right thing.

I bet he goes between 10-20

[starrymessenger]

Probably only about half the first rounders in this draft deserve first round grades. DW would be a bona ride first rounder in any past draft I can think of. He will be long gone at 27. He projects as an elite RT. Don't know that Beane would be able to move up enough to get it done (assuming he's interested).

[Dan in Owego]

concerned he was a underachiever until this year, 5 star recruit out of high school. Biggest issue for me with the big fat boys both Defense and offense  what happens after the money. And to be clear i'm not accusing him, but iv'e been around the block a time or two lol. 

 

Also can't play left Tackle, big no no for me in the first, that's my take.

[starrymessenger]

On 4/15/2023 at 3:28 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

Gotcha. I suppose it could work out that way. I would hope that if they draft Wright he would beat Brown outright. 

You need have no fear of that imo. 

[Dan in Owego]

9 inch hands, i suppose he won't be holding much lol.

[LABILLBACKER]

20 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I bet he goes between 10-20

So if he's there at 20, what's it going cost to move 7 spots?

[CaptnCoke11]

He’ll be long gone by 27

[BarleyNY]

On 4/16/2023 at 11:00 AM, Beck Water said:

 

I understand that's sarcasm, but I think the chance that a guy who is being projected as a RT only in the NFL (despite starting a season at LT) and whose draft profile reads like this

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/darnell-wright/32005752-4915-3639-216c-bcc7afd9f5d5

has more of a chance to be there at the end of the first round than a guy whose draft profile reads like this

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jalen-carter/32004341-5265-6628-f264-d042e762bc39

 

I'm aware it's your opinion, I'm disputing the wisdom of an opinion with such absolute nature on a guy like Wright.

 

I spent a little time watching Wright because I was out of step with others who almost all see him as a first round graded prospect. I’m sticking with my second round grade. I have a few reasons for that, most of which are covered in the NFL.com link above. He’s got a lot to like - build, strength, explosion and that game tape against Anderson. His strength is impressive. He will toss a DE if he gets his hands on them. I see what people like about him.

 

He needs a fair bit of work on his technique. People who think he can step in at RT on day 1 are kidding themselves. He is a RT only IMO as he’s a better run blocker than in pass pro, where the technique issues are more apparent. Great lateral burst, but then his feet get slow and he lacks appropriate bend. He blocks so upright that I’m concerned about how he’ll be able to handle NFL DEs. He won’t have the strength advantage he has in college. That combo will be a problem if he doesn’t improve on at least one of those facets. Shedding a bit of bad weight might do the trick with the feet and he will get a lot of coaching on his technique so he might be good there. His issues with his lack of bend are more concerning.

 

The NFL.com prospect profile grades him at 6.40, which projects him to “be a good starter within two years”.  That’s how I see him too. In a year or two he should develop into a good RT. I don’t think there will be a lot of great choices at 27 (and Brown has been an issue at RT) so I see why Wright’s name keeps coming up. I just don’t think he would help the team in the short run and I don’t see him having a high probability of getting a second contract if he’s taken in the first round. Though he does have a chance to improve and do that.