BIGFOOTspaceman Posted April 9 Posted April 9 33 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying. Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick. And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either. So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team. For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer. But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl? Answer is quite frankly never has. The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return. Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so? Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts. Consider the year we got Diggs. That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane. Well...lets see how that worked out: Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years. What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3: Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR. Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season. Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb. Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins. Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins. Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs. Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group. We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team, 2021 we lost because of our defense 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty. The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson. Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct. But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field. Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd. Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle. I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones. To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do. I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years. And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management. IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less. But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team. That could be what puts us over the top even. And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too. For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA. I would typically just skim a post this long but.....really well done sir. Great take. I was all for packaging picks for a WR (out of frustration more than anything) but you have legitimately changed my mind. 1 Quote
dave mcbride Posted April 9 Posted April 9 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying. Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick. And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either. So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team. For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer. But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl? Answer is quite frankly never has. The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return. Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so? Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts. Consider the year we got Diggs. That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane. Well...lets see how that worked out: Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years. What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3: Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR. Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season. Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb. Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins. Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins. Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs. Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group. We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team, 2021 we lost because of our defense 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty. The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson. Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct. But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field. Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd. Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle. I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones. To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do. I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years. And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management. IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less. But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team. That could be what puts us over the top even. And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too. For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA. I did a deep dive on the non-Patriot winners of the SB going back to 2006. Lots of late first rounders and second rounders across the board, and no one in the top half of the first round except for Mike Evans. One BIG caveat: Atlanta should never have lost to NE in the Feb 2017 SB, and they had a top ten pick at WR (Julio Jones). Also, if Aaron Donald doesn't destroy the crappy o-lineman in front of him, Joe Burrow hits top ten pick Ja'maar Chase for the game winning TD because Ramsey fell down. But I digress. 2006: Indy - Harrison (1st, 18th overall), Reggie Wayne (30th overall) 2008: Pitt - Santonio Holmes (1st round, 25th overall), Hines Ward (3rd round) 2009: New Orleans - Robert Meacham (1st; 27th overall), Devery Henderson (2nd; 50th overall), Colsten (7th rounder) 2010: GB - Jordy Nelson (2nd; 36th overall); Greg Jennings (2nd, 52nd overall), Driver (seventh rounder), James Jones (3rd rounder) 2012: Baltimore - Torrey Smith (2nd, 58th overall) and a bunch of random free agents (e.g., Boldin) 2013: Seattle - Golden Tate (2nd, 60th overall), Doug Baldwin (undrafted), Jermaine Kearse (undrafted) 2015: Denver - Demariyus Thomas (1st, 22nd overall), Emmanuel Sanders (free agent) 2017: Philly - Nelson Agholor (1st, 20th overall), Alshon Jeffrey (FA), Torrey Smith (FA) 2019: KC - Tyreek Hill (5th rounder but obviously a top ten talent with off-field issues), Mecole Hardiman (2nd, 56th overall), Demarcus Robinson (4th), Sammy Watkins (FA) 2020: TB: Mike Evans (1st, 8th overall), Godwin (3rd), Scotty Miller (6th), Antonio Brown (FA) 2021: Rams - Van Jefferson (2nd, 50th overall), Cupp (3rd), Woods (FA), OBJ (FA) 2022: KC - Skyy Moore (2nd, 54th overall), Valdes-Scantling (FA), Juju (FA), Justin Watson (FA), Mecole Hardimon (2nd) 2023 KC - Rice (2nd, 55th overall), see 2022 KC (above) for the rest Anyway, food for thought. Edited April 9 by dave mcbride 2 1 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted April 9 Posted April 9 8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I did a deep dive on the non-Patriot winners of the SB going back to 2006. Lots of late first rounders and second rounders across the board, and no one in the top half of the first round except for Mike Evans. One BIG caveat: Atlanta should never have lost to NE in the Feb 2017 SB, and they had a top ten pick at WR (Julio Jones). Also, if Aaron Donald doesn't destroy the crappy o-lineman in front of him, Joe Burrow hits top ten pick Ja'maar Chase for the game winning TD because Ramsey fell down. But I digress. 2006: Indy - Harrison (1st, 18th overall), Reggie Wayne (30th overall) 2008: Pitt - Santonio Holmes (1st round, 25th overall), Hines Ward (3rd round) 2009: New Orleans - Robert Meacham (1st; 27th overall), Devery Henderson (2nd; 50th overall), Colsten (7th rounder) 2010: GB - Jordy Nelson (2nd; 36th overall); Greg Jennings (2nd, 52nd overall), Driver (seventh rounder), James Jones (3rd rounder) 2012: Baltimore - Torrey Smith (2nd, 58th overall) and a bunch of random free agents (e.g., Boldin) 2013: Seattle - Golden Tate (2nd, 60th overall), Doug Baldwin (undrafted), Jermaine Kearse (undrafted) 2015: Denver - Demariyus Thomas (1st, 22nd overall), Emmanuel Sanders (free agent) 2017: Philly - Nelson Agholor (1st, 20th overall), Alshon Jeffrey (FA), Torrey Smith (FA) 2019: KC - Tyreek Hill (5th rounder but obviously a top ten talent with off-field issues), Mecole Hardiman (2nd, 56th overall), Demarcus Robinson (4th), Sammy Watkins (FA) 2020: TB: Mike Evans (1st, 8th overall), Godwin (3rd), Scotty Miller (6th), Antonio Brown (FA) 2021: Rams - Van Jefferson (2nd, 50th overall), Cupp (3rd), Woods (FA), OBJ (FA) 2022: KC - Skyy Moore (2nd, 54th overall), Valdes-Scantling (FA), Juju (FA), Justin Watson (FA), Mecole Hardimon (2nd) 2023 KC - Rice (2nd, 55th overall), see 2022 KC (above) for the rest Anyway, food for thought. Nice work...and I think it only further shows that there is just no proven history that going all in to get a WR is the recipe. Granted, there were a couple near misses like Julio Jones who absolutely should have won...although the irony is not lost on me that the REASON they lost was because they kept THROWING the ball haha. Oh Kyle Shannahan what were you thinking. And when you go down this list, what stands out the most is that very few teams had an elite WR1, most had someone ranging from pretty good to pretty meh. Just further showing that maybe this board puts too much emphasis on getting that absolutely elite WR. And to be honest, it gets back to the original point by the OP...that maybe the best recipe is not that elite WR who commands a lot of targets and there is an effort to always get them the ball. History seems to show that maybe not having to force feed someone plays out better on the field where the QB spreads the ball around multiple guys and takes what the defense is giving them. 21 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said: I would typically just skim a post this long but.....really well done sir. Great take. I was all for packaging picks for a WR (out of frustration more than anything) but you have legitimately changed my mind. Ha, well thanks for the time to read it, I am glad you at least didn't feel like it was a waste of your time 3 Quote
njbuff Posted April 9 Posted April 9 On 4/2/2023 at 10:37 AM, Solomon Grundy said: This is debatable!! Gronk also made the Patriots offense go and was a major cog to Tom Brady's greatness Gronk was also a devastating blocker. Kelce, OF COURSE, is all time elite, but a healthy peak Gronk was better. 1 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted April 10 Posted April 10 7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying. Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick. And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either. So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team. For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer. But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl? Answer is quite frankly never has. The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return. Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so? Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts. Consider the year we got Diggs. That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane. Well...lets see how that worked out: Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years. What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3: Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR. Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season. Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb. Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins. Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins. Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs. Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group. We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team 2021 we lost because of our defense 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty. The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson. Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct. But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field. Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd. Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle. I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones. To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do. I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years. And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management. IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less. But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team. That could be what puts us over the top even. And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too. For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA. Yeah, I think the sample size is just too small on WR trade-ups by contenders. And also, since the NFL is QB driven there really isn't ANY particular position other than QB that provides big dividends to trade up for. And then there is the argument that tanking for the best QB has resulted in only 1 SB win for THAT team since Peyton Manning went #1 overall in 1998. I think you still want the highest ranked QB despite that, right? The only trade that matches the criteria of a big draft trade up by a contender was Julio Jones. And to put it in perspective, the Bills didn't draft anyone in round 1 who was AS GOOD as Julio Jones between time they selected Bruce Smith until they selected Josh Allen. Over 30 years. So Julio was an absolute grand slam of a pick for Atlanta. Cleveland whiffed on all 5 picks they received in that trade...........but the odds of anyone getting more value than Julio Jones out of those picks they dealt to Cleveland is really low. Less than 50% of 1st rounders even get their 5th year option picked up and closer to only 30% become "solid" NFL starters (per PFF). But even more sobering than those numbers, IMO, was the fact that the Bills missed the playoffs for 17 straight years.........and when they broke that drought there wasn't a Bills 1st or 2nd rounder from ANY of prior 16 years of Bills drafts on the field that day in Jacksonville. Just that same seasons picks. The lesson being that we often over-value 1st round picks by presuming them to become better, more impactful players than they usually are. They are lottery tickets to be used to get stud players at premium positions. Which kinda' supports trading up, even if it feels rich, if you have HOF type conviction on that player. Personally, I like the trade-back idea "on paper" but it's not like that idea always works either. You don't see trades like the Herschell Walker deal where the returns are so outlandish that it's hard to not win those trades. 6 1 Quote
Nextmanup Posted April 10 Posted April 10 On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said: That isn't a typo. Josh Allen is elite now. Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City. They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game. Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc. The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense. I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered. Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc. You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes. I'd agree with that. They don't need to be. Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either. Josh Freaking Allen is. Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now. I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine. I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros. Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go. It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game. Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc. If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again. There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly. Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled. ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT. ACTUALLY, IT IS A TYPO. "RECEIVERS" Einstein. Quote
Dillenger4 Posted April 10 Posted April 10 17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: KC drafted Rice with the hope that he'd be a WR1. You don't draft receivers in the first or second round to be role players unless they project to be extraordinary in a single, important aspect. Like as a deep threat. Rice was a rounded skillset type. The reason you draft any player in round one instead of subsequent rounds is because the hit rate is going to be higher with players deemed good enough to select in round 1. That's the way it works. The Chiefs took 3 swipes with day 2 picks and appear to have only hit on one(so far). The point is, if KC is your model you need an elite target(Kelce) and a WR1(Rice). The Bills have neither, at this point. With Diggs falling off last season the disparity in receiver quality was quite clear in the playoff matchup. The Chiefs offense was explosive and the Bills offense had to rely on executing smaller plays and burning clock. The Bills are in need of a talent infusion at WR. I am not against taking a great pass rusher if one were there but I am not hoping the Bills make a significant trade up at all, myself. They need multiple receivers and should try to come out of this draft with players from the other strong positions.......OL and CB. I agree with you 100%! Quote
BillsVet Posted April 10 Posted April 10 Buffalo hasn't traded a primary starter this near the draft since Jason Peters went to Philadelphia in 2009. It wasn't surprising they didn't subsequently adjust their board given the crew in charge back then. This time, Beane alluded to shopping Diggs for a while, which at the least was a decision to come out of their post-season review in late January/early February. And if that's the case, not a stretch to believe their draft board was built knowing that Diggs was going to be moved. Especially since they saw a draft class with strong WR talent. It would say a lot about this regime if they decided that their primary receiving options for Josh next season were Samuels, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and a RD2-3 rookie. Because as much as Diggs was declining, it wouldn't be that many degrees of separation from what Buffalo did at OT after trading Peters: relying on rookies/2nd year players and lesser talented options to make up for that deal. Their vision for this team has crystalized in the last couple seasons. And now, most people are seeing that what McD wants to do on offense is to limit Josh and focus on a by-committee offensive approach with decent skilled talent, but not elite. That's not going to work in the AFC. 2 1 Quote
sunshynman Posted April 10 Posted April 10 6 minutes ago, BillsVet said: Buffalo hasn't traded a primary starter this near the draft since Jason Peters went to Philadelphia in 2009. It wasn't surprising they didn't subsequently adjust their board given the crew in charge back then. This time, Beane alluded to shopping Diggs for a while, which at the least was a decision to come out of their post-season review in late January/early February. And if that's the case, not a stretch to believe their draft board was built knowing that Diggs was going to be moved. Especially since they saw a draft class with strong WR talent. It would say a lot about this regime if they decided that their primary receiving options for Josh next season were Samuels, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and a RD2-3 rookie. Because as much as Diggs was declining, it wouldn't be that many degrees of separation from what Buffalo did at OT after trading Peters: relying on rookies/2nd year players and lesser talented options to make up for that deal. Their vision for this team has crystalized in the last couple seasons. And now, most people are seeing that what McD wants to do on offense is to limit Josh and focus on a by-committee offensive approach with decent skilled talent, but not elite. That's not going to work in the AFC. He doesn't want to limit Josh, he will be hands off the O, he wants smarter decisions and longer drives. Josh will always take his shots. McD is fine with that. The problem is we didnt have the talent at WR to get sepration. Shakir is a very good (soon to be great) WR. He and Kincaid were are only real targets in the 2nd Half. With younger more talent at WR this year; the O will be more explosive. Diggs stopped being effective because Davis couldn't draw away coverage. Quote
BillsVet Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) 2 hours ago, sunshynman said: He doesn't want to limit Josh, he will be hands off the O, he wants smarter decisions and longer drives. Josh will always take his shots. McD is fine with that. The problem is we didnt have the talent at WR to get sepration. Shakir is a very good (soon to be great) WR. He and Kincaid were are only real targets in the 2nd Half. With younger more talent at WR this year; the O will be more explosive. Diggs stopped being effective because Davis couldn't draw away coverage. The run-pass ratio from Dorsey to Brady was much different because Buffalo just started running the ball more under Brady. This worked in the regular season, but only to a point. Didn't stop Brady from relying too much on Josh gaining yards on the ground like his predecessors resorted to by the end of the season and into the playoffs. If the idea is to take the ball out of Josh's hands more running it with the backs and/or have him run, this offense is limited. It's limited when you run out receivers who are short to intermediate types, can't track it downfield, and historically 10-12 ypc options. Defenses cheat. And in the current NFL, expecting to maintain 10+ play drives consistently is not a recipe for success. The difference in WR talent shows up more in the playoffs when scoring gets harder because you can't be that personnel-limited even with Josh. Edited April 10 by BillsVet Quote
muppy Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) from @Alphadawg7 This is exactly how I feel. DITTO. excellent. It is a mixed bag for me. #GAMBLE Yes well the NFL draft always is a gamble anyway. Quote For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA. Edited April 10 by muppy Quote
sunshynman Posted April 10 Posted April 10 2 hours ago, BillsVet said: The run-pass ratio from Dorsey to Brady was much different because Buffalo just started running the ball more under Brady. This worked in the regular season, but only to a point. Didn't stop Brady from relying too much on Josh gaining yards on the ground like his predecessors resorted to by the end of the season and into the playoffs. If the idea is to take the ball out of Josh's hands more running it with the backs and/or have him run, this offense is limited. It's limited when you run out receivers who are short to intermediate types, can't track it downfield, and historically 10-12 ypc options. Defenses cheat. And in the current NFL, expecting to maintain 10+ play drives consistently is not a recipe for success. The difference in WR talent shows up more in the playoffs when scoring gets harder because you can't be that personnel-limited even with Josh. There is a difference in limiting Josh and having him play less dangerously. In the long run the less shots Josh takes running the ball, the better. Dorsey didn't know how to call a running game. Which is why it wasn't working under him. We don't know what Brady's O will look like yet. But My guess is you see a lot more passing than he showed at the end of last year. And we will have better skilled players at the WR position to pull it off. Quote
Billl Posted April 10 Posted April 10 On 9/8/2023 at 6:14 AM, BuffaloBillyG said: Myth: BUSTED On 9/8/2023 at 7:42 AM, Forward Progress said: This may be the greatest thread bumping in the history of bumping threads. 🏆 On 11/20/2023 at 11:01 PM, HappyDays said: On 11/20/2023 at 11:09 PM, LabattBlue said: Hahahaha. I love it. 👍🏻 Quote
HappyDays Posted April 10 Posted April 10 4 hours ago, Billl said: So your opinion is that if the Bills entered the 2024 season as is, our passing offense would look better than last year? 1 1 Quote
Beck Water Posted April 11 Posted April 11 20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: But even more sobering than those numbers, IMO, was the fact that the Bills missed the playoffs for 17 straight years.........and when they broke that drought there wasn't a Bills 1st or 2nd rounder from ANY of prior 16 years of Bills drafts on the field that day in Jacksonville. Just that same seasons picks. I don't disagree with the overall point of your post, but it's worth noting that when the Bills broke the drought and only had one (1) 1st or 2nd rounder from prior drafts on the field (in fact, many players from any round prior drafts), it was in large part because Beane and McDermott cleaned house, arguably trading away guys who could play but who weren't "their kind of guys". Guys they swept out the door included Marcell Dareus (who was on the field for JAX), Reggie Ragland (played 3 years for KC, won a Superbowl with them), Ronald Darby (still playing, last season for BAL), Sammy Watkins (6 more seasons), Cyrus Kouandijo (2 seasons for DEN), Bobby Trees (still playing, won a SB with LAR), Stephon Gilmore (still playing) So if your point is, the Bills drafting was so horrid that none of their guys could play - while there was a long stretch of horrid picks like Aaron Maybin and Torrell Troup, there was also a fair bit of talent. The problem is, we either moved on from it for nothing (Gilmore, Bobby Trees, Andy Levitre), or just failed to develop it properly in what seems to have been a 'dysfunction junction' environment. (it's a bit of a nit, but Eric Wood, our 2009 1st round pick, was on the field for the JAX playoff 100% of the snaps. Shaq Lawson our 2016 1st round pick, and Cordy Glenn, our 2012 2nd round pick, were both on the team, but IR'd) 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted April 11 Posted April 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, Beck Water said: I don't disagree with the overall point of your post, but it's worth noting that when the Bills broke the drought and only had one (1) 1st or 2nd rounder from prior drafts on the field (in fact, many players from any round prior drafts), it was in large part because Beane and McDermott cleaned house, arguably trading away guys who could play but who weren't "their kind of guys". Guys they swept out the door included Marcell Dareus (who was on the field for JAX), Reggie Ragland (played 3 years for KC, won a Superbowl with them), Ronald Darby (still playing, last season for BAL), Sammy Watkins (6 more seasons), Cyrus Kouandijo (2 seasons for DEN), Bobby Trees (still playing, won a SB with LAR), Stephon Gilmore (still playing) So if your point is, the Bills drafting was so horrid that none of their guys could play - while there was a long stretch of horrid picks like Aaron Maybin and Torrell Troup, there was also a fair bit of talent. The problem is, we either moved on from it for nothing (Gilmore, Bobby Trees, Andy Levitre), or just failed to develop it properly in what seems to have been a 'dysfunction junction' environment. (it's a bit of a nit, but Eric Wood, our 2009 1st round pick, was on the field for the JAX playoff 100% of the snaps. Shaq Lawson our 2016 1st round pick, and Cordy Glenn, our 2012 2nd round pick, were both on the team, but IR'd) You are confused about the point. The Bills CLEARLY didn't draft "horrid" in rounds 1 and 2 during the drought. Criticize their roster construction but not so much the talent of the players. Marshawn Lynch is a borderline HOF'er. Steph Gilmore won NFLDPOY. Nate Clements was briefly the highest paid CB in the NFL. Aaron Schobel was a stud pass rusher. Dareus was an All Pro. Robert Woods was a star. Jairus Byrd was an All Pro. Andy Levitre got a huge second contract. Lee Evans was a excellent. Sammy Watkins got a massive second contract from the Chiefs. Willis McGahee rushed for nearly 10,000 yards. Even Lil' Donte Whitner played in 3 pro bowls. They picked enough good players in rounds 1 and 2. That wasn't the problem. All that draft capital expended and just 1 player(Wood) out of a whopping 38 1st and 2nd round opportunities(37 picks and the 1st traded for Bledsoe) over 17 drafts made a contribution remotely commensurate to the Bills investment in them in the season where they finally got back to the playoffs. Again..........the hit rate for any position in the first 2 rounds is much lower than the casual draft fan realizes. And still, even the minuscule amount the Bills had to show didn't even preclude them from being competitive enough to reach the playoffs. I think there are some clear do's and don'ts with early round picks but neither trading up nor trading back is proven as the smarter play. Doesn't really move the needle much financially either, which is a huge component in NFL decisions. The only argument for trading back is more opportunities should provide more rolls of the dice............but the argument against trading back is that your chances of "hitting" drop notably as you move back. Edited April 11 by BADOLBILZ 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted April 11 Posted April 11 On 4/9/2024 at 9:01 AM, Zerovoltz said: Now that Diggs has been traded and it's come to light there has been ongoing problems in the Diggs/Allen relationship.....I STAND BY THIS. Allen is going to have a great year, and the Bills are going to be FINE. Allen is now free to run the offense without having in the back of his mind that he has to get one of the guys a number of targets. The ball can and will go to the optimal reciever on a given play. I think you're right that Allen will have a great year. Your original post was solid, though the headline was deliberately provocative. Your guy Mahomes had a bit of a down year with a poor receiving group, but the kind of a down year that ends in a Lombardi is a type I wouldn't mind Josh having. 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted April 11 Posted April 11 6 hours ago, Beck Water said: I don't disagree with the overall point of your post, but it's worth noting that when the Bills broke the drought and only had one (1) 1st or 2nd rounder from prior drafts on the field (in fact, many players from any round prior drafts), it was in large part because Beane and McDermott cleaned house, arguably trading away guys who could play but who weren't "their kind of guys". Guys they swept out the door included Marcell Dareus (who was on the field for JAX), Reggie Ragland (played 3 years for KC, won a Superbowl with them), Ronald Darby (still playing, last season for BAL), Sammy Watkins (6 more seasons), Cyrus Kouandijo (2 seasons for DEN), Bobby Trees (still playing, won a SB with LAR), Stephon Gilmore (still playing) So if your point is, the Bills drafting was so horrid that none of their guys could play - while there was a long stretch of horrid picks like Aaron Maybin and Torrell Troup, there was also a fair bit of talent. The problem is, we either moved on from it for nothing (Gilmore, Bobby Trees, Andy Levitre), or just failed to develop it properly in what seems to have been a 'dysfunction junction' environment. (it's a bit of a nit, but Eric Wood, our 2009 1st round pick, was on the field for the JAX playoff 100% of the snaps. Shaq Lawson our 2016 1st round pick, and Cordy Glenn, our 2012 2nd round pick, were both on the team, but IR'd) One caveat. Torell Troup was not a bad draft pick. Read this article. He was starting to really play well at training camp that year, and lots of Bills players were and are very vocal about that. He injured his back and was advised to use painkillers and keep playing. This article is a harrowing but excellent read: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/torell-troup-the-one-drafted-a-pick-ahead-of-rob-gronkowski/article_5b363410-dbdd-503c-a774-69fedf3d37d7.html "Through the 2011 lockout, Troup trained with a vengeance. He reported to training camp at a chiseled 319 pounds, eager to break out. Practices began at St. John Fisher and the kid who had 23 tackles and no sacks the year prior was dominant for stretches. “'Honestly, I was killing the offensive line,' Troup said. 'Eric Wood, I’m good friends with him, but they couldn’t handle me.' "One day in the lunchroom, head coach Chan Gailey and General Manager Buddy Nix couldn’t contain their excitement. The two asked Troup to sit down with them and told this bull in a china shop they had no clue what he did over the offseason, but, wow, were they ecstatic to see this all transfer to game day. "Their words added more fuel to Troup’s fire. His tear continued. Teammates today still remember Troup’s raw strength. "'Low center of gravity,' guard Kraig Urbik said. 'Super strong. Legs were very thick. Strong dude – he was tough to move for sure.' “'He was a strong dude,' Wood said. “'Big, powerful guy,' added veteran Kyle Williams. 'He’s probably not your pass rusher, but a guy who could stack things up at the line and make plays at the line of scrimmage and do some good things there.' ... but a bit later ... "Then, without warning, his world started to crumble down. "In a one-on-one pass rushing drill against Wood, Troup used a head bob to freeze the center. He smacked Wood with his right arm and Troup’s hand snapped, breaking the bone underneath his right knuckle. Initially, Troup thought he jammed the finger. By the time he reached the trainers he said his hand looked like a baseball glove. "Troup missed one week of practice, wrapped the paw in a club and was prepared to punctuate his knockout summer in the preseason finale against Detroit. To this day, he cannot pinpoint the play, the moment, but during this game he fractured his lower back. “'I played all through the game doped up,' he said, 'so I couldn’t feel it.' "On Wednesday, it felt like he pulled both hamstrings. He received an epidural. Tests later revealed the fracture. A disc in his back was slipping and pushing against nerves, causing burning and numbness down his legs. "Troup sat out the first three weeks of the season and returned. “ 'It’s easy to look back now and say, "I should have sat my ass down," ’ Troup said. 'But I was young. I was stupid. And it cost me my career.' ... and still later ... "When Gronkowski was scoring more touchdowns than any tight end ever in 2011, Troup was, as he said, 'all doped up' on Toradol to survive Sundays. During the week, he chugged pain pills like Tic Tacs. Troup played that season with a fractured back – his disc slipping, jamming into nerves – enduring the most unthinkable pain he doesn’t wish upon his worst enemies. Teammates told him to quit. Coaches, he claims, told him to play. So he played to the literal point of tears and the subsequent L4/L5 spinal fusion ended his career. "He’s more casualty of a ruthless business than bust. More commodity chewed up and spit out by the NFL than outright failure. Each creak of a joint in the a.m. is his aching reminder of his season from hell. “ 'They saw the pain that I was in, man,' Troup said. 'Being who I am, all I wanted to do was do what I was told. I never thought about talking back or saying I don’t want to play. No matter how much pain I was in, if they wanted me to play, I played. It went to where I couldn’t play no more.' ” That was only about 20 - 30% of the Tyler Dunne article. Hell of an article, and if you don't have a hell of a lot of sympathy for Troup after reading it, you're tougher than I am. 2 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted April 11 Posted April 11 On 4/10/2024 at 12:32 AM, BADOLBILZ said: Rashee Rice is actually a WR1. Mahomes had a 123.7 passer rating when targeting him(and it was 102 targets, not a small sample size like Khalil Shakir). He out-produced the 1st rounders Jordan Addison and Zay Jones and then was huge for them in the playoffs. His statistical projections for this year based on the sites I have seen predict he will produce around 95-100 catches and 1100-1200 yards 7-9 TD's most likely. Not All Pro so not "elite" but definitely excellent WR1 production. The Bills don't have anyone projecting anywhere close to that. But Rice doesn't have to be "elite". They already have Travis Kelce, the elite of the elite at TE in the NFL. I like Dalton Kincaid but unless you presume that he is going to now match Kelce as the top receiving TE then the Bills WR corps doesn't match up to KC's 1-2 punch in either spot. I mentioned all the capital KC invested in WR because they didn't intentionally allow themselves to get worse at WR. @Zerovoltz suggestion that the Chiefs did so intentionally was preposterous. They expected to get MUCH better results from Moore and Toney. They hit a HR with their 3rd try in Rice.........getting a guy who produced at such a high rate as a rookie and excelled in the postseason. "Rashee Rice is actually WR1?" Now? Sorry, that's utter ridiculousness. When you get 938 yards with Pat Mahomes throwing to you, you're not a WR1. Gabe Davis in his third year equalled Rice's TDs and was only 100 yards below him. Was anyone saying Davis was only 100 yards shy of a WR1 at the time? No, and for good reason. The kind of stats Rice put up - again, with Pat Mahomes throwing to him - are NOT WR1 stats. And not particularly close. Rice "was huge for them in the playoffs,"| you say? Um, yeah? 262 yards (65.5 YPG over four games), 2 fumbles and 1 TD, and two runs for five yards, all in four games is "huge"? I think your idea of "huge" is significantly different from most. They were lucky to get both of those fumbles back or the story would have been much different. He was good in the playoffs. Not "huge," and not particularly close to "huge." I guess you could say he was the #1 WR on the Kansas City Chiefs. Not that big a deal, though, when you see that the #2 WR on the Kansas City Chiefs, Justin Watson, put up all of 460 yards. Now, is Rice a possible future #1? Yeah, he absolutely is. Hard to say how that will go, but there's a reasonable chance he reaches that level, possibly even this year, though the car crash case makes everything much less certain. You're right he doesn't have to be 'elite.' He also didn't have to be a #1. He wasn't and they won a Lombardi. Yes, the Chiefs brought in Rice, at pick 55, last year, and Skyy Moore at pick 54 the year before. And yes, they brought in Toney, but let's not pretend he was considered a sure thing. Sure things don't traded that early in their career. He was thought to be a guy who had a decent chance to be good if things went better for him in a new environment. Toney put up 420 yards in his first year with the Giants and played in two games in the first half of his second year before being traded. Then 171 yards in KC in his second season. The Chiefs brought in Rice, a solid guy, quite good for a rookie, at #55. And they won a Lombardi. 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted April 11 Posted April 11 On 4/9/2024 at 11:40 PM, Alphadawg7 said: Here is the reality no one wants to see... Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win. No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc). No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win. No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12). There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy. There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR. In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans). I want to find a WR1 for Josh too out of this draft, but people need to cool their jets on how much they are willing to give up to go get one. WR has never in NFL history, including the passing era, ever proven to be the "missing piece" for any championship team. And lets be real...Bills have had a top 5 WR the better part of the past 4 seasons, some would say top 3 WR for at least 2 of those seasons, and we only made it past the 2nd round once and never reached a Super Bowl. Going back to last year, we were 5-5 and firmly on the outside looking in regarding the playoffs when we treated Diggs like a high volume WR1. Once we went away from that we rallied to win the division and the 2 seed. Allen also had an INT% over 4% targeting Diggs and Davis while around 2% targeting everyone else. There are a number of reasons for that, but a big part of that is Allen taking what the defense gives him with everyone else rather than forcing it into Diggs or Davis. Allen is him. He doesn't need an elite WR to be an elite QB, in fact, Josh is at his best when he just goes out and makes plays without having to consider who he is getting the ball too. Yes...go draft a WR early in this draft in round 1 or 2. Yes, if there is a chance to make a small trade up to get Brian Thomas you can still pull that trigger. NO you DONT reach at 28 for just the sake of taking a WR if there is a better player at another position on the board. Yes, you can still get your WR in the 2nd, even make a less costly trade up to do so or even a trade back from 28 if that makes more sense to Beane and get back a 3rd or something. Bottom line is we do not need to mortgage our future for a WR, this has worked 0 times for a success rate of 0% and a fail rate of 100% in NFL history. ESPECIALLY in a draft this rich at WR where stud WR's will be coming out of it likely on day 1, day 2, and day 3. Yowch! Hadn't ever put it together like you did in your first paragraph there. Good stuff. Couldn't agree more. 1 Quote
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