The Bills need worse recievers

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

 

The seemingly random distribution of QBs on this list tells me it is a meaningless stat that you dug out because you think it proves a point.

 

If you change it to 3rd and 4-7 yards to go, the results are very different:

 

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-and-4-to-7/2022?sort=passrate

 

Allen's passer rating of 148.6 in that situation is much higher than Mahomes' 102.5. Ditto for Allen's first down conversion percentage of 68.75% compared to Mahomes' 56.60% in that situation.

 

Here's a weird one - on 3rd and 11+ Allen and Mahomes both have exactly a 35% first down conversion rate, a 0% interception rate, and a 0% TD rate, but Mahomes has a much higher passer rating of 108.3 to Allen's 73.5.

 

Where Mahomes really makes up ground is on 3rd and 8-10 yards. There he converts 48.15% for a 1st down, whereas Allen only converts 28.13%.

 

By the way I don't think any of these metrics I posted proves anything. My point is that if you change the sample size for the data you get wildly different results each of which could be used to prove some hypothetical point if you stretch the data to fit that point.

 

And the stat you posted also has nothing to do with what you're trying to argue. If we got rid of Diggs, Allen would have zero elite targets and Mahomes would still have one. Nothing you can possibly say will change that fact.

[starrymessenger]

To me its really just a cost benefit analysis. At what point does what an elite receiver brings to the table become secondary to the disturbance he may be to the locker room and to the concerted team effort needed to win a championship. Otherwise any QB is better off with more rather than less accomplished receivers, and many elite receivers are not known to be troublemakers. Mahomes has proven that his performance was in no way dependent upon Hill. But the Chiefs invested in his O-line, he has Andy Reid and had EB, and his receiving corps and support from the run game was better overall than what Allen has had. Allen needs to be surrounded by better talent not lesser talent. He already shoulders too much of the load.

[HappyDays]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Where Mahomes really makes up ground is on 3rd and 8-10 yards. There he converts 48.15% for a 1st down, whereas Allen only converts 28.13%.

 

Just to add something to this, in this down and distance Allen took a sack on an alarming 25% of attempts. Mahomes only took a sack on 7.41% of his attempts. Without looking at each attempt I can't say how much of that discrepancy is because of the OL versus how much is because of QB processing. But it shows one possible reason why 3rd down conversion rate without context may not tell us anything meaningful.

 

It's also worth noting that the sample size we're working off of here is very very low. On the 3rd and 8-10 splits where Mahomes builds most of his overall lead in 3rd and 5+ conversion percentage, Mahomes and Allen have just 27 and 32 attempts respectively.

 

Edited July 2, 2023 by HappyDays

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I wanted to throw this in the mix.  The first tweet is Mahomes conversion rate on 3rd and 5 or more.  ......but the kicker is the following tweet and stat where he would have still been 2nd in the NFL if you only count throws to any but Kelce.  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm perplexed how you draw the conclusion that the Chiefs don't think they need star receivers when they have an All Pro in Kelce.......3 first or second round picks at WR from the past 3 drafts that they've acquired in the past 15 months........and a $10M aav WR3?

 

I mean.........do the Bills need a "diva" receiver who assaults women and children or women pregnant with his children....like Tyreek Hill?   No, that's a hard pass in the WNY market and I think that when the Chiefs finally felt they could no longer keep him satisfied playing at a deviants discount.......they made that decision too.   

 

You are over-thinking this, IMO.

 

[Zerovoltz]

1.  My intent isn't to make this thread a Mahomes thread.

 

2. I would bet money that if Diggs isn't on this roster in 2023, the Bills offense keeps on truckin'.  

 

3.  If you want to argue about the O line.....I will listen to that argument.  

 

4.  I am sticking to my point.  Allen is an elite NFL QB and does not need an elite WR 1.  I would argue he and the Bills would be better off with a deep group of good WR.

 

5.  Joe Burrow has a bad line and elite WR's 3 deep.  They were 12th in yards per play.  KC was 1 and Bills were 2.  

 

6.  The Bills were 6th in NY/A  KC was 1.  Cincy was 8.  The Bills had nearly the same amount of passing yards on 36 fewer attempts.

 

The guy who needs the elite WR's is Burrow, not Allen.  

[MPT]

22 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

1.  My intent isn't to make this thread a Mahomes thread.

 

2. I would bet money that if Diggs isn't on this roster in 2023, the Bills offense keeps on truckin'.  

 

3.  If you want to argue about the O line.....I will listen to that argument.  

 

4.  I am sticking to my point.  Allen is an elite NFL QB and does not need an elite WR 1.  I would argue he and the Bills would be better off with a deep group of good WR.

 

5.  Joe Burrow has a bad line and elite WR's 3 deep.  They were 12th in yards per play.  KC was 1 and Bills were 2.  

 

6.  The Bills were 6th in NY/A  KC was 1.  Cincy was 8.  The Bills had nearly the same amount of passing yards on 36 fewer attempts.

 

The guy who needs the elite WR's is Burrow, not Allen.  

 

The problem with your argument is that the Chiefs still have an elite WR1 equivalent. His name is Travis Kelce. They had two elite #1 pass catchers when Hill was there. Mahomes didn't miss a beat when Hill left, but we'll see what happens when Kelce starts slowing down. That's going to be a much different situation. 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 7/2/2023 at 8:18 PM, Zerovoltz said:

1.  My intent isn't to make this thread a Mahomes thread.

 

2. I would bet money that if Diggs isn't on this roster in 2023, the Bills offense keeps on truckin'.  

 

3.  If you want to argue about the O line.....I will listen to that argument.  

 

4.  I am sticking to my point.  Allen is an elite NFL QB and does not need an elite WR 1.  I would argue he and the Bills would be better off with a deep group of good WR.

 

5.  Joe Burrow has a bad line and elite WR's 3 deep.  They were 12th in yards per play.  KC was 1 and Bills were 2.  

 

6.  The Bills were 6th in NY/A  KC was 1.  Cincy was 8.  The Bills had nearly the same amount of passing yards on 36 fewer attempts.

 

The guy who needs the elite WR's is Burrow, not Allen.  

 

 

 

4.  Who are the Bills "deep group of good WR"?    It's Diggs.......a huge gap..........and THEN a MVS-like WR3 in Gabe Davis(who is a pending UFA)......the another drop-off to a couple 5th rounders and a couple journeymen with 190 yards per season averages.    You are subtracting Diggs from the equation but not adding ANY of the 4 or 5 "good" receivers.    Maybe Kincaid turns into a WR,  but even then, without Diggs, on paper it's Kincaid and the pips without significant investment into the position in the 2024 offseason.

 

Again........you are drawing a broad conclusion based on one single result that you think was the Chiefs filling WR roles with a bunch of rando's(when they in fact, did not)........and then the Chiefs being the first team to win a SB without two very high quality WR's since the 2018 Patriots.

 

My advice is to eliminate any Patriot result when you are looking at SB success.   There are not any HC's in the NFL who can hold a candle to Belichick on an even playing field.   

[BuffaloBillyG]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

Myth: BUSTED 

[Forward Progress]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Myth: BUSTED 

 

This may be the greatest thread bumping in the history of bumping threads.  🏆

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Myth: BUSTED 

 

The interwebs never forget

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

 

They were way worse than Gabe.

 

 

My favorite comment I saw:  "Toney beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl and then immediately turning into the worst player on the planet was every Giants fan's dream come true"

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

Toney made me THANKFUL for Davis.

[Captain Hindsight]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Last night was like if every Chiefs WR was Gabe Davis. 

More like bad Isiah McKenzie 

[Mango]

I think the answer at WR is similar to what KC did last year/this year and the groupings the Pats won with. Very good tight end and a lot of "pretty good" with specific skill sets. The idea QB's like Allen, Mahomes, Brady, etc. need Diggs and OBJ or Hopkins, or whoever isn't the solution. Not once you pay the QB. 

I think the Bills have gotten close but not quite there. Knox is very good but not great. Diggs is great. Davis is good but needs some consistency with his hands. Harty, Sherfield, Kincaid, and Kalil should all be able to contribute. I think the Bills have a bigger issue at pass catcher, we don't often put our WR in a position to succeed and we do a pretty mediocre job at spreading the ball out. We have to do a better job at making the defense cover everybody rather than our top 3 all the time. 

 

Brady and Mahomes pay the bills by throwing to the guy defenses ignore. Over the course of the season that should make life easier for Diggs and Co. 

[Mango]

11 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

They were way worse than Gabe.

 

 

My favorite comment I saw:  "Toney beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl and then immediately turning into the worst player on the planet was every Giants fan's dream come true"

 

I was typing something on another thread about Toney and after I hit "reply" I immediately got an ESPN notification he was cut. 

In a weird way I respect that Mahomes kept going back to him. It is something that I think sometimes holds Rodgers back. He openly says "I won't throw x the ball because of drops" (paraphrasing). At some point you have to make the right decisions about given plays and coverage. If John Smith costs you a game that's on John Smith. But he won't get better if you never throw to him. And the job for your other WR won't get any easier if you just ignore other players on the field either. 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

 

The concept isn't a terrible idea, but as has been pointed out KC still have Kelce.  The other issue would be the cap hit.  Believe it's been stated that for this season and next, the Bills are stuck with Diggs due to the hit.  But in 2025 if there is any more whining, issues coming from Diggs, at that point, he likely would be gone once the cap hit is low enough.

 

 

Personally I wasn't a big fan of getting Hopkins for the reasons the OP stated, we don't need a second elite WR.  One plus the talent around him when throwing in Allen is enough to win with.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

19 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think the answer at WR is similar to what KC did last year/this year and the groupings the Pats won with. Very good tight end and a lot of "pretty good" with specific skill sets. The idea QB's like Allen, Mahomes, Brady, etc. need Diggs and OBJ or Hopkins, or whoever isn't the solution. Not once you pay the QB. 

I think the Bills have gotten close but not quite there. Knox is very good but not great. Diggs is great. Davis is good but needs some consistency with his hands. Harty, Sherfield, Kincaid, and Kalil should all be able to contribute. I think the Bills have a bigger issue at pass catcher, we don't often put our WR in a position to succeed and we do a pretty mediocre job at spreading the ball out. We have to do a better job at making the defense cover everybody rather than our top 3 all the time. 

 

Brady and Mahomes pay the bills by throwing to the guy defenses ignore. Over the course of the season that should make life easier for Diggs and Co. 

Hmmm...so much to unpack here

I do tend to agree Dorsey and Allen need to find a way to spread the ball around and trust in your 4th and 5th option to make plays from time to time. Yet if you look at the very best WRs of which Diggs is one of them, they get high volumes of targets. 

My gut tells me this offense will be best if Diggs is around 110 receptions and Davis, Knox and Kincaid each get 6-8 TD receptions. 

[Mango]

35 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Hmmm...so much to unpack here

I do tend to agree Dorsey and Allen need to find a way to spread the ball around and trust in your 4th and 5th option to make plays from time to time. Yet if you look at the very best WRs of which Diggs is one of them, they get high volumes of targets. 

My gut tells me this offense will be best if Diggs is around 110 receptions and Davis, Knox and Kincaid each get 6-8 TD receptions. 

 

I am a less concerned about Diggs numbers vs other top receivers, and more concerned about the patterns of the two teams who consistently seem to be in their conference championship games. But I don't think we are saying something much different from each other either. Here are all the SB's from Brady and Mahomes, as well as their top receiver by receptions and league rank. 

2022 - Kelce - 110 (3) - Mahomes

2020 - Evans- 70 (33) - Brady

2019 - Kelce - 97 (8) - Mahomes

2018 - White - 87 (16) - Brady

2016 - Edelman - 98 (4) - Brady

2014 - Edelman - 92 (8) - Brady

2004 - Givens - 56 (41) - Brady

2003 - Branch - 57 (42) - Brady

2001- Brown - 101 (5) - Brady

 

I was curious so I added the SB's from any QB who won 2x since 2000. 
 

2015 - Thomas - 105 (7) - Manning

2011 - Cruz - 82 (9) - Eli

2008 - Ward - 81 (14) - Ben

2007 - Burress - 70 (30)- Eli

2006 - Harrison - 95 (3) - Manning

2005 - Ward - 69 (30) - Ben

 

To yours (and others) points, having somebody to go to as your outlet consistently is important. But Diggs doesn't need 110 targets either. Kelce last year would be the first time that happened to a QB who won multiple SB's in a SB year. 

 

Diggs doesn't need more targets, the rest of the WR corp does.  Some of this is on Beane, some on Dorsey, some on Allen, and some on the WR's themselves. 

 

 

[mjd1001]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

It it was possible, I would trade giving the WR room 10-20% less money if that could be used to improve the OL.  I think Allen could be even better throwing to a slightly worse WR group if he had slightly more time to do so and a slightly better Running game.