The Bills need worse recievers

[ddaryl]

On 4/1/2023 at 5:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

 

 

and now we get to see what a Diggs-less Bills will be like.

 

Bold post 1 year in advance, as I wouldn't have felt this way at this time last year

[T master]

No matter how good Josh is he needs as much help as he can get he has basically carried the team in the play offs for the past few years . As they say it akes all 3 phases of the team to win the big game as we all as Bills fans have seen in the 90's .

 

You can have a very high powered offense but if the defense doesn't get the ball back due to missed tackles and such then the offense can't score enough points to win . If ST's allows the oppositions ST's to score or get really good field position so the other team has a short field that's not good either .

 

Josh can cover up a lot of warts but he can only do so much he needs above average WR's that he can depend on not below average guys that haven't been able to prove them selves . We had those guys which you are trying to say to get last season in Trent Sherfield & Deonte Hardy how did that work out ?

[dock581]

I think Zero a well known KC fan deserves a lot of credit for this post of over a year ago. Our offense did fine with Diggs not a big part of it over the last 7 games. Yes he may have drawn some coverages but he also had a huge game winning drop.we need good, reliable pass catchers like Kincaid and Shakir. A game busting potential superstar like MHJ would be incredible but we’ll be just fine with another solid if not spectacular receiver. Don’t sell the farm to move up!!

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/1/2023 at 5:36 PM, CircleTheWagons99 said:

This, KC still had Kelce….

Who was old and in decline last year just to still win the SB again.

[90sBills]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Who was old and in decline last year just to still win the SB again.

Because the engine is Mahomes not any receiver. Looking forward to see Allen be the same way this season. 

[Alphadawg7]

Here is the reality no one wants to see...

 

Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win.  No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc).  No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win.  No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12).  

 

There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy.  There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR.  In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans).

 

I want to find a WR1 for Josh too out of this draft, but people need to cool their jets on how much they are willing to give up to go get one.  WR has never in NFL history, including the passing era, ever proven to be the "missing piece" for any championship team.  

 

And lets be real...Bills have had a top 5 WR the better part of the past 4 seasons, some would say top 3 WR for at least 2 of those seasons, and we only made it past the 2nd round once and never reached a Super Bowl.  Going back to last year, we were 5-5 and firmly on the outside looking in regarding the playoffs when we treated Diggs like a high volume WR1.  Once we went away from that we rallied to win the division and the 2 seed.  

 

Allen also had an INT% over 4% targeting Diggs and Davis while around 2% targeting everyone else.  There are a number of reasons for that, but a big part of that is Allen taking what the defense gives him with everyone else rather than forcing it into Diggs or Davis.  

 

Allen is him.  He doesn't need an elite WR to be an elite QB, in fact, Josh is at his best when he just goes out and makes plays without having to consider who he is getting the ball too.  

 

Yes...go draft a WR early in this draft in round 1 or 2.  Yes, if there is a chance to make a small trade up to get Brian Thomas you can still pull that trigger.  NO you DONT reach at 28 for just the sake of taking a WR if there is a better player at another position on the board.  Yes, you can still get your WR in the 2nd, even make a less costly trade up to do so or even a trade back from 28 if that makes more sense to Beane and get back a 3rd or something.  

 

Bottom line is we do not need to mortgage our future for a WR, this has worked 0 times for a success rate of 0% and a fail rate of 100% in NFL history.  ESPECIALLY in a draft this rich at WR where stud WR's will be coming out of it likely on day 1, day 2, and day 3.  

[TheFunPolice]

I hate this type of reasoning. 

 

Let's apply it to the defense instead: McDermott is a mastermind. A gem. "Best Bills coach ever" (LOL but ok). So let's make due with so-so defensive players on dirt cheap contracts and give Allen weapons on offense. 

 

SF gets to the SB and wins tons of games without a real QB because of skill players. Imagine in SF had a real QB? 

 

Brady got a couple Super Bowls with mostly elite defensive play, but overall didn't win without elite playmakers either. Edelman and Gronk were pretty damn elite, as were the guys in TB (Evans, Godwin, Gronk). 

Edited April 9 by TheFunPolice

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

The OP is bang on! We don't need elite WR's. We actually have a bunch of dudes that can catch the ball: Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel and Knox to name a few.

 

You mention KC has Toney/Moore/Rice. They are NOT elite WR's. Toney is quite low-end actually.

 

Bills are not moving up to get a WR. If anything, we move up for Latu!

 

 

Rashee Rice is actually a WR1.    Mahomes had a 123.7 passer rating when targeting him(and it was 102 targets, not a small sample size like Khalil Shakir).  He out-produced the 1st rounders Jordan Addison and Zay Jones and then was huge for them in the playoffs.  His statistical projections for this year based on the sites I have seen predict he will produce around 95-100 catches and 1100-1200 yards 7-9 TD's most likely.   Not All Pro so not "elite" but definitely excellent WR1 production.   The Bills don't have anyone projecting anywhere close to that.

 

But Rice doesn't have to be "elite".   They already have Travis Kelce, the elite of the elite at TE in the NFL.    I like Dalton Kincaid but unless you presume that he is going to now match Kelce as the top receiving TE then the Bills WR corps doesn't match up to KC's 1-2 punch in either spot.

 

I mentioned all the capital KC invested in WR because they didn't intentionally allow themselves to get worse at WR.    @Zerovoltz suggestion that the Chiefs did so intentionally was preposterous.   They expected to get  MUCH better results from Moore and Toney.   They hit a HR with their 3rd try in Rice.........getting a guy who produced at such a high rate as a rookie and excelled in the postseason. 

[BADOLBILZ]

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win.  

 

 

Where are the examples of teams that were seen as on the cusp that made a big move for a WR that failed?

 

Bills fans point to the Sammy Watkins trade but that team hadn't made the playoffs in like 14 years and didn't have a QB.

 

The Julio Jones trade ultimately didn't yield a SB WIN.........but he was great and they reached a SB that they probably don't otherwise. 

 

Same with the Eagles and TO..........he elevated their game offensively and they got to a SB with him.   

 

There just aren't many examples that match the criteria one way or another so it seems like a throwaway kinda' post to hang a hat on.

 

Randy Moss didn't cost much but he helped turn the Patriots from a defense-first team into the top offense in NFL history and got to a SB.    OBJ to the same extent did have a huge impact on the Rams winning a SB.   Moves for WR's have often paid dividends, in general.

 

I don't have any desire for the Bills to trade up but the idea that it's a proven-bad formula isn't supported. 

 

 

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:20 PM, Bills of Boston said:

Dead cap hit…. Is a thing 

 

Obv  just giving you a hard time. You’re a great poster here with an awesome KC perspective… While I understand the thought process, it just makes less than zero sense to move Diggs for multiple multiple reasons 

Not being argumentative but I don't understand this take.  What GM would proactively weaken a unit "just because"?   Diggs was obviously becoming or had become a major distraction/problem within the organization and Beane was not going to tolerate it.  Thats my own personal conjecture.

 

On another note...I'm thinking the Bills might be prepping a bit to avoid an aging, underperforming team when the new stadium opens up. A team who is on the come up after a couple down years (which realistically might happen).

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

....at least we've covered all the emojis...

 

Seriously Josh still requires a true #1 WR.  Just not a diva type who needs the spotlight.  Someone reliable in the regular season and playoffs.  Someone who understands the value of spreading the ball around to the other wrs. 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, dock581 said:

I think Zero a well known KC fan deserves a lot of credit for this post of over a year ago. Our offense did fine with Diggs not a big part of it over the last 7 games. Yes he may have drawn some coverages but he also had a huge game winning drop.we need good, reliable pass catchers like Kincaid and Shakir. A game busting potential superstar like MHJ would be incredible but we’ll be just fine with another solid if not spectacular receiver. Don’t sell the farm to move up!!

 

The thing is, we needed Diggs in the playoffs - and he wasn't there.

 

We really need a game-changer to get us over the hump in the playoffs, it's just Diggs was Not That Guy the last 2 years.

[Prospector]

He posted that on April 1st... interesting

[Bills of Boston]

29 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

Not being argumentative but I don't understand this take.  What GM would proactively weaken a unit "just because"?   Diggs was obviously becoming or had become a major distraction/problem within the organization and Beane was not going to tolerate it.  Thats my own personal conjecture.

 

On another note...I'm thinking the Bills might be prepping a bit to avoid an aging, underperforming team when the new stadium opens up. A team who is on the come up after a couple down years (which realistically might happen).

 

 

When I got this notification I really thought I was losing my mind but then I realized I wrote that over a year ago… the narrative had completely changed IMO prior to moving on from Diggs last week. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, T master said:

No matter how good Josh is he needs as much help as he can get he has basically carried the team in the play offs for the past few years . As they say it akes all 3 phases of the team to win the big game as we all as Bills fans have seen in the 90's .

 

You can have a very high powered offense but if the defense doesn't get the ball back due to missed tackles and such then the offense can't score enough points to win . If ST's allows the oppositions ST's to score or get really good field position so the other team has a short field that's not good either .

 

Josh can cover up a lot of warts but he can only do so much he needs above average WR's that he can depend on not below average guys that haven't been able to prove them selves . We had those guys which you are trying to say to get last season in Trent Sherfield & Deonte Hardy how did that work out ?

We need clutch game wreckers. Other than Josh, no one on the Bills assumed that role in the playoffs. 

[Dillenger4]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Rashee Rice is actually a WR1.    Mahomes had a 123.7 passer rating when targeting him(and it was 102 targets, not a small sample size like Khalil Shakir).  He out-produced the 1st rounders Jordan Addison and Zay Jones and then was huge for them in the playoffs.  His statistical projections for this year based on the sites I have seen predict he will produce around 95-100 catches and 1100-1200 yards 7-9 TD's most likely.   Not All Pro so not "elite" but definitely excellent WR1 production.   The Bills don't have anyone projecting anywhere close to that.

 

But Rice doesn't have to be "elite".   They already have Travis Kelce, the elite of the elite at TE in the NFL.    I like Dalton Kincaid but unless you presume that he is going to now match Kelce as the top receiving TE then the Bills WR corps doesn't match up to KC's 1-2 punch in either spot.

 

I mentioned all the capital KC invested in WR because they didn't intentionally allow themselves to get worse at WR.    @Zerovoltz suggestion that the Chiefs did so intentionally was preposterous.   They expected to get  MUCH better results from Moore and Toney.   They hit a HR with their 3rd try in Rice.........getting a guy who produced at such a high rate as a rookie and excelled in the postseason. 

Thanks for the reply. Good info. Not sure if you realized but you supported my comment. Rashee Rice was taken in the second round, pick 55 overall. KC in no way expected him to be, as you say< a WR1. But he did have a good season in 2023 because of Mahomes and a good OC Scheme. I agree with you in that he is good.

My overall point is we don't need to move up in the draft for a WR at all. In fact, I believe the Bills will move up, if at all, for Latu if he falls. Otherwise, we stand at 28 and take BPA. Our WR

 

"WR1" will come in the form of an additional rookie and our current group ALL performing as a great unit. If our D can be added to we can win more games especially in the playoffs.

[Brian Higgins hair]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:10 PM, Zerovoltz said:

That isn't a typo.

 

Josh Allen is elite now.  Diggs served his purpose, much like Tyreek Hill served his in Kansas City.  They gave shooting star QB's reliable, talented targets they could confidently throw to, helping to establish confidence and develop the QB's mental game.  

 

Hill complained after being traded (at least he watied to make this public when he was already gone) that he wasn't being focused on enough, or getting enough targets...etc.

The Chiefs traded him away, used the assets and cap space to improve other parts of the team, AND then went out and performed even better on offense.  I strongly believe that a reason why this happend is becasue Mahomes was entirely free to run each and every play with the idea that making the most optimal throw is what mattered.  Not to massage an ego or placate a guy wanting a larger role etc.  You can make a strong case KC's WR room isn't any great shakes.  I'd agree with that.  They don't need to be.  Zach Wilson isn't our QB....and he's not the Bills QB either.  Josh Freaking Allen is.  Allen doesn't need elite, high cots WR's to shine now.   

 

I know the Bills are committed to this season as an all in, all chips to the middle of the table type season....that's fine.  I wouldn't even say that it's a bad idea....but I think it would be better if you moved Diggs for all you could possibly get, go sign a couple vets who need to prove it, who have maybe some low self esteem because they've fallen out of favor due to injury etc....get a couple mid level guys who you know are good pros.  Let ALLEN run the team.. let HIM dictate the best place for the ball to go.  It's his job to run as efficient, well managed offense as he possibly can....not make sure pouting WR's see the ball X number of times a game.

 

Use the resources to add to your team in areas that Allen doesn't directly impact, like the defense etc.  If the guys work out...they move on, sign big deal somewhere else...and you reload with a couple more dudes who need to prove it again.  There is never a shortage of these guys and they overplay their contracts consistantly.  Plus, you'll be supplimenting these WR's with WR's you draft who are cheap and cost controlled.  

 

ALLEN is it. He's why you are 3rd best odds to win Super Bowl this upcoming season.. LEAN INTO IT.

LOL.  Randy Moss was super super super elite with Tom Brady. I’m down with double dipping this draft. The more WR talent, the better.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

36 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Thanks for the reply. Good info. Not sure if you realized but you supported my comment. Rashee Rice was taken in the second round, pick 55 overall. KC in no way expected him to be, as you say< a WR1. But he did have a good season in 2023 because of Mahomes and a good OC Scheme. I agree with you in that he is good.

My overall point is we don't need to move up in the draft for a WR at all. In fact, I believe the Bills will move up, if at all, for Latu if he falls. Otherwise, we stand at 28 and take BPA. Our WR

 

"WR1" will come in the form of an additional rookie and our current group ALL performing as a great unit. If our D can be added to we can win more games especially in the playoffs.

 

 

KC drafted Rice with the hope that he'd be a WR1.   You don't draft receivers in the first or second round to be role players unless they project to be extraordinary in a single, important aspect.    Like as a deep threat.   Rice was a rounded skillset type.   The reason you draft any player in round one instead of subsequent rounds is because the hit rate is going to be higher with players deemed good enough to select in round 1.    That's the way it works.   The Chiefs took 3 swipes with day 2 picks and appear to have only hit on one(so far).    

 

The point is, if KC is your model you need an elite target(Kelce) and a WR1(Rice).   The Bills have neither, at  this point.   With Diggs falling off last season the disparity in receiver quality was quite clear in the playoff matchup.   The Chiefs offense was explosive and the Bills offense had to rely on executing smaller plays and burning clock.    The Bills are in need of a talent infusion at WR.   I am not against taking a great pass rusher if one were there but I am not hoping the Bills make a significant trade up at all, myself.     They need multiple receivers and should try to come out of this draft with players from the other strong positions.......OL and CB.  

Edited April 9 by BADOLBILZ

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Where are the examples of teams that were seen as on the cusp that made a big move for a WR that failed?

 

Bills fans point to the Sammy Watkins trade but that team hadn't made the playoffs in like 14 years and didn't have a QB.

 

The Julio Jones trade ultimately didn't yield a SB WIN.........but he was great and they reached a SB that they probably don't otherwise. 

 

Same with the Eagles and TO..........he elevated their game offensively and they got to a SB with him.   

 

There just aren't many examples that match the criteria one way or another so it seems like a throwaway kinda' post to hang a hat on.

 

Randy Moss didn't cost much but he helped turn the Patriots from a defense-first team into the top offense in NFL history and got to a SB.    OBJ to the same extent did have a huge impact on the Rams winning a SB.   Moves for WR's have often paid dividends, in general.

 

I don't have any desire for the Bills to trade up but the idea that it's a proven-bad formula isn't supported. 

 

 

 

I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying.  Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick.  And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either.  So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team.   For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer.  But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl?  Answer is quite frankly never has.

 

The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return.  Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so?  Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts.  

 

Consider the year we got Diggs.  That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane.  Well...lets see how that worked out:

• Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal.  Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.  
  • What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
    • Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR.  
    • Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season.  Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb.  
• Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins.  Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins.  

Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs.  Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group.  

• We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team
• 2021 we lost because of our defense
• 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather
• 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty.  

The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson.  Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct.  But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field.  

 

Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd.  Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle.  I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones.  

 

To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years.  And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management.  

 

IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less.  But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team.  That could be what puts us over the top even.  And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too.  

 

For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting.  I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA.  

 

Edited April 9 by Alphadawg7

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

3 hours ago, Bills of Boston said:

When I got this notification I really thought I was losing my mind but then I realized I wrote that over a year ago… the narrative had completely changed IMO prior to moving on from Diggs last week. 

LOL...Well, bad on me because I didn't look at the post date. Your right, circumstances are definitely different. 

Edited April 9 by BIGFOOTspaceman