Optimizing Dawson Knox

[Chaos]

24 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Asking if Knox can play at Kelce or Gronk level is not fair to Knox. Let's slow our roll before asking if he can play at the level of probably the two greatest tight ends to ever play.

 

TE is an interesting position. Everyone wants to find an elite tight end for obvious reasons. When you have a tight end at the level of a Gronk or Kelce it makes your offense nearly unstoppable. Problem is, in any given year there is typically only one of those guys out of 32 starting tight ends in the league. As great a tight end as George Kittle is, I'd say Kelce is an entire tier better than Kittle. And Kittle is really good. 

 

I haven't really done a deep dive into tight end tiers luck people like to tier QB's, but off the top of my head I would probably say you have Kelce in a tier by himself, and really, he should be like two tiers ahead of the next tier. Then you probably have a tier with Kittle, Andrews and Goedert. Then you have a tier with probably 8-10 guys making up the third tier of tight ends from 5-14. That is basically where Knox is. We are hoping he can get to tier 2. Forget about tier 1. 

The concept here is to optimize him.  It is perfectly reasonable to discuss what his ceiling is. Gronk always had a great oline.  Kelce had his best year in 2022 with probably the best online he has had to play next too. Maybe it matters. Maybe it does not. But I don't limit Knox's ceiling just yet. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The concept here is to optimize him.  It is perfectly reasonable to discuss what his ceiling is. Gronk always had a great oline.  Kelce had his best year in 2022 with probably the best online he has had to play next too. Maybe it matters. Maybe it does not. But I don't limit Knox's ceiling just yet. 

The two greatest tight ends ever? Come on, let's be fair to Knox. When I see Knox run routes compared to Kelce it is pretty clear to see who the more fluid route runner is. Let's set reasonable expectations.

 

As others have already mentioned in this thread, it's a myth that that Knox was kept in to block more or that he wasn't schemed open. For whatever reason, Allen did not throw to him much when he was open. I've already stated that it is disingenuous to put that all on Dorsey. Some of it needs to fall on Allen. 

 

 

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Knox will only come close to being Kelce once defenses stop covering him, like they refuse to cover Kelce. 

 

Check out Kelce blowing past Chargers 2nd Team All-Pro safety Derwin James in their Week 11 game game to put KC up with 30 seconds to play.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Hockenson says hi.

 

 Kelce is by himself as you said. Then I'd put Hockenson, Andrews & Kittle in tier 2. Next would be Goedert, Engram(If he plays like he did last year) and maybe Freiermuth? in tier 3. Knox would currently be tier 4, but should be minimally in tier 3, most likely tier 2 if he gets the targets the other TEs are getting.

 

 

 

You may be correct about Hockenson in tier 2 now. Last year was his breakout year. But you are low balling Goedert. Goedert has averaged both more yards per game and higher catch percentages than Hockenson in each of the last two seasons.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

You may be correct about Hockenson in tier 2 now. Last year was his breakout year. But you are low balling Goedert. Goedert has averaged both more yards per game and higher catch percentages than Hockenson in each of the last two seasons.

 

Damn, I think I might have low balled Goedert as you said lol. Hockenson was more effective, on less touches in Detroit than in Minnesota. His ypc  almost doubled after he got traded vs before the trade this year. Definitely a weapon if Detroit gets him enough targets. We'll see what happens this year.

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, AlBUNDY4TDS said:

Seems like Josh just prefers to throw to the WR's. I believe he targets Knox as frequent as Mckenzie.

 

We are ranked last in percentage IIRC.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/

 

Well, according to this link, the Giants and the Dolphins were lower, and the Bengals only a couple % points better.

 

But to that point...both the Bengals and the Dolphins have two legit #1 receiving targets.

 

The Bills last year, did not - and Dawson Knox had the best catch % of any receiver on the team, with 10.8 Y/R so he wasn't just catching dump-offs.  So it was a mystery to me at the time why he wasn't targeted more.

4 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

I don’t have the numbers but Joe Marino did a deep dive on this towards the end of the season. The gist of it is that Knox has NOT been kept in to block, his drop issue has improved significantly, and he is open on routes. Dorsey does not have him high in the progression and Josh reads deep to short. He absolutely needs to be emphasized more in the passing game and not as an outlet. That’s on Dorsey. Josh has said himself when they get Knox involved the offense flows much smoother.

 

Meaning no offense to Joe Marino, and perhaps you mis-remember or mis-quote slightly, but Knox was, in fact, asked to chip or block quite a lot last season.  Beane and McDermott both referenced this in their end-of-season pressers where, unlike pressers in FA and pre draft, they're discussing what's already happened and are usually straightforward.

 

That said, I agree completely with the rest  - even when he chipped and released, Knox was often open underneath and also open on routes to my eyes.  Caveat, that's not the rating that ESPN thing someone linked gave him - he didn't score highly on being open.

[brianthomas]

i never quite understood why we paid Knox the money we did, when we did, when there wasn't a pressing need to.

Its not like there were a bunch of teams chomping at the bit to get Dawson Knox. And its not like he was becoming disgruntled & needed an extension. The timing was just surprising, including the amount.

But the way you optimize Knox is by utilizing him. Design plays for him. Do the chip & go like Kelce does. It seems a lot of how we use Knox is on plays that take longer to develop. Its what has plagued a lot of this offense at times as well. Take the easy underneath stuff that the defense gives you. 1 on 1, Knox on a LB or safety, box it out like basketball, Knox & Allen should win most the times. You just gotta take it. And its something we just havent been willing to do.

Edited April 1, 2023 by brianthomas

[Nephilim17]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I lost my older brother a couple years ago at the young age of 31 so I have a real soft spot for Knox. The fact he was able to even continue playing is crazy w/ barely any time to grieve, but I’m sure it weighed heavily on his thoughts & performance. These players are people too. I have a feeling he will have a huge season next year. 

I know this sounds trite but I hope you and your family are doing ok. I've lost people early too but that's way too soon. You are, sadly, one of the few who can empathize with Dawson. 

[GunnerBill]

Top 5 in the entire league in average separation rate in 2022.

 

Over 70% catch rate over the last two years. 

 

3rd in that same period in touchdowns at the position only to the best two Tight Ends in football. 

 

Yes the Bills under use him. No it is not because he has to block too much. It is on Josh and Ken Dorsey. 

 

It is my number 1 criteria for judging Dorsey in 2023. If they can't get Dawson Knox the ball more we need a new OC. The good news is it did seem to click a bit down the stetch. 

[GunnerBill]

 

 

 

1 hour ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Hockenson says hi.

 

 Kelce is by himself as you said. Then I'd put Hockenson, Andrews & Kittle in tier 2. Next would be Goedert, Engram(If he plays like he did last year) and maybe Freiermuth? in tier 3. Knox would currently be tier 4, but should be minimally in tier 3, most likely tier 2 if he gets the targets the other TEs are getting.

 

 

Dawson is better than Engram and Freirmuth and it isn't even close. The difference? Their OCs and QBs throw those guys the ball. 

 

The Bills with Knox are like the guy with the midlife crisis who bought a clapped out classic Jaguar, spent 2 years restoring it (because Knox was a huge project coming out but with freakish talent and the Bills actuakly did the development bit well) he now has a shiny pristine classic and then only drives it once a year at a classic car show. 

 

GET KNOX THE EFFING BALL!!

Edited April 1, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

 

Dawson is better than Engram and Freirmuth and it isn't even close. The difference? Their OCs and QBs throw those guys the ball. 

 

The Bills with Knox are like the guy with the midlife crisis who bought a clapped out classic Jaguar, spent 2 years restoring it, now has a shiny pristine classic and then only drives it once a year at a classic car show. 

 

GET KNOX THE EFFING BALL!!

 

As I have alluded to in the past with Knox, you are what your numbers say you are until you change them. Theoretically, given his advanced separation metrics, Knox should be a top 8 even top 5 tight end in this league. BUT, he's consistently been around 12-15 in yards and receptions these last two years. We can complain all day long about Dorsey and Allen needing to get the ball to Knox and I do agree with that, but eventually you are what the raw numbers say you are. 

 

The offense needs to change a lot. As much as the offense needs to get the ball to Knox more it needs to get it to the collection of RB's even more so. We will see if happens. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

 

Dawson is better than Engram and Freirmuth and it isn't even close. The difference? Their OCs and QBs throw those guys the ball. 

 

The Bills with Knox are like the guy with the midlife crisis who bought a clapped out classic Jaguar, spent 2 years restoring it (because Knox was a huge project coming out but with freakish talent and the Bills actuakly did the development bit well) he now has a shiny pristine classic and then only drives it once a year at a classic car show. 

 

GET KNOX THE EFFING BALL!!

 

 Talent wise I agree. Apparently you missed my post earlier where I said I think he should be getting 90-100 targets a year? Top 5 average for targets this year was 114.5. I agree Knox is better, but until they start feeding him the ball like they should, I can't put him that high. If Diggs is getting doubled & defenses are using a defender to spy on Josh, like defenses were doing in the 2nd half of the year, how are they not getting Knox the ball more often? It blows my mind. Give him 100 targets and he'd either be in the 2nd tier or just outside of it.

 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

 

Dawson is better than Engram and Freirmuth and it isn't even close. The difference? Their OCs and QBs throw those guys the ball. 

 

The Bills with Knox are like the guy with the midlife crisis who bought a clapped out classic Jaguar, spent 2 years restoring it (because Knox was a huge project coming out but with freakish talent and the Bills actuakly did the development bit well) he now has a shiny pristine classic and then only drives it once a year at a classic car show. 

 

GET KNOX THE EFFING BALL!!

Great analogy.

[Doc Brown]

The disappointment is there because the expectations were raised for Knox with the new contract.  Plus, we were hoping that he could fill in for the void left in the slot by Beasley.  Just a quick look at his last two seasons though and there wasn't much variance.

 

2021 Dawson Knox (15 games played) - 587 yards receiving, 49 receptions on 71 targets, 9 TD's.  Bills threw it to TE's at 13.3%.  Tied for lowest in the league.  

2022 Dawson Knox (15 games played) - 517 yard receiving, 48 receptions on 68 targets, 5 TD's.  Bills threw it to TE's at at 13.8%.  Third lowest in the league (Giants at 13.3% FWIW). 

 

I guess the question is are you satisfied with the Bills running nearly the same offense under Dorsey as they did under Daboll.  Do you want to see Dorsey use 12 personnel more?  I sure as heck do.  I want more 12 personnel and more play action this year.  That will not only help Josh but Knox as well.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Talent wise I agree. Apparently you missed my post earlier where I said I think he should be getting 90-100 targets a year? Top 5 average for targets this year was 114.5. I agree Knox is better, but until they start feeding him the ball like they should, I can't put him that high. If Diggs is getting doubled & defenses are using a defender to spy on Josh, like defenses were doing in the 2nd half of the year, how are they not getting Knox the ball more often? It blows my mind. Give him 100 targets and he'd either be in the 2nd tier or just outside of it.

 

 

While I understand the point, I think you can see some of that from redzone usage. Because over the last two years he is 6th in tight ends in the redzone im terms of targets, 5th in receptions and 3rd in touchdowns behind Kelce and Andrews. 

 

So where the Bills use him he performs like one of the top tight ends in football. They need to find a way to use him between the 20s. 

 

Knox's redzone numbers over the last two years for those interested - 28 targets, 17 receptions, 10 touchdowns.

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Asking if Knox can play at Kelce or Gronk level is not fair to Knox. Let's slow our roll before asking if he can play at the level of probably the two greatest tight ends to ever play.

 

TE is an interesting position. Everyone wants to find an elite tight end for obvious reasons. When you have a tight end at the level of a Gronk or Kelce it makes your offense nearly unstoppable. Problem is, in any given year there is typically only one of those guys out of 32 starting tight ends in the league. As great a tight end as George Kittle is, I'd say Kelce is an entire tier better than Kittle. And Kittle is really good. 

 

I haven't really done a deep dive into tight end tiers luck people like to tier QB's, but off the top of my head I would probably say you have Kelce in a tier by himself, and really, he should be like two tiers ahead of the next tier. Then you probably have a tier with Kittle, Andrews and Goedert. Then you have a tier with probably 8-10 guys making up the third tier of tight ends from 5-14. That is basically where Knox is. We are hoping he can get to tier 2. Forget about tier 1. 

It probably goes : Kelce then Kittle as the elite

 

Then Andrews Goedert Hockenson true big time TEs

 

The third tier are guys like Waller, Engram, Pitts who are freaks but not complete players

 

Knox is in the fourth tier w Friermuth, Schultz, Everett, Hunter Henrys of the world. Borderline top10 guy

[LyndonvilleBill]

I think Knox is considerably better than what we've already seen and I believe he will be even better utilized if we are able to get an above average OL.

 

Other than rewatching each game, Is there someplace to see where he lined up? Inline, backfield, Right or left side? For some reason I am seeing him lined up in the backfield alot to Josh's right (right side for obvious reasons). Also anyplace to see like time to release? I see people mention him running a lot of routes and I recall many as well, but, from memory it seemed Like his "chip blocks" were more like block and release (if that makes sense). By the time he released and got into his route,  Josh was already scrambling. When I picture, say Kelce chip block it's almost like bang bang. He pops his guy and he's gone. When I picture Knox, it's like block until you know we're OK, then release. 

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I think Knox is considerably better than what we've already seen and I believe he will be even better utilized if we are able to get an above average OL.

 

Other than rewatching each game, Is there someplace to see where he lined up? Inline, backfield, Right or left side? For some reason I am seeing him lined up in the backfield alot to Josh's right (right side for obvious reasons). Also anyplace to see like time to release? I see people mention him running a lot of routes and I recall many as well, but, from memory it seemed Like his "chip blocks" were more like block and release (if that makes sense). By the time he released and got into his route,  Josh was already scrambling. When I picture, say Kelce chip block it's almost like bang bang. He pops his guy and he's gone. When I picture Knox, it's like block until you know we're OK, then release. 

 

Knox For 2022:

Backfield 52

Inline 461

Slot 323

Wide 106

 

Comparison to the top guys:

 

Kelce for 2022:

Backfield 7

Inline 400

Slot 388

Wide 272

 

Andrews for 2022:

Backfield 11

Inline 209

Slot 437

Wide 181

 

Kittle for 2022:

Backfield 14

Inline 709

Slot 226

Wide 73

 

 

[ganesh]

I think too many things went wrong last season for Knox to judge him correctly

 

• Death of his brother hurt him in the early part of the season
• Staying back to protect forJL reduced his scope 
• Josh and Dorsey went for the big plays instead of the dink and dunk where Knox thrived. 
• Knox himself had too many drops that he would have liked to take back.

I don't now if he h=was carrying any type of injury during the season.

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

As I have alluded to in the past with Knox, you are what your numbers say you are until you change them. Theoretically, given his advanced separation metrics, Knox should be a top 8 even top 5 tight end in this league. BUT, he's consistently been around 12-15 in yards and receptions these last two years. We can complain all day long about Dorsey and Allen needing to get the ball to Knox and I do agree with that, but eventually you are what the raw numbers say you are. 

 

The offense needs to change a lot. As much as the offense needs to get the ball to Knox more it needs to get it to the collection of RB's even more so. We will see if happens. 

The offense definitely needs to go to a dink-and-dunk model and improve on yards after catch.  We don't need to keep throwing those low % plays. They are not sustainable

[RunTheBall]

I am a big Dorsey skeptic so yeah I’m putting much of the blame on him because he designs the offense and decides who the primary reads are.

 

1) Offense came out blowing the doors off teams early in the season

2) Defenses adjusted 

3) Dorsey did not

4) Josh got injured (this was a much bigger injury than most understand. He should have sat for 4 games minimum but he is a warrior and played through it. It definitely affected him both mentally and physically and we should give him credit for the W’s and take the decreased stats with a grain of salt

5) Josh lost confidence in his offensive line. There was no way to get into the flow of a game with different O-lineman getting destroyed regularly and Josh not knowing who was going to sht the bed on any given play. He had time to maybe get to read #2 before he had to either run or scamble and go off structure.

6) Yeah Josh could have hit underneath receivers that were open more often, no question. Whether this was injury related, O-line related, where these receivers were in the progression idk. Probably a combination of it all.

 

It’s up to Dorsey to scheme guys open including Knox. Especially in the red zone Knox is a beast, and if he was featured more I think he’d meet expectations. I hope Dorsey takes a big leap as an OC this year because otherwise we are toast.