Another way to go. Trade way down and stack up #1 picks in 2024

[nosejob]

25 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I think you have over valued his worth regardless oh how many picks they have..

I went back and changed it. I messed up.

[MrEpsYtown]

46 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

I can see someone trading up for Bijan, absolutely, depending how far he falls. 

 

IMO, we'll see trade-ups and trade-downs, but perhaps fewer and for less of return for the team trading down. 

 

Some teams are desperate and think they're smarter than everyone else. It's the idea behind Massey-Thaler. We'll see a few, I think. 

 

 

I definitely think there will be movement up and down, I just don't think future first-round picks will be in play at 27. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I could see trading out of the first.  They need a LB, a T, a WR, and a DT.  

 

4 picks through round 3 would likely target those 4 positions, so if you could get 2 picks for the 1st that would be ideal.  

 

 

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I definitely think there will be movement up and down, I just don't think future first-round picks will be in play at 27. 

 

Nah - me neither.  What good are future picks when you want to win a super bowl this year?  If anything, trade future picks.  

[Brand J]

13 hours ago, DCofNC said:

All depends on who falls, but if the right value is there, trade back.  I could honestly see the Bills going the other way and going up to land a guy.   It SHOULD be a cheap year to move based on the reports of lack of talent at premium positions, so if we see a situation like we saw when Lamb and Jefferson fell, I’d be fine going up 10 spots to land a difference maker.

Technically the receiver who fell in that class was T Higgins. Jefferson was thought by many to be the 4th best. The Eagles picked Reagor ahead of him, but all the draft talk I remember had Jefferson, Higgins, Reagor and Aiyuk around the same grade.
 

GMs missed on Jefferson, one of the beliefs was that he was a slot only WR. When Brandon Beane said he didn’t think he could get high enough to land one of the top three (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs), he thought it’d be best to make the move for Diggs. He also said he didn’t want to suck badly enough to draft a receiver of Ja’marr Chase’s ability, but clearly had one right there (and had a couple in the 2nd round in earlier drafts AJ Brown/DK Metcalf), so Jefferson was a missed evaluation, just like the others.

[newcam2012]

47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I believe you missed the point when you said, "The issue of it being a weak draft is really not in play. It's about perceived value, needs of the team, and a desire to get their player especially if trading up or back makes sense." 

 

It being a weak draft is absolutely in play, without the slightest question. Yeah, it's the three factors you cited, but in weak drafts there will precisely be fewer players with perceived value and lower desires to get guys with less talent.

 

Yes, your three factors  matter, but there are certainly other factors, certainly including the weak draft.

 

If that's your premise, it's unclear what you mean. If you mean "on the cheap" compared to the traditional draft pick chart, I think you're wrong. Players at any given pick are likely to be less better than the guys available to you at your original pick than in strong years. There aren't as likely to be as many teams as usual offering trade-ups at the value they'd give in ordinary years. So if teams aren't willing to accept trade-downs with a bit lower rewards than usual, I expect we won't see many trades.

 

If you mean "on the cheap" meaning compared to the differential of scouting scores between the players, I'd expect things to look much like normal, but with teams that want trade-downs saying, "Hey, look at the draft pick charts, you're not offering enough," and the teams that want trade-ups saying, "Hey, we want the guy, but not that much. He's not worth a #27 in most years."

 

 

 

I can see someone trading up for Bijan, absolutely, depending how far he falls. 

 

IMO, we'll see trade-ups and trade-downs, but perhaps fewer and for less of return for the team trading down. 

 

Some teams are desperate and think they're smarter than everyone else. It's the idea behind Massey-Thaler. We'll see a few, I think. 

 

Once again, I don't disagree with your post. It's pretty spot on. 

 

I never addressed the issue of the frequency or lack of for trades and draft movement either way. Of course, a weak draft as you have pounded out factors in that. 

 

I was simply referring to a weak draft slowing the Bills to possibly get someone inn the cheap. I don't believe that's the case. I believe teams will still use their trading charts and scores. Hope that clarifies things. 

[Aussie Joe]

23 minutes ago, nosejob said:

 

I screwed up. It should have been Ed for 65 161 201

Still over… 104 would get it done 

[nosejob]

7 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Still over… 104 would get it done 

Nope. Anything beyond a 3rd is cutting the nose off to spite the face. I'd probably would accept 73, but no lower.  I can see D'meco Ryans bringing in a hometown fave and do better with him than we have done.

Why wait and pay next year's FA price?

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Nope. Anything beyond a 3rd is cutting the nose off to spite the face. I'd probably would accept 73, but no lower.  I can see D'meco Ryans bringing in a hometown fave and do better with him than we have done.

Why wait and pay next year's FA price?

Lol.. ok… They are going to give up three picks for him to make you happy

Edited March 29, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, Chaos said:

Seems like a consensu opinion that the 2023 draft class is weak.  One possibility is trading way down and adding some #1 picks in 2024, and recieving back some late picks in the 2023 draft.  In this case we add the lions 2024#1 and the vikings 2024 #1 to go with the Bills 2024 #1.   This will make the 2024 draft more fun to discuss. Some of the players draft below would have an actual chance to make the 53 in 2023. 

 

How do they get the Vikings and Lions 2024 #1 picks?

[nosejob]

33 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Lol.. ok… They are going to give up three picks for him to make you happy

Well I guess he's playing then. Ed's gonna have a year like Edmunds did last year.....hopefully more impactful, so....so be it.

 

BTW I still wouldn't mind Kancey either way.

Edited March 29, 2023 by nosejob

[Chaos]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

How do they get the Vikings and Lions 2024 #1 picks?

It is shown in the image, albeit it is small.  With the Lions the Bills trade 2023 #1 and 2023$7 for the Lions #2024 #1 and the Lions 2024#7 plus the Lions 2023 #5 (152) and Lions 2023 6th (183).  Those 2023 picks turn into Andre Iosivas and Starling Thomas.

[billsfan89]

I wouldn't mind the Bills trading down from 27 to the mid '30s to pick up some future picks. The Bills can still get a good amount of impact from a player at pick 35ish. Ideally, the Bills could grab a mid and late-round pick in 2023 and a 3rd in 2024. But I don't see the Bills getting a 1st from any team, teams are reluctant to give up future firsts to trade into the late 1st.

[Bag of Milk]

16 hours ago, Chaos said:

I don't make the mock draft rules. PFF does. 

Is that you Cris Collinsworth?

[Airseven]

With this draft and this amount of needs, the prototype Pats-trade-down-out-of-R1 would be ideal. I doubt #27 would fetch a '24 1st, but perhaps #27 to Carolina for #39, #93, and #145 would be a realistic template. I'd jump at that.   

[Doc Brown]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea they are the four scenarios.... not sure I agree with your order. I think:

 

1) Beane stands pat and takes a 2nd round guy at #27

Rationale: I think anyone outside the top 15 is likely doing this. I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to trade up into the late 1st from teams because of the general weakness of the class and because I think all 4 QBs (most likely trade up targets) are gone by this point.

 

2) Beane trades up to the early 20s for his last remaining 1st round grade 

Rationale: He did it last year and if ever there was a year to not be worried about giving up assets later in a draft it is this year. 

 

3) We trade back out of the first

Rationale: I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to come up for the reason I explained earlier but let's say the Raiders want to get aggressive (McDaniels needs to show real progress year 2 especially after voluntarily giving up a good QB) and the Bills were willing to take a bit less than the trade value chart says - say the Raiders 3rd round comp pick and one of their early 5ths I could imagine a deal being done. 

 

4) A 1st round talent slides to us at #27

Rationale: I only have 12 first round grades. If you include all 4 QBs that gets you to 15. That is a lot of sliding someone needs to do. It would only be an off-field or injury reason and the Bills under this regime have been very risk averse in those circumstances on draft day. 

 

Interesting and well thought out.  I thought my top three scenarios were pretty close as far as likelihood.  The last one (trading back out of the first) is far less likely imo because of the lack of first round talent in this draft and many of the teams picking say between 20 and 26 will also theoretically be looking to trade back. 

 

The tricky part is we don't know how many first round grades the Bills have and who they are.  They may have a higher opinion of a player than the consensus and they know it so they can just sit tight and take that player at 27.  We may never know if it's a reach or not because they'll never tell us. 

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Technically the receiver who fell in that class was T Higgins. Jefferson was thought by many to be the 4th best. The Eagles picked Reagor ahead of him, but all the draft talk I remember had Jefferson, Higgins, Reagor and Aiyuk around the same grade.
 

GMs missed on Jefferson, one of the beliefs was that he was a slot only WR. When Brandon Beane said he didn’t think he could get high enough to land one of the top three (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs), he thought it’d be best to make the move for Diggs. He also said he didn’t want to suck badly enough to draft a receiver of Ja’marr Chase’s ability, but clearly had one right there (and had a couple in the 2nd round in earlier drafts AJ Brown/DK Metcalf), so Jefferson was a missed evaluation, just like the others.

 

Nice add to the convo. 

 

I don't pretend to be up on the consensus chatter, but I looked them up.  NFL draft profiles, anyway, had a 1 grade on Jefferson, 1-2 on Aiyuk and Reagor, and a 2 grade on Higgins.  They mention Jefferson as being an "inside/outside possession receiver" which I don't think translates to "only a slot" - the thought was he could be used as a vertical threat or a slot, but maybe not a full route tree?

 

I think a big driver for the Diggs trade was getting a polished, already-NFL level WR who could help level-up their raw QB vs. at the end of the 1st round, a guy who might need some time to develop.  In Allen's 3rd year, the clock was ticking on making up their mind as to whether he was The Man and worth extending to a big contract.

 

Yeah, I was really ticked off by Beane's "don't want to suck badly enough to draft Ja'Marr Chase".  We were drafting at #9 in 2019, and while apparently it wasn't a great year for 1st year WR talent, we could have chosen a WR in the 2nd who could have really helped us.   DK Metcalf went at the bottom of the 2nd and AJ Brown midway.  GTFO Beane with this "suck badly enough for Chase" or do-nothing false choice.

[CorkScrewHill]

On 3/28/2023 at 9:57 PM, Chaos said:

Seems like a consensu opinion that the 2023 draft class is weak.  One possibility is trading way down and adding some #1 picks in 2024, and recieving back some late picks in the 2023 draft.  In this case we add the lions 2024#1 and the vikings 2024 #1 to go with the Bills 2024 #1.   This will make the 2024 draft more fun to discuss. Some of the players draft below would have an actual chance to make the 53 in 2023. 

If I were a GM and my team was really good .. I would always look to sell my late first round pick to a team that is likely to be bad the following year.  If you get a 3rd and 5th this year and first next year from the Cardinals, Saints, or the like .. that would set up for 2024 early pick and another chance to sell my late 2024 first round pick.

[Simon Says]

On 3/29/2023 at 10:57 AM, nosejob said:

Trade Ed to his hometown Houston for picks 65 and 161 and 201.

If Robinson somehow is there at 27 trade with Saints for 29 and 71.

 

Then...I put my trust in McBeane.

 

Picks  29       

           40       

           59       

           65

           71        

           130

           137

           161

           201

           205

Plenty of ammo for Beane to do his wizardry....plus an extra 10.7

I thought about Oliver for BOTH of Houston 3rd rounders; 65 and 73?

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Herb Nightly said:

I thought about Oliver for BOTH of Houston 3rd rounders; 65 and 73?

Oliver isn't worthis his 10.7 million cap hit.  Who is going to give up picks and absorb his cap hit for a 1 year over priced player who becomes a free agent next year. 

[skibum]

With Beane and Company, it seems like just about every option is always on the table. They certainly don't always do what we expect they will do. I think they are very good at preparing options for all kinds of scenarios, and they are willing to commit to the decisions that come from that prep.

 

If, when the time comes, they feel like they are in a better spot by trading down, then I'm sure that's what they'll do.