Down Years Will Come. When You Have an Elite QB, Even Down Years Aren't So Bad.

[The Frankish Reich]

We're not exactly sure where the 2023 Bills will be in the competition cycle. It kind of looks like a retooling (certainly not rebuilding) year. Maybe it will work and we'll easily win the division again and make a playoff run. But at some time - as it does for every team other than that one whose name must not be spoken - there will be down years. Excepting that one exception, the question is this: When you have an elite (on a HOF track) QB, what do "down years" look like? Answer: Not so bad at all, and certainly not so long.

 

Examples: current (or recently retired) QBs who have been/are on a HOF trajectory through a 10 year career:

 

1. Aaron Rodgers. Since taking over as starter and going 6-10, his record as a starter was under .500 just once - a 6-9-1 in 2018. And then he and the Pack immediately rebounded to 3 consecutive 13-3 records until going 8-9 last year. In short, his team (with him at QB) had ONE down year over the course of 13 seasons. Not bad.

 

2. Drew Brees. Yes, I'll even include the Chargers years. After an 8-8 rookie season and a terrible 2-9 the following year, he put up the following seasons for the Chargers and then the Saints:

 

11-4

9-7, 9-7

10-6 (first Saints year), 7-9, 8-8, 13-2, 11-5, 13-3, 7-9, 7-8, 7-9, 11-5, 13-2, 8-3, 9-3

 

One mediocre two-year streak with the Saints, and then another mediocre 3 year streak. No horrible seasons among them; just mediocre retooling years. And 8 seriously winning seasons in the rest of his Saints career.

 

3. Peyton Manning. Terrible 3-13 rookie year. Then one 6-10 season in his third year, but other than that never worse than 10-6 in his Colts career. Then a season on the IL, then a Broncos career of 13-3, 13-3, 12-4, 7-2 (yeah, that one goes to the defense). So ... basically the teams he QB'd had ONE bad season out of 16 following his rookie year.

 

4. Russell Wilson. Yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But as he went into his 10th season he was clearly on the HOF trajectory. Started out 11-5 as a rookie, then his worst season through his age 31 season was a 9-7. Then 6-8 in his last Seattle season, and the horrid 4-11 as a Bronco. But still: a 9 year run in which he always had a winning record, including a 13-3, and two 12-4s.

 

I do think its not too early to say that Josh Allen, barring serious injury or erosion of his skills by taking repeated poundings*, is on the elite/HOF track. And so things may get "bad" in Orchard Park, but they'll likely be Drew Brees/Saints bad (a 2-3 year run of mediocrity), or even better, Aaron Rodgers bad (think 7-10 one year, then a quick rebound). QBs are so overwhelmingly important in today's NFL that if you have consistently exceptional QB play you just don't ever have lengthy downturns or (barring injury) disastrous 5-12 type seasons. I think the Bills are doing the right thing now. It's a little frustrating because we were so close, and now other teams have caught up or even passed us. But I can live with the down seasons the other greats produced. We will be back. And back. And back again.

 

*This is the wild card. I've also been looking at aging patterns of QBs who depend heavily on their running skills. Not "mobile QBs" who scramble to buy time (think Mahomes) and only try to run downhill when a critical game is on the line. I'm thinking of the guys who consistently had 400 or 500 yard rushing seasons. QBs who feature the designed (or option) run as a key feature of their game (and, in turn, their success). Guys like Newton, Wilson, McNair, McNabb, Cunningham. And now guys like Allen and Hurts and Lamar and Murray. And I gotta admit it, I'm a little worried. More on that later.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[Success]

It's what Burrow said, imo.  Our window is wide open as long as Allen is playing.

 

Not that we won't have "down" years, but that probably means getting a WC spot.  

 

[The Frankish Reich]

44 minutes ago, Success said:

It's what Burrow said, imo.  Our window is wide open as long as Allen is playing.

 

Not that we won't have "down" years, but that probably means getting a WC spot.  

 

Or at least being in the running for a playoff spot right up until the final 2 weeks. Believe me, after two decades of futility, I can live with this kind of drought.

[Kwai San]

A mighty tome was written by @The Frankish Reich which I think is one of the cooler screen names here on this site.  Sadly I agree about the running QB issue even tho JA17's injuries seem to happen whilst in the pocket.  ALL the more reason for massive OL upgrade!!  Good read!

 

Thanks!

Edited March 27, 2023 by Kwai San

[Frostbite]

I dont care if we have 9 wins and get the last wildcard spot, anything can happen with Josh at the helm. A down year will be 7 or less wins with no shot at the playoffs which is hard to do with how Josh can carry the entire team to a win.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

but wait...they can't win a SB without DHopkins.

 

 

 

very rational and good post, OP.

[Einstein]

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

 

I have to agree.

 

For 17 years, a successful Bills season was, "making the playoffs."

This team is beyond that.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

38 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

who's to say they don't get 2?

 

no need to think failure when no one can predict the future. unless maybe you change your name from Albert to Michel.

 

the OP mention several examples (teams/QBs) that had down years in their career, yet still managed to raise the Lombardi.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

48 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

Not for a lot of Bills fans, obviously! 

 

This entire thread is about accepting failure and being happy with it...which many Bills fans seem to not mind doing, by nature.  I wonder if it's a WNY thing.

 

I'm a native WNYer and I hate this stuff.

 

Rationalization is a powerful drug in the land of Bills Mafia!

 

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Nextmanup

[Mister Defense]

This appears to now be a down year coming up, as this past year was. It was clear to most that by the time the playoffs came this year the Bills were playing with a lesser team than the Chiefs and Bengals.  My concern this year is that some other team(s) may also move ahead of the Bills, leaving us with even less hope that this  is 'the year'.

 

The Bills need to address their weak areas: wide receivers, offensive line, linebacker and so far are not coming through. That could change.

 

If I hear they are looking for 'depth' on the offensive line, once again, and so settling for mediocrity, and ditto for the wide receiver position, instead of addressing another fundamental weakness, then I will go into this season not expecting the Bills to compete for a championship.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

how is showing teams who had down years yet still won a SB, lowering expectations?

 

 

 

that's balderdash!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

how is showing teams who had down years yet still won a SB, lowering expectations?

 

 

 

that's balderdash!

This team should be selling out to win it all

 

not half-assing it. just mo

 

[gordong]

Sorry but our window is not open this year without some upgrades still needed.  and the bills are short on money and again next year.. we are entering a mini rebuild like it or not.  the defense is worse than last year. (better in secondary, worse at LB, As it stands,  worse at D-line)  we STILL can't rush the passer.

 Offense we have made a couple good moves but I still dont like our Online for run blocking. and brown would need to take a huge leap. WR we need a #2 because other teams are just going to take Diggs away and are any of the WR they signed good enough to take over a game if needed? I don't see it?  RB we got much better IF he can stay healthy. going to be a really tuff road this year considering the division and conf.

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by gordong

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

This team should be selling out to win it all

 

not half-assing it. just mo

 

let's see what the end result is before claiming lowering expectations. still have some time before kicking off the season. I can't predict whether my expectations will be raised or lowered until the roster is set at 52 players. even then, I'm willing to, with much anticipation, see how the season plays out.

 

I can however realize bbfs is real and it can create doubt until they actually (with hopes they do) show the baby. 🏆

 

time will tell and I still have a little time left on this earth to watch, enjoy and pull for my team and looking for at least 1 before I die. 

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

OP you are correct. Only one team wins a Championship per year.

However it is interesting that the QBs you referenced in the OP all have Championships.

Bills and Allen don't have one yet. Thus the anxiety of a window closing or not knowing if McDermott and Beane are good enough to win a Championship.  

 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Not for a lot of Bills fans, obviously! 

 

This entire thread is about accepting failure and being happy with it...which many Bills fans seem to not mind doing, by nature.  I wonder if it's a WNY thing.

 

I'm a native WNYer and I hate this stuff.

 

Rationalization is a powerful drug in the land of Bills Mafia!

 

It's very sad.

[dje85]

This thread is a joke (mainly the replys). We went 13-3 in the regular season last year and outside of middle linebacker we have upgraded or maintained status quo most positions  from last year.  Our biggest issue at the end of the season were the injury bug that took Vonn and Hyde early in the season. We will have them back healthy next season. I don't understand where all the sky is falling is coming from. We are still the team to beat in the East (The Jets haven't proven crap and the jury is still out on if Tua can stay healthy.) Step off the ledge friends. It will be okay.

Edited March 28, 2023 by dje85

[frostbitmic]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

That's why they play the game ... That and fame and bank accounts overflowing with cash.

 

As long as the Bills have Josh Allen they always have a chance, give him what he needs and good things will happen.