Bills D without the "Maine Event"

[Pete]

22 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

MLB is a very easy position to fill if you’re willing to spend a 1st or high 2nd them. 
 

MLB, RB, and S are pretty easy fills with high picks. 

Donte Whitner and CJ Spiller disagree

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Donte Whitner and CJ Spiller disagree

What? Whitner was a draft and start from day 1. Spiller could’ve easily started as a rookie. Same as James Cook. We had starters already at RB.

[Pete]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What? Whitner was a draft and start from day 1. Spiller could’ve easily started as a rookie. Same as James Cook. We had starters already at RB.

Opportunity cost.  Both were lousy draft picks 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

Opportunity cost.  Both were lousy draft picks 

That’s not the point. Bad value because they are positions you can easily find starters.

 

[OldTimer1960]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

2017.  Tremaine Edmunds was just a gleam in the eye of Brandon Beane's newly assembled scouting teams.

 

The Bills went to the playoffs, and lost in the WC round.  This was arguably a result of their total inability to pass with Tyrod Taylor at QB, plus having Shady McCoy playing on one ankle, not on the D.  The D held the Jags to 87 pass yards and Leonard Fournette to 57 rush yards and lost, 10-3. 

 

The defense finished the regular season 18th on points, so a bit worse than middle-of-the-league.  They were opportunistic: 9th for TO.  They were bend-don't-break, 2nd for passing TDs given up, but 20th for passing yards and 29th for rushing yards and 32nd for rushing TDs.  The memory I have is that it was felt our pass D was over-rated, because teams could just run on us - unless we sold out to stop the run.

 

So I thought it would be interesting to look back at what that defense looked like, the year before Tremaine Edmunds was drafted, when we went to playoffs without him.

 

DL:  Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams-Adolphus Washington - (initially Marcel Dareus)-Jerry Hughes (plus rotational players)

LB: Zo Alexander-Preston Brown-Ramon Humber (moving to Matt Milano as the year went on)

CB: Tre White, EJ Gaines

Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer

 

Preston Brown, White (because McDermott won't start rookies) Hyde, and Poyer played close to 100% of the defensive snaps.

 

DL assessment:

Shaq Lawson was our 2016 1st rounder.  Lawson had shoulder surgery after OTAs and missed the first 6 games of his rookie season.  I remember being under-impressed by him.

Kyle Williams: "Meet the Meatball!" Bills legend, 'nuff said.  But, he may have started the Beane love affair with DTs whose heart and want-to are bigger than the frames.  Not what he once was, but still a very very good player in 2017 at age 34.

Adolphus Washington: Bills 2016 3rd rounder.  Started 10 of 15 games in 2017 in a DL rotation, played about half the snaps.  Was mysteriously cut after 1 game in 2018, bounced around a couple teams, and out of football the next year.

Marcell Dareus: was in the mix and very effective against the run for 5 of the first 6 games, until we traded him to Jax

Jerry Hughes: another Bills legend.  Very good player still at that point, a bit of a hot-head though "Meet Gary!"

Rotational players included a crew of guys I have no memory of. 

 

LB assessment:

Preston Brown, MLB, was the Bills 2014 3rd round pick.  He started outside on the 2014 #4 defense under Schwartz, but Rex Ryan moved him inside in his 3-4.  I thought he was a decent player, but lacked the sideline to sideline range and coverage skills McDermott coveted.  But as I recall, they mostly made it work.  We moved on after the season.

Zo Alexander, OLB: played ~half the defensive snaps,  32% to 94%.  One Man Gang, what else is there to say?  Smart, well prepared, hard working, and went hard; still had it at 34.

Ramon Humber: OLB: STer in 2016 but started the season at age 30 playing almost 100% of the snaps, then was injured

Matt Milano: started out behind Humber on the depth chart but took more and more snaps when he was injured then kept them when he returned ('cuz McDermott rookies)

In these days, the Bills played more 4-3 base. Brown was on the field full time, and Humber started out that way, but they ended the year mixing it up situationally.

 

CB assessment:

Tre White made more mistakes then, but his quality was clear and yes he was a rookie and yes McDermott played him.

EJ Gaines played 100% of the snaps when healthy but missed 5 games due to injury and parts of 3 others.  We didn't bring him back.  I think Shareece Wright, who was a 2011 3rd round pick from the Chargers, subbed in for him.
 

I'm not sure who was our Nickel back that year. But even then, IIRC, we hardly played any dime, using Milano as a hybrid role or Zo as our "heavy nickel"

 

Safety: the foundational year of Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde.  They had more athleticism and less wisdom; the mind-meld was only just getting started.

 

What's My Point?  Well, a lot of folks (including me) are worried about what life looks like for the Bills D without Tremaine Edmunds.  And I don't know.  But I do remember that a lot of people felt Preston Brown was not very good as a MLB, yet the Bills did manage to snag a playoff game and field, at least, a middling D.

 

I would say our current DL of Von Miller (hopefully) - Ed Oliver - DaQuan Jones - Greg Rousseau is better than what we fielded in 2017

CB, if healthy again, Tre White and Kaiir Elam has potential to be better than Tre White (rookie) and EJ Gaines/Shareece Wright

Safety, same guys! Older and wiser, so maybe that's a push

Nickle, Taron Johnson is very good

LB - Milano is now a Force.

 

So whoever is the MLB in 2023 should have a lot more quality pieces around him.  We may not be a #2 D or maybe not a top-10 D, but we can hopefully get 'er done.

 

 

 

I think it’s possible that the middle-of-the-pack defensive rating was partially due to how low scoring the Bills’ offense was - opponents really didn’t need to score a lot to beat that Bills’ team, so I would guess the opponents were conservative on offense once they got a lead.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Opportunity cost.  Both were lousy draft picks 

I had to look it up but with Singletary now gone it turns out CJ Spiller ended up one spot higher than Devin in all time Bills rushing yards. They sit at #9 and 10. Their stats were very close. I wouldn’t have guessed that to be the case. 

[first_and_ten]

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

2017.  Tremaine Edmunds was just a gleam in the eye of Brandon Beane's newly assembled scouting teams.

 

The Bills went to the playoffs, and lost in the WC round.  This was arguably a result of their total inability to pass with Tyrod Taylor at QB, plus having Shady McCoy playing on one ankle, not on the D.  The D held the Jags to 87 pass yards and Leonard Fournette to 57 rush yards and lost, 10-3. 

 

The defense finished the regular season 18th on points, so a bit worse than middle-of-the-league.  They were opportunistic: 9th for TO.  They were bend-don't-break, 2nd for passing TDs given up, but 20th for passing yards and 29th for rushing yards and 32nd for rushing TDs.  The memory I have is that it was felt our pass D was over-rated, because teams could just run on us - unless we sold out to stop the run.

 

So I thought it would be interesting to look back at what that defense looked like, the year before Tremaine Edmunds was drafted, when we went to playoffs without him.

 

DL:  Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams-Adolphus Washington - (initially Marcel Dareus)-Jerry Hughes (plus rotational players)

LB: Zo Alexander-Preston Brown-Ramon Humber (moving to Matt Milano as the year went on)

CB: Tre White, EJ Gaines

Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer

 

Preston Brown, White (because McDermott won't start rookies) Hyde, and Poyer played close to 100% of the defensive snaps.

 

DL assessment:

Shaq Lawson was our 2016 1st rounder.  Lawson had shoulder surgery after OTAs and missed the first 6 games of his rookie season.  I remember being under-impressed by him.

Kyle Williams: "Meet the Meatball!" Bills legend, 'nuff said.  But, he may have started the Beane love affair with DTs whose heart and want-to are bigger than the frames.  Not what he once was, but still a very very good player in 2017 at age 34.

Adolphus Washington: Bills 2016 3rd rounder.  Started 10 of 15 games in 2017 in a DL rotation, played about half the snaps.  Was mysteriously cut after 1 game in 2018, bounced around a couple teams, and out of football the next year.

Marcell Dareus: was in the mix and very effective against the run for 5 of the first 6 games, until we traded him to Jax

Jerry Hughes: another Bills legend.  Very good player still at that point, a bit of a hot-head though "Meet Gary!"

Rotational players included a crew of guys I have no memory of. 

 

LB assessment:

Preston Brown, MLB, was the Bills 2014 3rd round pick.  He started outside on the 2014 #4 defense under Schwartz, but Rex Ryan moved him inside in his 3-4.  I thought he was a decent player, but lacked the sideline to sideline range and coverage skills McDermott coveted.  But as I recall, they mostly made it work.  We moved on after the season.

Zo Alexander, OLB: played ~half the defensive snaps,  32% to 94%.  One Man Gang, what else is there to say?  Smart, well prepared, hard working, and went hard; still had it at 34.

Ramon Humber: OLB: STer in 2016 but started the season at age 30 playing almost 100% of the snaps, then was injured

Matt Milano: started out behind Humber on the depth chart but took more and more snaps when he was injured then kept them when he returned ('cuz McDermott rookies)

In these days, the Bills played more 4-3 base. Brown was on the field full time, and Humber started out that way, but they ended the year mixing it up situationally.

 

CB assessment:

Tre White made more mistakes then, but his quality was clear and yes he was a rookie and yes McDermott played him.

EJ Gaines played 100% of the snaps when healthy but missed 5 games due to injury and parts of 3 others.  We didn't bring him back.  I think Shareece Wright, who was a 2011 3rd round pick from the Chargers, subbed in for him.
 

I'm not sure who was our Nickel back that year. But even then, IIRC, we hardly played any dime, using Milano as a hybrid role or Zo as our "heavy nickel"

 

Safety: the foundational year of Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde.  They had more athleticism and less wisdom; the mind-meld was only just getting started.

 

What's My Point?  Well, a lot of folks (including me) are worried about what life looks like for the Bills D without Tremaine Edmunds.  And I don't know.  But I do remember that a lot of people felt Preston Brown was not very good as a MLB, yet the Bills did manage to snag a playoff game and field, at least, a middling D.

 

I would say our current DL of Von Miller (hopefully) - Ed Oliver - DaQuan Jones - Greg Rousseau is better than what we fielded in 2017

CB, if healthy again, Tre White and Kaiir Elam has potential to be better than Tre White (rookie) and EJ Gaines/Shareece Wright

Safety, same guys! Older and wiser, so maybe that's a push

Nickle, Taron Johnson is very good

LB - Milano is now a Force.

 

So whoever is the MLB in 2023 should have a lot more quality pieces around him.  We may not be a #2 D or maybe not a top-10 D, but we can hopefully get 'er done.

 

 

 

 

The Bills need to build the team around Josh. Meaning better Oline and more weapons. This is how to win in this league

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

Another difference between the 2017 squad and 2023 is that in 2017 the team had Leslie Frazier as DC and in 2023 they will not.

The question is whether this is a positive or negative development. 

[uticaclub]

No tape on the 2017 defense, we've been playing the same scheme for 6 years now and offense know how to attack. My only problem with Edmunds is that we drafted him at 19, developed him and let him walk for nothing, instead of drafting a guy that would have had a more immediate impact. A positive of losing him is we will be forced to make adjustments and changes. 

[smward8]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

People are about to find out that this is not true
 

Tremaine Edmunds made it very difficult to work the middle of the field, and regardless of who we draft we’re going to see teams start to do it

 

Did he make huge hits know was his coverage bad at times yes we are going to see that. It’s like that for every linebacker.

 

But it’s going to be several million dollars cheaper to watch it

I think you're right. Somebody did an analysis of how Milan and Edmunds complicated other team's passing games because of their speed and athleticism.    The D was built around slowing/stopping the quick passing game.   However, the run defense suffered at times - particularly on draws and some misdirection plays.

With Edmunds gone I think we may see more 4-3, with Bernard opposite Milano on the outside.  Not sure who on the roster can be the MLB unless the think Dodson can do it. Not sure he's enough of a thumper to really take on linemen.

[BillsShredder83]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

There was nothing mysterious about the Adolphus Washington cut. He was pretty much the worst starter at any position in the NFL the second half of 2017. Garbage. 

 

He was. The only short armed corner in the entirity of the regime.

Was that the dude with the gun charge? 3rd rder I believe? Yikes

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

No tape on the 2017 defense, we've been playing the same scheme for 6 years now and offense know how to attack. My only problem with Edmunds is that we drafted him at 19, developed him and let him walk for nothing, instead of drafting a guy that would have had a more immediate impact. A positive of losing him is we will be forced to make adjustments and changes. 

Stats wise, Edmunds best year was his rookie year.  121 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 FF, 2 Ints and 12 PD and then made the pro bowl in years 2 and 3. He made an immediate impact IMO. A lot of anti Edmunds folks even admitted last year was a really good year for him too, maybe his best. I would take those results all over again. He's not the reason we haven't won a SB. If he didn't command such a high dollar contract, I think we would have signed him up. 

[uticaclub]

22 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Stats wise, Edmunds best year was his rookie year.  121 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 FF, 2 Ints and 12 PD and then made the pro bowl in years 2 and 3. He made an immediate impact IMO. A lot of anti Edmunds folks even admitted last year was a really good year for him too, maybe his best. I would take those results all over again. He's not the reason we haven't won a SB. If he didn't command such a high dollar contract, I think we would have signed him up. 

I think his last year was his best year and he’ll continue to improve.

 

His rookie year stats are padded because he was on the field more as our offense couldn't sustain drives yet. Look at MLB stats on bad teams, I think Preston Brown once lead the league in tackles with the Bills. He's not the sole reason we haven't won but he's part of a flawed philosophy. If he didn't demand a high-dollar contract, we shouldn't want him back because that would mean he wasn't good. Making the moves we made to draft him, he needed to be a cornerstone of the franchise and we let him walk instead of signing him long-term. I understand why we didn't but I’m disappointed in the end result of the draft pick.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

Another difference between the 2017 squad and 2023 is that in 2017 the team had Leslie Frazier as DC and in 2023 they will not.

The question is whether this is a positive or negative development. 

 

It's a good question, but I feel McDermott was more directly involved with the D his first couple years and tried to back off to build the impression of Frazier as an independent entity.

[ColoradoBills]

If it ends up that no new MLBs of any worth are acquired by camp, I will be concerned.  Until then something will happen, and I don't

believe it has to be done using a 1st or 2nd round pick.

 

It's one hole left to fill and Beane will get something done.  He has options.

 

 

[Lost]

God help us if Terell Bernard starts at MLB this season.   One of Beane's worst picks of the last 5 seasons.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

Stats wise, Edmunds best year was his rookie year.  121 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 FF, 2 Ints and 12 PD and then made the pro bowl in years 2 and 3. He made an immediate impact IMO. A lot of anti Edmunds folks even admitted last year was a really good year for him too, maybe his best. I would take those results all over again. He's not the reason we haven't won a SB. If he didn't command such a high dollar contract, I think we would have signed him up. 

 

Year 3 was his worst year IMO. I thought he had some struggled as a rookie, but made some plays too. Teams used misdirection against him a lot and got him to bite. Year 2 he still hit the wrong gap a lot in the run game but was excellent in coverage. Year 3 he had a down year. He got hurt early and he was particularly brutal in Tennessee. It was the covid year and the Bills D started really slow as a whole and only got going 2nd half of the year. I thought year 4 he started slow but played really well down the stretch.

 

Year 5 was his best year as a Bill IMO because while the stats you quote were better as a rookie he posted his lowest completion % given up, lowest passer rating when targeted, lowest yards per attempt and yards per completion surrendered, his fewest missed tackles and gave up ZERO touchdowns in coverage. 

[billsfan89]

I suspect the Bills defense will be taking a step back in 2023, not just because of Termaine but also the absence of Von until late in the season and some other factors. That being said assuming the Bills fill out the Dline and LB core with some combination of draft picks and lower level free agents I think the defense will still be a quality unit.

 

If the defense wants to be top 5 then I think it’s going to require critical development from the younger Dline players, health from the safety combo, health generally speaking (that’s for any team obviously) and Tre to come back to or close to his pre injury form.

 

Then hopefully this team can get Von back in December to tune up for the playoffs.

[mjt328]

When it comes to Tremaine Edmunds, the timing has just been awful for the Bills.

 

His development was just a little slow... which is why I believe the Bills kept waiting to consider an extension.  If we saw this kind of play in Year 3-4, I think Brandon Beane would have locked him up long ago.  But by the time he finally turned into the player we hoped for, Edmunds had priced himself out of our range.

 

This also happens to be an AWFUL year for finding replacement Linebackers.  Free agency didn't have many decent options.  And by most counts, this year's LB draft class is extremely weak and thin.  

 

Does anyone really believe a Super Bowl team can go into training camp with Tyrell Dodson, Terrel Bernard and Baylon Spector competing for the starting MLB spot?  If not, Beane will be stuck on Draft Day with an absolutely massive hole at MLB.  Which means he will need to reach with either his 1st or 2nd Round pick to get one of the few decent prospects available.  It's an ugly scenario.

 

[Back2Buff]

Anyone but Dodson.  He was brutal last year.

 

I went back and looked at twitter comments from people who watched Bernard while he was playing games at Baylor.  They all had really good things to say.  He looks massive in his latest pics from his vacation.  I'm willing to give him a chance.