Bills D without the "Maine Event"

[Beck Water]

2017.  Tremaine Edmunds was just a gleam in the eye of Brandon Beane's newly assembled scouting teams.

 

The Bills went to the playoffs, and lost in the WC round.  This was arguably a result of their total inability to pass with Tyrod Taylor at QB, plus having Shady McCoy playing on one ankle, not on the D.  The D held the Jags to 87 pass yards and Leonard Fournette to 57 rush yards and lost, 10-3. 

 

The defense finished the regular season 18th on points, so a bit worse than middle-of-the-league.  They were opportunistic: 9th for TO.  They were bend-don't-break, 2nd for passing TDs given up, but 20th for passing yards and 29th for rushing yards and 32nd for rushing TDs.  The memory I have is that it was felt our pass D was over-rated, because teams could just run on us - unless we sold out to stop the run.

 

So I thought it would be interesting to look back at what that defense looked like, the year before Tremaine Edmunds was drafted, when we went to playoffs without him.

 

DL:  Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams-Adolphus Washington - (initially Marcel Dareus)-Jerry Hughes (plus rotational players)

LB: Zo Alexander-Preston Brown-Ramon Humber (moving to Matt Milano as the year went on)

CB: Tre White, EJ Gaines

Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer

 

Preston Brown, White (because McDermott won't start rookies) Hyde, and Poyer played close to 100% of the defensive snaps.

 

DL assessment:

Shaq Lawson was our 2016 1st rounder.  Lawson had shoulder surgery after OTAs and missed the first 6 games of his rookie season.  I remember being under-impressed by him.

Kyle Williams: "Meet the Meatball!" Bills legend, 'nuff said.  But, he may have started the Beane love affair with DTs whose heart and want-to are bigger than the frames.  Not what he once was, but still a very very good player in 2017 at age 34.

Adolphus Washington: Bills 2016 3rd rounder.  Started 10 of 15 games in 2017 in a DL rotation, played about half the snaps.  Was mysteriously cut after 1 game in 2018, bounced around a couple teams, and out of football the next year.

Marcell Dareus: was in the mix and very effective against the run for 5 of the first 6 games, until we traded him to Jax

Jerry Hughes: another Bills legend.  Very good player still at that point, a bit of a hot-head though "Meet Gary!"

Rotational players included a crew of guys I have no memory of. 

 

LB assessment:

Preston Brown, MLB, was the Bills 2014 3rd round pick.  He started outside on the 2014 #4 defense under Schwartz, but Rex Ryan moved him inside in his 3-4.  I thought he was a decent player, but lacked the sideline to sideline range and coverage skills McDermott coveted.  But as I recall, they mostly made it work.  We moved on after the season.

Zo Alexander, OLB: played ~half the defensive snaps,  32% to 94%.  One Man Gang, what else is there to say?  Smart, well prepared, hard working, and went hard; still had it at 34.

Ramon Humber: OLB: STer in 2016 but started the season at age 30 playing almost 100% of the snaps, then was injured

Matt Milano: started out behind Humber on the depth chart but took more and more snaps when he was injured then kept them when he returned ('cuz McDermott rookies)

In these days, the Bills played more 4-3 base. Brown was on the field full time, and Humber started out that way, but they ended the year mixing it up situationally.

 

CB assessment:

Tre White made more mistakes then, but his quality was clear and yes he was a rookie and yes McDermott played him.

EJ Gaines played 100% of the snaps when healthy but missed 5 games due to injury and parts of 3 others.  We didn't bring him back.  I think Shareece Wright, who was a 2011 3rd round pick from the Chargers, subbed in for him.
 

I'm not sure who was our Nickel back that year. But even then, IIRC, we hardly played any dime, using Milano as a hybrid role or Zo as our "heavy nickel"

 

Safety: the foundational year of Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde.  They had more athleticism and less wisdom; the mind-meld was only just getting started.

 

What's My Point?  Well, a lot of folks (including me) are worried about what life looks like for the Bills D without Tremaine Edmunds.  And I don't know.  But I do remember that a lot of people felt Preston Brown was not very good as a MLB, yet the Bills did manage to snag a playoff game and field, at least, a middling D.

 

I would say our current DL of Von Miller (hopefully) - Ed Oliver - DaQuan Jones - Greg Rousseau is better than what we fielded in 2017

CB, if healthy again, Tre White and Kaiir Elam has potential to be better than Tre White (rookie) and EJ Gaines/Shareece Wright

Safety, same guys! Older and wiser, so maybe that's a push

Nickle, Taron Johnson is very good

LB - Milano is now a Force.

 

So whoever is the MLB in 2023 should have a lot more quality pieces around him.  We may not be a #2 D or maybe not a top-10 D, but we can hopefully get 'er done.

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2023 by Beck Water

[The Jokeman]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

2017.  Tremaine Edmunds was just a gleam in the eye of Brandon Beane's newly assembled scouting teams.

 

The Bills went to the playoffs, and lost in the WC round.  This was arguably a result of their total inability to pass with Tyrod Taylor at QB, plus having Shady McCoy playing on one ankle, not on the D.  The D held the Jags to 87 pass yards and Leonard Fournette to 57 rush yards and lost, 10-3. 

 

The defense finished the regular season 18th on points, so a bit worse than middle-of-the-league.  They were opportunistic: 9th for TO.  They were bend-don't-break, 2nd for passing TDs given up, but 20th for passing yards and 29th for rushing yards and 32nd for rushing TDs.  The memory I have is that it was felt our pass D was over-rated, because teams could just run on us - unless we sold out to stop the run.

 

So I thought it would be interesting to look back at what that defense looked like, the year before Tremaine Edmunds was drafted, when we went to playoffs without him.

 

DL:  Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams-Adolphus Washington - (initially Marcel Dareus)-Jerry Hughes (plus rotational players)

LB: Zo Alexander-Preston Brown-Ramon Humber (moving to Matt Milano as the year went on)

CB: Tre White, EJ Gaines

Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer

 

Preston Brown, White (because McDermott won't start rookies) Hyde, and Poyer played close to 100% of the defensive snaps.

 

DL assessment:

Shaq Lawson was our 2016 1st rounder.  Lawson had shoulder surgery after OTAs and missed the first 6 games of his rookie season.  I remember being under-impressed by him.

Kyle Williams: "Meet the Meatball!" Bills legend, 'nuff said.  But, he may have started the Beane love affair with DTs whose heart and want-to are bigger than the frames.  Not what he once was, but still a very very good player in 2017 at age 34.

Adolphus Washington: Bills 2016 3rd rounder.  Started 10 of 15 games in 2017 in a DL rotation, played about half the snaps.  Was mysteriously cut after 1 game in 2018, bounced around a couple teams, and out of football the next year.

Marcell Dareus: was in the mix and very effective against the run for 5 of the first 6 games, until we traded him to Jax

Jerry Hughes: another Bills legend.  Very good player still at that point, a bit of a hot-head though "Meet Gary!"

Rotational players included a crew of guys I have no memory of. 

 

LB assessment:

Preston Brown, MLB, was the Bills 2014 3rd round pick.  He started outside on the 2014 #4 defense under Schwartz, but Rex Ryan moved him inside in his 3-4.  I thought he was a decent player, but lacked the sideline to sideline range and coverage skills McDermott coveted.  But as I recall, they mostly made it work.  We moved on after the season.

Zo Alexander, OLB: played ~half the defensive snaps,  32% to 94%.  One Man Gang, what else is there to say?  Smart, well prepared, hard working, and went hard; still had it at 34.

Ramon Humber: OLB: STer in 2016 but started the season at age 30 playing almost 100% of the snaps, then was injured

Matt Milano: started out behind Humber on the depth chart but took more and more snaps when he was injured then kept them when he returned ('cuz McDermott rookies)

In these days, the Bills played more 4-3 base. Brown was on the field full time, and Humber started out that way, but they ended the year mixing it up situationally.

 

CB assessment:

Tre White made more mistakes then, but his quality was clear and yes he was a rookie and yes McDermott played him.

EJ Gaines played 100% of the snaps when healthy but missed 5 games due to injury and parts of 3 others.  We didn't bring him back.  I think Shareece Wright, who was a 2011 3rd round pick from the Chargers, subbed in for him.
 

I'm not sure who was our Nickel back that year. But even then, IIRC, we hardly played any dime, using Milano as a hybrid role or Zo as our "heavy nickel"

 

Safety: the foundational year of Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde.  They had more athleticism and less wisdom; the mind-meld was only just getting started.

 

What's My Point?  Well, a lot of folks (including me) are worried about what life looks like for the Bills D without Tremaine Edmunds.  And I don't know.  But I do remember that a lot of people felt Preston Brown was not very good as a MLB, yet the Bills did manage to snag a playoff game and field, at least, a middling D.

 

I would say our current DL of Von Miller (hopefully) - Ed Oliver - DaQuan Jones - Greg Rousseau is better than what we fielded in 2017

CB, if healthy again, Tre White and Kaiir Elam has potential to be better than Tre White (rookie) and EJ Gaines/Shareece Wright

Safety, same guys! Older and wiser, so maybe that's a push

Nickle, Taron Johnson is very good

LB - Milano is now a Force.

 

So whoever is the MLB in 2023 should have a lot more quality pieces around him.  We may not be a #2 D or maybe not a top-10 D, but we can hopefully get 'er done.

 

 

 

I think our nickel back was cornerback Leonard Johnson.

[Chaos]

The four key players on the defense have injury issues of varying degrees.  If Miller, Hyde an Poyer are all healthy at the end of the regular season, and White is healthy and playing at his pre-injury level, the defense should be fine. Expect all four of those positions to be filled with stars.  Milano is a star.  The other six players are JAGs of varying degrees.  If the five star positions are still filled with the stars playing at expected levels at the end of the regular season, we should be a force in the playoffs.  If one of those positions flips from "star" to "hole", we will probably be struggling. 

[MasterStrategist]

Appreciate the write up!

 

 It does make you appreciate what we have now, that 2017 group had some pieces but mostly over-achieved.

 

MLB is the biggest mystery, will Beane/Coach:

1. Draft a early replacement? There are maybe 3 starters, expected to go late 1st to 2nd round.

2. Roll with a Dodson/Bernard combo?

3. Sign a remaining Vet FA: not a lot of options left, perhaps Cunningham after the draft

4. Adjust the defensive scheme- ie:similar to 2017, do we play a bit more 4-3 OR unlike past defenses, do we switch to dime defense on passing downs (my preference). 

 

With such a complete roster, my best guess is Beane goes with Option 1....not ideal, but will be interesting to see how it develops. 

[loyal2dagame]

Against the pass it'll hurt. 

 

Agaisnt the run,  it'll be nice to have a MLB that runs into the play instead of sidestepping. 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Appreciate the write up!

 

 It does make you appreciate what we have now, that 2017 group had some pieces but mostly over-achieved.

 

MLB is the biggest mystery, will Beane/Coach:

1. Draft a early replacement? There are maybe 3 starters, expected to go late 1st to 2nd round.

2. Roll with a Dodson/Bernard combo?

3. Sign a remaining Vet FA: not a lot of options left, perhaps Cunningham after the draft

4. Adjust the defensive scheme- ie:similar to 2017, do we play a bit more 4-3 OR unlike past defenses, do we switch to dime defense on passing downs (my preference). 

 

With such a complete roster, my best guess is Beane goes with Option 1....not ideal, but will be interesting to see how it develops. 

 

Yeah, I honestly don't know what McDermott and Beane will do.

 

I suppose I'm afraid of #1, which seems like a reprise of the Bad Old Days where we'd fail to re-sign the talent we drafted and developed and then use a high draft pick, possibly on a lesser player.

 

I do think you missed a couple options.  One is that some vets will be cut, request release, or be available for trade on reasonable deals, after the draft.   Beane has alluded to this in his presser.  I think Beane may have his eyes on a crafty AJ Klein-type vet or two who may be cut.

 

I also think your option 2. is plausible. If he were really worthy of a 3rd round pick, Terell Bernard might given the chance to earn the job.  I think Dodson didn't play well enough when given the chance last season, but it's not inconceivable the Bills have some idea on adjustments they could make to help him succeed.

 

One issue about dime is, who do you take off the field?  Normally, the MLB has the "green dot", calls the plays, and stays on the field on passing downs.  But in the Bills case, I assume it's Milano you'd like to leave on the field in coverage.

 

Interesting times. 

 

Anyway, thanks for the kind words!

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, I honestly don't know what McDermott and Beane will do.

 

I suppose I'm afraid of #1, which seems like a reprise of the Bad Old Days where we'd fail to re-sign the talent we drafted and developed and then use a high draft pick, possibly on a lesser player.

 

I do think you missed a couple options.  One is that some vets will be cut, request release, or be available for trade on reasonable deals, after the draft.   Beane has alluded to this in his presser.  I think Beane may have his eyes on a crafty AJ Klein-type vet or two who may be cut.

 

I also think your option 2. is plausible. If he were really worthy of a 3rd round pick, Terell Bernard might given the chance to earn the job.  I think Dodson didn't play well enough when given the chance last season, but it's not inconceivable the Bills have some idea on adjustments they could make to help him succeed.

 

One issue about dime is, who do you take off the field?  Normally, the MLB has the "green dot", calls the plays, and stays on the field on passing downs.  But in the Bills case, I assume it's Milano you'd like to leave on the field in coverage.

 

Interesting times. 

 

Anyway, thanks for the kind words!

Great analysis!

 

Agree on all of this.  Re: dime defense...yes, I would keep Milano on the field and roll with an extra safety/CB (perhaps Benford or draft pick).  It's a deep and talented class at corner, could be worth consideration.

 

But my $ isn't on them switching to Dime, outside of team specific matchups (ie: occasionally against KC).  I do like Bernard on passing downs, basically a big safety/big dime defense.  He's versatile to blitz/instinctive, but lacks the size and strentght to be a 3 down player (IMO)

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree on all of this.  Re: dime defense...yes, I would keep Milano on the field and roll with an extra safety/CB (perhaps Benford or draft pick).  It's a deep and talented class at corner, could be worth consideration.

 

My point was just there's some logistics to resolve there.

 

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

But my $ isn't on them switching to Dime, outside of team specific matchups (ie: occasionally against KC).  I do like Bernard on passing downs, basically a big safety/big dime defense.  He's versatile to blitz/instinctive, but lacks the size and strentght to be a 3 down player (IMO)

 

That was said of Milano his rookie year.  It will be interesting to see if Bernard comes to camp bigger and stronger.

[LABILLBACKER]

The only halfway decent FA's left are Jack & Cunningham.  Neither are considered amazing so it's likely we're done looking. It will come down to either Campbell or Sanders to replace 49.  I sure as hell hope these scouts have done their homework. 

[Kiva]

We’ve improved just by having him off the team. It’s a blessing. 

[The Wiz]

Edmunds threads again huh?

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, Kiva said:

We’ve improved just by having him off the team. It’s a blessing. 

 

Where's DC Tom when you need him?

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Where's DC Tom when you need him?

 

Stack overflow from too many faults and not been rebooted.

[Freddie's Dead]

Totally forgot about Lolita and the Meat Tenderizer.  Thanks for the trip down memory lane.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Kiva said:

We’ve improved just by having him off the team. It’s a blessing. 

People are about to find out that this is not true
 

Tremaine Edmunds made it very difficult to work the middle of the field, and regardless of who we draft we’re going to see teams start to do it

 

Did he make huge hits know was his coverage bad at times yes we are going to see that. It’s like that for every linebacker.

 

But it’s going to be several million dollars cheaper to watch it

[LABILLBACKER]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

People are about to find out that this is not true
 

Tremaine Edmunds made it very difficult to work the middle of the field, and regardless of who we draft we’re going to see teams start to do it

 

Did he make huge hits know was his coverage bad at times yes we are going to see that. It’s like that for every linebacker.

 

But it’s going to be several million dollars cheaper to watch it

We'll survive.  In a couple years it wouldn't shock me to see the Bears have buyers remorse.  He's the most over hyped and over talked about player since Byrd.  Draft Campbell or Sanders and move on.

[GunnerBill]

There was nothing mysterious about the Adolphus Washington cut. He was pretty much the worst starter at any position in the NFL the second half of 2017. Garbage. 

4 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

I think our nickel back was cornerback Leonard Johnson.

 

He was. The only short armed corner in the entirity of the regime.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We'll survive.  In a couple years it wouldn't shock me to see the Bears have buyers remorse.  He's the most over hyped and over talked about player since Byrd.  Draft Campbell or Sanders and move on.

I’m in that boat was time to move on. You cannot pay this guy $18 million a year.
 

But people that were calling him a dud ate just wrong he’s a good player

 

McDermott we’ll figure it out. I’ll figure out how to scheme it up to cover up a rookie.

[Doc Brown]

Is Luke Kuchely's wife sick of him yet?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

MLB is a very easy position to fill if you’re willing to spend a 1st or high 2nd them. 
 

MLB, RB, and S are pretty easy fills with high picks.