Big Board - Top 40 Spots - V1.2

[Chaos]

Updated 4/1/2023 - V1.2 -  Darnell Wright OT to 23 ahead of Jack Campbell LB, based on TBD voting.  

Lukas Van Ness Iowa,Dalton Kincaid Utah,Michael Mayer Notre Dame removed from the BPA list to automatically be selected ahead of Wright.  Bijan Robinson moved ahead of Zay Flowers. Some small reshuffling among 38-40 based on TBD polls and commentary.  Spreadheet link reflects the current top 40

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing


Lots of polling, lots of feedback given to help set up an entire draft board.  This is course will be a fluid process.  

Here is a google sheet showing the information below:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing

Some explanation.  My estimate of the top 20 players are broken up into groups of top 10, 15, 20.  Order does not matter too much to me.  Among those top 20, there are 7 Players I would exclude from the Bills taking, 4 QBs and 3 defensive players. Branch, Porter and Breese. 

The other 13, I have identified as BPA and the Bills should pick them if they are available at 27.  Picks 21 and 22 are two TEs I expect to go before the Bills pick, Dalton Kincaid and Mike Mayer. I think the Bills should prioritize those at 27, if they are available. 

After Pick 22, I begin with TBD favorite Jack Campbell, and then follow that with the next favorites from Fan voting. (interpretating fan results is as much art as science. 

Please provide feedback of any reordering, deletions or additions you think should be made to the top 40.  

 

Further note, the consensus in column three is based on the mean rankings of 10 internet draft sites. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/
https://theathletic.com/4304645/2023/03/14/nfl-draft-2023-top-100-combine/
https://www.draftcountdown.com/
https://bleacherreport.com/nfl-draft
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/news
https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2023
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-big-board/
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2023-player-rankings-big-board/izwvqtdgymtvdw7qzx0q3hxp
https://walterfootball.com/draft2023.php

Thanks for your help. 

 

Here is the trade made during the Athletics most recent mock draft

 

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Chaos

[ColoradoBills]

As I have said, I'm not a college football fan much at all so all this has helped me realistically look at options for Beane.

Thanks for all your effort.

 

As of now, my hope is for a trade down and go with Campbell with the higher 2nd round pick.

Use the next 3 Day 2 picks for the offense.

[PrimeTime101]

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

[Chaos]

15 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

QBs don't matter much. More or less followed the consenus of the websites, which are wrong. Richardson may very well be #1 overall

I am not sure I understand your directionality are you saying Johnston should be picked before nine, or after nine and if so where. In one recent mock by the Athletic, he fell out of the first round altogether. 

[PrimeTime101]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

QBs don't matter much. More or less followed the consenus of the websites, which are wrong. Richardson may very well be #1 overall

I am not sure I understand your directionality are you saying Johnston should be picked before nine, or after nine and if so where. In one recent mock by the Athletic, he fell out of the first round altogether. 

lol Athletic mocks again have a horrible history of putting players in positions for clicks.. that being said.. again.. good job.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Van Ness Monster, Jack Cambell or Michael Meyers and if any of those 3 are sitting in the 2nd round you go get them.

[GunnerBill]

You wouldn't take Joey Porter Jnr in the extremely unlikely circumstances that he drops to #27? I think I'd sprint to the podium. Not in love with taking another 1st round corner but he'd be incredible value there. 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

You wouldn't take Joey Porter Jnr in the extremely unlikely circumstances that he drops to #27? I think I'd sprint to the podium. Not in love with taking another 1st round corner but he'd be incredible value there. 

 

Do you move off Tre White after next year in that scenario?

 

Bills have an out after this coming year and I think that could be on the table regardless of what they do this year.  

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Do you move off Tre White after next year in that scenario?

 

Bills have an out after this coming year and I think that could be on the table regardless of what they do this year.  

Depends on how Tre, Elam and Porter play. Let the season play out and see what happens. Still a year away from that decision, no reason to make it now 

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Depends on how Tre, Elam and Porter play. Let the season play out and see what happens. Still a year away from that decision, no reason to make it now 

 

And on how you feel you are set at safety. Poyer is a $2m hit to cut. Hyde is a FA. Maybe they get Benford some snaps there in 2023 and evaluate him? Maybe they draft someone? Maybe they keep Poyer both years? Maybe they extend Hyde? But a White & Benford safety duo in in 2024 would only be a million or two more expensive than Hyde and Poyer in 2023 and you'd have two starting corners on rookie deals. 

 

Again, not advocating for this plan, drafting another DB in round 1 is not my ideal outcome but in a draft this poor if you get a chance to take Joey Porter or Anton Harrison or Jalin Hyatt at #27 as much as we all want offensive pieces you would be ignoring a guy in another tier of talent altogether to force an offensive pick. When people talk about draft reaches this is what they talk about. Not a team picking the 32nd player on their big board when the 25th guy is still on the board.... but a team ignoring a player in a higher tier prospects to force a pick at a particular position. 

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Do you move off Tre White after next year in that scenario?

 

Bills have an out after this coming year and I think that could be on the table regardless of what they do this year.  

 

This is also an option though. Depends how Tre plays this year. 

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

You wouldn't take Joey Porter Jnr in the extremely unlikely circumstances that he drops to #27? I think I'd sprint to the podium. Not in love with taking another 1st round corner but he'd be incredible value there. 

That is the type of feedback I am looking for.  I will change his status to BPA

 

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

That is the type of feedback I am looking for.  I will change his status to BPA

 

I think another reason that corner might be in play is White’s salary to performance ratio.  He might return to form next year after his knee injury, but it’s possible that he doesn’t.  In the latter case, tough to have that much salary tied up in a guy who may no longer be a top performer.  Having a backup plan for that has some allure.

[Chaos]

Board Updated to Reflect Joey Porter being considered a BPA the Bills should take ahead of the expected LB/OT/WR options prioritized for pick 27. 

[Chaos]

Updated 4/1/2023 - V1.2 -  Darnell Wright OT to 23 ahead of Jack Campbell LB, based on TBD voting.  

Lukas Van Ness Iowa,Dalton Kincaid Utah,Michael Mayer Notre Dame removed from the BPA list to automatically be selected ahead of Wright.  Bijan Robinson moved ahead of Zay Flowers. Some small reshuffling among 38-40 based on TBD polls and commentary.  Spreadheet link reflects the current top 40

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing

[starrymessenger]

On 3/26/2023 at 4:10 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

Richardson should be the # 1 pick overall imo. I'm positive he's Josh Allen 2. Flame away.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Richardson should be the # 1 pick overall imo. I'm positive he's Josh Allen 2. Flame away.

For purposes of the Bills' board it doesn't matter if Richardson goes 1st or 26th.  I also think he will go first though. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

16 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Richardson should be the # 1 pick overall imo. I'm positive he's Josh Allen 2. Flame away.

What made Josh great was his head and heart! He put the work in to improve. Don't know Richardson well but he has work to do just like Josh.

[starrymessenger]

38 minutes ago, Chaos said:

For purposes of the Bills' board it doesn't matter if Richardson goes 1st or 26th.  I also think he will go first though. 

Myself I doubt that he's going #1 and taking a more pro ready guy like Stroud makes sense I guess for a rebuilding team and the tight windows to compete. 
But I'll tell you I look at Richardson and I see Josh Allen at Wyo or early Bills. Like Allen the big weakness, in addition to being raw (one year starter) is alleged to be his inaccuracy. Thing is, as Orlofsky has illustrated, there were drops of perfectly thrown balls. More importantly, he's not inaccurate. Like Josh was he is inconsistent. When his mechanics are good he's extremely accurate. He has shown the ability to process and make good decisions. Again he is not consistent but like Josh you see that he can do it. To me that's all you need to know at this point in his development. 
I think there are throws that probably only him and Allen can make in or out of the League. He's absolutely an incredible prospect. I would start him right away. He needs a Brian Daboll.

25 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

What made Josh great was his head and heart! He put the work in to improve. Don't know Richardson well but he has work to do just like Josh.

To all accounts he's a serious dude who is hard working and smart. Has all the intangibles. Given the position he's the #1 player in this draft and I don't think anything like him has been seen since Allen showed up.

Edited April 1, 2023 by starrymessenger

[mrags]

Thank you for this Chaos. Have to get to watching some of the vids/sites when I get some time. 

[GunnerBill]

On 3/27/2023 at 12:10 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

 

I am gonna say this now on Johnston.... I have had enough conversations with enough people to really believe he is going to go later than a LOT of people think. I am increasingly of the view JSN will be the first receiver off the board.