Bills Draftees Don't Contribute Much

[Buffarukus]

12 hours ago, Virgil said:

Considering the rotation we run on our defensive line and the amount of picks we dump into it, not surprising 

 

at what point do we decide this heavy rotation is not working. you got guys as fresh as can be still not dominating the line thats in all game. it doesnt really mitigating injuries. pick your best four and rotate them when needed but i think consistency may yield better rewards then energy levels at this point. 🤔

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, Yantha said:

Shakir DESERVED way more playing time in his rookie season.

 

 

and so did Cook.  We banished him because he fumbled his first pro-snap.  This team needs to trust its rookies more

[ColoradoBills]

It's true that McDermott does tend to trust a veteran more than a rookie and there is merit to McDermott's starting rookies slowly due in a

large part to the long NFL season compared to college.  I think Beane has gone along with it always trying to fill all holes with some sort of

a veteran before the draft.

 

Now that the core team is together, and the cap is much tighter and definitely will be tight again next spring, I do feel that McDermott will,

out of necessity, have to ease up on his mantra concerning rookies.  I don't expect a huge change, but I do see a need for compromise.

[BearNorth]

11 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Looking over the list one thing is for certain..being in the top 10 or bottom 10 doesn't dictate success or failure. There's a mixed bag in both groups.

 

I saw a similar situation with regard to O-Line, some of the highest ranking O-Lines play for non-contenders, and some of the lesser groups play for contenders [e.g. Bills].  The fact that the Bills have had sub-par O-line play and have still won 72% of their games over the past 4 years, is a real tribute to Allen, (Diggs for three of those), and the defense.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Snappysnackcakes said:

I witnessed it live. There’s a reason why a WR coach who was beloved by the players was sent packing, too. Was it all on Shakir? No. We were picking the proverbial WR trash heap by the end of the season. Do you really think they wanted to do this? Shakir was sitting there and they didn’t trust I’m enough to not sign CB and JB. I’ve no inside knowledge but I sure as hell can read football tea leaves. 

 

I dunno if Shakir was struggling with the playbook per se, but he was sure as hell struggling to apply it on the field at times.  And, I do think Beane traded for Hines in part to free Shakir from the PR/KR role so that he could focus his attention on mastering his WR role - Beane alluded to "a big step up in competition for (Shakir)" and allowing him to focus on WR, when making the move

 

But I believe that people over-interpret signing Cole Beasley and John Brown.  The fact is, by mid-November we simply overall had insufficient bodies to play WR.  We started the season with 6 WR on the roster - Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, and Kumerow (primarily a ST). 

 

By mid-October, Crowder was out for the season with a broken leg, and we'd elevated Hodgins.

Then Beane got caught in a squeeze at CB with the need to activate a player who couldn't or wouldn't play yet (Tre White) while another was injured, and decided to sacrifice a WR to waivers in order to keep an extra CB.  Hodgins got sniped by the Giants.

 

That meant that by November, we were giving meaningful in-game snaps to Jake Kumerow just to field 5 bodies at WR, and once Kumerow went on IR 11-20, we were giving meaningful in-game snaps to Tanner Gentry.  We literally only had 4 WR on the whole roster, for a team which keeps 5 active every game.

 

Signing Brown and Beasley was a desperation play to bring in bodies at WR, bodies who knew the playbook and were trusted to come with the right attitude - it did not reflect lack of trust in McKenzie or lack of trust in Shakir (although, obviously if they trusted him more comprehensively, he would have gotten more snaps instead of fielding Kumerow or Gentry,

I offer as evidence Shakir's snap counts, which actually did not decline, but increased, after John Brown was signed to the PS 11/26 and Beasley 12/13.  39% of the snaps in Chicago on Christmas Eve, 41% in the Miami Playoff.  Oh, and 44% on Thanksgiving in Detroit.

 

In hindsight, Beane mis-managed the whole matter of opening Tre White's window and of chosing to waive Hodgins vs. someone else, when Kumerow was apparently struggling with a back issue all season in addition to a high ankle sprain.  But, I assume Beane went with the input of trainers and doctors and White himself, so it's hard to fault him too much.

 

 

[Airseven]

Yeah but I’m told Beane’s draftees cling to the bottom of NFL rosters and wind up with the most games played ever. So that’s awesome.

[PrimeTime101]

1. Mc.D likes to sit some of the positions for a year, Like WR and DE.  These are players that can develop on the bench without hurting a "SB" ready team.

2. One thing Mc.D does not take kindly to is drops and fumbles. Shakir had 2 drops early in the season and Cook had the dropsies too. He does not tolerate it and I respect Mc.D for that.

3. I seriously think this GM/HC combo has a different philosophy outside their first draft. They try hard to plug holes so they are more wide open to the talent as much as position needed so yea.. 

4. I don't think I would categorize our last 2-3 drafts as great... yet.. 

 

Does McD need to have more trust and faith in his rookies? Absolutely.. But that being said, if he feels the same rookies will hurt this team more than help.. Then they sit the bench.

 

I would argue Davis should have seen the bench more while he was struggling and while Shakir was excelling he should of had more playing time. 

 

As far as the CB situation? that was tough.. No White do to injuries early on so he had to 1. decipher which CB was the better of the 2 and then decide if they wanted a vet. 

 

In short? I trust the process but the process needs to speed the heck up a bit. 

[cle23]

10 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

Good lord what is going on in Vegas?  

 

Mike Mayock happened.

 

But Ruggs with his situation, and the Raiders didn't have a pick until round 3 last year.  Leatherwood, their 2021 1st is already gone.  Arnette is gone.  Clellin Ferrell is gone.  Jonathan Abrams.  All well before their contracts expired.  All 1st rounders.

Edited March 26, 2023 by cle23

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

and so did Cook.  We banished him because he fumbled his first pro-snap.  This team needs to trust its rookies more

 

This is bunkum.  It's true that Cook only got 2 snaps in that game and sat down once he fumbled, but we were also beating the Rams 31-10 so there was no "need" to trust Cook more.

 

However, the next game Cook got 18 snaps and 11 carries.  Some Banishment.

 

There were hints that Cook wasn't practicing and preparing the way the Bills expected (McDermott said after one of the mid-season games "he's starting to see that the way you play reflects how you practice"), which taken at face value, would imply there were issues that had nothing to do with a fumble.

 

Then Cook steadily got more snaps until after week 12, he was getting 31-56% of the snaps consistently at the end of the season.

 

That's all consistent with a rookie who at first, maybe didn't give game prep and practice the attention it needed, but who settled in and was trusted more and more by the team as he EARNED IT in practice - not with a team that abstractly needs to "trust its rookies more", that doesn't trust its rookies even though they're ready and have earned trust, or that "banished" Cook for 1 fumble.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Buffarukus said:

 

at what point do we decide this heavy rotation is not working. you got guys as fresh as can be still not dominating the line thats in all game. it doesnt really mitigating injuries. pick your best four and rotate them when needed but i think consistency may yield better rewards then energy levels at this point. 🤔

 

This is actually a great question and probably deserves its own topic as discussion.

 

 McDermott has always built his defensive system on a heavy rotation of keeping guys fresh.

But, that inevitably means we're paying more players on DL - and paying more players, it follows that we can't follow a "Stars and Jags" model where we pay the Stars well and the Jags only fill in if injuries strike.

 

It seems to me that the other top teams pay and play their top guys more, and consequently have Monsters up the middle - Philly, KC, SF.  But, I really haven't looked "under the hood" to scrutinize the details of snap counts etc.

 

I do know at the end of the season, say from week 9 on, Ed Oliver was getting ~70% of the snaps at 3TDT and DaQuan Jones ~70% from week 13 on until he DNP vs the Bengals.  I think that would be because Phillips missed Week 13, 14 and the Mia playoff, and was playing hampered Week 15 and 16 and the Division round, and because Tim Settle wasn't "getting it done" to their satisfaction after an early season calf injury. 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[papazoid]

6 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

Now do rounds 2-7

 

i avoided those....they didnt help my arguement.....lol

 

2017 - dawkins & milano

2018 - taron johnson & wyatt teller (yea i know)

2019 - singletary & knox

2020- davis, bass, hodgins (yea i know)

 

and i'm sure you can name alot of misses

 

seriously tho, there is not a direct coorelation between rookies playing and team success.....of the final 4 conference championship teams, only 1 (cincy) made that top 10 list

[BillsShredder83]

11 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

Good lord what is going on in Vegas?  

im guessing the high turnover of picks. that year they get all those picks for Khalil, they all busted. have had another front office shakeup since then too

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Of course he did and so did Elam. Just a incredibly stupid philosophy by McDermott. If you want to mistrust your 5th round pick fine, coddle & sit them. But early round picks should be developed or evaluated immediately. 

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

Tweet seems pretty straightforward to mean the part that is bolded from your statement. The tweet itself says "total snaps".   I am not sure why anyone would read it to mean "during their rookie year", since there is no mention of rookie or first year and the number do not seem to make sense for only rookie years. 

No.  That's not the reason.  It was more to do with whether the total snaps played the last five seasons included players originally drafted by the team more than five years ago (White, Milano, Dawkins).  The tweet said "total snaps played in last 5 years by players a team drafted themselves."  It doesn't specify whether for example Mahomes would count for the Chiefs as he's a player they drafted themselves six years ago.

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

As a fan I’d rather see Shakir struggle than McKenzie, same can be said about Elam and Dane Jackson. If all players are struggling isn’t it best to go with the younger, superior talent? Late in the season they have the better chance of improving to help us down the stretch. 
 

It’s funny how so many people keep saying we can fill these holes with our draft picks, but if it take 3 or 4 years for them to contribute you ain’t filling anything. Look at our dline, how many picks has McD wasted there only to keep bringing in vets every year because it ain’t strong enough. 

[Mat68]

They fell into some FAs that turned out to be leaders of the franchise.  Hyde and Poyer feel like home grown guys but were bargin FAs who became stars.  Overall, Beane’s drafts are becoming questionable but his ability to find lower FAs has offset the depth.  

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

 

Stop Making Sense

[Simon Says]

18 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Players who the Bills draft don't seem to contribute much according to Warren Sharp...

 

Does he take into consideration how MANY draft picks a team had? That could skew the calculations.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

19 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

 

We have not done the best job in the draft, however the parameters of the 5 year period don't really fit well for this team during that time period. McBeane were in the process of completely rebuilding the roster 5 years ago. 2018 team above; there are only 2 starters on Offense and 5 starters on defense from that team currently on the roster and we drafted exactly 5 of those. 

That doesn't make sense and is actually opposite. A roster rebuild would actually favor Beane and McDermott playing more of their own draft picks. 

4 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball.  Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice.  The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.

Isn't that the job of the coaching staff to teach them? 

The Chiefs' rookies had no problem getting playing time. 

 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

That doesn't make sense and is actually opposite. A roster rebuild would actually favor Beane and McDermott playing more of their own draft picks. 

Isn't that the job of the coaching staff to teach them? 

The Chiefs' rookies had no problem getting playing time. 

 

Coaches are the teachers but not all students are great students.  Not all Chiefs rookies were big contributors.  I don't equate all playing time with good contributions.