Bills Draftees Don't Contribute Much

[Snappysnackcakes]

9 hours ago, Yantha said:

Shakir DESERVED way more playing time in his rookie season.

 

 

He was having trouble with the playbook. Slot must recognize blitzes and act as an outlet, Shakir ended a couple drives early in the season by doing his job. 

[Yantha]

6 minutes ago, Snappysnackcakes said:

He was having trouble with the playbook. Slot must recognize blitzes and act as an outlet, Shakir ended a couple drives early in the season by doing his job. 

 

I'm sorry but I have no idea how you can know that without being an insider in the organization.  I'm not discounting the point at all, I just want to know how you can know information like that.  To me it wasn't evident on the field at all.

[Snappysnackcakes]

7 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

I'm sorry but I have no idea how you can know that without being an insider in the organization.  I'm not discounting the point at all, I just want to know how you can know information like that.  To me it wasn't evident on the field at all.

I witnessed it live. There’s a reason why a WR coach who was beloved by the players was sent packing, too. Was it all on Shakir? No. We were picking the proverbial WR trash heap by the end of the season. Do you really think they wanted to do this? Shakir was sitting there and they didn’t trust I’m enough to not sign CB and JB. I’ve no inside knowledge but I sure as hell can read football tea leaves. 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Snappysnackcakes
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[Yantha]

2 minutes ago, Snappysnackcakes said:

I witnessed it live. There’s a reason why a WR coach who was beloved by the players was sent packing, too. Was it all on Shakir? No. We were picking the proverbial WR trash heap by the end of the season. Do you really think they wanted to do this? Shakir was sitting there and they didn’t trust I’m enough to not sign CB and JB. I’ve no inside knowledge but I sure as hell can read football yea leaves. 

 

I guess it was less obvious watching from home.  I WISH I was live!  Thanks for the insight.  

[nedboy7]

6 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure it matters either way.  Exactly one SB winner in top 10 (TB) and in bottom 10 (LAR) in the 5 year period.  

 

You nailed it.  But the reality of your assessment doesn't match the narrative on here that Bean doesn't know what he is doing. 

[Dopey]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

In their rookie years he means?

Good question 

[Dopey]

6 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure it matters either way.  Exactly one SB winner in top 10 (TB) and in bottom 10 (LAR) in the 5 year period.  

We didn’t win the SB, so it’s “let’s take all off season to complain, about anything “. 
You’re making too much sense here. Stop it. 

[Bigvinny]

How does a 3rd round LB never see the field ? And your first round corner hardly sees the field. Meanwhile every Chiefs draft pick made plays in the Super Bowl and or the AFC Champ game. Pacheco was 6th round. 

[brianthomas]

the cold truth is if we didn't hit on Josh Allen, we would suck & suck bad.

this data on BILLS draft picks & their ineffectiveness just supports this claim.

[Malazan]

8 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

the cold truth is if we didn't hit on Josh Allen, we would suck & suck bad.

this data on BILLS draft picks & their ineffectiveness just supports this claim.

 

Yea, look at all the superbowl winners in the top of the 10 compared to the bottom 10. You're on to something here. KC being at number 1 tells us all we need to know. 

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Players who the Bills draft don't seem to contribute much according to Warren Sharp...

 

 

I went on twitter, and I went to sharp's site https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/content/

I want to look at methodology - does "drafted themselves" count UDFA, for example?

 

I don't read this as applying at all to how much the players played, as rookies.  I think what it means is that when McDermott arrived, he basically purged the building of players drafted and developed by previous regimes, and brought in FA he trusted as well as rookies. 

 

And a lot of those FA have held on to jobs for a long time - eg

DB Hyde, Poyer vs. Hamlin, Jaquan Johnson;

DL Star Lotulelei, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison over Harrison Phillips, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham and Greg Rousseau

 

It does mean that a number of players the Bills have drafted have NOT worked out for the Bills or have been traded elsewhere (I'm not including guys who reached FA and we didn't re-sign like Harrison Phillips and Tremaine Edmunds.)

 

2017 Zay Jones (2), Nathan Peterman (5), Tanner Vallejo (6)

2018 Wyatt Teller (5), Ray-Ray McCloud (6), Austin Proel (7)

2019 Cody Ford (2) , Vosean Joseph (5), Darryl Johnson (7), Tommy Sweeney (7)

2020 Zach Moss (3), Jake Fromm (5), Isaiah Hodgins (6)

2021 Marquez Stevenson (6), Rachad Wildgoose (6)

2022 Matt Araiza (6), Luke Tenuta (6)

 

What's striking to me looking back at 6 years of McDermott drafts and 5 years of Beane, is how many of the top draft choices have worked out, and worked out well, as well as how many of the players we moved on from are starting for other teams (Teller, McCloud, Hodgins).   Most of those players we moved on from are late-round players where the overall hit rate for every team is poor, and many of them stayed around for several years, but didn't beat out the guys ahead of them (McCloud, Sweeney, Hodgins)

 

But equally striking to me is how many of the times we did use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on offense, it hasn't worked out - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, and Zach Moss all big whiffs.  It's almost as though we have much better ability to identify and sign defensive talent.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, UConn James said:

McDermott’s distrust of rookies has been chronicled before. 

 

7 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

When you have a good team. Your rookies ain’t gonna see much time. 

 

This isn't just about rookies - he's talking about how many of the guys who saw snaps over a 5 year period were drafted by the team in question, pretty sure.

 

But a similar principle to the "when you have a good team....." applies

 

When you have a team that has a top offense and top defense and is winning a lot of games, the new player is going to struggle to beat out the entrenched player, wherever that player came from.  And, with 53 slots on the roster and 7 draft picks per year (max), over 5 years at least 1/3 of the roster (18 out of 53) has to come from elsewhere EVEN IF EVERY DRAFT PICK IN EVERY ROUND IS A HIT, which is of course statistically unlikely.  And entrenched starters are least likely to be beat out by late round draftees.

11 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

In their rookie years he means?

 

No, that can't be correct given the numbers, though I cant find the original article on his website or linked on twitter to see his methodology

 

[BillsFanSD]

Yep, and I've been beating this drum for a little while now.  I don't mind easing rookies into their role, and maybe that makes sense for a team like the Bills, who need to avoid the "rookie wall" so guys are fresh for the playoffs.  But McDermott seems genuinely allergic to putting rookies on the field, to the degree that I wonder if he and Beane are really on the same page.  If I were Beane, I think I'd be a little ticked at Cook and Shakir just standing around on the sidelines all year.  

 

For people who are playing the "it's hard for rookies to crack the lineup when our team is this good" card, let's recall that we had problems at slot all year -- it's not like Shakir had to beat out Cooper Kupp or anything.  And it's not like Cook had Thurman Thomas in front of him.  For that matter, remember when we would take Singletary off the field in his rookie year so Frank Gore could fall forward for two yards?  It's been like this since McDermott arrived.  He's philosophically committed to not playing rookies as a matter of principle.

Edited March 26, 2023 by BillsFanSD

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Yantha said:

Shakir DESERVED way more playing time in his rookie season.

 

 

 

Oh, really?  How so?

 

20 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

the cold truth is if we didn't hit on Josh Allen, we would suck & suck bad.

this data on BILLS draft picks & their ineffectiveness just supports this claim.

 

I don't think that's what this data is about.   But, Alert the Media; ANY team that doesn't hit on its QB is gonna suck and suck bad unless they have an offense that's predicated on the run game and crafted so that almost any QB can run it effectively (SF)

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[cgg716]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Josh Allen, Tre White, Tremaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis, Gregory Rousseau, and Christian Benford all disagree with you.

Dude started Peterman 

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Confusing tweet as I'm assuming it's the number of snaps the players we drafted in the last five years played for us. 

 

A lot of this goes back to the 2017 offseason where we got five regulars that have started nearly every snap for at least five of the last six years (White, Dawkins, Milano, Poyer, Hyde).  There's other reasons (Diggs trade, d-line rotation, etc.) but that's pry the main reason.  Not many teams have that many core starters over the last six years.  This list means very little by the way except to laugh at the Raiders.

DingDingDingDing this guy gets it. 

 

Starting back in 2017, we picked up some FA that have nailed down their starting jobs -

2017 Poyer, Hyde (already had Hughes), Taiwan Jones (5 seasons, not continuous)

2018 Lotulelei, Phillips (3 seasons, not continuous)

2019 Morse, Feliciano (3 seasons), Addison (2 seasons), Brown (2 seasons), Beasley (3 seasons)

2020 Diggs, Matakevich (ST), Roberts (ST, 2 seasons)

 

And one important factor I can't discern, is how is he counting UDFA?   For example, Levi Wallace went undrafted, but played 2805 snaps for us from his rookie year thru 2021.  So is he counting as a player we drafted, or no?

 

It's really a factor of where did the guys come from who locked down their roles.  It doesn't show that we drafted badly (since in most cases, even the guys we drafted late and moved on from are still playing in the league - see post above).  It doesn't show that McDermott won't play rookies, since it seems to be talking about every snap over the last 5 years.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Beck Water

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

 

I'm sorry but I have no idea how you can know that without being an insider in the organization.  I'm not discounting the point at all, I just want to know how you can know information like that.  To me it wasn't evident on the field at all.

You contradict yourself with the statement and your precious statement. You say he deserved more playing time but then state this. Using your own logic, how would you know he deserved more playing time if you yourself isn’t an insider in the organization?  

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Josh Allen, Tre White, Tremaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis, Gregory Rousseau, and Christian Benford all disagree with you.

 

And don't forget a guy like Levi Wallace who walked on as an UDFA, started his rookie season, and kept the job for 4 seasons.

7 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure it matters either way.  Exactly one SB winner in top 10 (TB) and in bottom 10 (LAR) in the 5 year period.  

 

THANK YOU! 

 

If we look at the two teams who played in the SB, we have 2 teams in the top 10 (TB, CIN)

Two teams in the bottom 10 (LAR, twice)

6 teams presumably somewhere in the middle (KC x 3, Eagles, Pats, 49ers)

 

I think the moral of the story is that there's more than 1 way to skin a muskrat build a winning roster

 

This is what we used to refer to as a "garbage can stat" - a statistic which looks important, but doesn't apparently have predictive value.

[hondo in seattle]

Beane has done well in free agency.  But you can't fill up a roster with free agents - it's too expensive.  You need guys on rookie contracts.   And some of the cheaper guys need to be more than just backups.  They need to contribute.  

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, Bigvinny said:

How does a 3rd round LB never see the field ? And your first round corner hardly sees the field. Meanwhile every Chiefs draft pick made plays in the Super Bowl and or the AFC Champ game. Pacheco was 6th round. 

We had 2 studs at lb already and we usually only play 2 lbs at a time. Our 1st round cb was beat out by another rookie. Pacheco was a 7th round pick and replaced a 1st round pick who wasn’t that good. We play rookies, we’re just a deeper team that can let rookies develop, if they’re not better than the starters.