Offensive outlook post Free Agency

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think a Diggs replacement is in this draft, nor do I think a potential LT is likely there when we are picking.

But of course, maybe there is. I'm not an expert, I'm only reading the evaluations of others.

Yeah I guess my point was I'm sure when Minnesota drafted Diggs they didn't think he was a Randy Moss replacement either. We just don't know.  Here's the other thing. The GMs don't know either. Just like Brad Pitt said in moneyball you just don't know. You say you do but you don't. 

They need OL and WR out of this draft. As someone else said if you drafted OL and WR in every draft in the top 4 rounds with Josh Allen you probably are making a wise decision.  

NFL has changed and we used to think pass rushers and corners still mattered. Now there is no defense to stop the top QBs. Dont even try. Hope you get 3 stops a game by penalty,  turnover, missed FG, or the occasional good play. Otherwise just build a team to score 40 every game.  They have the QB. Get him as many pieces as possible. 

[Dr. Who]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Yeah I guess my point was I'm sure when Minnesota drafted Diggs they didn't think he was a Randy Moss replacement either. We just don't know.  Here's the other thing. The GMs don't know either. Just like Brad Pitt said in moneyball you just don't know. You say you do but you don't. 

They need OL and WR out of this draft. As someone else said if you drafted OL and WR in every draft in the top 4 rounds with Josh Allen you probably are making a wise decision.  

NFL has changed and we used to think pass rushers and corners still mattered. Now there is no defense to stop the top QBs. Dont even try. Hope you get 3 stops a game by penalty,  turnover, missed FG, or the occasional good play. Otherwise just build a team to score 40 every game.  They have the QB. Get him as many pieces as possible. 

I do think you have to try and stop them, but I agree the game is heavily tilted towards the offense and I have been advocating for a significant investment in the offense this off season, even if that means taking a hit on D. We miss out on the advantages of having an offensive minded HC, let's see McD coach up a team that doesn't require most of the top picks going to feed his side of the ball. If they don't use an early round pick on the Oline, I don't think they are acting with sufficient prudence to protect Josh Allen. I also think a day one or two pick at TE should be considered because if you add a quality TE along with Knox, you can properly deploy 12 personnel which introduces much more uncertainty for the opposing D.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, HaldimandBills said:

The first week of Free Agency is over and we are beginning to see where Beane felt the Bills came up short offensively. 

 

The Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield signings are an indication to me that the Bills felt they weren't dynamic enough at receiver. We now have two guys with wheels who can also create their own space against zone defenses.

 

The only mystery to me is why Shakir was not given a bigger role last season after it became evident Mckenzie was a liability against zone defenses? My guess is they needed Mckenzie as that twitchy slot receiver and Shakir was looked at as the # 3 outside receiver. I think it is expected Shakir takes a big step and plays a larger role in the offense moving forward.

 

Those looking for a receiver early on in the draft will be disappointed. I believe Beane still thinks Gabe Davis is a #2 receiver and that he let him and Diggs down by having such a weak group behind them. In a cap world you have to be strategic with your upgrades and improving your # 3/4/5 receivers will ultimately improve Gabe Davis's numbers as well. I am not saying I necessarily agree with this thinking but...

 

The fastest way for this offense to improve is to improve the oline and the Bills have already taken that step by handing McGovern a big contract. Watching the Bills near the end of last year you could see alot of their offensive play calling was tanked from poor oline play. That might be more of an indictment on our coaches but will never know what Allen's limitations and abilities were with that partially torn UCL. 

 

Those wanting olinemen in Round 1 or 2 are going to be happy because this is the direction I think Beane is going to go. I think Brown needs to be replaced and I'd be looking Right Tackle in Round 1 but I could also see the Bills wanting to upgrade on Bates and instead taking a guard. O'Cyrus Torrence would be my target in Round 1 and Steve Avila could be a Round 2 trade up target if Beane goes elsewhere in round 1.

 

I am hoping Dawson Knox has a rebound season and he shouldn't be held accountable for having a down year after the tragic events of last summer. 

 

The running game seems fairly standard. By improving the oline you expect improved play from Cook and Hines. Harris finally gives us a back who can actually gain tough yards in short yardage situations. It would be nice for our RB's to run the ball for 1st downs instead of Allen risking his health on 3rd and 3. Heck maybe will actually see some screens to our backs this season with improved olinemen.

 

 

Hopefully they use Shakir properly on mid level downfield routes.  If OL is the first 2 picks I'll be happy but somewhere in there Sean will be looking to draft Campbell.  We desperately need a future replacement for Spencer. He can't possibly be the future RT of this team going forward. Is Bates going to be the starting RG?  Will Gabe have the obligatory uptick contract year?

[Solomon Grundy]

6 hours ago, Success said:

I actually think we have plenty for Allen to work with now - IF we can give him time in the pocket.  McGovern is a good start, but shore up the line in the draft (as you mention) and we should be in great shape.

 

Harris will give us a real running game. Perfect complement to Cook.  And I think Allen will get the best out of our FA additions at WR - who both give us skills that were lacking for the most part (speed, good hands, YAC).

 

The key is the line.  Even a  line that could be top 15 or even top 10 would make it almost impossible to stop this offense.

 

Just hope that Josh makes some of the easier plays this season instead of trying to hit home runs all the time 

[gordong]

as it stands right now there is no way they are not drafting a defensive player in the first.. they need a MLB BAD. 

[skibum]

They are improving their role players beyond just special teams guys, and may have even upgraded a starting interior line spot (time will tell). 

 

For a team that is generally in good shape at the marquee positions, it's been pretty decent so far. But I think they still need to add at least two proven starters, at G or T and LB. For some reason, maybe its Morse's fragile health, I am hoping they take an interior lineman at 27, but only if a really (really) good one is available.

 

I would much rather see Edmunds replaced by a FA vet than by a draftee for now, and I don't think WR is as bad off as everyone else seems to think (Davis in particular, I still Billieve), but that's just me.

Edited March 21, 2023 by skibum

[Dopey]

Kiper’s mock draft 3.0 has us taking Bjan Robinson 

[Paup 1995MVP]

2 hours ago, HaldimandBills said:

I'd love Kincaid or any other top TE but I dont think the Bills are in a luxury position to take one in the 1st or 2nd. I know alot of mocks say this and will mock someone like Bijan Robinson to us but its not true. I also think we have backed ourselves into a corner where we need our first two picks to start. We can't afford a Epenesa, Basham, or Cook this season in the 2nd Round. TE historically have really struggled in their rookie year. 

 

Unfortunately Bean has wasted numerous high-end picks on RB and DE and that is why we are not afforded the luxury of taking a TE this draft. We never should have let the oline get this bad and it needs to be fixed immediately or this duration of the Bills window truly will be closed. Its easy to say more skill is needed because alot of the pundits are saying it but our Oline was horrendous. It was horrendous the year before as well. Allen just played at such a ridiculous level it didn't matter.

 

As we learned this year, when Allen partially tore his UCL the line was brutally exposed. Jets, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, Detroit. None of these defenses respected our oline down the stretch. Detroit had a practice squad D End embarrass Brown the entire game. 

Brown might get another year. Bates on the other hand might not. Bills might look at him as Morse replacement at center and be looking for the guard upgrade this year. 

We just resigned Quissenberry.  Not happy w that.  I pray we draft two studs on the O line in rounds 1 and 2.  And get a tough LB in round 3 that McDermott can coach up to start in the middle.  

[Gunsgoodtime]

5 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

We just resigned Quissenberry.  Not happy w that.  I pray we draft two studs on the O line in rounds 1 and 2.  And get a tough LB in round 3 that McDermott can coach up to start in the middle.  

He used a 3rd last year on a LB slated to go in the 5th.  I guess that was just a wasted 3rd round pick.  Unacceptable 

[doubledd67]

The offensive line still sucks signing 1 free agent from the cowgirls doesn't change the outcome 

[balln]

48 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Kiper’s mock draft 3.0 has us taking Bjan Robinson 

He’s crazy if he thinks they’ll fall that far. Eagles and chargers will pick him before buf

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, HaldimandBills said:

The first week of Free Agency is over and we are beginning to see where Beane felt the Bills came up short offensively. 

 

The Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield signings are an indication to me that the Bills felt they weren't dynamic enough at receiver. We now have two guys with wheels who can also create their own space against zone defenses.

 

The only mystery to me is why Shakir was not given a bigger role last season after it became evident Mckenzie was a liability against zone defenses? My guess is they needed Mckenzie as that twitchy slot receiver and Shakir was looked at as the # 3 outside receiver. I think it is expected Shakir takes a big step and plays a larger role in the offense moving forward.

 

Those looking for a receiver early on in the draft will be disappointed. I believe Beane still thinks Gabe Davis is a #2 receiver and that he let him and Diggs down by having such a weak group behind them. In a cap world you have to be strategic with your upgrades and improving your # 3/4/5 receivers will ultimately improve Gabe Davis's numbers as well. I am not saying I necessarily agree with this thinking but...

 

The fastest way for this offense to improve is to improve the oline and the Bills have already taken that step by handing McGovern a big contract. Watching the Bills near the end of last year you could see alot of their offensive play calling was tanked from poor oline play. That might be more of an indictment on our coaches but will never know what Allen's limitations and abilities were with that partially torn UCL. 

 

Those wanting olinemen in Round 1 or 2 are going to be happy because this is the direction I think Beane is going to go. I think Brown needs to be replaced and I'd be looking Right Tackle in Round 1 but I could also see the Bills wanting to upgrade on Bates and instead taking a guard. O'Cyrus Torrence would be my target in Round 1 and Steve Avila could be a Round 2 trade up target if Beane goes elsewhere in round 1.

 

I am hoping Dawson Knox has a rebound season and he shouldn't be held accountable for having a down year after the tragic events of last summer. 

 

The running game seems fairly standard. By improving the oline you expect improved play from Cook and Hines. Harris finally gives us a back who can actually gain tough yards in short yardage situations. It would be nice for our RB's to run the ball for 1st downs instead of Allen risking his health on 3rd and 3. Heck maybe will actually see some screens to our backs this season with improved olinemen.

 

 

 

 

You're saying that we won't draft a receiver early and the reason is that Beane thinks that Gabe Davis is a #2.

 

Well, assuming that you're absolutely right that Beane thinks Davis is a #2 (he is, his stats and efficiency show it clearly) that in no way proves that they wouldn't try to strengthen their WR group by drafting another guy early who would be good enough also to be a #2. 

 

The evidence you present simply doesn't back up your conclusions there. "Those looking for a receiver early on in the draft will be disappointed," you say, but the only evidence you present that backs that up logically is your own personal belief that Beane sees Davis as a #2 and the fact that we have cap concerns. That's spectacularly weak evidence that we won't draft a receiver early. 

 

"Those wanting olinemen in Round 1 or 2 are going to be happy because I believe this is the direction,"  ... dude, seriously? We will be happy because it's your opinion?

 

Because you have opinions, with no further evidence that supports your opinions with any real strength, you are convinced that you know what's going to happen?

 

Jeez.

 

 

8 hours ago, doubledd67 said:

The offensive line still sucks signing 1 free agent from the cowgirls doesn't change the outcome 

 

 

Maybe. Maybe not.

 

But signing McGovern and Spencer Brown recovering his health easily could.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

He used a 3rd last year on a LB slated to go in the 5th.  I guess that was just a wasted 3rd round pick.  Unacceptable 

 

 

So, you have a guess, and that makes the pick unacceptable? 

 

That's not really how it works.

 

Way way too early to know how that pick will turn out. I didn't like it. But as usual we'll have to wait and see.

[John from Riverside]

David Edwards would be a sneaky good signing

[MrEpsYtown]

9 hours ago, Dopey said:

Kiper’s mock draft 3.0 has us taking Bjan Robinson 

Jeremiah has Quentin Johnston falling to us somehow

[Simon Says]

22 hours ago, HaldimandBills said:

The first week of Free Agency is over and we are beginning to see where Beane felt the Bills came up short offensively. 

 

The Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield signings are an indication to me that the Bills felt they weren't dynamic enough at receiver. We now have two guys with wheels who can also create their own space against zone defenses.

 

The only mystery to me is why Shakir was not given a bigger role last season after it became evident Mckenzie was a liability against zone defenses? My guess is they needed Mckenzie as that twitchy slot receiver and Shakir was looked at as the # 3 outside receiver. I think it is expected Shakir takes a big step and plays a larger role in the offense moving forward.

 

Those looking for a receiver early on in the draft will be disappointed. I believe Beane still thinks Gabe Davis is a #2 receiver and that he let him and Diggs down by having such a weak group behind them. In a cap world you have to be strategic with your upgrades and improving your # 3/4/5 receivers will ultimately improve Gabe Davis's numbers as well. I am not saying I necessarily agree with this thinking but...

 

The fastest way for this offense to improve is to improve the oline and the Bills have already taken that step by handing McGovern a big contract. Watching the Bills near the end of last year you could see alot of their offensive play calling was tanked from poor oline play. That might be more of an indictment on our coaches but will never know what Allen's limitations and abilities were with that partially torn UCL. 

 

Those wanting olinemen in Round 1 or 2 are going to be happy because this is the direction I think Beane is going to go. I think Brown needs to be replaced and I'd be looking Right Tackle in Round 1 but I could also see the Bills wanting to upgrade on Bates and instead taking a guard. O'Cyrus Torrence would be my target in Round 1 and Steve Avila could be a Round 2 trade up target if Beane goes elsewhere in round 1.

 

I am hoping Dawson Knox has a rebound season and he shouldn't be held accountable for having a down year after the tragic events of last summer. 

 

The running game seems fairly standard. By improving the oline you expect improved play from Cook and Hines. Harris finally gives us a back who can actually gain tough yards in short yardage situations. It would be nice for our RB's to run the ball for 1st downs instead of Allen risking his health on 3rd and 3. Heck maybe will actually see some screens to our backs this season with improved olinemen.

 

 

McGovern didn't get THAT big a contract and how much of an improvement is he, really?

Bills Re-signed Quessenberry,the "late bloomer"....yawn.

I wonder what Boettger looks like this year,and do they expect Brown to take a big step?

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

McGovern didn't get THAT big a contract and how much of an improvement is he, really?

Bills Re-signed Quessenberry,the "late bloomer"....yawn.

I wonder what Boettger looks like this year,and do they expect Brown to take a big step?

For my past protection standpoint it’s a huge upgrade saffold was burnt toast
 

The McGovern kid grade it out as one of the better pass blockers

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Jeremiah has Quentin Johnston falling to us somehow

I've been using the pff mock simulator as heuristic for what might happen. Then yesterday I tried one by the pro football network and got entirely different scenarios with widely differing pools of players available at various points in the draft. I've no idea, but the pff mock is much less accommodating to my wishes, therefore given the nature of reality I have discovered in nearly six decades, I assume it is more genuinely predictive. I'd be really surprised if Johnston fell that far.

[MAJBobby]

Best way to look at it right now.

 

Harris upgrades Singletary

Harty upgrades McKenzie

Sherfield upgrades Kumerow

McGovern upgrades Saffold.

 

four upgrades so far and still over 10M in space to play with without cutting anymore or restructuring anymore

Edited March 22, 2023 by MAJBobby

[John from Riverside]

15 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

He used a 3rd last year on a LB slated to go in the 5th.  I guess that was just a wasted 3rd round pick.  Unacceptable 

As it stands right now, it is not an acceptable pick

 

But he was a rookie and rookies improve