Offensive outlook post Free Agency

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Nephilim17 said:

Yeah, I know. So I said this year or the next. We can't pay for Josh, Steph and Jerry Jeudy or some other WR $20 million a year going forward. Maybe squeeze it in on a front-loaded deal but we'll be in trouble later and like it or not, Beane claims we need to compete every year. Perhaps some this year are "all in" and the future be damned. I'm not one of them.

Understood. I mostly agree, I think. I do believe you might be able to get OBJ on a relatively affordable contract for a year or two. (I don't think the market is going to dictate a ridiculous contract.) I was in on the trade for Jeudy idea earlier, but your kind of considerations soured me on it.

[Paup 1995MVP]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I can't answer for that fella. I think Bates could potentially be a starting C. If you look upthread, I've spelled out how I see things. The reason you might consider drafting Kincaid is he is a dangerous offensive weapon and two above average TEs allows one to employ 12 personnel, an offense that Dorsey has favored in the past. It stresses the defense and puts a lot of uncertainty into the equation. Since I doubt a WR1 is going to be sitting there at 27 and Kincaid could conceivably drop, I think it's a real consideration for Beane.

Thanks for the response.  Changing the offense some to a more 2 TE look gets me excited about the potential, and maybe will open more up for Diggs Davis Shakir and the other WR's.  (Sherfield is intriguing.  I don't know much about him but he sure had some wheels in the TD against San Fran on the first play from scrimmage.)

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, wppete said:

Would like to see OBJ or a WR on the 1st round at the draft. We need to keep loading up with weapons for Josh. 

honestly, going forward, we should aim to take a wr in rounds 1-3 every year. were a pass first offense, josh will always make good use of these picks.  keeps us stocked to the gills, shields us for retirements/cap casualty down the road. makes decisions easier on who to sign or let go because of the cap.  josh is going to make WRs better, so we could potentially have some great trade bait down the road

 

tl:dr keep the wr pipeline flowing with high picks

[947]

It's extremely rare that a rookie TE makes a significant contribution in year 1, it's one of the hardest learning curves among all positions. I don't expect Beane to draft a TE in rounds 1-2.

 

It'll probably be OL in the 1st, but I'm not sure if O'Cyrus Torrence is a fit, he's more of a road-grading run blocker. I could see McBeane taking an OL with flexibility to play OG or OT.

 

If we don't sign Bobby Wagner, I think they'll probably trade down from #27 & take Jack Campbell somewhere in the 30s.

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

I think it will be Kuntz in round 5 or 6....  not round 1.

 

 

Pardon me? lol

[SCBills]

I can live with us being pretty much set at the skill positions IF they invest in the OL as you predict.  

 

I still believe it's a leap of faith in a bunch of WR's, outside Diggs, to play to consistent level we haven't yet seen from them.. but there is talent and intriguing skill sets in the room, I'll certainly concede that. 

 

Strengthening the OL also allows Knox to be the playmaker we paid him to be.  That alone could be the pass catcher that challenges Gabe Davis, albeit from the TE position.  

 

I love the RB room.  Gone are the Moss/Singletary square peg/round hole guys... Speed, Speed and Power... FINALLY

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by SCBills

[Yantha]

2 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Pardon me? lol

 

I hope we draft him just so I can buy the jersey.

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I’d love to see Broderick Joness/Anton Harrison or Darnell Wright rd 1 and Avila or Schmitz in rd 2.  
 

long term, I think that would help us more than any of the WRs that will be available in rd 1-2

i agree OL is the preferred pick here. if we end up taking a receiver itll have to be what they feel is a HR value. in general hows the OL in this class? real top heavy or will there still be some real nice propsects round 2&3?

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think teams ever “go all in” on one side of the ball.  It’s close to impossible.  Most resources, sure.  Never all.  It’s irresponsible.  

Carolina did their first year with Rhule, literally every pick i believe.  seemed like they got a ton of defensive talent that they havent quite used properly yet... but overall yes, i dont see us going more than 4 of our 6 picks on the offense

[BillsShredder83]

39 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Thanks for the response.  Changing the offense some to a more 2 TE look gets me excited about the potential, and maybe will open more up for Diggs Davis Shakir and the other WR's.  (Sherfield is intriguing.  I don't know much about him but he sure had some wheels in the TD against San Fran on the first play from scrimmage.)

with a better OL and more versatility at rb (got some power now) 12 personnel def intrigues me. hopefully add another top OL, so that knox can run routes more often.  get some power run game going early out of it, start to wear them out, then let cook and hines in there once the D has lost a step. kinda hope we can find a way to trade down and get a nice guard maybe

[BillsShredder83]

43 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

I hope we draft him just so I can buy the jersey.

theyll have to update the filter that stops ppl from putting wild isht on the nameplate lol

[HaldimandBills]

1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Unless we get Bobby Wagner or some other short-term vet, I think Beane has to go LB with the 1st, maybe wait till the 2nd. It's the QB of the D.

 

He then better get some competition at RG and RT, but that can wait until Rd 2-5. 

 

I'd also still like to see them add someone to push Gabe Davis on the outside. So if we can fill MLB before the draft, the focus could switch to WR

I dont think he can. This isn't a good lineman draft. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Unfortunately, this is not a good year for WR in the draft. I don't think potential WR1 falls to 27. I do think Dalton Kincaid has a chance to be a real offensive threat at TE and he might.

Diggs was not a first round pick. They can find a future #1 WR there or even in the second round. 

 

Dawkins dead cap hit for next year is $7M but falls dramatically after that. If he rebounds and plays well in 2023 I can see a 2-3 year extension. However he really has only been playing well for about a 6-8 game stretch of 2021 and regressed to really average at best in 2022. 

It is far more likely he is a post June 1 cut in 2024 and they draft his replacement this year. Whoever they draft will compete with Brown at RT and then will be slotted to replace Dawkins at LT in 2024. 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Ethan in Cleveland

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Harty > McKenzie

Sherfield > Kumerow

Harris > Singletary

 

Not earth shattering moves but all are upgrades.  I don’t think this takes them out of the running for WR at 27

 

 

 

 

Agreed

 

Given the reality of the cap, I'm content with those two position groups: WR and RB.  Adding to either in the draft would be a nice bonus.

What I'm really hoping for now is more help for the offensive line.  

[Dr. Who]

30 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Diggs was not a first round pick. They can find a future #1 WR there or even in the second round. 

 

Dawkins dead cap hit for next year is $7M but falls dramatically after that. If he rebounds and plays well in 2023 I can see a 2-3 year extension. However he really has only been playing well for about a 6-8 game stretch of 2021 and regressed to really average at best in 2022. 

It is far more likely he is a post June 1 cut in 2024 and they draft his replacement this year. Whoever they draft will compete with Brown at RT and then will be slotted to replace Dawkins at LT in 2024. 

I don't think a Diggs replacement is in this draft, nor do I think a potential LT is likely there when we are picking.

But of course, maybe there is. I'm not an expert, I'm only reading the evaluations of others.

[HaldimandBills]

2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Thats a real nice summation of where things stand right now on offense Haldimand.  What do you think of taking the TE Kincaid from Utah w our 1st round pick if he is still there.  The guy was a big time playmaker at Utah.  But is that really imperative given that we already probably underutilize Knox, who is pretty solid if not special?   A lot of teams have two good TEs'.  Why can't we?  And can Quinton Morris be that guy?

 

I agree about the O line needing reinforcements.  Spencer Brown is definitely a weak link on the line.  I am not sure he is even an NFL caliber player starter or reserve.  And interesting about Bates.  He didn't suck last year.  Does he have a high enough ceiling to be a starter on a team thinking Super Bowl?  Not sure.  It does sound tempting going O line in the first two rounds.  And having new starters at LG, RG, and RT.  With Bates being the #1 IOL reserve.  And then there is Ike Boetger.  The guy plays tough and has somewhat of a mean streak.  Can he be a solid starter at G if he can stay healthy?  I have always like his toughness.  And who replaces Morse when he hangs it up?  He has been a leader and a good solid player over his tenure w the Bills.  Will there be a drop off in his play at some point in the near future?  Or will he play well enough this year that he gets another extension that keeps him playing into his mid 30's?  He just is a tough dude.  Reminds of some of the guys who played O line for the old Raiders teams of the 70's.  With all the tape and casts on their hands and arms.  LOL.  That was old school football in the trenches of the highest degree... 

I'd love Kincaid or any other top TE but I dont think the Bills are in a luxury position to take one in the 1st or 2nd. I know alot of mocks say this and will mock someone like Bijan Robinson to us but its not true. I also think we have backed ourselves into a corner where we need our first two picks to start. We can't afford a Epenesa, Basham, or Cook this season in the 2nd Round. TE historically have really struggled in their rookie year. 

 

Unfortunately Bean has wasted numerous high-end picks on RB and DE and that is why we are not afforded the luxury of taking a TE this draft. We never should have let the oline get this bad and it needs to be fixed immediately or this duration of the Bills window truly will be closed. Its easy to say more skill is needed because alot of the pundits are saying it but our Oline was horrendous. It was horrendous the year before as well. Allen just played at such a ridiculous level it didn't matter.

 

As we learned this year, when Allen partially tore his UCL the line was brutally exposed. Jets, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, Detroit. None of these defenses respected our oline down the stretch. Detroit had a practice squad D End embarrass Brown the entire game. 

2 hours ago, khlax3 said:

 
I agree. I think the bills have already set their starting 5 oline for this year. I expect them to sign a vet FA with starting experience to push brown and be the swing tackle and then draft a c/g prospect in the 3-5 rounds. Everyone expecting a 1st round olineman is going to be very disappointed. Everytime Beane speaks he talks up Brown and it sure seems to me based on what the other 4 guys are getting paid they will all be starters this year 

Brown might get another year. Bates on the other hand might not. Bills might look at him as Morse replacement at center and be looking for the guard upgrade this year. 

[HaldimandBills]

2 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Unless we get Bobby Wagner or some other short-term vet, I think Beane has to go LB with the 1st, maybe wait till the 2nd. It's the QB of the D.

 

He then better get some competition at RG and RT, but that can wait until Rd 2-5. 

 

I'd also still like to see them add someone to push Gabe Davis on the outside. So if we can fill MLB before the draft, the focus could switch to WR

My honest personal opinion. It will be linebacker and Guard between the 1st two picks. In a perfect world we trade back from 27 into the early 2nd and grab one and then we use the draft capital we got from trading back to trade up from 59 and grab the other.

[ngbills]

I am most confident that McG is an upgrade over Saffold. 

 

I am not confident that Harris is an upgrade over Singletary. Singletary was the closest thing to an every-down back last season. The hope is Cook can be that. Then I would say a Cook/Harris combo is better than a Singletary/Cook combo. But if the fear is this turns more into a Singletary/Moss type situation which is not appealing.

 

I am also not confident that the WR combo additions of Harty and Sherfield are an upgrade over Crowder and McK. Kumerow is irrelevant. Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McK, Shakir has become Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Sherfield, Harty.

 

We still need a TE2.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

In McD's defensive scheme, a MLB that can run sideline to sideline and provide pass coverage in the middle of the field is a necessity.  Nobody on the current roster is that guy.  I expect this to be a very high priority for the Bills in the draft (round one or two).  As the Bills fill more holes in free agency, it is becoming more clear where they expect the draft to go.  We have all watched Beane work this process for a few years, so we shouldn't be surprised by any of this.

[Thrivefourfive]

I just have to say, the Bills are putting their money where their mouth is. Sure, there isn’t a splashy offensive lineman yet, but pieces are coming in, and that’s how you build a team. Depth. 

[Simon Says]

5 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

It just boils down to this: The Bills thought certain guys (Davis, McKenzie, Saffold, Moss, Spencer Brown, Ryan Bates) would step up and be adequate to good contributors on the offense, and none of them stepped up to a level that was acceptable for a team of this caliber.  They've made some low end upgrades, and they still have faith apparently in Davis, Brown, and Bates in that they didn't go replace them.

 

I think the offense is slightly better. Slightly better might be enough to make things way less clunky. It's hard to say. I want to see more offensive investment via the draft. G/C, WR, TE, T... any of those early would be a boon, but you've got to remember that McD absolutely refuses to play rookies. 

I noted that the free agent signings are relatively young vets that should have no problem fulfilling their contracts. Is this a bit of a departure for  Beane?