NFL Draft interesting stats

[BarleyNY]

21 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Some of these are a little old but I think it's probably roughly the same as now.

 

Outside of OL and LB and maybe TE....its only a little better than crap shoot after that.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Grand Conclusions

Safest first-round picks: Safety, linebacker, interior offensive line

At safety, you're three times more likely to draft a Pro Bowler than a bust in the first round. And only the interior offensive line positions have produced All-Pros more frequently.

 

Riskiest first-round picks: Running back, defensive line, wide receiver 

There are more busts than Pro Bowlers coming out of the first round at running back and defensive line, while it's about even for wide receivers.

 

Biggest tossups in the first round: Quarterback, cornerback

Quarterback is the only position above 40 percent when it comes to producing both Pro Bowlers and busts over the 25-year sample. It remains above 30 percent in both areas in the 10-year sample.

 

Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back

A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers.

 

Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line  

Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range.

 

Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker 

The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample.

 

Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.

 

Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.

 

Biggest toss-ups in the top five: Quarterback 

Wide receivers and defensive linemen also qualify, but it's to a lesser extent. 

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=2f381c6d7495

 

In sum, the expectation that first-round picks are more likely to start, succeed, and have staying power is confirmed.

However, with 40% of 2014's starters and 38% of All-Pros from 2012 through 2014 coming after the 2nd round (with 14% and 10% of these being undrafted players), this shows there's value deep into the draft.

 

 

Thanks for posting, but I’d love to see updated research like this. This is from 2015 and there have been some changes in the college game over the last decade that changed the landscape. OL is a big one. OLmen are much more of a projection since the read option offenses have taken over. Not a lot of true pass sets anymore.  

[Royale with Cheese]

A lot of graphs and data in this study.  It's athleticism vs production on the prospects.

Bills are one of the teams that apparently don't put an emphasis on combine results.

 

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2022/04/28/study-athleticism-vs-production-what-is-valued-in-the-nfl/

 

The Packers, Eagles, and Titans are the only teams to draft above-average athletes at this stage. These are teams that historically bank on players’ athletic traits. The Titans, Browns, and Rams are teams that look for production in college for their picks. The Panthers, Bills, Lions, 49ers, and Steelers evidently have little emphasis on combine results. The Giants, Bears, and Panthers evidently do not care for college production. 

The red dotted lines indicate the average/average prospect, which matches across all plots. Comparing teams over each of these charts holds some interesting results, as the Chiefs and Rams tend to draft more productive players later in the draft, and the 49ers go from a combine-heavy team to a team that doesn’t care for it as the draft progresses.

Another big takeaway is how athleticism tails off as we approach the later stages of the draft, where production remains a bit steadier. This implies teams emphasizing the combine early, and keeping the same emphasis on production throughout. 

Overall, the teams drift from the highly productive and highly athletic players, to the ones who don’t measure up as well. The overall takeaway and the study’s bottom line is that college production and combine results BOTH matter to NFL teams.

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[SoCal Deek]

So it's settled then...draft an SEC linebacker or offensive lineman!  And if you feel like gambling a bit go for Ohio State or Michigan. 

[colin]

part of what makes these numbers what they are is how teams spend draft picks.

 

CB is a position of need almost all the time for teams (since it requires skill and speed that can't be taught) and they have a history of performing at a starting level out the gate in the NFL, so that's a big value (save a salary)

 

DL is just a big need, especially pass rusher.  they are super hard to get as a free agent, so if you want one, you gotta draft him.

 

the above leads to these position to be more likely to be drafted in the 1st.  the 5th year option also has extra value for the reasons above.

 

for IOL, it was always a rule you don't spend a first on a guard, i think it leaves the chance to get truly better guards in the first round if other teams don't want to spend, likewise, people over drafting DL makes it less likely you get a good one later.

 

WR im not sure on, but i feel like it's a total crap shoot.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Some people have figured out the crap shoot aspect for a LONG time.

 

This is why, for example, you NEVER trade up for fewer picks....you trade DOWN for MORE picks...because more throws at the dartboard is better than fewer.

 

It's also why "depth charts" going into draft day are meaningless.  The guy who is widely perceived to be the 13th best pick is NOT the 13th best pick.  So there is not necessarily value associated with getting him at 27.  Maybe he's actually the 45th best player....

 

You can't trust rankings and grades.

 

 

[ganesh]

On 3/21/2023 at 8:19 PM, JayBaller10 said:

I feel like the 0% ratings need decimal places. 6th round QBs should not be at a flat zero. Off the top of my head you have Brady and Tyrod, so even if it’s 0.23%, it’s still not zero.

Also, I think the system does not take into account the median.   Teams in the 1st and 2nd round take a lot more risks with QB, DL, WR and CB and draft them in large numbers.  For the other positions, they are drafted only if they are sure fire winners.  I believe that is why those other positions have a higher success rate...it is just that their sample size in those rounds are much smaller.