NFL Draft interesting stats

[Royale with Cheese]

Some of these are a little old but I think it's probably roughly the same as now.

 

Outside of OL and LB and maybe TE....its only a little better than crap shoot after that.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Grand Conclusions

Safest first-round picks: Safety, linebacker, interior offensive line

At safety, you're three times more likely to draft a Pro Bowler than a bust in the first round. And only the interior offensive line positions have produced All-Pros more frequently.

 

Riskiest first-round picks: Running back, defensive line, wide receiver 

There are more busts than Pro Bowlers coming out of the first round at running back and defensive line, while it's about even for wide receivers.

 

Biggest tossups in the first round: Quarterback, cornerback

Quarterback is the only position above 40 percent when it comes to producing both Pro Bowlers and busts over the 25-year sample. It remains above 30 percent in both areas in the 10-year sample.

 

Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back

A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers.

 

Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line  

Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range.

 

Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker 

The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample.

 

Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.

 

Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.

 

Biggest toss-ups in the top five: Quarterback 

Wide receivers and defensive linemen also qualify, but it's to a lesser extent. 

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=2f381c6d7495

 

In sum, the expectation that first-round picks are more likely to start, succeed, and have staying power is confirmed.

However, with 40% of 2014's starters and 38% of All-Pros from 2012 through 2014 coming after the 2nd round (with 14% and 10% of these being undrafted players), this shows there's value deep into the draft.

 

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[Royale with Cheese]

https://bamahammer.com/2022/04/23/alabama-football-11/

 

One thing is clear from reviewing Futiak’s work; NFL Draft success is matched by the win-loss records of teams. The college football ‘haves’ produce far more NFL players than do the ‘have nots.’

Alabama Football and other teams, NFL Draft production

No. 1 – Alabama Crimson Tide – In  the 2017 through 2021 NFL Drafts, 51 of Nick Saban’s players were selected by NFL teams. Undrafted free agents who signed NFL deals are not included.

No. 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes with 43 players drafted

No. 3 – LSU Bengal Tigers with 39 players drafted.

No. 4 – Michigan Wolverines with 36 players drafted

No. 5 – Florida Gators with 33 players drafted

No. 6 – Georgia Bulldogs with 28 players drafted

Tied at No. 7 with 27 players drafted were Notre Dame, Miami and Clemson.

Rounding out the Top 10 were the Oklahoma Sooners with 25 players drafted.

Other SEC Football Teams

No. 13 – Auburn Tigers with 22 players drafted

No. 14 – Texas A&M Aggies with 21 players drafted

No. 20 (Tie) – Mississippi State Bulldogs with 17 players drafted

No. 26 (tie) – Ole Miss Rebels with 15 players drafted

No. 31 (tie) – Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats with 13 players drafted

No. 33 (tie) – South Carolina Gamecocks and Arkansas Razorbacks with 12 players drafted

No. 39 (tie) – Missouri Tigers with 11 players drafted

No. 57 (tie) – Vanderbilt Commodores with seven players drafted

A review of how many of the drafted players were on NFL rosters last season might prove interesting. As snapshop, we offer a comparsion of four of the top teams. Eighty percent of Georgia players drafted were on NFL rosters last season. The number for the Crimson Tide was 82%; Ohio State was 86% and LSU was 90%.

[Brand J]

I feel like the 0% ratings need decimal places. 6th round QBs should not be at a flat zero. Off the top of my head you have Brady and Tyrod, so even if it’s 0.23%, it’s still not zero.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Its why trading down instead of up is usually better. Having more picks just increases your odds. 

Losing out on the 5th year option is a negative but it would not be bad to trade out of 27 for an extra day 2 pick.

Conversely I'm in the camp that after the 5th round those guys are no better than an UDFA. Just trade away your 6th and 7th round picks for higher rounds next year. There is no roster room for those guys. They just end up being camp bodies and end up in other teams squads. You can find camp bodies on the UDFA market. If you parlay and package those picks you can then move around a little bit in the middle rounds without sacrificing a mid round pick.

[strive_for_five_guy]

Looks like DL performance doesn’t really drop off between R2 through R4.  In order words, unless you have a potential stud D-lineman, you shouldn’t really draft someone there until R3 or R4.

 

On the other hand, starting LBs drop off pretty quickly after R3.  Milano is somewhat a diamond in the rough.  The data would indicate if we’re looking for Edmunds replacement in this year’’s draft, we’d be smart to fire on that target early (R1 or R2).

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Looks like DL performance doesn’t really drop off between R2 through R4.  In order words, unless you have a potential stud D-lineman, you shouldn’t really draft someone there until R3 or R4.

 

On the other hand, starting LBs drop off pretty quickly after R3.  Milano is somewhat a diamond in the rough.  The data would indicate if we’re looking for Edmunds replacement in this year’’s draft, we’d be smart to fire on that target early (R1 or R2).

 

That's exactly how I viewed it as well.

[Dr. Who]

TE in the first two rounds has a significantly higher success percentage. There's a lot talent at the position in this draft and I think we need one so Dorsey can fully implement 12 personnel.

[Motorin']

39 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Looks like DL performance doesn’t really drop off between R2 through R4.  In order words, unless you have a potential stud D-lineman, you shouldn’t really draft someone there until R3 or R4.

 

On the other hand, starting LBs drop off pretty quickly after R3.  Milano is somewhat a diamond in the rough.  The data would indicate if we’re looking for Edmunds replacement in this year’’s draft, we’d be smart to fire on that target early (R1 or R2).

 

I think there's going to be plenty of 3 tech guys available in the 4th round this year too that have just as much of a chance as working out as any DT rated as a 2nd rounder this year. 

[Virgil]

TE being third most drafted in the first round was surprising to me.  O-Line being lumped together is a bit misleading, because I would thing Centers vs Tackles would be a vastly different number.  

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Some of these are a little old but I think it's probably roughly the same as now.

 

Outside of OL and LB and maybe TE....its only a little better than crap shoot after that.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Grand Conclusions

Safest first-round picks: Safety, linebacker, interior offensive line

At safety, you're three times more likely to draft a Pro Bowler than a bust in the first round. And only the interior offensive line positions have produced All-Pros more frequently.

 

Riskiest first-round picks: Running back, defensive line, wide receiver 

There are more busts than Pro Bowlers coming out of the first round at running back and defensive line, while it's about even for wide receivers.

 

Biggest tossups in the first round: Quarterback, cornerback

Quarterback is the only position above 40 percent when it comes to producing both Pro Bowlers and busts over the 25-year sample. It remains above 30 percent in both areas in the 10-year sample.

 

Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back

A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers.

 

Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line  

Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range.

 

Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker 

The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample.

 

Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.

 

Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.

 

Biggest toss-ups in the top five: Quarterback 

Wide receivers and defensive linemen also qualify, but it's to a lesser extent. 

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=2f381c6d7495

 

In sum, the expectation that first-round picks are more likely to start, succeed, and have staying power is confirmed.

However, with 40% of 2014's starters and 38% of All-Pros from 2012 through 2014 coming after the 2nd round (with 14% and 10% of these being undrafted players), this shows there's value deep into the draft.

 

 

Thank you and this is excellent.  It should be a reminder (or new information) to those that are outraged that the Bills didn’t get a starter with their late 2nd round picks…. It is hard to find NFL starters, even first rounders are not guarantees.  Once you get into the 3rd, you are doing well to find a good starter.  This should be eye-opening to those who think that draft misses are unique to the Bills.  

[Royale with Cheese]

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/

Initial view of the Data

A quick look at what happens to picks who receive second contracts show an interesting story in the graph below:

 

The three largest groups that share the greatest proportion of the same result lie in the picks from round one to round three whose second contracts come with different teams. This is 50% of round one picks, 43% of round two picks, and 32% of round three picks

The 4th greatest proportion (31%) is those round one picks whose second contract came from the same team

The order of these proportions speaks to teams’ willingness to take a chance on draft pedigree even for the second contract. Round one through round three picks will often get a second chance in the league somewhere else. Based on the 2010-2017 data, the most likely outcome for a player drafted in rounds one and two is a second contract with a different team. For round three, the most likely outcome is no second contract (51%), but a second contract is almost a coin toss at this point.

[Royale with Cheese]

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

 

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them

37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.

15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.

10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.

12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.

6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.

1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Looks like DL performance doesn’t really drop off between R2 through R4.  In order words, unless you have a potential stud D-lineman, you shouldn’t really draft someone there until R3 or R4.

 

On the other hand, starting LBs drop off pretty quickly after R3.  Milano is somewhat a diamond in the rough.  The data would indicate if we’re looking for Edmunds replacement in this year’’s draft, we’d be smart to fire on that target early (R1 or R2).

Except it drops from 58% in the first round to 26% in the 2nd round. If you need a defensive lineman, you basically have to get them in the first round.

[OldTimer1960]

55 minutes ago, Virgil said:

TE being third most drafted in the first round was surprising to me.  O-Line being lumped together is a bit misleading, because I would thing Centers vs Tackles would be a vastly different number.  

I think lumping all OL together might inflate the success rate some as some guys drafted as T fail there then move to G.

Note that the criteria for success was consistent starter, not “Pro Bowler”.

[Low Positive]

The draft is pretty much a crap shoot. Let's look at another team's pick. I think that most would agree that Baltimore is a good drafting team. Well in 2018, they took Hayden Hurst at pick #25. He was the first TE off the board that year. Well, two years later the Ravens liked Hurst so much that they traded him to the Falcons for a second-rounder. The Falcons declined his fifth-year option and he hit FA after his fourth season.  He signed with the Bengals, which was lauded as a slam-dunk signing. Well, the Bengals liked Hurst so much that they didn't even offer him a contract after this season. He's now on the Panthers. That's four teams in six seasons for a guy that was considered to be a sure thing.

[BigAl2526]

Something I did not see noted in any analysis: While there is not a great record of finding starting defensive linemen or running backs in round one, there is a huge drop off to the second round where the success rate drops by 30% from round 1.  Compare that to offensive linemen where the success rate drops 17% from first round to second round.  In other words, while luck is needed to find a starter in round 1, the odds are somewhat with you, and anything after that is a shot in the dark.  The exception to that is the fact that for some reason there is a jump in the success of finding defensive linemen in the fourth round.  The 37% success rate for finding starting defensive linemen in the fourth round of the draft is the highest rate of success after the first round's 58% success rate.  Curious.  

Edited March 21, 2023 by BigAl2526

[strive_for_five_guy]

41 minutes ago, MJS said:

Except it drops from 58% in the first round to 26% in the 2nd round. If you need a defensive lineman, you basically have to get them in the first round.

Right, and the R2 DL success level holds  through R4 draftees.  Hence, if you are going to draft DL after R1, might as well wait until later R3 or R4, versus waste a R2 pick on DL.  That R2 pick is better spent elsewhere.

[BBFL]

Great post. Thank you!

 

going by the statistical data of success it would appear we should be drafting OLine in the first 3 rounds along with a LB in the first 2. Interesting the top positions of need right now on the roster are the ones that apparently have the most success with high picks. Wonder if this regime’s upcoming draft will fall in line…?

[Hatszel]

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/

Initial view of the Data

A quick look at what happens to picks who receive second contracts show an interesting story in the graph below:

 

The three largest groups that share the greatest proportion of the same result lie in the picks from round one to round three whose second contracts come with different teams. This is 50% of round one picks, 43% of round two picks, and 32% of round three picks

The 4th greatest proportion (31%) is those round one picks whose second contract came from the same team

The order of these proportions speaks to teams’ willingness to take a chance on draft pedigree even for the second contract. Round one through round three picks will often get a second chance in the league somewhere else. Based on the 2010-2017 data, the most likely outcome for a player drafted in rounds one and two is a second contract with a different team. For round three, the most likely outcome is no second contract (51%), but a second contract is almost a coin toss at this point.

 

So if I am reading this correctly Rd 1 signinging different team is 50% and Rd 1 signing with same team is 30%  That means 20% don't get a second contract and are out of the league.   That is pretty amazing.    Awesome thed guys probably the best info on here I have ever seen draft related!

[OldTimer1960]

19 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/

Initial view of the Data

A quick look at what happens to picks who receive second contracts show an interesting story in the graph below:

 

The three largest groups that share the greatest proportion of the same result lie in the picks from round one to round three whose second contracts come with different teams. This is 50% of round one picks, 43% of round two picks, and 32% of round three picks

The 4th greatest proportion (31%) is those round one picks whose second contract came from the same team

The order of these proportions speaks to teams’ willingness to take a chance on draft pedigree even for the second contract. Round one through round three picks will often get a second chance in the league somewhere else. Based on the 2010-2017 data, the most likely outcome for a player drafted in rounds one and two is a second contract with a different team. For round three, the most likely outcome is no second contract (51%), but a second contract is almost a coin toss at this point.

I speculate that the high price of FA contracts drives the second contract with a different team theme.  Most tams would be happy to keep a solid starter or even good backup after their rookie contract, the limited supply of FA compared voracious appetites of teams with cap space drives prices up to the point that the drafting team has to make a financial decision.

 

Many of the guys who sign elsewhere are decent players, but not at the price the market will bear.  Couple that with the reality that several teams each year have limited cap room.