Bills sign Damien Harris

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, flmike said:

The team desperately needs help at LB and CB and safety depth, not to mention a true run-stuffing DL and you don't want to use picks there? 

 

 

I'm with him that there's no great need at CB, though I wouldn't be surprised at a mid- to late-round pick.

 

We have a serious need at DL, though. We need pass-rushing DE and DT to replace Jordan Phillips and get ready for the loss of Tim Settle next year (I expect), and if you're one of those that doesn't want Oliver back to replace him as well.

 

We don't need a justification to go defense early. It would make perfect sense.

[GolfandBills]

2 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

Based on that we already lost it 

Depends on if Singletarys contract counts.  Same with Sherfield and Harris.  Right now we have two that count as losses and two that count as gains so no comp pick as of now.  

Edited March 21, 2023 by GolfandBills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

LOL, you guys and your comp picks. Honestly thought most of the comp pick talk was just sarcasm because of how little it matters.

 

Getting your guys and shoring up the roster before the draft >>>>> Comp pick

 

If we dont sign Harris then we likely need to use that comp pick on yet another 3rd round RB anyways, so it's all a wash.

 

Worrying about comp picks is the new worrying about the salary cap. I'll just leave it to the pros.

What people would rather do is spend a little more cap or sign someone they grade lower that doesn’t affect comp picks.

 

So instead of Harry they’d sign Berrios.  Instead of Harris they’d sign Zeke/Fournette.

 

Sign released players instead to gain comp picks. But those players might not be the right fit or price. 

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

Last year I wanted Bradberry and Reddick so badly it hurt.

Bradberry was the obvious CB to fill in for White, and we knew the HC and GM, nope.

Reddick was a terrific pass rusher looking for a home, young and cheap, from Carolina, nope.

 

We got washed up Von Miller instead.

I hoped for the best. I knew what to expect.

Both of the the guys I wanted played in the Super Bowl for Philly instead.

They could be under contract today if we went younger and cheaper than Von Miller.

The Carolina and NYG connections both failed, when Buffalo needed both of them.

 

I wanted McAffery when he became available

Clearly ours, 670k and a Carolina connection. Nope. We got Hines.

At least Hines gave us some cheers on ST. Really amazing ones TBH.

Would have rather had McCaffery though.

 

TSW was convinced he was washed up and 'too expensive', despite how many of us showed he literally cost 670k for 2022

and how he could be extended or traded for picks this draft.

He ended up having a pretty good season with SF, despite 'Mr Irrelevant' playing QB, and signed a team friendly deal...

Could have been in Buffalo with Allen, but nope, despite the Carolina connection.

 

Beane 'knew better' in all those situations where he had contacts....

2022 presented Reddick/ McCaffrey and Bradberry to Buffalo with connections and they failed on all of them.

I get it. We fu&k up every opportunity. After that I started to question Beane a lot.

 

But this offseason is real dog crap.

The time for Mack/ Jones/ Von Miller was 2-3 years ago on Allen's rookie contract in 2019-2021.

 

At least Beane is not making the OBJ/ D Hop and Zeke deals today, a year or two too late to matter or try to save face.

All of these above guys are done.

 

I wanted Creed Humphrey instead of Basham.

Imagine this team with Humphrey/ Bradberry/ Reddick and McAffrey under contract....

That is my team. But it is what it is. Do better going forward. I've moved on.

 

I wanted one of the RT and Okerkerke (LB Indy) this offseason if Edmunds moved on.

I got neither again.

Poyer will be a stud S.

I do think a few of the offensive guys will exceed their minimal expectations this season.

McGovern/ Sherfield/ Harris will provide some pop and size, and play well.

Nope they aren't 'studs', but provide upside in a very weak offensive FA period.

 

So you have no names, no magic hat of players in this FA period.

Neither do I. That is because this FA period stinks, and there are few to none.

I'm happy Buffalo can't be dumb with money this offseason.

 

Other than Poyer all of the FA money this year has gone to offense.

OG/ WR/ WR/ RB

 

Who should Beane have signed???

Should he just make up FA to sign here like in Madden?!?

Last year was the chance to build a juggernaut and he failed.

 

I agree the Harty signing was idiotic. Another really dumb move.

The other WR should have gotten 2-3 years IMO.

I think he could surprise as a WR3/ WR4.

 

As for WR, let me repeat it again:

OBJ and D-Hop are not improvements over Davis in 2023. PERIOD.

 

This absurd dislike of Davis really is a TSW specialty, and I'll continue to fight it.

Yards and TDs win games. Look at the facts.

If your argument is 'those guys were injured' that may not be a strong argument in your favor.

 

Let's look at these 'studs' Beane 'refuses to get':

 

OBJ:

2021: 82 TARGETS/ 44 RECEPTIONS/ 53.7%/ 537 YARDS/ 12.2 YPC/ 5 TDS

2022; 0 TARGETS/ 0 RECEPTIONS / 0% / 0 YARDS / 0 TDS

 

OBJ has not had an above 55.6% catch rate since 2018, but people want to talk crap about Davis' sub 60% rate.

 

The last season OBJ was productive was 2018. 2018 was pre-pandemic my man.

Dude is washed. You will be lucky to get Emmanual Sanders 2021 season from him.

(PS Manny Sanders had a 58.3% reception rate in 2021)

 

D Hopkins:

Another 2018 PRO-BOWL TSW REGULAR:

2021: 64 TARGETS/ 42 RECEPTIONS/ 65.6%/ 572 YARDS/ 13.6 YPC/ 8 TDS

2022: 96 TARGETS/ 64 RECEPTIONS/ 66.7%/ 717 YARDS/ 11.2 YPC/ 3 TDS

D-Hop became 2020 Cole Beasley in 2022.

 

This is your solution to the #2???

At least J Brown and E Sanders could stretch a field for half a season each before collapsing.

D Hop can't get off the couch to change the channel if the batteries go bad.... it's laughable.

 

Fun Fact, D Hop was a below 60% catch WR his first 5 seasons.

He was considered a stretch WR to Andre Johnson's possession skills.

Sound familiar? It should. How many of you knew that?

 

D Hop was Gabe Davis before Gabe Davis.

Now many of you want old expensive Gabe Davis to replace young cheap Gabe Davis......

D-Hop is a vaxx refusal and season away from being 2021 Cole Beasley.

 

D-Hop is washed too.

 

Gabe Davis:

A 4th round pick in his second and third season, only one starting....

2021: 63 TARGETS/ 35 RECEPTIONS/ 55.6%/ 549 YARDS/ 15.7 YPC/ 6 TDS

2022: 93 TARGETS/ 48 RECEPTIONS/ 51.6%/ 846 YARDS/ 17.4 YPC/ 7 TDS

 

LAST TWO YEARS:

OBJ:       44 REC/   82 TARG / 53.7%/ 537 YARDS/ 12.2 AVG/  5 TDs  - wants $14 million

DHOP:  106 REC/ 160 TARG/ 66.2%/ 1289 YARDS/ 12.1 AVG/   11 TD  - 2nd round pick?

DAVIS:   83 REC/ 156 TARG/ 53.2%/ 1395 YARDS/ 16.8 AVG/  13 TD  - on a rookie contract...

 

Really? OBJ is a bum. D Hop is Cole Beasley at his best now.

 

Years 1-3:

DHOP: 239 REC/ 410 TAR/ 58.3%/ 3533 YARDS/ 14.8/ 19 TDS

DAVIS: 118 REC/ 218 TAR/  54.1%/ 1984 YARDS/ 16.8/ 20 TDS

 

Its just a matter of volume yrs 1-3. Very similar catch %, Davis has YPC and TDS over DHOP despite being targeted only 53% of the time.

D HOP has catches and yards on 2x the targets.

 

This does NOT include playoffs....

 

 

Im with you on some of that. Comparing Davis to OBJ or Hopkins just lol no don’t do that. Von isn’t washed up either. He made a difference. He just happened to get injured. 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Scott7975

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

This guy is a really complete back.  He is a powerful runner with some burst, excellent in pass protection and has been underestimated as a receiver.  Beane has greatly improved the RB room.  Beane is also putting the Bills in a position to be flexible in the draft.  At this point the only glaring hole is at MLB.  Drafting WR, OL, DL, or TE remain important but not "show stopping" critical.  Beane is doing what he has done in previous years to use free agency to set up for the draft.  I really like this latest move.

[BuffaloRebound]

1 minute ago, mikemac2001 said:

Based on that we already lost it 

Couldn’t Beane just call up his buddy Schoen and have him sign a Van Wroten, Hart, or Murphy to vet minimum deals? 

[GolfandBills]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Couldn’t Beane just call up his buddy Schoen and have him sign a Van Wroten, Hart, or Murphy to vet minimum deals? 

Those contracts wouldn’t count.  Contract value has to be in the top 35% to count which is between 2-3 million somewhere. 

[Thurman#1]

18 minutes ago, alluro said:

Can anyone confirm Buffalo lost a third round comp pick by signing Harris? If so, that is a HUGE mistep by Brandon Beane...unbelievable. 

 

 

No. Nobody can confirm what's completely unclear at this point.

 

It's way too early to know how many we'll lose or how many we will gain.

 

It may have slightly increased the odds we don't get the pick, but even that is way too early to say for sure.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, flmike said:

The team desperately needs help at LB and CB and safety depth, not to mention a true run-stuffing DL and you don't want to use picks there? 

They do not desperately need CB depth or even S depth. 

 

White

Elam

Jackson

 

Johnson

Neal

Lewis

 

Hyde

Poyer

Benford

[Dr. Who]

10 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

LOL, you guys and your comp picks. Honestly thought most of the comp pick talk was just sarcasm because of how little it matters.

 

Getting your guys and shoring up the roster before the draft >>>>> Comp pick

 

If we dont sign Harris then we likely need to use that comp pick on yet another 3rd round RB anyways, so it's all a wash.

 

Worrying about comp picks is the new worrying about the salary cap. I'll just leave it to the pros.

Other top teams seem to find a way to get the comp picks on a regular basis, so there is a method that allows one to accrue them. It's a genuine asset, so the GMs who are clever enough to stack them while building and maintaining a winning team are ahead of those GMs who lack that ability. I think Beane's prioritizing having someone to cover every weakness with at least adequate ability requires FA investment on low level but decent pros. It keeps you from ever really being a team that gets comp picks. That is one thing. The other is that Beane's mindset extends into the draft where he typically goes for safe solid picks, but then those picks fail as often as they hit. He should allow for some weaknesses and go after top end playmakers. The teams that succeed more often than not in the playoffs have more of those than the other good teams that make the post-season.

[GolfandBills]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No. Nobody can confirm what's completely unclear at this point.

 

It's way too early to know how many we'll lose or how many we will gain.

 

It may have slightly increased the odds we don't get the pick, but even that is way too early to say for sure.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Other top teams seem to find a way to get the comp picks on a regular basis, so there is a method that allows one to accrue them. It's a genuine asset, so the GMs who are clever enough to stack them while building and maintaining a winning team are ahead of those GMs who lack that ability. I think Beane's prioritizing having someone to cover every weakness with at least adequate ability requires FA investment on low level but decent pros. It keeps you from ever really being a team that gets comp picks. That is one thing. The other is that Beane's mindset extends into the draft where he typically goes for safe solid picks, but then those picks fail as often as they hit. He should allow for some weaknesses and go after top end playmakers. The teams that succeed more often than not in the playoffs have more of those than the other good teams that make the post-season.

 

Honest question: Which top teams? And is it because they have a "method" or because good teams usually lose good players and are usually too overextended to add more back?

[Royale with Cheese]

23 minutes ago, alluro said:

Can anyone confirm Buffalo lost a third round comp pick by signing Harris? If so, that is a HUGE mistep by Brandon Beane...unbelievable. 

 

A HUGE miss step?  Harris will contribute and start on this offense.  Generally 3rd round picks don't start.

 

 

[harmonkillebrew]

18 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

 

follow this for up to date info.  Once they get contract details they update 

Didn't lose a comp pick for Harris. That canceled out Singletary.

Edmunds was already canceled out by the McGovern signing.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

A HUGE miss step?  Harris will contribute and start on this offense.  Generally 3rd round picks don't start.

 

 

 

The wailing and crying here over the mere possibility of losing a 3rd rd comp pick, when we dont even have Harris's contract numbers yet, is getting to ridiculous levels. Bills fans really need to disconnect and go enjoy Spring for a bit.

[GolfandBills]

1 minute ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Didn't lose a comp pick for Harris. That canceled out Singletary.

Edmunds was already canceled out by the McGovern signing.

 

 

All depends on contract value not just total free agents lost/gained.  Contract has to actually qualify for the formula 

Edited March 21, 2023 by GolfandBills

[BuffaloRebound]

Wouldn’t be surprised if Beane waited to see Singletary contract so he could structure Harris’s deal to preserve the 3rd round pick 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if Beane waited to see Singletary contract so he could structure Harris’s deal to preserve the 3rd round pick 

 

I'd be amazed if Beane would risk blowing the deal and losing out on a guy he wanted (Harris) over the possibility of getting the 105th pick in the draft.

[GolfandBills]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if Beane waited to see Singletary contract so he could structure Harris’s deal to preserve the 3rd round pick 

They don’t have a 3rd to preserve.  Right now without contract values for Singletary, Sherfield, Harris they are at 2 qualifying free agents gained and two lost.  So zero comp picks as of now 

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

LOL, you guys and your comp picks. Honestly thought most of the comp pick talk was just sarcasm because of how little it matters.

 

Getting your guys and shoring up the roster before the draft >>>>> Comp pick

 

If we dont sign Harris then we likely need to use that comp pick on yet another 3rd round RB anyways, so it's all a wash.

 

Worrying about comp picks is the new worrying about the salary cap. I'll just leave it to the pros.

 

 

"Worrying about comp picks is the new worrying about the salary cap," you say? Fair enough. Both of them matter a lot. Teams that handle each of them better have an advantage over teams that don't.

 

If we get a pick for Tremaine, it'll be a third-rounder. That matters a lot.

 

As for having to replace Harris anyway, no, some FAs do not count against the comp pick formula. People who were cut, for instance, or RFAs, or people signed after a certain date.

 

Harris, a UFA, does matter, but how much is as yet very unclear. My guess is that he's going to be a signing for much less than the $7.1M AAV that has been mentioned, and that the number of FAs lost and gained is where he'll make an impact.