RT in First Round

[Beck Water]

46 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

So after the draft we do a delta value of guys that got picked at the spot in our draft/vs real draft. Guys with the highest delta value are considered the best drafters. 
 

All guys who go undrafted are calculated as if they would be the next pick. 
 

As an example I drafted Merriweather at 256 and he’s drafted at 156 I would gain + 100 in the delta and vice versa. 
 

 

I also go back a couple years. Just like any GM I’ve crushed a few, average a few and stunk in a few.

 

Maybe later I’ll post a couple of my past ones. I haven’t always been the Bills as there are a couple other Bills fans who have participated and it’s only fair 

 

This is great.  I wish someone would do this with all the media draft pundits, so that they have some kind of accountability/metric of their success in prediction

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

What do you think of Darnell Wright from Tenn at 27?   Or would you go WR or someone like Tippman?  

I don’t have a problem with Wright at 27, because I think he is going to very good, but I only want him if they plan to have him start over Brown. I don’t want to draft competition. 
 

With the WRs, I love Johnston and really like Smith-Nijima…I don’t love the rest of the first round guys at this point. 

 

I like Tippman a lot. If I’m replacing Morse next year, he’s a great fit, 27 seems high for him in my world. I think he’s a round 2/3 guy.
 

I will say that some of the conventional thinking stuff about RTs and MLBs in round 1, a belief of which I am typically a strong believer in, is kind of out the window with our pick. Our 27 is really a second round pick because there are so few 1st round prospects in the draft. 
 

My gut tells me they draft Campbell, Simpson, or a DL, edge likenNolan Smith or an interior guy like Bryan Breese. 

[Mat68]

Find a 10 to 15 year player at OT I would be all for.  Protect Allen.  Maybe Brown is better at LT.  Either way move him to swing/Jumbo Te.  Not flashy but I would like it. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

So after the draft we do a delta value of guys that got picked at the spot in our draft/vs real draft. Guys with the highest delta value are considered the best drafters. 
 

All guys who go undrafted are calculated as if they would be the next pick. 
 

As an example I drafted Merriweather at 256 and he’s drafted at 156 I would gain + 100 in the delta and vice versa. 
 

 

I also go back a couple years. Just like any GM I’ve crushed a few, average a few and stunk in a few.

 

Maybe later I’ll post a couple of my past ones. I haven’t always been the Bills as there are a couple other Bills fans who have participated and it’s only fair 

very cool. Thanks for the run down. 

[OldTimer1960]

20 hours ago, nosejob said:

Even if Beane were to stay pat at 27, he's gonna have to move around and up the board this year. If it was ever a time to use a pick or 2 from next year, that is now.

Trading down beyond 31 and expecting a certain player to be there to me is foolish this year. The top of the 2nd rd. is gonna bleed Defensive players dry.

 

Steelers, Bears and then the Lions and Texans both with 2 2nd rounders I believe.

Why would you trade a future pick for a pick in a draft as weak as this one?

[Nitro]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think people forget that.  The bottom line is that the R side of our OL was a fiasco, and the best that can be said of Brown is that he has yet to prove he can pass protect as a RT.

 

Why do you trust Beane and McD when they say positive things about him?  At this time of year, That's Their Job.  They said positive things about Cody Ford, too.

I can see your skepticism.  After following the Bills since 1965, I can see through the BS.  The back injury played into the poor performance of the right side.  Calling it a fiasco is hyperbole.  The team won 13 games with this line.  

20 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

What happens if back injury flares up again?? Quesenberry?? I'd rather have another option

Draft will garner a O lineman.  There are several players who can play both OT and OG.  With the two OG signed in FA, I suspect they will draft a back up to push the starters.  This keeps evolving.  

[first_and_ten]

On 3/19/2023 at 12:01 PM, QLBillsFan said:

Outside of LB the Bills greatest need is RT. I’ve been a big SB fan but last year he fell back. BB has mentioned his injury and lack of prep leading into the season. Also blocking in the NFL vs at NI is an adjustment. All that is true but just bringing in a vet to compete isn’t enough. Our QB is Josh Allen let’s continue to improve around him. Harrison from Oklahoma or Jones from Ohio State in the 1st. If SB wins the job great but most likely he become the back up. What do you all think ? 

 

Beane seems high on Brown, unless his praise is a smoke screen. They signed two guards. I think they draft Oline in this draft, just not in the first pick.

[Sweet Lou]

On 3/19/2023 at 4:31 PM, QLBillsFan said:

All due respect the NFL doesn’t work like that. 

It kinda does work like that.  Refrigerator Perry was clearly not a RB in Chicago!  But he handled the assignment quite well, when asked to do so.

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 3/26/2023 at 1:21 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

I don’t have a problem with Wright at 27, because I think he is going to very good, but I only want him if they plan to have him start over Brown. I don’t want to draft competition. 
 

With the WRs, I love Johnston and really like Smith-Nijima…I don’t love the rest of the first round guys at this point. 

 

I like Tippman a lot. If I’m replacing Morse next year, he’s a great fit, 27 seems high for him in my world. I think he’s a round 2/3 guy.
 

I will say that some of the conventional thinking stuff about RTs and MLBs in round 1, a belief of which I am typically a strong believer in, is kind of out the window with our pick. Our 27 is really a second round pick because there are so few 1st round prospects in the draft. 
 

My gut tells me they draft Campbell, Simpson, or a DL, edge likenNolan Smith or an interior guy like Bryan Breese. 

Is Wright good enough to plug and play immediately at RT?  If he is, then we have to take him.  That is our biggest weakness on the roster.  If he is gone, then I would take Dalton Kincaid, the TE from Utah.  Kid is a beast.  Knox is fine, but certainly not special.  Kincaid would open up a lot of space on the field for the rest of our weapons.  Super Bowl contenders do not have starting O lineman of Spencer Brown's caliber.  That is a no brainer. 

 

But since drafting Josh Allen.  Beane seems to have fallen asleep at the wheel with his drafting.  Just has not brought in enough really good NFL football players.

[MrEpsYtown]

59 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Is Wright good enough to plug and play immediately at RT?  If he is, then we have to take him.  That is our biggest weakness on the roster.  If he is gone, then I would take Dalton Kincaid, the TE from Utah.  Kid is a beast.  Knox is fine, but certainly not special.  Kincaid would open up a lot of space on the field for the rest of our weapons.  Super Bowl contenders do not have starting O lineman of Spencer Brown's caliber.  That is a no brainer. 

 

But since drafting Josh Allen.  Beane seems to have fallen asleep at the wheel with his drafting.  Just has not brought in enough really good NFL football players.

Yeah I think Wright is plug and play. How much better he will be than Brown in the long run is kind of my question. So is it really worth it? I really don’t like using a first round pick in a RT, but this year is just a little different in terms of it being so weak. So I have softened thatvstabce a bit for Wright. In any other year he’s a 2nd round guy. Kincaid is good too. 
 

Here’s the thing…this team isn’t drafting a #2 TE or RT competition in the first round. It’s just not happening. If they draft those guys they need to have the intention of starting them, and I think this regime likes Knox and Brown too much to go there. 
 

As much as fans hate it, if it isn’t a LB, I think it’s and edge rusher or a DT. If all the WRs and defensive talent is gone, I could see a RT or TE but I doubt it. 
 

Just so everyone goes nuts even more, the Chiefs will draft Wright at the end of the first, or jump in front of us to do so. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[BeastMaster]

 A RT in the first would be an awful pick

 

You trade down if that's who you have targeted at our pick

[Virgil]

11 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

 A RT in the first would be an awful pick

 

You trade down if that's who you have targeted at our pick

 

Why is it an awful pick?  Plenty of OT's go in the first round.  If there's someone that can start Day 1 at RT, or even push a Guard spot, I'm all for it.  

 

I've said this a few times; I want every single person on that line to fight for their job.  

[TheBeaneBandit]

26 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Yeah I think Wright is plug and play. How much better he will be than Brown in the long run is kind of my question. So is it really worth it? I really don’t like using a first round pick in a RT, but this year is just a little different in terms of it being so weak. So I have softened thatvstabce a bit for Wright. In any other year he’s a 2nd round guy. Kincaid is good too. 
 

Here’s the thing…this team isn’t drafting a #2 TE or RT competition in the first round. It’s just not happening. If they draft those guys they need to have the intention of starting them, and I think this regime likes Knox and Brown too much to go there. 
 

As much as fans hate it, if it isn’t a LB, I think it’s and edge rusher or a DT. If all the WRs and defensive talent is gone, I could see a RT or TE but I doubt it. 
 

Just so everyone goes nuts even more, the Chiefs will draft Wright at the end of the first, or jump in front of us to do so. 

The thing about TE though is there is probably a handful of guys who have significantly higher upside than Knox and make him expendable in a couple seasons. But the good news is we have killer 2 TE sets for 2 to maybe 4 seasons.

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

The thing about TE though is there is probably a handful of guys who have significantly higher upside than Knox and make him expendable in a couple seasons. But the good news is we have killer 2 TE sets for 2 to maybe 4 seasons.

I agree. I just don’t think Dorsey is going to go there with the offense, but I could be wrong. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[947]

TEs almost never contribute much as a rookie, most take 2-3 seasons. A first round TE pick is usually one of 2 things: a luxury pick for a contending team that doesn't have other glaring needs, or a lower level team that's is 1-2 years away from playoff contention & can endure TE growing pains.

 

We are in the middle of our championship window & have too many immediate needs for our first rounder to be only used in sub-packages.

[QLBillsFan]

On 3/20/2023 at 5:07 AM, machine gun kelly said:

Spencer Brown spent the entire off season last year with back and neck issues.  He had a solid rookie season.

 

Thus is an overreaction by far.  Brown is solid and with a healthy off season should move forward.  
 

our needs are far greater at WR, TE #2, G, and LB.

 

Thats where we need to spend our time.

I’ll buy everything but TE#2 over the needed improvement of the RT position. 

[QLBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Sweet Lou said:

It kinda does work like that.  Refrigerator Perry was clearly not a RB in Chicago!  But he handled the assignment quite well, when asked to do so.

Yes that is true. For that assignment he was outstanding. Move forward, take the hand off, run people over. But that is significantly different than moving to TE or DL. Goal line FB takes not a lot of time or technique/ adaptability. Complete position changes in the NFL are rare. And if done generally involve a undrafted FA. So it doesn’t really work like that. 

[In Summary]

On 3/19/2023 at 2:05 PM, 3rdand12 said:

Never been a fan of a player who plays guard and Tackle. They are/have physically different needs to be successful

Agree

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

The thing about TE though is there is probably a handful of guys who have significantly higher upside than Knox and make him expendable in a couple seasons. But the good news is we have killer 2 TE sets for 2 to maybe 4 seasons.

 

I am not sure I agree with that. Dawson Knox's upside is still relatively unscratched because the Bills don't use him enough. He is open plenty. The last 2 seasons he has been surehanded. They need to throw him the ball more. He is a freak of an athlete. 

 

It is a pretty good tight end class this though. The best one since that class in which we drafted Knox. So I do expect the Bills will take one somewhere.

[BigDingus]

If it's a quality linemen, I'm all for it.

 

Regardless of position, we need to improve & add depth (and not just jack of all trades guys to be a warm body). 

 

Morse was the best of the unit last year, but O-line has been a serious sore spot for me for years. Against better teams, it's always an obvious weakness