RT in First Round

[OZBILLS]

19 hours ago, Beast said:

The Bills are on the path to being mediocre now, huh?

 

This place is unreal.

Path? We we're there.

 

[1ManRaid]

20 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Outside of LB the Bills greatest need is RT. I’ve been a big SB fan but last year he fell back. BB has mentioned his injury and lack of prep leading into the season. Also blocking in the NFL vs at NI is an adjustment. All that is true but just bringing in a vet to compete isn’t enough. Our QB is Josh Allen let’s continue to improve around him. Harrison from Oklahoma or Jones from Ohio State in the 1st. If SB wins the job great but most likely he become the back up. What do you all think ? 

 

I guess I'm going against the tide with all the negative emote responses to this, but I wouldn't hate it?  I'm told the value at our pick is loaded on IOL and WR, but if "our guys" aren't there, the mocks with RT or TE sound good too.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I'm ok with a tackle in the first if they have some flex to move inside.  Bates and Brown shouldn't be guaranteed starters after last season.  

[GreggTX]

Agreed. Many people don't like it because OT's don't score points or get sacks. If we draft an OT and Brown doesn't develop, we're better off. If the rookie OT and Brown both turn out well, even better. Someone slides over to G and 2 spots get upgraded. KC, Cincinnati and Philly all made big investments in their OL's recently with big payoffs. KC even let Tyreek Hill walk and signed Orlando Brown. They did pretty well last year. If we want similar results from Allen, we need to make a similar investment.

[GreggTX]

On 3/20/2023 at 7:30 PM, Nitro said:

People forget he was recovering from a back injury last season. He was improving towards the end of the season. I trust Beane and McD when they say positive things about him. I expect them to draft a guy who can play OG and C. Doyle and Anderson will compete for the back up OT spot. With the tight cap, I think they will resign their own and bring in training camp fodder.  

 

__________

Brown still has a VERY long way to go and he's proven nothing. No one has forgotten about his back, but I'm not just assuming he'll be good until he shows it. Again, he still has a very long way to go. I hope he makes it. I also would much rather draft an OT than an IOL in the first anyway. Everyone seems to think his future success is a lock after 2 very poor seasons.

[John from Riverside]

On 3/20/2023 at 5:18 AM, OZBILLS said:

Path? We we're there.

 

13-3

[SCBills]

It’s also important to note that some of us truly do believe in Brown’s potential.  
 

However, that potential could come by developing as a swing tackle and challenging Dawkins for LT down the line. 
 

Perhaps Brown makes the jump and then our rookie has to play swing tackle this year before we sort out OL … fine by me. 
 

Can never have too many good OL … look at what solid OL are getting paid compared to solid LB’s.  There’s a reason for that.  

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

It’s also important to note that some of us truly do believe in Brown’s potential.  
 

However, that potential could come by developing as a swing tackle and challenging Dawkins for LT down the line. 
 

Perhaps Brown makes the jump and then our rookie has to play swing tackle this year before we sort out OL … fine by me. 
 

Can never have too many good OL … look at what solid OL are getting paid compared to solid LB’s.  There’s a reason for that.  

Like this outlook and file it under potential nice problems to have. Warming up to Darnell Wright at 27....

[nosejob]

Darnell Washington will kill 2 birds with one stone.....like having a second RT, great run blocker and a beast outlet valve that no DB can contest....

and at 59 or 91 a steal.

[Low Positive]

On 3/20/2023 at 8:09 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

 

So I distinctly remember that they drafted Lane Johnson to be Peters' replacement and I was trying to remember why, but I couldn't so I had to look it up.

 

Johnson was drafted in 2013. The fact that the Eagles were drafting in the top 5 was because they had a terrible season in 2012. They had a meh season in 2011 - Vince Young's dream team- after drafting a terrible guard in the first round Danny Watkins,  and Sean McDermott was the scapegoat firing. So why were they so bad in 2012? Juan Castillo defensive coordinator. Also, in the spring of 2012, Peters ruptured his Achilles tendon. A couple of months later, he re-ruptures his Achilles and King Dunlap is their starting LT all year and he is awful. Jason Kelce was also hurt. The Eagles go 4-12 and Andy Reid gets fired.

 

So fast forward to the 2013 draft, the Eagles aren't sure if a 30-year-old Peters is going to recover and aren't sure if he will still be good. Achilles injuries are tough for OL and especially for a guy who is 330+ and relies on his athletic ability. They draft Johnson with the intention of him replacing Peters, but Peters makes a miraculous recovery and actually continues to play well with Johnson at RT. As the years go by, Johnson expects to eventually move to LT, but Peters sticks around until he is like 38 years old and the Eagles don't want to move Johnson at that point.  

 

My overall point is that Johnson is the best RT in football, who should be playing LT, but circumstances put him on the right side. A great pick in an extremely weak first round, the Eagles also came away with Zach Ertz and Jordan Poyer in that draft. Johnson is the example of when picking a non-LT goes right, but the Eagles had every intention of having Johnson be their left tackle. I would say that the best "pure RT" 1st round pick who has worked out is Jack Conklin. He has been hurt a lot, but there is no denying that he is an excellent player. Another I would say is Tristan Wirfs, who was also drafted with the intention of eventually moving him to LT, which it looks like the Bucs will do this year. 

 

Good point on Landon Dickerson. With that in mind, it seems that most people feel like there are only 15 first-round players in this draft. The value of pick 27 is really the second round. Because of that, I won't riot if they pick a non-LT OL, however, I would prefer they use some of those mid-round picks on guards etc. 

 

Obviously, the draft is a crap shoot and I understand that most guys can be boom or bust. When you take a non elite non-LT in the first round there is no boom with the bust, and that is why I am typically against it. 

This is an excellent post that not only explores OTs and drafting but also puts some needed context on the ***** “Reid fired McDermott” canard that gets thrown around here a lot. But posts like this get zero engagement. Next time, just say “if the Bills draft a non-LT in the first, Beane should be fired immediately.”

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

On 3/19/2023 at 12:06 PM, gonzo1105 said:

I do a live 7 round mock draft yearly with like 20 guys. I’ll make a post about it after it’s done(we are just starting round 5). 
 

I went with a Tackle as well with the first pick. 

I am sort of curious what you all do after your mock draft. Do you go back at the end of season and see who did best? 

[mrags]

26 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Darnell Washington will kill 2 birds with one stone.....like having a second RT, great run blocker and a beast outlet valve that no DB can contest....

and at 59 or 91 a steal.

Agree with all of this but think he goes somewhere in the 40s. Every mock I’ve done he generally gets picked up by 45ish. 

[RyanC883]

On 3/20/2023 at 8:09 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

 

So I distinctly remember that they drafted Lane Johnson to be Peters' replacement and I was trying to remember why, but I couldn't so I had to look it up.

 

Johnson was drafted in 2013. The fact that the Eagles were drafting in the top 5 was because they had a terrible season in 2012. They had a meh season in 2011 - Vince Young's dream team- after drafting a terrible guard in the first round Danny Watkins,  and Sean McDermott was the scapegoat firing. So why were they so bad in 2012? Juan Castillo defensive coordinator. Also, in the spring of 2012, Peters ruptured his Achilles tendon. A couple of months later, he re-ruptures his Achilles and King Dunlap is their starting LT all year and he is awful. Jason Kelce was also hurt. The Eagles go 4-12 and Andy Reid gets fired.

 

So fast forward to the 2013 draft, the Eagles aren't sure if a 30-year-old Peters is going to recover and aren't sure if he will still be good. Achilles injuries are tough for OL and especially for a guy who is 330+ and relies on his athletic ability. They draft Johnson with the intention of him replacing Peters, but Peters makes a miraculous recovery and actually continues to play well with Johnson at RT. As the years go by, Johnson expects to eventually move to LT, but Peters sticks around until he is like 38 years old and the Eagles don't want to move Johnson at that point.  

 

My overall point is that Johnson is the best RT in football, who should be playing LT, but circumstances put him on the right side. A great pick in an extremely weak first round, the Eagles also came away with Zach Ertz and Jordan Poyer in that draft. Johnson is the example of when picking a non-LT goes right, but the Eagles had every intention of having Johnson be their left tackle. I would say that the best "pure RT" 1st round pick who has worked out is Jack Conklin. He has been hurt a lot, but there is no denying that he is an excellent player. Another I would say is Tristan Wirfs, who was also drafted with the intention of eventually moving him to LT, which it looks like the Bucs will do this year. 

 

Good point on Landon Dickerson. With that in mind, it seems that most people feel like there are only 15 first-round players in this draft. The value of pick 27 is really the second round. Because of that, I won't riot if they pick a non-LT OL, however, I would prefer they use some of those mid-round picks on guards etc. 

 

Obviously, the draft is a crap shoot and I understand that most guys can be boom or bust. When you take a non elite non-LT in the first round there is no boom with the bust, and that is why I am typically against it. 

 

What do you think of Darnell Wright from Tenn at 27?   Or would you go WR or someone like Tippman?  

[TheBeaneBandit]

52 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Darnell Washington will kill 2 birds with one stone.....like having a second RT, great run blocker and a beast outlet valve that no DB can contest....

and at 59 or 91 a steal.

Agreed but he probably goes between picks 30-40.

[DJB]

I’m totally ok with RT in round 1 .

 

To me it’s archaic thinking that RT is devalued and not worth a 1st round pick.  We’ve seen how it’s awful for Josh with a poor line . I’d give anything to have a Lane Johnson protecting his right side 

[Bigvinny]

Might have to go LB in round 1. Or go with Dodson, Bernard,  Spector to battle it out ?

[nosejob]

10 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Agreed but he probably goes between picks 30-40.

Even if Beane were to stay pat at 27, he's gonna have to move around and up the board this year. If it was ever a time to use a pick or 2 from next year, that is now.

Trading down beyond 31 and expecting a certain player to be there to me is foolish this year. The top of the 2nd rd. is gonna bleed Defensive players dry.

 

Steelers, Bears and then the Lions and Texans both with 2 2nd rounders I believe.

Edited March 26, 2023 by nosejob

[Beck Water]

On 3/20/2023 at 6:30 AM, Nitro said:

People forget he was recovering from a back injury last season.  He was improving towards the end of the season.  I trust Beane and McD when they say positive things about him.  I expect them to draft a guy who can play OG and C.  Doyle and Anderson will compete for the back up OT spot.  With the tight cap, I think they will resign their own and bring in training camp fodder.  

 

I don't think people forget that.  The bottom line is that the R side of our OL was a fiasco, and the best that can be said of Brown is that he has yet to prove he can pass protect as a RT.

 

Why do you trust Beane and McD when they say positive things about him?  At this time of year, That's Their Job.  They said positive things about Cody Ford, too.

[Solomon Grundy]

On 3/20/2023 at 7:30 AM, Nitro said:

People forget he was recovering from a back injury last season.  He was improving towards the end of the season.  I trust Beane and McD when they say positive things about him.  I expect them to draft a guy who can play OG and C.  Doyle and Anderson will compete for the back up OT spot.  With the tight cap, I think they will resign their own and bring in training camp fodder.  

What happens if back injury flares up again?? Quesenberry?? I'd rather have another option

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am sort of curious what you all do after your mock draft. Do you go back at the end of season and see who did best? 

So after the draft we do a delta value of guys that got picked at the spot in our draft/vs real draft. Guys with the highest delta value are considered the best drafters. 
 

All guys who go undrafted are calculated as if they would be the next pick. 
 

As an example I drafted Merriweather at 256 and he’s drafted at 156 I would gain + 100 in the delta and vice versa. 
 

 

I also go back a couple years. Just like any GM I’ve crushed a few, average a few and stunk in a few.

 

Maybe later I’ll post a couple of my past ones. I haven’t always been the Bills as there are a couple other Bills fans who have participated and it’s only fair