RT in First Round

[MasterStrategist]

9 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Outside of LB the Bills greatest need is RT. I’ve been a big SB fan but last year he fell back. BB has mentioned his injury and lack of prep leading into the season. Also blocking in the NFL vs at NI is an adjustment. All that is true but just bringing in a vet to compete isn’t enough. Our QB is Josh Allen let’s continue to improve around him. Harrison from Oklahoma or Jones from Ohio State in the 1st. If SB wins the job great but most likely he become the back up. What do you all think ? 

Spencer Brown says hi.  He's a talent, hasn't had a full NFL offseason until this yr.  Sign a vet, just for insurance.

 

Beane needs to stock the WR weapons.  Josh needs help from other consistnrt playmakers, besides Stefon.

 

Also a good position of value to draft round 1 and get 5 years 

[Dr. Who]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

Neither is G but they get taken all the time, the BPA is a myth, we are in serious need of a G or T, there should be plenty rated around our pick. Get the best OL who can keep our QB upright. We can draft all the WR, TE or RB imaginable, if Allen isn't on the field due to injury because we once again neglected to protect him then what good will they be?

If there is an offensive lineman worthy of 27, I am not against it. I think you can get the same quality that is going to be available there in this particular draft at 59. I've been strongly advocating for improving the oline and protecting Allen. It would be tedious to search, I suppose, but if you look through my posting history it will be evident that I agree on the optimum end result, but I think your strategy is not the most prudent.

2 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Spencer Brown says hi.  He's a talent, hasn't had a full NFL offseason until this yr.  Sign a vet, just for insurance.

 

Beane needs to stock the WR weapons.  Josh needs help from other consistnrt playmakers, besides Stefon.

 

Also a good position of value to draft round 1 and get 5 years 

WR talent in this draft alas is below that of recent years. Maybe somebody falls or you reach a bit on Hyatt, for instance. I do agree that WR is one of those positions you give the benefit of the doubt to in the first.

[MasterStrategist]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If there is an offensive lineman worthy of 27, I am not against it. I think you can get the same quality that is going to be available there in this particular draft at 59. I've been strongly advocating for improving the oline and protecting Allen. It would be tedious to search, I suppose, but if you look through my posting history it will be evident that I agree on the optimum end result, but I think your strategy is not the most prudent.

WR talent in this draft alas is below that of recent years. Maybe somebody falls or you reach a bit on Hyatt, for instance. I do agree that WR is one of those positions you give the benefit of the doubt to in the first.

Yes on a Wr, and agree the top end talent isn't of years past.

 

But....I'm a big fan of Flowers and Downs, and what they bring to the offense.  Hyatt, I'm more iffy, because he's basically a replacement for Gabe...maybe that's what front office wants, but think slot versatility is more important/short passing game

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

In general, RT is not a position you dedicate a first rounder to. Picking a RT at 27 isn't justified by past failed picks. It is only justified if the player you select merits that high a pick. I don't think it likely the board will fall that way. There's a good chance this is a draft where you trade down if you can find a willing partner. Otherwise, BPA is usually smarter than reaching for need. I want to improve the oline and give better weapons to Josh, but that doesn't equate to taking a fella a round or two early just because he plays a certain position.

Totally agree. I don’t want the Bills to reach. But if the right guy is there I’ve just posed the question why not. Certainly LB and WR need to be considered. But I think if Josh is consistently upright more often …he can find they open guys. Again, if WR or LB are at 27 and the BPA that’s fine. Just RT needs consideration. I’m glad for all the dialogue. First thread I’ve started although I’ve been chiming in on others.

[billsfan89]

I am think WR in round one likely able to get a RT in round 2 that can compete with Brown provide depth.

[jahnyc]

At least with regard to our free agent focus to this point, it seems that the Bills are okay with an adequate o-line rather than making a concerted effort to significantly improve it.  McGovern hopefully will be an upgrade from Saffold, but Bates and Dawkins are average and Brown had a poor season last year.  I guess Brown can improve given his lack of reps going into last season because of his back surgery, but do we really think it is likely that Dawkins, Morse or Bates will improve from last season?  Kramer has a great reputation, but, if anything, the o-line play was worse last year than the year before.

 

I know that we are financially constrained and will be for the foreseeable future with significant other holes to fill in the draft, but McBeane will need to figure out a way to improve the o-line.

Edited March 20, 2023 by jahnyc

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, jahnyc said:

At least with regard to our free agent focus to this point, it seems that the Bills are okay with an adequate o-line rather than making a concerted effort to significantly improve it.  McGovern hopefully will be an upgrade from Saffold, but Bates and Dawkins are average.  Brown had a poor season last year at RT.  I guess Brown can improve given his lack of reps going into last season because of his back isuregery, but do we really think it is likely that Dawkins, Morse or Bates will improve from last season?  Kramer has a great reputation, but, if anything, the o-line play was worse last year than the year before.

 

I know that we are financially constrained and will be for the foreseeable future with significant other holes to fill in the draft, but McBeane will need to figure out a way to improve the o-line.

Oline instantly looks better with a quick hitting passing game.  A 1st round Wr will help that...

 

Too many long developing pass plays.  We lack anyone that can win 1-1, except Stefon.  Help the Wr room, in turn helps thr playcalling and oline.

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Hmm not sure. I’m not saying I’m out on SB at RT. He or another player need to improve that spot. He certainly can run block. Just not sure if with his height inside will work? That’s a solve for our OL coach who is supposed to be a guru. But last year was disappointing with respect to our OL development. 

Yeah I get you. I wasn’t sure where that was going. Yes the Bills are in fact a SB contender. 

Sorry but a 6-8 RG is not going to work for passing lanes.  Spencer's feet are just way too slow. He'll be backup depth for the remainder of his contract.  I could live with Campbell, Jones and Tillman in the first 3 picks.

[CookieG]

10 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Outside of LB the Bills greatest need is RT. I’ve been a big SB fan but last year he fell back. BB has mentioned his injury and lack of prep leading into the season. Also blocking in the NFL vs at NI is an adjustment. All that is true but just bringing in a vet to compete isn’t enough. Our QB is Josh Allen let’s continue to improve around him. Harrison from Oklahoma or Jones from Ohio State in the 1st. If SB wins the job great but most likely he become the back up. What do you all think ? 

I had a feeling you'd get a few groans.  No worries.  The "you don't draft a RT!!!!" faction is as strong as the "you can always find them in the later rounds" faction. (though they never do.).

 

I'll throw out another name I'd be considering at RT.  Darnell Wright of Tenn.  He didn't give up a sack this season, in SEC competition.  He worked hard on his footwork before last season, and it showed.  He shut down Will Anderson of Bama, who is largely considered the best edge rusher in the draft. 

 

To borrow from the Magnificent Seven (the original):

 

VIllager 1:  There's a guy we are looking for...look at the scars on his face.

Villager 2:  The man we want is the guy who gave him his scars.

Yul Brynner:  You learn fast. 

 

There is 0 things wrong with taking a quality RT at 27. I liked the Spencer Brown draft pick,  I still don't have a problem with it.  But a back injury needing some type of medical procedure at that early age...yeah it makes me nervous.

 

It wasn't just missing training camp last year, as Beane likes to say.  Damn, he was starting by about the 4th game last year, his rookie year.  And he looked better in 2021 than in 2022. Something didn't look right with him last year.  And with a bad back, I don't have a great deal of hope for improvement...not for a guy colliding with 300 lb.  repeatedly.

 

Taking Jones from Ohio State...damned..idk.  He looked really, really dominating in his Senior bowl practice until he got hurt...I just have Mike Williams flashbacks. 

[CookieG]

7 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

But that doesn’t have to be in the first round. 
 

Lane Johnson was a top 5 pick in a quarterback-less draft. 
 

The rest? 
LT 7th round

LG 2nd round

C 6th round

RG 3rd round

 

Find good players who fit your scheme. Aside from that terrible Andre Dillard pick and Danny Watkins, both terrible busts in the first round, the Eagles have spent draft capital on their defensive line men and WRs. 

Nah, they took Lane Johnson, not only in the 1st round, but at no. 4.  And that was when they had an All Pro LT on their roster (who they got from us).

 

True, they got Kelce in the late rounds...but and were smart enough to keep him for his entire career, as they did with Lane Johnson.

 

Their 2nd round left guard was the 1st pick of the 2nd, or about 5 picks from 27..where we are now picking.  And they used another 2nd this last year on an IOL, despite having Kelce still there. When they miss, like they did on Dillard, they aren't afraid of picking OL again.

 

As far as their late round picks...ask yourself...how many of them as this regime found?  We are talking 5 years now...and the only one they found..they dumped.

 

Damn, go back with this team and the last one you can find of these mid-late round gems is Jason Peters, over 20 years ago.

 

Philly can find the late round picks because...they are good at it.  And they place more importance on the OL unit as a whole.  They don't simply say, "we need 'A' tackle..or 'A' guard," and then throw a dart at the board.  They have the e v a l. skills to pick the right OL player. 

 

That's not the BIlls, or this current regime.  They are good at other areas, especially DBs.  But OL...not their strong suit.  If I were Beane, I'd be bringing in a few of the best OL minds in the scouting realm, at least for this draft.  Nothing wrong with asking for help.

 

Those who say, "we can get one later in the draft"   usually end up with a subpar OL, and wonder why these middle round picks are turnstiles. 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I agree with the trade up, we don’t need 7 new players. 

We only have six picks

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Outside of LB the Bills greatest need is RT. I’ve been a big SB fan but last year he fell back. BB has mentioned his injury and lack of prep leading into the season. Also blocking in the NFL vs at NI is an adjustment. All that is true but just bringing in a vet to compete isn’t enough. Our QB is Josh Allen let’s continue to improve around him. Harrison from Oklahoma or Jones from Ohio State in the 1st. If SB wins the job great but most likely he become the back up. What do you all think ? 

 

 

They know a lot more than we do.

 

They have the medicals. We don't. What they do will likely tell us how concerned they are about this. My guess is that they said what they meant and they think he'll get better as he gets healthy, and that they just aren't as worried about this as you are. 

 

It's a guess. But I don't think they feel this is as big a need as you do. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Thurman#1

[akcash]

I'd like a player that can play RT or either guard spot. Gives us insurance and flexibility. I do think Spencer Brown and Ryan Bates played pretty Darn well the last game of the season.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I agree with the trade up, we don’t need 7 new players. 

  

 

Correct. We need more. We need to keep taking shots because some percentage of those shots will turn out to be guys like Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Christian Benford, Dane Jackson, Wyatt Teller, Isaiah Hodgins, Khalil Shakir and Damar Hamlin and Tyler Bass. 

 

You have to keep bringing guys through, giving them time and effort and chances to develop. This is what all the studies say, that the way to maximize the chances you get good results in your draft is to maximize the number of picks. And that if you want to minimize the chances of good results, minimize the number of picks with tactics like trading up. The Massey and Thaler study was the fore-runner and still the one that gets the most publicity, but when people study this they all come up with the same answer. Trade down. That's how to maximize value. If you trade up, do it in small increments and only give up later picks, but overall, trade down. The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective is another, and there are lots more. I like the way Reynold, Bonds, Thompson and LeCrom put it, "Additionally, the logistic regression indicated that the more draft picks a team has, the more likely it is to make the playoffs in the future."

 

We only have six picks.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, CookieG said:

Nah, they took Lane Johnson, not only in the 1st round, but at no. 4.  And that was when they had an All Pro LT on their roster (who they got from us).

 

True, they got Kelce in the late rounds...but and were smart enough to keep him for his entire career, as they did with Lane Johnson.

 

Their 2nd round left guard was the 1st pick of the 2nd, or about 5 picks from 27..where we are now picking.  And they used another 2nd this last year on an IOL, despite having Kelce still there. When they miss, like they did on Dillard, they aren't afraid of picking OL again.

 

As far as their late round picks...ask yourself...how many of them as this regime found?  We are talking 5 years now...and the only one they found..they dumped.

 

Damn, go back with this team and the last one you can find of these mid-late round gems is Jason Peters, over 20 years ago.

 

Philly can find the late round picks because...they are good at it.  And they place more importance on the OL unit as a whole.  They don't simply say, "we need 'A' tackle..or 'A' guard," and then throw a dart at the board.  They have the e v a l. skills to pick the right OL player. 

 

That's not the BIlls, or this current regime.  They are good at other areas, especially DBs.  But OL...not their strong suit.  If I were Beane, I'd be bringing in a few of the best OL minds in the scouting realm, at least for this draft.  Nothing wrong with asking for help.

 

Those who say, "we can get one later in the draft"   usually end up with a subpar OL, and wonder why these middle round picks are turnstiles. 

 

 

 

 

"Go back with this team and the last one you can find of these mid-late round gems is Jason Peters, over 20 years ago," you say. Brad Butler in the 5th says hello. Wasn't the Bills fault he retired early to go into politics. He was a terrific value and a fine player. Seantrel Henderson was a good pick but his career was sabotaged by Crohn's disease. Other than that, I'd agree. 

 

2022 6th Luke Tenuta

2021 5th Tommy Doyle (but Spencer Brown in the 3rd)

2021 7th Jack Anderson

2020 none

2019  none (but Cody Ford in the 2nd)

2018 5th Wyatt Teller

2017 none (but Dion Dawkins in the 2nd)

 

That's this regime's OL draft history in the 4th round or later. It's not that they're bad at it. It's that they didn't do it three out of seven years and they didn't hang on long enough with Wyatt Teller, although he might not have ever fit this system as well as he fits the Clevelanders. We'll see with Anderson, Doyle and Tenuta, so far no 

 

In contrast, here's Philly:

 

2022 none (but Cam Jurgens in the 2nd round)

2021 none (but Landon Dickerson in the 2nd round)

2020 4th Jack Driscoll

2020 6th Prince Tega Wanogho

2019 none (but Andre Dillard in the 1st round)

2018 6th Matt Pryor

2018 7th Jordan Mailata

2017 none 

 

Their success appears to come at least partly from simply investing more resources there. Each team has a relative failure early, Ford in Buffalo and Dillard in the 1st in Philly, a success early, in Dawkins and Dickerson, and a guy who was picked early but can't be graded yet, in Spencer Brown and Cam Jurgens).. But in the first three rounds Philly invested higher picks (1st, 2nd and 2nd) and Buffalo a bit lower (2nd, 2nd and 3rd). In the lower rounds, Philly invested four picks (7th, 6th, 6th 4th, vs. Buffalo's four (5th, 7th, 5th, 6th). Both had a success, Mailata and Teller, but the Philly picks appear to be more known quantities, with Driscoll (whose father was a Bills draftee), in the 4th in 2020 being a possibility while they didn't draft anyone in the last two years, but Buffalo having two guys in the past two years, neither of whom has proven much but both (Tenuta in GB) showing some good signs.

 

Appears more of a case of putting more resources into it.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Nitro]

RT is not a need.  OG will be selected some where in the first three rounds.  Do not be surprised if a TE is selected in the first round.

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Nitro said:

RT is not a need.  OG will be selected some where in the first three rounds.  Do not be surprised if a TE is selected in the first round.

Yeah, I’m gonna have to disagree. That right tackle is not a need.

 

Until Spencer Brown has shown, they can actually hold down that position we need to keep looking

 

Ideally, it would be great if we could find a guy that could play both tackle and guard

[Nitro]

31 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Yeah, I’m gonna have to disagree. That right tackle is not a need.

 

Until Spencer Brown has shown, they can actually hold down that position we need to keep looking

 

Ideally, it would be great if we could find a guy that could play both tackle and guard

People forget he was recovering from a back injury last season.  He was improving towards the end of the season.  I trust Beane and McD when they say positive things about him.  I expect them to draft a guy who can play OG and C.  Doyle and Anderson will compete for the back up OT spot.  With the tight cap, I think they will resign their own and bring in training camp fodder.  

[machine gun kelly]

20 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Outside of LB the Bills greatest need is RT. I’ve been a big SB fan but last year he fell back. BB has mentioned his injury and lack of prep leading into the season. Also blocking in the NFL vs at NI is an adjustment. All that is true but just bringing in a vet to compete isn’t enough. Our QB is Josh Allen let’s continue to improve around him. Harrison from Oklahoma or Jones from Ohio State in the 1st. If SB wins the job great but most likely he become the back up. What do you all think ? 

Spencer Brown spent the entire off season last year with back and neck issues.  He had a solid rookie season.

 

Thus is an overreaction by far.  Brown is solid and with a healthy off season should move forward.  
 

our needs are far greater at WR, TE #2, G, and LB.

 

Thats where we need to spend our time.

[MrEpsYtown]

8 hours ago, CookieG said:

Nah, they took Lane Johnson, not only in the 1st round, but at no. 4.  And that was when they had an All Pro LT on their roster (who they got from us).

 

True, they got Kelce in the late rounds...but and were smart enough to keep him for his entire career, as they did with Lane Johnson.

 

Their 2nd round left guard was the 1st pick of the 2nd, or about 5 picks from 27..where we are now picking.  And they used another 2nd this last year on an IOL, despite having Kelce still there. When they miss, like they did on Dillard, they aren't afraid of picking OL again.

 

As far as their late round picks...ask yourself...how many of them as this regime found?  We are talking 5 years now...and the only one they found..they dumped.

 

Damn, go back with this team and the last one you can find of these mid-late round gems is Jason Peters, over 20 years ago.

 

Philly can find the late round picks because...they are good at it.  And they place more importance on the OL unit as a whole.  They don't simply say, "we need 'A' tackle..or 'A' guard," and then throw a dart at the board.  They have the e v a l. skills to pick the right OL player. 

 

That's not the BIlls, or this current regime.  They are good at other areas, especially DBs.  But OL...not their strong suit.  If I were Beane, I'd be bringing in a few of the best OL minds in the scouting realm, at least for this draft.  Nothing wrong with asking for help.

 

Those who say, "we can get one later in the draft"   usually end up with a subpar OL, and wonder why these middle round picks are turnstiles. 

 

 

 

So I distinctly remember that they drafted Lane Johnson to be Peters' replacement and I was trying to remember why, but I couldn't so I had to look it up.

 

Johnson was drafted in 2013. The fact that the Eagles were drafting in the top 5 was because they had a terrible season in 2012. They had a meh season in 2011 - Vince Young's dream team- after drafting a terrible guard in the first round Danny Watkins,  and Sean McDermott was the scapegoat firing. So why were they so bad in 2012? Juan Castillo defensive coordinator. Also, in the spring of 2012, Peters ruptured his Achilles tendon. A couple of months later, he re-ruptures his Achilles and King Dunlap is their starting LT all year and he is awful. Jason Kelce was also hurt. The Eagles go 4-12 and Andy Reid gets fired.

 

So fast forward to the 2013 draft, the Eagles aren't sure if a 30-year-old Peters is going to recover and aren't sure if he will still be good. Achilles injuries are tough for OL and especially for a guy who is 330+ and relies on his athletic ability. They draft Johnson with the intention of him replacing Peters, but Peters makes a miraculous recovery and actually continues to play well with Johnson at RT. As the years go by, Johnson expects to eventually move to LT, but Peters sticks around until he is like 38 years old and the Eagles don't want to move Johnson at that point.  

 

My overall point is that Johnson is the best RT in football, who should be playing LT, but circumstances put him on the right side. A great pick in an extremely weak first round, the Eagles also came away with Zach Ertz and Jordan Poyer in that draft. Johnson is the example of when picking a non-LT goes right, but the Eagles had every intention of having Johnson be their left tackle. I would say that the best "pure RT" 1st round pick who has worked out is Jack Conklin. He has been hurt a lot, but there is no denying that he is an excellent player. Another I would say is Tristan Wirfs, who was also drafted with the intention of eventually moving him to LT, which it looks like the Bucs will do this year. 

 

Good point on Landon Dickerson. With that in mind, it seems that most people feel like there are only 15 first-round players in this draft. The value of pick 27 is really the second round. Because of that, I won't riot if they pick a non-LT OL, however, I would prefer they use some of those mid-round picks on guards etc. 

 

Obviously, the draft is a crap shoot and I understand that most guys can be boom or bust. When you take a non elite non-LT in the first round there is no boom with the bust, and that is why I am typically against it.