The Cincy game & its affect on how we view the team

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

Thompson didn't have a great day against the Bills. That game is a blowout in the Bills favor without the turnovers - especially Josh's fumble/TD, and the pass that bounced off of Beasley.

 

 

You're cherry-picking stats.  

 

Against KC & Cinci the past three games in the playoffs our defense has absolutely stunk.  

 

We still gave up 24 offensive against Miami with Skylar Thompson.  I don't see how that happens with a #2 D in the playoffs under any circumstances at home with the energy the fans brought.  

 

[808]

33 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Agreed.... it was accurately said by many that the offense had no identity, tempo or creativity. Once Quessenberry got Josh injured,  the whole short game disappeared. Now you rely on deeper routes with lower completion percentages.  I'm not saying Dorsey had a great rookie season....he didn't,  but there are other obvious factors to take into consideration. 

 

some of that is on josh going hero mode. It looks like it pains him to throw the underneath and check down routes sometimes. He wants the homerun. I get it. But he gets some of that blame. Its what makes him him. But also what gets him wrecked

[PBF81]

46 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Didn’t impact games in the regular season?  I’m not sure what you mean.  The front 7 took a nosedive with von out…I’m not sure how anyone can disagree with that point.  We went from top 5 in the league in pressure rate to bottom 1/4th.  
 

jets outgained us, NE outgained us, Miami put up 400+ yards.  Just because we won still doesn’t mean it wasn’t an issue.  It was just masked by an easy schedule to close out the year. 

 

In terms of ranking I mean.  

 

In the 11 games that Von Miller played we allowed an average 15.8 PA and 327 Total Yards per-game.  

In the 5 games w/o Von Miller, we allowed an average of 17.4 PA and 301 Total Yards-per-game.  

 

5 of the 6 worst Yards-Against games were with Von Miller on the field. 

3 of the 4 and 8 of the 10 worst Points-Against games were with Von Miller on the field. 

 

Our defense went south after the first two games after which time we allowed an average of 19.2 PPG and 334 yards-per-game.  That latter yardage figure would have been good for 15th, tied with Indy.  We only played three top-10 scoring or yardage teams all season outside the division.  Miami was 6th ranked in yards but 11th in points.  Against those three teams we allowed an average of 26 points and 398 yards. 

 

There was a massive overreaction after we beat the Rams and Titans in weeks 1 & 2, two teams thought to be good but which ended up being hot trash.  

 

You can spin things anyway you want, but at the end of the day we allowed fewer yards and did not surrender significantly more points w/ Von Miller out.  We also went 5-0, we were 8-3 with him in there.  

 

Other than KC, Von Miller did all but literally nothing in the two games against the other two top-10 offenses.  

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, 808 said:

some of that is on josh going hero mode. It looks like it pains him to throw the underneath and check down routes sometimes. He wants the homerun. I get it. But he gets some of that blame. Its what makes him him. But also what gets him wrecked

 

It's odd, because he was so much better with the higher-percentage shorter stuff in 2021.  He's very bright, I thought he would take that development into this past season, but he regressed.  I still say that it was the lack of Beasley, our most popular player.  LOL  

 

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

Offense actually improved statistically.  Josh’s arm limited the quick screen game, OL was horrible, Gabe Davis caught 50% of passes thrown to him, L’Dirty experiment failed and we don’t have a RB on the roster capable of taking over a game.  But yeah Dorsey is the problem.

 

The sarcasm wasn't directed at me but there's a way you can make your point without being a d_ck bout it.

 

3 hours ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I’m not saying Dorsey is perfect but when your #2 can’t uncover or catch, your slot is so bad that he was replaced by a guy who sat on a couch for 15 weeks and your 4th year RB is clearly not prioritized by a single team in the NFL,  you're playcalling is gonna be effected. 

I’d also mention that sometime Josh is gonna do what Josh is gonna do regardless of scheme.  The Dolphins playoff game was a perfect example of that.  Guys were wide open underneath all game but he refused to take the easy stuff. 

Dorsey just got here as an OC

 

I understand the general defense of Dorsey but the criticism of him is based partly on his inability to reign-in Josh as Daboll successfully did.

 

It seems pretty clear that Daboll kept Josh on a shorter leash... to good results.

 

Of course we all hope that Dorsey learned from and will improve on his first year.

 

[ndirish1978]

We need dramatic improvement on the Oline. we need to replace brown at RT and we need a good G to push both of the current starters.  We couldn't use the limited weapons we had because they were so terrible. The defense just isn't going to cut it. We need 2 more GOOD dlinemen and a solid starting MLB just to be competitive.

[JerseyBills]

Been saying this! That was our 1st L where we were clearly beaten and basically dominated in 25-30 games,  so I think it has a ptsd effect on ppl. Buf been so consistent, so to see a team do that on both sides of the ball was shocking 

 

It was just a bad day at the office.  I'll look at the previous 30 games vs 1 game and come to the conclusion our SB window hasn't closed 1 bit. We're still elite and be contending for the 1 seed

13 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

We need dramatic improvement on the Oline. we need to replace brown at RT and we need a good G to push both of the current starters.  We couldn't use the limited weapons we had because they were so terrible. The defense just isn't going to cut it. We need 2 more GOOD dlinemen and a solid starting MLB just to be competitive.

Geez that's a lot. Can't have elite players at every position. Our DL will be fine with Von back. They looked night and day better with Von than without him. 

[Momma Pecoraro]

The team as designed rides and solely relies on the play of Allen.

 

Cincinnati left no deniability that Buffalo was / is severely flawed as an often entertaining but dubious Super Bowl contender.
 

No Allen, no contention.

 

Mediocre or worse OL. Zero pass rush absent Von who frankly mails in a lot of the 50% snaps he does play. 

 

13 seconds was egregious as it robbed the Bills of strong opportunity to win it all during the cost controlled part of Allen’s arc.
 

More importantly, it hamstrung the Bills ability to cleave and revitalize the roster to preserve long term financial flexibility leading to the overpay of Diggs at an advanced age, the signing of a geriatric Von to too much term and the retention of cost holes like Morse.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2023 by Momma Pecoraro

[Since1981]

That Miami game scares the bajesus out of me. Miami in Snow, nonTua. Put Cinci loss overlay, eeeeek. 

[NickelCity]

4 hours ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

So just ignore Josh‘s UCL injury which was reported to limit his throwing motion, the complete lack of offensive skill, the OL play and Beane’s putrid draft record 4 years running?

 

I'm certain that's not what I said. But I also saw major weaknesses in ability to adapt scheme when necessary. 

[Jim]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

Other than KC, Von Miller did all but literally nothing in the two games against the other two top-10 offenses.  

So idk if Minnesota fits in here, but Von had a huge sack on third down that for all intents and purposes should’ve put that game away. Unfortunately our recently re-signed superstar Cam Lewis thought an interception would be cooler than just knocking the ball away and winning the game. 
 

 

[ToGoGo]

I think we just need to look at it from 30,000 feet.

 

Pre-season favorite met expectations until mid-way through the season, including beating the Chiefs cleanly and clutchly (word?) in Arrowhead. Coming off the bye Allen gets loose with the football in the red zone, fights through tough injury, Davis gets the yips, adversity after adversity strikes, Von Miller out for the year, team fights and finds ways to win, Hamlin incident happens on top of everything, team still fights to win but games are getting closer, team lays down vs a good Bengals team. 

 

What I see is a very good to great football team that had a very unlucky year. Life tends to balance itself out. The following things will probably not happen next year:

 

1. Weather will not be so severe next year causing games to be moved and concerns about games being cancelled.

2. A player will not nearly die on the field during MNF. 

3. Allen will not throw as many red zone interceptions, considering he was historically good at not throwing red zone INTs prior to this year. 

4. Gabe Davis will have a better year more in line with his 1st two years and not have the catching yips.

5. Von Miller will likely remain healthy and improve the rest of the D-line through his presence.

6. Allen will likely not fight through a tough arm injury for half the year.

7. The team will not be as dependent on Allen & Diggs.

 

A lot of fans, post-Bengals game, want to argue about the team's ability to deal with adversity. I think it shows that they don't know what they're talking about and are ruled by their impulsive emotions. This team proved extra-terrestrially good at managing adversity. Jordan "Flu Game" type adversity handling. There is just a limit and I think we hit that. I don't think that is a "fan" problem but a "life wisdom" problem. You need to have been the "Man in the Arena" at some point in your life to understand what the limits of will power are, even if you are a winner. Sometimes life just says "NO!" no matter how hard you try. All in divine time, they say. 

 

With the above points balancing out, an improved O-line and hopefully RB and WR play, powerful ability to play through adversity when it happens, etc. etc. I think a Super Bowl win is just as likely as ever before. 

 

There are negatives we will have to deal with next year that we didn't last year: Edmunds is gone, Diggs is 30, Miller is a year older, salary cap is tighter, division is getting stronger, etc. I just don't think next year's negatives will be as strong as what we dealt with this year.

 

Overall, things will balance themselves out next year. And hopefully Diggs and Allen will be emotionally drained and hugging after a SB win and not after a mid-season Thanksgiving win. That defined the season for me and how impossible it was. We played last season on the "Impossible" level while Mahomes played it on "Kind of Hard". 
 

[birdo67]

Young minds are taking over the league and basically getting there - McVay looked like the unstoppable future.

Belichick is the oldest coach in the NFL, which skews the perspective on age and "wisdom."  Pete Carroll is the second oldest coach, which blows my mind, and I went to USC - I still love that guy.

Even with Frazier stepping away, the Bills still seem like they're coached by old men and old ideas.

[Goin Breakdown]

It may have been better if they got their a$$ kicked a few weeks before had Hamlin not been injured. Maybe the game plan would have been different. I doubt it but I have to wonder. 

[JMM]

17 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

I think we just need to look at it from 30,000 feet.

 

Pre-season favorite met expectations until mid-way through the season, including beating the Chiefs cleanly and clutchly (word?) in Arrowhead. Coming off the bye Allen gets loose with the football in the red zone, fights through tough injury, Davis gets the yips, adversity after adversity strikes, Von Miller out for the year, team fights and finds ways to win, Hamlin incident happens on top of everything, team still fights to win but games are getting closer, team lays down vs a good Bengals team. 

 

What I see is a very good to great football team that had a very unlucky year. Life tends to balance itself out. The following things will probably not happen next year:

 

1. Weather will not be so severe next year causing games to be moved and concerns about games being cancelled.

2. A player will not nearly die on the field during MNF. 

3. Allen will not throw as many red zone interceptions, considering he was historically good at not throwing red zone INTs prior to this year. 

4. Gabe Davis will have a better year more in line with his 1st two years and not have the catching yips.

5. Von Miller will likely remain healthy and improve the rest of the D-line through his presence.

6. Allen will likely not fight through a tough arm injury for half the year.

7. The team will not be as dependent on Allen & Diggs.

 

A lot of fans, post-Bengals game, want to argue about the team's ability to deal with adversity. I think it shows that they don't know what they're talking about and are ruled by their impulsive emotions. This team proved extra-terrestrially good at managing adversity. Jordan "Flu Game" type adversity handling. There is just a limit and I think we hit that. I don't think that is a "fan" problem but a "life wisdom" problem. You need to have been the "Man in the Arena" at some point in your life to understand what the limits of will power are, even if you are a winner. Sometimes life just says "NO!" no matter how hard you try. All in divine time, they say. 

 

With the above points balancing out, an improved O-line and hopefully RB and WR play, powerful ability to play through adversity when it happens, etc. etc. I think a Super Bowl win is just as likely as ever before. 

 

There are negatives we will have to deal with next year that we didn't last year: Edmunds is gone, Diggs is 30, Miller is a year older, salary cap is tighter, division is getting stronger, etc. I just don't think next year's negatives will be as strong as what we dealt with this year.

 

Overall, things will balance themselves out next year. And hopefully Diggs and Allen will be emotionally drained and hugging after a SB win and not after a mid-season Thanksgiving win. That defined the season for me and how impossible it was. We played last season on the "Impossible" level while Mahomes played it on "Kind of Hard". 
 

Great writeup,  but this is WAAAY too reasonable for this board! Don't you know that we are in free fall, the window has closed and McDermott/Beane are failures? 🙄🙄🙄

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, gjv said:

I think, the post-Hamlim on-field cardiac arrest Bills, were not the Bills team that played prior to that horrific event. Judging by the interviews after Hamlin's incident, especially Tre White's, I believe many players internalized the event and lost focus. No way would a depleted Patriot team or third-string-led Dolphins have been a match for the pre-Hamlin incident Bills. I'm hoping every player on the roster has come to terms with what happened to Hamlin and has moved on.

That is certainly plausible

[Einstein]

4 hours ago, Success said:

 

Thompson didn't have a great day against the Bills. That game is a blowout in the Bills favor without the turnovers - especially Josh's fumble/TD, and the pass that bounced off of Beasley.

 

 

So what? The QB fumbling and passes bouncing off receivers and ST miscues are all part of bad team play. 

 

The team did not look right since October but you keep ignoring that point

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

So what? The QB fumbling and passes bouncing off receivers and ST miscues are all part of bad team play. 

 

The team did not look right since October but you keep ignoring that point

There's little question that the cumulative effect of weather events, injuries to key players, serious health issues, and personal tragedies combined to diminish the Bills' play over the course of the season. The numbers for Dorsey's offense were not bad, but the game plans were uneven and he did not make use of the tools available to him. The weakness of both the DL and the OL eventually sunk the team and by the Cincy game, Josh and Co. were running on empty. Dorsey will have to make a leap. He may or may not, but there's no self-evident reason that he won't. I think adding another quality TE will be helpful and allow the implementation of more 12 personnel looks. We also need to bring a bruiser RB into the room. Personally, I'd like to upgrade WR 2, though I am not certain OBD feels that way. Hopefully McD taking over the D gets more out of the relatively unimpressive young DL acquisitions that Beane has spent quality picks on. Don't be surprised if they use a first round pick on a LB to replace Edmunds.

 

I've been meaning to ask you if you still think there is a viable steady state cosmology, and is it true that Niels Bohr was addicted to pistachios?

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, BillsFanSD said:

Okay, but . . . offense and ST are part of the game.  The Bills gave up 31 points to a team led by Skylar Thompson.  It doesn't really matter how many of those points are credited to the offense, the defense, or special teams.  That simply shouldn't happen.  Period.

I was responding to a comment about the defense’s performance, 

[That's No Moon]

IMO the Bengals exploited every weakness the Bills have and embarrassed them. They were on the way to doing the same thing in the earlier game too.

 

The lines are soft. The offense relies WAY too much on Allen. The defense is a joke against quality quarterbacks. I don't see any of this changing. The team is built around a quarterback but they go into every year with jobbers on 60 percent of the line. 

[Success]

38 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

So what? The QB fumbling and passes bouncing off receivers and ST miscues are all part of bad team play. 

 

The team did not look right since October but you keep ignoring that point

 

I'm not "ignoring" it.  I see the Miami game as a bit flukey in terms of how the Phins stayed in that game. If you want to choose to think that's "how we are," I can't really argue it. I just don't agree w/ it.

 

The team went through a LOT the last part of the season. More than any team I can remember.  When we lost to Cincy, I think it was easy to see the mental exhaustion as the game wore on.  Again - you can say that's "who they are," and I can't argue it.  Teams have to overcome adversity to win a championship. I just thought the adversity THAT team went through hit a tipping point.