The Cincy game & its affect on how we view the team

[ganesh]

17 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Plenty of obvious issues with the team well before the Cincy game, but that game crystallized - it was the hard slap across the face where even the most ardent deniers had to face reality.
 

Of course now, with time, some fans are right back to thinking the OL is good to go among other wishful thinking.😆

It would be good to list what the "Plenty of obvious issues" would be so that we can be objective.

 

I agree that the OL requires the upgrade;  so does all teams.  The Bengals played 3 backups against us.  I mean their talent level would have been below our starters right...but they played lights out...may be the scheme had something to do with it. 

 

The team went 13-3 in regular season...but after the Hamlin injury, they had too many things to overcome emotionally...

 

They had an odd year, where they had to dig themselves out of snow to travel to a game, were stuck in Chicago on Christmas and had to fly into Rochester; and the Hamlin injury in Cincinnati.  Not to forget that Knox lost his brother at the beginning of the season and their owner went into a real bad medical situation .  

 

The entire secondary was decimated at different times and so did the DL.   There was also a revolving door at the OL due to injuries.   It is hard to overcome so many things in the NFL and the team still finished 13-3 and lost close games to the Jets, Miami and Minnesota, with the Jets game being the only one where I thought they were bullied by the Jets defense. 

[letsgoteam]

On 3/18/2023 at 5:10 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

 

Now that we've had several weeks to process last season, I think it comes down to a series of unfortunate events. 

 

•Micah out for the season

•Josh's elbow injury 

▪︎ Von out for the season

• Damar almost dying

 

....then factor in blizzards,  shootings, Kim almost dying.  Name me one organization that could absorb all that and have the emotional capacity to advance.  There isn't one.  We won't take a step back as long as this team collectively takes a "deep breath". The chaos of 2022 will probably never be duplicated again.

 

The Damar play, if that doesn't happen, could have changed the season. Now, everyone likes to say that the Bills were going to lose that game regardless (based off of the playoff game, but weather conditions were much better that night in Cinn then the playoff game. Also, the Bills marched right down the field on their drive. Maybe the Bills win a shootout that night. If they would have won, they would have been the #1 seed, playing Jacksonville in the Divisional Round, off of a bye. If they win, they play KC or Cinn after having to play against each other.

 

Maybe what should be said is whatever team does not have to play one another in the divisional is the one that will goto the Super Bowl. Which is what has happened the last two years.

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

It wasn't the last month or so though. It was since October. 

 

The extenuating circumstance stuff is just excuses. The co-owner was ill when the Bills were smoking the Rams on national TV to open the season and embarrassing the Titans on MNF. The game being moved to Detroit due to snow had zero effect on how the season played out or the loss in the playoffs and that's a good thing, considering we play in Buffalo.

 

The ONLY extenuating circumstance even remotely plausible is Damar.

 

But even that's nonsense considering athletes often have their best performances after loved ones die. Remember Tiger Woods winning the major after his Dad's passing? Allen throwing for 3(?) TD's after his grandma passing? Brett Favre throwing for 4 TD's after his father passed? etc.

 

The extenuating circumstance stuff is just excuses. The team hadn't looked like a top 5 team since October. The playoff loss really wasn't all that surprising considering their play the 2-3 months preceding it.

 

He tries agreeing and it’s not enough. What a drama queen. Mad, much?

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

Why blame the defense only, I don't think the offense did any justice by scoring FGs in the Red Zone.

I’m just aggravated with that. This team is never once allowed to have an off day offensively. The defense can get steamrolled by every accurate QB and physical run team. Nobody cares. This offense avg like 28 points a game for 4 straight years and all everyone does is complain about the weapons. The defense is our problem. It’s been the problem. It’s asking way too much of this offense to put up 30 every single game. It’s not sustainable and it’s not right honestly. I’m blaming the defense. When you are getting zero resistance on every drive defensively, it makes the offense press.

[Airseven]

55 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It would be good to list what the "Plenty of obvious issues" would be so that we can be objective.

Terrible OL. Everyone struggling outside of perhaps Morse. No leverage, no push at LOS. Brown a turnstile. Saffold a shell. Allen reverting to his mean. Inaccurate, erratic, likely injured. Davis and McKenzie both non-factors. No support for Diggs. Knox stuck inline to help the porous OL or otherwise not utilized in pass game. Play-calling issues need not be elaborated upon here. No pass rush. No replacement for Miller. Epenesa a ghost. Oliver and Settle both non-factors. White slow and ineffective. Elam apparently benched at one point. Jackson lacking physicality. No replacement for Hyde. Poyer breaking down with an assortment of injuries. Lack of scheme aggression need not be elaborated upon here. These are off the top of my head to give you a fair reply. I’m sure I’m forgetting something sorry.

[BMWR100RT]

There is a lot of luck involved in winning championships. Injuries, bad calls, off field incidents, etc. can derail.

 

I am fairly convinced the Damar Hamlin injury and the emotional toll it took was too much for this team. I personally didn't sleep for all the days before the miracle and I'm not his friend/teammate.

 

I just can't believe the focus required at the top level wasn't effected. The talent was able to overcome the lethargic play until Cincinnati.  

[JohnNord]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

How much more simple can I make this?  Coaching staff's job is to have their playoff team mentally and physically ready for a playoff game. Plus they have to have a cogent game plan.

 

None of that was apparent that day.  It wasn't just a string of boneheaded player errors.   These guys were not properly prepared....and you conclude that this had nothing to do with coaching?

 

lol, ok--well argued.

You’re not understanding my point.  I’m not saying that the coaches are without blame.  I am saying that EVERYONE deserves their blame.

 

You want to try to say that everything is on coaching - which is very much a flawed argument.  The reason I bring up Edmunds and Oliver is a perfect example of this.  These are two players that you would not expect to get dominated by backup lineman.  Yet…watch the tape.  
 

By trying to scapegoat the entire loss on coaching, you are giving a pass to several players who just simply played small in big moments.  
 

Most people that aren’t ultra emotional about the loss and can think pragmatically understand why your argument and mind self is tremendously flawed.  

[mjt328]

Real problems with this team starting showing up back in early October.  

We keep hearing all the excuses (weather, Hamlin, etc.), but the alarm was sounding well before then.  A lot of fans just chose to sweep those issues under the rug, because the Bills managed to barely scrape by each week.  

 

Things didn't really change after getting smashed by the Bengals.

 

Those who are more optimistic still see the Bills as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and think our playoff performance was just a fluke.

Some of us still believe the Bills have major roster flaws, and have done almost nothing to upgrade the roster since the season ended.  

 

[Don Otreply]

On 3/18/2023 at 8:44 PM, TheBrownBear said:

The loss was demoralizing for sure, but part of me is still convinced we wore the wrong cleats and, combined with the wrong game plan for the weather, were essentially playing on skates all day.  I don't believe we are two touchdowns worse than the Bengals.

   Well, the Bengals were beating us soundly in the first game before it was called, and did so again in the second game, so…, yeah, right now they are are coached better and the players are playing better, is what it is.
 

   Could we next time around have better coaching/scheming, and play better? Yes this can happen, but history says that our coaches lack of desire to adapt/recognize the need come the postseason will continue to be the root cause of our early departure from the playoffs, the only counter to this likelihood is if Josh and the guys play lights out in every single playoff game…,  

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Meatloaf63]

On 3/18/2023 at 6:11 PM, Mr. WEO said:

Biggest game of the year and they came out flat, with no energy and poorly prepared. 
 

 

Explain the same look that happened in Cincinnati, we’re they just flat both games?

[damj]

Understood there was alot going on last season that the team had to deal with... Still the Cinncy exposed some weaknesses in our offensive and defensive approaches. If we adjust, we'll be fine, if not, we'll struggle to beat like Cinncy that use such a heavy short passing attack 

[Dopey]

11 hours ago, Airseven said:

Terrible OL. Everyone struggling outside of perhaps Morse. No leverage, no push at LOS. Brown a turnstile. Saffold a shell. Allen reverting to his mean. Inaccurate, erratic, likely injured. Davis and McKenzie both non-factors. No support for Diggs. Knox stuck inline to help the porous OL or otherwise not utilized in pass game. Play-calling issues need not be elaborated upon here. No pass rush. No replacement for Miller. Epenesa a ghost. Oliver and Settle both non-factors. White slow and ineffective. Elam apparently benched at one point. Jackson lacking physicality. No replacement for Hyde. Poyer breaking down with an assortment of injuries. Lack of scheme aggression need not be elaborated upon here. These are off the top of my head to give you a fair reply. I’m sure I’m forgetting something sorry.

Don’t apologize, keep going. It’s what you do. 

[UKBillFan]

In soccer, Manchester United lost 7-0 to Liverpool recently. They haven't lost since, qualifying for the next round in two separate competitions. The defeat was an embarrassment where every player bottomed out, but it didn't and hasn't defined their season. It doesn't mean they don't have issues to sort out in the long term but they are one of the best teams in England. That's very much like the Bills post Bengals. The big difference is Manchester United only had to wait four days for the next game, rather than close to eight months of it eating away at the players, staff and fan base.

 

(Sorry if someone else has made this point; I haven't read every page!)

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, Airseven said:

Terrible OL. Everyone struggling outside of perhaps Morse. No leverage, no push at LOS. Brown a turnstile. Saffold a shell. Allen reverting to his mean. Inaccurate, erratic, likely injured. Davis and McKenzie both non-factors. No support for Diggs. Knox stuck inline to help the porous OL or otherwise not utilized in pass game. Play-calling issues need not be elaborated upon here. No pass rush. No replacement for Miller. Epenesa a ghost. Oliver and Settle both non-factors. White slow and ineffective. Elam apparently benched at one point. Jackson lacking physicality. No replacement for Hyde. Poyer breaking down with an assortment of injuries. Lack of scheme aggression need not be elaborated upon here. These are off the top of my head to give you a fair reply. I’m sure I’m forgetting something sorry.

How the hell did this team then win 13 games and could have won 2 of the remaining 3 easily. !!!!'

 

McKenzie definitely had bad drops that hurt the team.  Davis actually had his best season (statistically) but could have been better.   

Allen was injured and definitely not his self post the injury. 

You cannot expect all your backups on defense to become super stars. 

I agree that the OL was a weakness and could have help Allen better.  But it was more of our defense not being able to stop star QBs (heck even a 4th stringer in the playoffs against Miami).  

[Einstein]

13 hours ago, Dopey said:

He tries agreeing and it’s not enough. What a drama queen. Mad, much?

 

I’m not really sure what you’re talking about.

 

My main point is that the crux of this thread is factually not true. It was not just the Cinci game where we looked bad. We have looked “off” since October.

[ddaryl]

I agree with the premise, the Cincinnatti game just was an inevitable outcome... Most everyone saw issues after the losses to both Miami and the Jets, and the way we struggled after that even in wins.....  From late October on I was hoping we would make adjustments, but we kept seeing the same issues over and over again 

 

 

I'm worried about Dorsey and our OC and I don't know what to expect from the D side.. Will McDermott run the D with a little more agressiveness or are we still gonna play 10 yards off the ball on 3rd and 5

 

 

[Shaw66]

I haven't read the entire thread, but I've been interested in this thread for a while.  I think the OP is on the right track. 

 

We misperceive the reality of the NFL, largely because our fan mentality clouds our judgment.   The reality of the NFL, like almost any other similar activity, is best understood by considering an ordinary bell curve.  In any season there are a few very good teams, a few very bad teams, and a lot of teams that are in the middle.  Over a few seasons, the bad teams generally improve to the middle group and the good teams fall back to the middle group, and other teams move down to the bottom or up to the top.   But in any given season, the Lombardi winner is likely to come from the group of very good teams.  

 

Some posters here talk about the Bills as though they aren't in the top group.  This is wrong with them, and that, and the coaches are stupid, and who knows what else?  The fact is that the Bills are one of the very best teams in the league.  That's true whether we examine statistics or we examine won-loss records or we ask coaches and GMs around the league.  

 

What about the Cincy game?   Well, I don't think it matters.  Whether the Bills got sort of blown out or lost a nail biter (which is exactly what happened the previous season), the reaction from a lot of people is the same - there are multiple things seriously wrong with this team and it's hard to imagine the Bills fixing them.  That reaction simply doesn't jibe with reality. 

 

Yes, the objective is to win the Super Bowl.  And yes, the Bills needed to do things differently in each of the past two seasons to win the Super Bowl, and yes, changes need to be made.  But changes are being made on EVERY team every season, because their players age and the salary cap forces personnel changes, etc., etc. etc.  There is a lot of luck that goes into winning it all, including injuries, weather, the schedule, etc.   All that any team can team is the best they can restocking the roster, adjusting offensive and defensive strategies, and try again.   

 

It is very clear that the Bills didn't have to do much different to have won 13 seconds instead of losing.   And I don't think they needed to do a lot different to beat the Bengals.  Look at the team stats for that game.   They are much closer than we remember the game.  It felt like the Bengals dominated, but if the Bills had gained 60 yards more, especially if 50 of those had come in the running game, the game would have been a statistical draw, and the score would have been a lot closer.  And/or, I would argue that if Micah Hyde had played in that game instead of Jaquan Johnson (he was, after all, the third string safety), the Bengals' passing attack would not have succeeded so much.  In my view, Hyde was the most important player on the defense, and his loss changed the season.   

 

I've said elsewhere, I don't get people talking about the Bills' need at receiver.   They have four good receivers, and Kumerow probably will again be on the roster, so they need one receiver who almost certainly won't see a lot of action.   What they need is a well-planned and well-run passing attack, which is on Dorsey.   

 

And what the Bills need is some luck.  Last season was an emotional train wreck, and I think it's foolish to deny it.  It was mess.  

 

2023 is a new season.  The Bills quite likely will be at the far right end of the bell curve again, because they are well coached, they have a solid roster without holes, and they have Josh Allen.   The question is whether they will do the things they need to do, and whether they will have some luck.  The fact that they didn't it do it last season or the season before really doesn't have much to do with whether they'll succeed next season.  Each season is a new season with a new team, and one or two teams will rise into the elite and one or two will fall from it.   Could the Bills fall from the elite?  Possibly.  The Packers had Rodgers and weren't elite every season.  It's not easy to stay on top.  So, yes, the Bills could fall, but I don't see that as likely.

 

The point is that the Bengals game was just one game; the judgment of a lot of people is colored by the how it felt for the Bills to lose that game.  The reality is, however, that the Bills are an elite NFL team that will continue to try to win the Super Bowl. 

[RiotAct]

37 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

I agree with the premise, the Cincinnatti game just was an inevitable outcome... Most everyone saw issues after the losses to both Miami and the Jets, and the way we struggled after that even in wins.....  From late October on I was hoping we would make adjustments, but we kept seeing the same issues over and over again 

 

yeah, the way we struggled to beat the Dolphins at home in the WCG with their 3rd-stringer under center was a pretty obvious sign of things to come, in hindsight.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

How the hell did this team then win 13 games and could have won 2 of the remaining 3 easily. !!!!'

 

McKenzie definitely had bad drops that hurt the team.  Davis actually had his best season (statistically) but could have been better.   

Allen was injured and definitely not his self post the injury. 

You cannot expect all your backups on defense to become super stars. 

I agree that the OL was a weakness and could have help Allen better.  But it was more of our defense not being able to stop star QBs (heck even a 4th stringer in the playoffs against Miami).  

They won 13 games because despite inconsistent coaching,  Josh is a fricken cyborg who plays thru injuries.  And as far as Davis having his so called best statistical year?  He had his worst catch rate of 51% and was 4th in the NFL amongst all wrs with 9 drops. We're not keeping Davis anymore than Oliver. 

[thunderingsquid]

I'll have whatever kool aid this guy is having