Singletary—inarguably above average statistically: discuss

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

They’re not going to take a creative avenue here and package players and picks to try and get impact.

 

If you could ship Gabe and a 3rd for Hopkins, but they need money relief. I don’t like the Jeudy idea as much, but he’d take #27 straight up or some combination. 
 

As fans, it’s hard to know who is available? 

 

They believe in Draft - Develop and Retain so they can’t afford eating dead cap in trades. 

I would totally do Jj for 27

 

I don’t believe that there’s a wide receiver in this draft that matches his talent

 

It would keep us from drafting a linebacker at 27 which I don’t want

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

I’ll take him back.  I think he’s underrated and is good enough to win a SB with.  And he’ll be cheap and allow us to spend draft picks elsewhere.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I would totally do Jj for 27

 

I don’t believe that there’s a wide receiver in this draft that matches his talent

 

It would keep us from drafting a linebacker at 27 which I don’t want

In college Jeudy was consistently dominant. 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Good post.

 

Yeah you’re right, Beane said it today in words and tone, they’re kind of stuck. They’ve done all they can to keep the band together that has won 3-Straight AFC East Titles. 

 

There seems to be a couple more restructure levers to pull, but Beane sounded like reluctant to that and I would be too.

 

He said they’re tight next year as well. 
 

 

I don’t want him to pull every restructure lever either we need to save some of that for future moves

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Like Scott Law and I have said, the Bills don’t seem like they have any urgency at WR 2.

 

They just picked up a 5’6” WR who has 64 career catches and Beane said they’re trying to finagle McKenzie’s contract despite his disastrous showing last year. 
 

If the FO brings back Phillips and Lawson on vet minimum deals, that’s $2.4M less in cap space and Beane said they were at $9M free today, with some provisioned for rookies and IR.

 

So it’s looking like Dodson is your MLB going into the draft, or they’ll have to dip into the restructure pot again. 
 

You could trade Oliver, but then you would have to take some of that $10M and re-sign Phillips or someone else, unless you’re drafting two DTs. 

2 days into the offseason in which there hasn’t been one legit WR2 acquired by any team:  “the Bills don’t seem like they have any urgency in finding a WR2”

 

you can’t make this stuff up. 
 

[DapperCam]

It’s always hard to tell with our RBs, because our run blocking has been pretty poor his entire tenure with the Bills, but he also faces light boxes all the time. I think he is a slightly above average back in balance, short area quickness and vision. But he has no top end speed and he doesn’t have the power to run a LBer over (or even a DB really) for a first down. He also seems to fumble a lot and drop passes (at least to my eyes).

 

I would rather we give Cook a chance to carry the load and bring in a bruiser that will get 1 yard no matter what. Even if he had to drag three guys.

Edited March 17, 2023 by DapperCam

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Good post.

 

Yeah you’re right, Beane said it today in words and tone, they’re kind of stuck. They’ve done all they can to keep the band together that has won 3-Straight AFC East Titles. 

 

There seems to be a couple more restructure levers to pull, but Beane sounded like reluctant to that and I would be too.

 

He said they’re tight next year as well. 
 

 

Blockbuster never felt they needed to change to fend off Netflix, yet here we are.  
 

I don’t hate running it back, as I do think this defense - when healthy - is probably a Top 5 unit. 
 

But, here we stand.. the Offense is still lacking around Allen when compared to KC, CIN and MIA, with NYJ right behind us. 

 

Doesn’t mean it stays that way .. but as of today, that’s where we’re at. 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by SCBills

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

2 days into the offseason in which there hasn’t been one legit WR2 acquired by any team:  “the Bills don’t seem like they have any urgency in finding a WR2”

 

you can’t make this stuff up. 
 

Actually I wasn’t whining at all.

 

SC, ScottLaw and John were having a good conversation on the roster construction and remaining holes.

 

Cool for you, got your cheap shot in.

 

But Beane and staff like Gabe and have said so a lot. And because of their cap and holes on D, it’s hard envisioning where another legit pass catcher is coming from despite some fans wanting it. 
 

Nobody was insulting anyone, until you showed up. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Can certainly do worse but he commands no attention from defenses.  He’s not explosive enough to break big runs and he’s not powerful enough to get the tough yards.  

 

He looked powerful enough to me when he got the game winning first down v Miami, carried 4 guys on his back for 10 yards if I recall correctly.

 

The guy is all heart and team first. If you can get him back for 3 yrs 9 mil I would do it no hesitation.

 

Running back is not the issue, it's the soft as butter O-line with all the push of a box jellyfish. Beef up the line and watch Cook / Motor / Hines go to work.

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'm not for or against the idea of Singletary coming back. I'm simply aware of the RB market situation and the emphasis this regime places on bringing back their own and team chemistry.

 

Motor is one of the most popular guys in the locker room. And we've always carried 4 RB's on the roster. Wouldn't shock me to see Hines taking Taiwan's spot being a core Special Teamer who provides more on offense than Taiwan did.

Hines is not a gunner. Taiwan has a very specific ST role especially with the Bills. The Bills will have a 3rd rb get snaps. Either Motor, another FA, or  a 5th or 7th round pick. 

[Playoffs?]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Gore averaged 3.6 against the same teams and the chiefs’ ypc since 2019 is under 4.7. Come up with a more empirically sound argument.

See above.

Why keep comparing him to Frank Gore?  
 

And are yards per carry the only metric that should be used to determine how good a runningback is?

[LeGOATski]

Yep, Singletary is just fine. They're a prolific offense without a star RB or big-bodied WR. If one of those types of players falls in their lap and is the BPA, then great.

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Gore averaged 3.6 against the same teams and the chiefs’ ypc since 2019 is under 4.7. Come up with a more empirically sound argument.

See above.

 

Gore was what, 36?  The Chiefs actually utilize their RBs inside the 10.  Mahomes has never come close to 700 rushing yards on the year.  Those carries go to the RBs, as they should.  

[GreggTX]

I agree that Motor is above average. He's very shifty, has good vision and balance, but his receiving skills and speed hold him back. If he could run a 4.4 and had bigger, softer hands, he'd be elite. I'd like either him, J Williams or B Robinson. The problem with our run game has long been the OL. McGovern is an average pass protector, but a very poor run blocker. I fear the rest of the OL will remain unchanged. If I were a FA RB, I don't think Buffalo would be a team I'd target in FA. I hope Cook improves in year 2, but he'll never be a workhorse type or a between the Tackles runner. I don't honestly see much of a role for Hines outside KR and I expect Hasty to win the PR job. I think that McDermott's relatively little experience working with offense as a former S and DC is the main reason that he and Beane continually sell the OL short of talent. Most other top teams have significantly better blocking and running, especially KC and Cincinnati. I think it's holding us back and placing too much pressure on Josh to carry the offense. This, in turn, has been one reason why he's turned the ball over so much.

[Freddie's Dead]

And I thought the McKittrick hate thread was wack.  All Motor does is produce when they hand him the rock, albeit behind a bottom half run blocking o line.  If we can get him cheap, he should stay.  Who else is out there that can deliver 4.7ypc at Motor's price?

[Niagara Dude]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Singletary has averaged 4.7 ypc for his career (and 4.7 in 2022) and the league average in the years he has played is between 4.3 and 4.4 (trust me, but look it up if you doubt me: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/league-average-yards-per-carry-by-running-backs-2022).  Since he has entered the league, he has always been above league average. And lest you think any RB can average these numbers, Frank Gore averaged 3.6 ypc in 2019 for the Bills (a year in which Allen had 510 yards rushing and nearly 5 ypc). Point is, the grass ain’t always greener.

4.65 FORTY,  he does not have enough speed or burst to be a starting level RB and that is why he is still available. His average is based on teams worried about Allen,  we need an upgrade.

[Niagara Dude]

5 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

I would say he’s an average back at best.

 

His YPC are a bit inflated IMO as he runs against a lot of light boxes and doesn’t get a ton of 3rd and shorts/goal line touches. (He did get more in 2022)

 

I do like his game as he plays tough. But he definitely has some flaws. (Fumbling, no break away speed)

No speed and no burst,  they need to upgrade the position and stop expecting Allen to run. 

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over hundreds of carries, it all averages out. Trust me. The sample size with Singletary (672 carries) is huge at this point.

672 carries in 4 years is really not a lot at all though and he’s never had 900 yards in his career. So  That’s an average of 10 carries a game basically over that span . Josh Jacobs alone last year had 340 lol.

 

My point is: He is only getting 10 carries a game, which is going to keep him more fresh/efficient.

 

He runs a lot against light boxes. And he didn’t get a ton of short yardage carries.

 

You add all that up and it makes sense why is YPC is good.
 

Give him 15-20 carries a game like a typical starting RB, and couple that with going against more 8 man fronts/short yardage carries? inarguably his YPC would drop significantly 

Edited March 17, 2023 by BillsFan130

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Gore was what, 36?  The Chiefs actually utilize their RBs inside the 10.  Mahomes has never come close to 700 rushing yards on the year.  Those carries go to the RBs, as they should.  

I’ve got no problem using Josh Allen as a threat, but I would much rather it be a decoy more than actually having him run it in places where he’s going to take a hit
 

Some of those interceptions that he had last year could’ve been prevented if we could have just ran the ball inside the red zone

[Charles Romes]

Singletary’s ypc numbers are artificially skewed upward by him not being good enough to be handed the rock when the tough short yardage yards are needed. Never having to run against short yardage defenses will certainly help your ypc. I am so sick of being 2nd and 2 and then worrying about how we are going to get the first down and the massive punishment josh is going to be taking the next few plays. Should have overpaid a little for Jamaal.