Lil dirty update - McKenzie released

[BillsShredder83]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's a pretty specific pair of criteria for evaluating WR.  What about # of receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G, stuff like that?  The # of TDs a WR has seems pretty heavily influenced by how the team operates and how they operate in the RZ vs the WR's overall contributions to the team.

 

It just seems like cherry-picking a pair of metrics by which you can claim kudos for Davis, while ignoring things like # receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G and such which also are metrics of how a WR contributes, but where Davis doesn't measure up so well.

 

Had to look it up.  Gabe's 48 was in a 5 way tie for 79th in receptions.  Behind a bunch of TE's and change of pace RB's 

 

48 catches would've been good enough to be 17th among TE's

Edited March 18, 2023 by BillsShredder83
hyperbole, then realized it was bad enough without

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

He could bring what he does on a much lower snap count.  Which sounds like reverse of McKenzies year. McK goes from role to starter and he has 100 more yards on the year.  Thats what we call a diminished return folks.  Theyre bad investments.

 

 If we can be factual a second, McKenzie had roughly double the snap count last season (54% vs 24% in 2021).  He more than  doubled his Y/G, 1st downs, and receptions.  He factually had 245 more yards.  So no, he didn't contribute what Beasley contributed in the slot, not even close, nor what the Bills needed from a #3 WR, but he didn't have a diminished return, either.  It's not necessary to exaggerate to make the former point.

 

I'm not sure Davis is a bad investment, either.  He's a late 4th round draft pick who has shown he can play in the NFL.  Any 4th round pick who can play in the NFL is a good investment - something like 10-15% of the guys drafted there can play.  He's playing on the 4th year of a late 4th round salary, so it's not like we're breaking the bank.

 

But he didn't step up as we hoped a #2 would do.  Some of his bad catch % is on Josh - Josh would target him when he was pretty well covered or on low % or off target throws.  But Davis had his chances to make game changing plays.  Sometimes he did.  Sometimes he didn't.  Bottom line, we aren't getting enough from him, as we didn't get enough from McKenzie.

 

To listen to Beane, however, he has full confidence in Davis as the Bills #2 and is concerned about how to re-sign him.  So 🤷‍♀️

[RocCityRoller]

 

Last I checked Yards and TDs won football games.

Davis does it in spades, but you don't like 'how he did it.'

 

Let's go with 'lowering the standards'.

 

Let's look at WRs with 700 yards receiving and 5 TDs.

Could you imagine the blow up if WR2 got 'only' 700 yards and 5 TD 🤣???

TSW would melt down!

 

No WR#2 worth his salt would have less than 700 yards and 5 TDs according to TSW....

 

But hey don't let facts mess with the mob....

Only 27 WR IN THE NFL in 2022 had more than 700 yards and 5 TDs in 2022.

 

Not even 1 per team 🤣

 

Gabe Davis was 836 / 7 as a #2 just to refresh the memory.....

but half of TSW thinks Davis sucks 🤣🤣🤣

 

Keep lowering those standards.

Maybe you can get a guy who has 1k yards and 4 TDs! 🤣🤣

or 500 yards and 8 TDs 🤣🤣

 

Heck.... Leaonard Fournette has an 80% catch rate

let's make him WR #2!!! 🤣🤣🤣

 

Honestly, this board is great.... Never refuses to amaze me and make me laugh.....

thanks guys. You are the best... 🤣🤣

[BillsShredder83]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 If we can be factual a second, McKenzie had roughly double the snap count last season (54% vs 24% in 2021).  He more than  doubled his Y/G, 1st downs, and receptions.  He factually had 245 more yards.  So no, he didn't contribute what Beasley contributed in the slot, not even close, nor what the Bills needed from a #3 WR, but he didn't have a diminished return, either.  It's not necessary to exaggerate to make the former point.

 

I'm not sure Davis is a bad investment, either.  He's a late 4th round draft pick who has shown he can play in the NFL.  Any 4th round pick who can play in the NFL is a good investment - something like 10-15% of the guys drafted there can play.  He's playing on the 4th year of a late 4th round salary, so it's not like we're breaking the bank.

 

But he didn't step up as we hoped a #2 would do.  Some of his bad catch % is on Josh - Josh would target him when he was pretty well covered or on low % or off target throws.  But Davis had his chances to make game changing plays.  Sometimes he did.  Sometimes he didn't.  Bottom line, we aren't getting enough from him, as we didn't get enough from McKenzie.

 

To listen to Beane, however, he has full confidence in Davis as the Bills #2 and is concerned about how to re-sign him.  So 🤷‍♀️

You're right on doubling his y/g and recs, but 423/42 is damn low for a starting slot, so it was not a good year, and especially not in our offense. Him and Gabe were certainly not carrying their weight, and it showed by what Diggs was asked to do. I dont blame him at all for the frustration.

 

On the Gabe side of things.  Investment was a bad word.  Not at all a bad return on the 4th, and think he'd be an #3 on the outside, but he can't be a starter.  I dont care how we do it really, but it as absolutely crucial that we find a replacement.  We're cap strapped.  Move Ed for what you can to offload that salary, the offense needs that money, or the pick 

 

Sign OBJ in a few weeks after $$ comes down, or pluck another guy they like.

 

Or, wait to make an on the fly trade, go up for a guy you like better .  #27, a 3rd (preferably lower) this year, then whatever it takes from next years, to go get a guy you're in love with.  Rest of draft can be OL heavy. Later rounds for LB/S/RB.  It's gunna hurt, but the offense has been long neglected its time to get aggressive

[boyst]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I think unless there's an injury to Deonte Harty or Khalil Shakir before the season or during it, it wouldn't make sense. You don't need 3 slot WR's on the team.

Crowder and Brown didn't hold up last year McKenzie did.

[BillsShredder83]

45 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Last I checked Yards and TDs won football games.

Davis does it in spades, but you don't like 'how he did it.'

 

Let's go with 'lowering the standards'.

 

Let's look at WRs with 700 yards receiving and 5 TDs.

Could you imagine the blow up if WR2 got 'only' 700 yards and 5 TD 🤣???

TSW would melt down!

 

No WR#2 worth his salt would have less than 700 yards and 5 TDs according to TSW....

 

But hey don't let facts mess with the mob....

Only 27 WR IN THE NFL in 2022 had more than 700 yards and 5 TDs in 2022.

 

Not even 1 per team 🤣

 

Gabe Davis was 836 / 7 as a #2 just to refresh the memory.....

but half of TSW thinks Davis sucks 🤣🤣🤣

 

Keep lowering those standards.    ****the irony here

Maybe you can get a guy who has 1k yards and 4 TDs! 🤣🤣

or 500 yards and 8 TDs 🤣🤣

 

Heck.... Leaonard Fournette has an 80% catch rate

let's make him WR #2!!! 🤣🤣🤣

 

Honestly, this board is great.... Never refuses to amaze me and make me laugh.....

thanks guys. You are the best... 🤣🤣

I'm 90% sure you're going to do everything in your power to NOT answer this

 

Below i've circled games that are 100% unacceptable from a #2 WR.

There are 9 of his 15 games played circled

7 of the 9 have no TD's

 

Which of these are acceptable to you for a WR2 to have?

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by BillsShredder83

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You're right on doubling his y/g and recs, but 423/42 is damn low for a starting slot, so it was not a good year, and especially not in our offense. Him and Gabe were certainly not carrying their weight, and it showed by what Diggs was asked to do. I dont blame him at all for the frustration.

 

On the Gabe side of things.  Investment was a bad word.  Not at all a bad return on the 4th, and think he'd be an #3 on the outside, but he can't be a starter.  I dont care how we do it really, but it as absolutely crucial that we find a replacement.  We're cap strapped.  Move Ed for what you can to offload that salary, the offense needs that money, or the pick 

 

Sign OBJ in a few weeks after $$ comes down, or pluck another guy they like.

 

Or, wait to make an on the fly trade, go up for a guy you like better .  #27, a 3rd (preferably lower) this year, then whatever it takes from next years, to go get a guy you're in love with.  Rest of draft can be OL heavy. Later rounds for LB/S/RB.  It's gunna hurt, but the offense has been long neglected its time to get aggressive

 

I certainly don't disagree with you that the offense needs a serious investment

 

A 5th year guy who hasn't broken 1000 yds total in all 4 of his years may be a good player who hasn't had his chances yet - but he's sort of in the space of "Bonus, if he works out"

 

TBH, I don't really know what's typical for a slot around the league.  Are there stats for slot receivers broken out somewhere?  It's not the output of a top-5 slot, for sure.

 

McKenzie clearly wasn't in Beasley's league for contributions Beasley made in Buffalo - but if we look at Beasley's career and exclude his rookie season, in 3 out of 6 seasons with Dallas he had fewer than 42 catches and 423 yds.  In the first season where Beasley had more than 50% of the snaps, 2015, he had 52 catches for 536 yds, which is better -33.5 ypg vs 28.5 ypg - but not over-the-moon, out of sight better.  He got more targets that year, too - 75 targets vs 65 for McK this year. 

 

Beasley was one of the top slot receivers in the league while he was in Buffalo, and maybe our expectations, filtered through that lens, are a bit out of whack.  If we want to replace one of the top slots in the league, clearly we didn't do that, but we may find that Shakir or another player signed to play slot fall short as well.

 

[BillsFanForever19]

16 minutes ago, boyst said:

Crowder and Brown didn't hold up last year McKenzie did.

 

Well, again, if Harty or Shakir doesn't hold up in Training Camp or the regular season and McKenzie's still out there, maybe that's something we'd look into. But at the moment, there is no spot for him on the roster. That's why he was released. It wasn't that 2.5 million was just too much money for him. He's been replaced. 

[DapperCam]

I’ll miss McKenzie. He was a fun player and had some fun plays. But he also wasn’t consistent enough, and I don’t think the coaching staff really liked or trusted him anyway.

 

McKenzie and Davis both got promotions last year to bigger roles in the offense, and I would say both pretty much failed. Now McKenzie is gone, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bills went WR in the first round or traded for someone like Jeudy to bump Davis down the depth chart.

 

I’m not impressed by Davis’ volume stats. He got 25% of his stats on 3 catches vs the Steelers, in a game we would have won if he wasn’t playing anyway.

[BananaB]

2 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

There were 16 WR in the entire NFL with 800+ yards receiving and 7+ TDs receiving.

Buffalo had 2 of them.

 

As many teams did not have Gabe Davis' production as a WR #1 as the Bills had from WR #2.

 

Miami had 2 (Hill/ Waddle), PHI had 2 (Brown/Smith), CIN had 2 (Chase/ Higgins) and Buffalo had 2 (Diggs/Davis)

That is not by accident.

 

With duplicates included, only 12 teams had a WR1 more productive than Gabe Davis.

Like it or not.

Kirk got signed for big money (people laughed), and Moore was a trade steal for Chicago.

 

The list of WR with 800+ yards and 7+ TDs

Justin Jefferson

Davante Adams

Tyreek Hill

CeeDee Lamb

Stefon Diggs

AJ Brown

DeVontae Smith

JaMarr Chase

Christian Kirk

Amari Cooper

Tyler Lockett

Jaylen Waddle

Brandon Aiyuk

Tee Higgins

Gabe Davis

DJ Moore

 

Pretty good list of WR.

 

By every metric Gabe Davis = DJ Moore.

 

Many teams would love to have DJ Moore be their #1 WR, yet TSW has pitchfroks for Davis. It is dumb herd mentality.

It’s the inconsistency.  You can blab about stats all you want but not many teams pass as much as we do and him being #2 means he benefited from it. He’s just too unreliable, plain and simple. 

[BillsShredder83]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I certainly don't disagree with you that the offense needs a serious investment

 

A 5th year guy who hasn't broken 1000 yds total in all 4 of his years may be a good player who hasn't had his chances yet - but he's sort of in the space of "Bonus, if he works out"

 

TBH, I don't really know what's typical for a slot around the league.  Are there stats for slot receivers broken out somewhere?  It's not the output of a top-5 slot, for sure.

 

McKenzie clearly wasn't in Beasley's league for contributions Beasley made in Buffalo - but if we look at Beasley's career and exclude his rookie season, in 3 out of 6 seasons with Dallas he had fewer than 42 catches and 423 yds.  In the first season where Beasley had more than 50% of the snaps, 2015, he had 52 catches for 536 yds, which is better -33.5 ypg vs 28.5 ypg - but not over-the-moon, out of sight better.  He got more targets that year, too - 75 targets vs 65 for McK this year. 

 

Beasley was one of the top slot receivers in the league while he was in Buffalo, and maybe our expectations, filtered through that lens, are a bit out of whack.  If we want to replace one of the top slots in the league, clearly we didn't do that, but we may find that Shakir or another player signed to play slot fall short as well.

 

I've tried to find breakdowns of stats comparing slot/outside and can't.  The only place i can even find WR snap count allignment breakdowns is Rotoworld, and they wanted my CC lol 

[OZBILLS]

Good

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Last I checked Yards and TDs won football games.

 

Actually, the last time I checked, passing yards were not positively correlated with wins.

 

TDs, yes, those win games - but they don't count more if the #2 WR scores them vs. the RB or the TE or a QB sneak.  Different teams have different ways to get the ball in the EZ.

 

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

Davis does it in spades, but you don't like 'how he did it.'

 

I'm not sure who you're talking to here.

 

The point people are trying to make to you is, there are a bunch of metrics for assessing how a WR is doing.  The WR job is, get open and catch the ball when it's thrown in his direction.  Deciding that the most important things to look at are yards and TDs, and excluding all the WR who didn't catch enough TDs, amounts to cherry picking metrics. 

 

Let's take it to an absurdity.  Suppose a guy has 3 great games a season.  He gains 125, 150, and 200 yds and scores 2, 3, and 4 TDs in those 3 games.  He plays in 12 other games.  In 6 of them he makes 2 receptions for 25 yds per game and no TDs and in 6 of them he makes 3 receptions for 30 yds.

 

He's got 805 receiving yards and 7 TDs!  He's GREAT!  Only a few other #2 WR have that many receiving yards and that many TDs! 

 

But the fact is, he hasn't contributed consistently in 12 out of the 15 games he's played.  Now every receiver has up-and-down games.  Diggs has games where he only has 2 or 3 receptions.  But to help sustain a top offense, the #2 really has to be a bit more consistent.  Davis had a lot of targets last season.  He only hauled in about half of them.  Now some of that isn't his fault - bad throws from Josh.  But some of it is.

 

 

11 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I’ll miss McKenzie. He was a fun player and had some fun plays. But he also wasn’t consistent enough, and I don’t think the coaching staff really liked or trusted him anyway.

 

McKenzie and Davis both got promotions last year to bigger roles in the offense, and I would say both pretty much failed. Now McKenzie is gone, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bills went WR in the first round or traded for someone like Jeudy to bump Davis down the depth chart.

 

I’m not impressed by Davis’ volume stats. He got 25% of his stats on 3 catches vs the Steelers, in a game we would have won if he wasn’t playing anyway.

 

That's actually a good question.  I have the impression that McDermott and Dorsey respected him.  McDermott called him "mentally tough" in one interview.  That's high praise from McDermott.  Dorsey sounded very sincere in one interview defending McKenzie, saying "he has done everything we have asked him to do".

 

I think the more relevant trust issue is that Josh didn't trust him against zone coverage, for whatever reason.  I think a lot of that is on McKenzie.  I think he's a trash-talking Motor Mouth, and that isn't very inviting for the team's big star to sit down with and watch extra film and talk about how they're going to attack different coverages.

[papazoid]

59 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I’ll miss McKenzie. He was a fun player and had some fun plays. But he also wasn’t consistent enough, and I don’t think the coaching staff really liked or trusted him anyway.

 

McKenzie and Davis both got promotions last year to bigger roles in the offense, and I would say both pretty much failed. Now McKenzie is gone, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bills went WR in the first round or traded for someone like Jeudy to bump Davis down the depth chart.

 

I’m not impressed by Davis’ volume stats. He got 25% of his stats on 3 catches vs the Steelers, in a game we would have won if he wasn’t playing anyway.

 

 

boom.....we need better than mckenzie and davis

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

 

 

boom.....we need better than mckenzie and davis

 

I agree with you…but Man, in his presser, Beane sure talked like he’s got Gabe Davis second contract all drafted and ready to sign and is planning the money moves to make it work.  He talked like next year’s WR lineup is Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Harty.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I'm 90% sure you're going to do everything in your power to NOT answer this

 

Below i've circled games that are 100% unacceptable from a #2 WR.

There are 9 of his 15 games played circled

7 of the 9 have no TD's

 

Which of these are acceptable to you for a WR2 to have?

 

 

Did you factor in TE Dawson Knox, Isiah Mckenzie, the RB's? What did they all do in those games? Contrary to what fans think there are a bunch of weapons at Allens disposal. The good thing about this offense (especially if we assemble a solid OL) is that we can utilize all different players, if we start doing more RB screens, designed TE screens etc. this team would be lethal which is why I'm really hoping to see serious growth with OC Ken Dorsey, just throwing bombs every other play is not going to end well. I agree that the drops need to get cleared up but Davis is fine and should improve upon those numbers but we have enough weapons to spread the ball around if Dorsey is creative enough.

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I agree with you…but Man, in his presser, Beane sure talked like he’s got Gabe Davis second contract all drafted and ready to sign and is planning the money moves to make it work.  He talked like next year’s WR lineup is Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Harty.

 

Agreed. Everyone on this board wants to write off Gabe Davis and Ed Oliver but Brandon Beane sounds like both are in his plans for years to come. And honestly - they should be.

 

In today's NFL you need 3 solid outside WR's to compete at the top, not just 2. I'm agreeable to the fact that we need another outside weapon. But that's to compliment Diggs and Davis, offer rotation, and depth. Not to supplant Gabe completely.

Edited March 18, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Last I checked Yards and TDs won football games.

Davis does it in spades, but you don't like 'how he did it.'

 

Let's go with 'lowering the standards'.

 

Let's look at WRs with 700 yards receiving and 5 TDs.

Could you imagine the blow up if WR2 got 'only' 700 yards and 5 TD 🤣???

TSW would melt down!

 

No WR#2 worth his salt would have less than 700 yards and 5 TDs according to TSW....

 

But hey don't let facts mess with the mob....

Only 27 WR IN THE NFL in 2022 had more than 700 yards and 5 TDs in 2022.

 

Not even 1 per team 🤣

 

Gabe Davis was 836 / 7 as a #2 just to refresh the memory.....

but half of TSW thinks Davis sucks 🤣🤣🤣

 

Keep lowering those standards.

Maybe you can get a guy who has 1k yards and 4 TDs! 🤣🤣

or 500 yards and 8 TDs 🤣🤣

 

Heck.... Leaonard Fournette has an 80% catch rate

let's make him WR #2!!! 🤣🤣🤣

 

Honestly, this board is great.... Never refuses to amaze me and make me laugh.....

thanks guys. You are the best... 🤣🤣

The biggest problem the people have with Gabe Davis is that his progress has not been linear

 

The year before last, he was on a trajectory to be a 1a type of receiver

 

He dipped a little bit mostly because of drops

 

I fully expect him to have an excellent year. It’s a contract year. The biggest problem we will have with him is the same problem we have with all players in this position they will play their way out of what we will be able to afford maybe