Myth Busters: The Bills Overpay / Roster Too Many Special Teamers

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Neal is also a primary depth piece at nickel corner (which is pretty important in our defense), so i think thats part of his pay.  I'd say Matakevich and Jones are straight up teamers since they are last off of the bench.  I saw matakevich resigned, i hope for less money.  

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Both those guys (Hines & Kumerow) salaries are likely slotted in the STs budget, it matters not if they played a little or a lot, it’s still in the  STs  budget, and there for they count in the total cost of the Bills STs expenditures. Count it all or it is just cherry-picking. 

 

The Bills like Kumerow as a receiver. Much more than I do. I think they count him as their 3rd outside receiver. One of your receivers has to play on teams if you carry 6. If it wasn't Kumerow it would be whoever replaced him. You carry 6 receivers, one of them is gonna play a lot on teams.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills like Kumerow as a receiver. Much more than I do. I think they count him as their 3rd outside receiver. One of your receivers has to play on teams if you carry 6. If it wasn't Kumerow it would be whoever replaced him. You carry 6 receivers, one of them is gonna play a lot on teams.

Agreed but many teams carry 6 WR because one of them is your return guy/gadget player and you carry one less RB.  Bills have done this in the past. If your primary returner is a RB and you have 4 RB's including Jones, then they only need 5 WR.  That said Kumerow was used in the short yardage packages as a big blocker WR which he was decent at.  Last year Davis primarily played that role after Kumerow was hurt.  

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Special Teams doesn't absolutely doesn't matter?  The 2010 Chargers had the leagues #1 offense and #1 defense but the 32nd ranked ST.

I'm going to let you take a guess on what was the reason they didn't make the playoffs....

 

It's not about just the average, it's the context.  Late in a game where it's within a 3 point game, that's where special teams can matter a lot.  

 

Kickers matter.  Gunners do not. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Agreed but many teams carry 6 WR because one of them is your return guy/gadget player and you carry one less RB.  Bills have done this in the past. If your primary returner is a RB and you have 4 RB's including Jones, then they only need 5 WR.  That said Kumerow was used in the short yardage packages as a big blocker WR which he was decent at.  Last year Davis primarily played that role after Kumerow was hurt.  

 

I agree with that, but at the same time its not like the Bills had a load of other offensive players banging down the door for roster spots. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Matakevich according to an article today has had 19 ST tackles in two seasons.  That is barely more than one every other game.  I know he does other things. But there is no way he is worth the money he is getting paid. Hopefully he took a healthy pay cut to stay.  He is a complete liability at LB even worse than Bernard.   

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

 Kickers matter.  Gunners do not. 

 

How did the Chargers not make the playoffs in 2010 with the #1 offense and #1 defense and with an All Pro Kicker (Nate Kaeding) then?

 

https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2021/10/24/new-york-jets-robert-saleh-justin-hardee-special-teams-gunners/

 

“That is a check your manhood, it’s a mindset, it is an absolute dogfight when you’re a gunner and you have to beat a one-on-one or a double team,” Saleh said Friday. “It’s a war on the edges and those guys are responsible for field position, flipping fields. They can win a lot of games without it ever coming to attention.

“Hardee is probably one of the best in football at that position. On top of it, his leadership skills, his deliberateness, his veteran presence, he’s everything that you would want out of a football player from a character standpoint. As a gunner, which is a very underrated position, and one of my favorites because it represents manhood, he’s pretty darn good at it.”

10 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Matakevich according to an article today has had 19 ST tackles in two seasons.  That is barely more than one every other game.  I know he does other things. But there is no way he is worth the money he is getting paid. Hopefully he took a healthy pay cut to stay.  He is a complete liability at LB even worse than Bernard.   

 

You don't believe in context and just box score scout.

 

Teams can save millions by just throwing some low level draft pick to be gunners and replace them every year with new rookies.  Why don't teams do that?  Why are teams continually throwing money at this position if it's completely meaningless?

Edited March 14, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[nedboy7]

So are we arguing that the 3 million we supposedly overspent on special teams is the reason we dont win SBs?

[Don Otreply]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills like Kumerow as a receiver. Much more than I do. I think they count him as their 3rd outside receiver. One of your receivers has to play on teams if you carry 6. If it wasn't Kumerow it would be whoever replaced him. You carry 6 receivers, one of them is gonna play a lot on teams.

No problem with that, but…, no reason to have guys on special teams that don’t have the capacity to contribute to the the O or D in a meaningful way, being that on this team STs is only fifteen ish percent of meaningful snaps, imo, there is little reason (3) to have STs only roster spots, and those are taken up by K, P,& LS er.

[Rebel101]

14 hours ago, MJS said:

I see this thrown around a lot about the Bills, that they pay their special teamers the most in the league, and especially that they roster too many primary special teams players. They claim that other teams only roster 2 or 3, while the BIlls roster 4 or 5. So, I ran the numbers, because I really didn't know if that was true.

 

For this exercise, I looked at snap percentages for each team. I considered a primary special teamer as a player who played approximately 30% or more of the total special teams snaps for the team and who had less than 15% total snaps for either offense or defense. I also removed Kickers, Punters, and Long Snappers, because every team needs those specialists and their roster spots are guaranteed. I then recorded the 2022 cap hit for each of those players (from overthecap.com) to see how teams compared in both the number of primary special teamers and the cap hits associated with them. Here are the results for the Bills:

 

 

For the league:

 

Findings:

- There were 16 teams who rostered more primary special teams players than the Bills. This includes good teams like the Bengals, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, and Chargers, plus our divisional opponents in the Jets and Dolphins. The average was 5.5 players, so the Bills were just below average in the number of these types of players rostered (Myth Busted!)

- Five teams spend more than the Bills in total for these players: Steelers, Texans, Jaguars, Bengals, and Vikings.

- The Bills ranked 3rd in the cap hit per player for these primary special teams players at $1.68 million. The Steelers and Texans pay more per player. (Myth Kinda Busted. They pay their teamers well, just not the most in the league)

 

Here are the top cap hits in the league for primary special teamers in 2022. The Bills had 2 in the top 15. The Taxans and Steelers also had multiple:

 

 

In conclusion: the Bills do not roster too many primary special teams players. In fact, many teams roster more. The Bills are on the lower end. But, the Bills DO pay their special teamers well, with two teamers in the top 15 of the league (in 2022, at least). And the results can be seen in the Bills fielding one of the best, or the best, special teams units in the league. Joe Marino from Locked on Bills did an analysis awhile back looking at super bowl winning teams and found that most of them had good special teams units. There were a few outliers, but having a top 5 special teams unit is one of those marks of a good team, and even a super bowl contender.

 

I’d rather have a hungry rookie trying to earn a spot on special teams who can fill in on defense cause Neal cam Lewis and Tyler add no value are special teams alone isn’t great and the time they see on defense hurts this team 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

No problem with that, but…, no reason to have guys on special teams that don’t have the capacity to contribute to the the O or D in a meaningful way, being that on this team STs is only fifteen ish percent of meaningful snaps, imo, there is little reason (3) to have STs only roster spots, and those are taken up by K, P,& LS er.

 

I diagree. We are not losing anything by having a Tyler Matakevich and a Taiwan Jones. We just lose camp fodder guys that fans fall in love with to get two guys who are actually really good at their roles.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I diagree. We are not losing anything by having a Tyler Matakevich and a Taiwan Jones. We just lose camp fodder guys that fans fall in love with to get two guys who are actually really good at their roles.

I agree, but folks would complain less about dedicated special team players -- would hardly notice it, really -- if the quality of the offensive weapons was more robust. 

[Don Otreply]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I diagree. We are not losing anything by having a Tyler Matakevich and a Taiwan Jones. We just lose camp fodder guys that fans fall in love with to get two guys who are actually really good at their roles.

I understand your argument “Gunner” , but neither of those guys is particularly good within there D or O assignments, I suspect we can do better, and have two useful BUs when they are called upon, at present this is not the case. No-one wants to see TJ taking handoffs from Josh, again, we can do better.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

I understand your argument “Gunner” , but neither of those guys is particularly good within there D or O assignments, I suspect we can do better, and have two useful BUs when they are called upon, at present this is not the case. No-one wants to see TJ taking handoffs from Josh, again, we can do better.

 

Jones doesn't take handoffs from Josh. He also basically signs a contract that is pretty much vet minimum year on year. So unless you can find a rookie gunner as good as Jones you are losing nothing having him on the 53. At least on Matakevich you can argue about the money. If we had a promising young linebacker we were considering cutting to keep Matakevich then I might be in favour of getting rid.

[Don Otreply]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Jones doesn't take handoffs from Josh. He also basically signs a contract that is pretty much vet minimum year on year. So unless you can find a rookie gunner as good as Jones you are losing nothing having him on the 53. At least on Matakevich you can argue about the money. If we had a promising young linebacker we were considering cutting to keep Matakevich then I might be in favour of getting rid.

I think we are not completely of different minds on this topic, but, we can do better, that LBer is out there. I’m not looking for miracles, just an objective consideration of each players actual value, regardless of how much a guy is liked as a person by his teammates or the coaching staff. This football thing when it comes down to it is pretty cut throat, no bringing knives to the gun fight, as the saying goes.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I think we are not completely of different minds on this topic, but, we can do better, that LBer is out there. I’m not looking for miracles, just an objective consideration of each players actual value, regardless of how much a guy is liked as a person by his teammates or the coaching staff. This football thing when it comes down to it is pretty cut throat, no bringing knives to the gun fight, as the saying goes.

 

But I am not getting rid of Matakevich for a journeyman who is 20% better on defense but 20% worse on STs because as the bottom of your LB depth chart you are going to play teams more than you play D. It is a different case if we, for example, drafted a day 3 guy with some promise and you are genuinely between the two.

[Don Otreply]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But I am not getting rid of Matakevich for a journeyman who is 20% better on defense but 20% worse on STs because as the bottom of your LB depth chart you are going to play teams more than you play D. It is a different case if we, for example, drafted a day 3 guy with some promise and you are genuinely between the two.

I am if that LB is just as good on STs and twenty percent better on defense…, that guy is out there.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

How did the Chargers not make the playoffs in 2010 with the #1 offense and #1 defense and with an All Pro Kicker (Nate Kaeding) then?

 

https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2021/10/24/new-york-jets-robert-saleh-justin-hardee-special-teams-gunners/

 

“That is a check your manhood, it’s a mindset, it is an absolute dogfight when you’re a gunner and you have to beat a one-on-one or a double team,” Saleh said Friday. “It’s a war on the edges and those guys are responsible for field position, flipping fields. They can win a lot of games without it ever coming to attention.

“Hardee is probably one of the best in football at that position. On top of it, his leadership skills, his deliberateness, his veteran presence, he’s everything that you would want out of a football player from a character standpoint. As a gunner, which is a very underrated position, and one of my favorites because it represents manhood, he’s pretty darn good at it.”

 

You don't believe in context and just box score scout.

 

Teams can save millions by just throwing some low level draft pick to be gunners and replace them every year with new rookies.  Why don't teams do that?  Why are teams continually throwing money at this position if it's completely meaningless?

Why do teams draft Zach Wilson? These people are not geniuses. In many cases they just follow the herd mentality of coaching. We've heard it since we were kids that special teams were important. People thought the earth was flat.  They were wrong and they are wrong about special teams. 

Maybe back in the day where games were low scoring nad field position mattered. It just doesn't matter anymore. Offenses move between the twenties at will against even the best defenses. Did you see what KC did to the Eagles? You think Andy Reid cares about special teams? Name anyone on their team that plays special teams besides the kicker. 

Lastly we were number one in special teams by whatever stat they measure, and the didn't make it out of the divisional round.  

As others have pointed out, Brady and the Pats success skews the data on importance of special teams. The year he got hurt they didn't make the playoffs and my guess is they didn't pay any less attention to special teams. 

 

The game has changed and guys like McDermott don't adjust fast enough. He has adjusted in terms of going for it on 4th down situations. He hasn't evolved in terms of roster makeup. 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I am if that LB is just as good on STs and twenty percent better on defense…, that guy is out there.

 

A guy "just as good on STs"?? That will be a hard find. Matakevich is one of the best.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Didn’t Tyler M get $2.5M ? 
 

That seems high for 9.5 tackles/year as a Special Teams demon. 

[MJS]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Wait what. We are top 6 in spending for STers and top 3 in cap hit but the Bills don’t spend too much on ST?

 

Great analysis. Not sure I agree with your conclusion.

Is your friend Bobby Petrone.

I was specifically looking at whether or not the Bills spend the most in the league on primary special teams contributors, which is the claim I see from time to time.

 

Whether or not we spend too much is up for debate. The Bills don't spend the most, but they spend a lot. They have good results in ranking from that spending, but perhaps we don't need to be THE best special teams unit in the NFL. Maybe we can just settle for top 10 and reallocate some of those resources elsewhere. I'm all for that. But I do understand the approach to wanting dominant special teams. There is real value there.

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Actions speak louder and the Giants gave him a 1 year/$875,000 contract extension.  That's not a contract you offer someone you believe is going to be an integral part of your offense.  

Nope. That is close to a minimum salary.