Myth Busters: The Bills Overpay / Roster Too Many Special Teamers

[ngbills]

I think good ST statistics can often be good coaching more than spending money. That is why you may see Super Bowl winners with good special team stats. 

[Saxum]

52 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

For example, cutting Isaiah Hodgins while keeping Kumerow because of special teams seems foolish.  That said, keeping Taiwan Jones year after year for only special teams seems more foolish.

 

Jake Kumerow was starting over Isaiah Hodgins on offense before he was injured.

He also had a lot of snaps previous year and Hodgins had a few snaps in one game.

 

Bills also elevated other WRs on Practice Squad over him.

When he was active he did not  do much and so he was let go.

 

He did better on Jiants squad but competition was much less.

 

New name Jiantsflyer12?

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Jake Kumerow was starting over Isaiah Hodgins on offense before he was injured.

He also had a lot of snaps previous year and Hodgins had a few snaps in one game.

 

Bills also elevated other WRs on Practice Squad over him.

When he was active he did not  do much and so he was let go.

 

He did better on Jiants squad but competition was much less.

 

New name Jiantsflyer12?

 

Yep. Isaiah Hodgins was not cut to keep a special teamer. He was cut because the Bills valued Jake Kumerow over him as a wide receiver. Whether that was smart is a different question (and sure Kumerow played some teams when healthy) but the Bills went into last season with Kumerow as their #3 outside receiver and used him a fair amount in personnel packages until he got hurt. 

 

I remember last offseason telling this board over and over that the Bills were telling you with their actions and their pre-season usage that Kumerow was 3rd on their depth chart outside. People were arguing until they were blue in the face that it wasn't so and that Shakir would be the third guy up or that Hodgins was gonna make the roster because they wanted it to be so. But the Bills valued Kumerow. They cut Hodgins because they thought Jake Kumerow was better. That's it.

[MJS]

54 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Kumerow played in six games and absolutely was part of the special teams roster of players at the start of the season. Excluding him just helps you make your argument but doesn't pass the reality test of the percent of salary cap devoted to special teams players.

I agreed on McKenzie. 

Hines played in 9 games and had 6 rushes and 5 catches, compared to a total 35 kick returns that exclude fair catches.  He was used on offense but his primary impact was as a return man. 

I'm not going to consider nuances like that because I can't compare that for the entire league. I don't know all 32 teams well enough and it would take me too long to research specific cases like that. It has nothing to do with my own arguments one way or the other.

 

All that stuff evens out. Other teams have situations like that as well.

[MJS]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. Isaiah Hodgins was not cut to keep a special teamer. He was cut because the Bills valued Jake Kumerow over him as a wide receiver. Whether that was smart is a different question (and sure Kumerow played some teams when healthy) but the Bills went into last season with Kumerow as their #3 outside receiver and used him a fair amount in personnel packages until he got hurt. 

 

I remember last offseason telling this board over and over that the Bills were telling you with their actions and their pre-season usage that Kumerow was 3rd on their depth chart outside. People were arguing until they were blue in the face that it wasn't so and that Shakir would be the third guy up or that Hodgins was gonna make the roster because they wanted it to be so. But the Bills valued Kumerow. They cut Hodgins because they thought Jake Kumerow was better. That's it.

All this Hodgins talk is crazy, in my opinion. He is a late round pick who went to a team with no other option at receiver and got some targets. To his credit, he did a good job with those targets.

 

This is Robert Foster 2.0. The Giants are going to look to upgrade at WR this year. Hodgins is not going to be featured.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

I see this thrown around a lot about the Bills, that they pay their special teamers the most in the league, and especially that they roster too many primary special teams players. They claim that other teams only roster 2 or 3, while the BIlls roster 4 or 5. So, I ran the numbers, because I really didn't know if that was true.

 

For this exercise, I looked at snap percentages for each team. I considered a primary special teamer as a player who played approximately 30% or more of the total special teams snaps for the team and who had less than 15% total snaps for either offense or defense. I also removed Kickers, Punters, and Long Snappers, because every team needs those specialists and their roster spots are guaranteed. I then recorded the 2022 cap hit for each of those players (from overthecap.com) to see how teams compared in both the number of primary special teamers and the cap hits associated with them. Here are the results for the Bills:

 

 

For the league:

 

Findings:

- There were 16 teams who rostered more primary special teams players than the Bills. This includes good teams like the Bengals, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, and Chargers, plus our divisional opponents in the Jets and Dolphins. The average was 5.5 players, so the Bills were just below average in the number of these types of players rostered (Myth Busted!)

- Five teams spend more than the Bills in total for these players: Steelers, Texans, Jaguars, Bengals, and Vikings.

- The Bills ranked 3rd in the cap hit per player for these primary special teams players at $1.68 million. The Steelers and Texans pay more per player. (Myth Kinda Busted. They pay their teamers well, just not the most in the league)

 

Here are the top cap hits in the league for primary special teamers in 2022. The Bills had 2 in the top 15. The Taxans and Steelers also had multiple:

 

 

In conclusion: the Bills do not roster too many primary special teams players. In fact, many teams roster more. The Bills are on the lower end. But, the Bills DO pay their special teamers well, with two teamers in the top 15 of the league (in 2022, at least). And the results can be seen in the Bills fielding one of the best, or the best, special teams units in the league. Joe Marino from Locked on Bills did an analysis awhile back looking at super bowl winning teams and found that most of them had good special teams units. There were a few outliers, but having a top 5 special teams unit is one of those marks of a good team, and even a super bowl contender.

 

You did nice work here!! I was coming here to complain about it but your research was great. The only thing that I’ll push back on is that it depends on the makeup of your roster. When you’re paying your QB $43M you should “find” some money from ST only players. The Bills could have found $5M(ish) of cap space if they replaced guys like Matakevich, Neal and Jones with rookie contracts.

 

One of my good friends was a longtime STer with the Pats. He was a backup LB but primarily played speci teams. As his career went on it became harder and harder for him to stick on the roster because he was making more. He had numerous undocumented concussions because he was fearful that an injury would cost his spot to someone cheaper. He eventually got cut after receiving a 4 game suspension for adderall (which he took to drive across country to his new team). He was replaced by a rookie.

[BillsFan130]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I feel like you’re using extremes to try to make your argument
 

Those particular, QBs know it’s not gonna make that much of a difference

 

But the season is more than just facing the very best, QBs that’s why you play 16 games during the regular season in the best records go to the playoffs

 

You’re doing everything you can to build a team that is going to win the most games winning field position is a part of that covering kicks is a part of that being able to run the ball back on your own special teams returns is a part of that

I guess it goes back to the same argument with Leslie Frazier.

 

Great regular season coach, but what does it matter if he can’t get it done in the playoffs?

 

Same line of thinking with special teams. Bills aren’t going to the Super Bowl because they pinned Patrick Mahomes to the 17 yard line opposed to the 25, nor does it matter  if Josh starts from the 17 opposed to the 25

Edited March 14, 2023 by BillsFan130

[John from Riverside]

16 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I guess it goes back to the same argument with Leslie Frazier.

 

Great regular season coach, but what does it matter if he can’t get it done in the playoffs?

 

Same line of thinking with special teams. Bills aren’t going to the Super Bowl because they pinned Patrick Mahomes to the 17 yard line opposed to the 25, nor does it matter  if Josh starts from the 17 opposed to the 25

It’s a circular argument
You have to get to the playoffs in order for this to even be an issue

[Matt_In_NH]

But we can have 11 more WR's who I have had in fantasy football.  Those are all Josh Allen "weapons"!!!!!!!!

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It’s a circular argument
You have to get to the playoffs in order for this to even be an issue

That’s fair but once again… bills are going to the playoffs because of Josh Allen. Not their special teams lol.

 

We had the best punter for 15 years and it meant nothing 

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

I see this thrown around a lot about the Bills, that they pay their special teamers the most in the league, and especially that they roster too many primary special teams players. They claim that other teams only roster 2 or 3, while the BIlls roster 4 or 5. So, I ran the numbers, because I really didn't know if that was true.

 

For this exercise, I looked at snap percentages for each team. I considered a primary special teamer as a player who played approximately 30% or more of the total special teams snaps for the team and who had less than 15% total snaps for either offense or defense. I also removed Kickers, Punters, and Long Snappers, because every team needs those specialists and their roster spots are guaranteed. I then recorded the 2022 cap hit for each of those players (from overthecap.com) to see how teams compared in both the number of primary special teamers and the cap hits associated with them. Here are the results for the Bills:

 

 

For the league:

 

Findings:

- There were 16 teams who rostered more primary special teams players than the Bills. This includes good teams like the Bengals, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, and Chargers, plus our divisional opponents in the Jets and Dolphins. The average was 5.5 players, so the Bills were just below average in the number of these types of players rostered (Myth Busted!)

- Five teams spend more than the Bills in total for these players: Steelers, Texans, Jaguars, Bengals, and Vikings.

- The Bills ranked 3rd in the cap hit per player for these primary special teams players at $1.68 million. The Steelers and Texans pay more per player. (Myth Kinda Busted. They pay their teamers well, just not the most in the league)

 

Here are the top cap hits in the league for primary special teamers in 2022. The Bills had 2 in the top 15. The Taxans and Steelers also had multiple:

 

 

In conclusion: the Bills do not roster too many primary special teams players. In fact, many teams roster more. The Bills are on the lower end. But, the Bills DO pay their special teamers well, with two teamers in the top 15 of the league (in 2022, at least). And the results can be seen in the Bills fielding one of the best, or the best, special teams units in the league. Joe Marino from Locked on Bills did an analysis awhile back looking at super bowl winning teams and found that most of them had good special teams units. There were a few outliers, but having a top 5 special teams unit is one of those marks of a good team, and even a super bowl contender.

 

Wait what. We are top 6 in spending for STers and top 3 in cap hit but the Bills don’t spend too much on ST?

 

Great analysis. Not sure I agree with your conclusion.

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You did nice work here!! I was coming here to complain about it but your research was great. The only thing that I’ll push back on is that it depends on the makeup of your roster. When you’re paying your QB $43M you should “find” some money from ST only players. The Bills could have found $5M(ish) of cap space if they replaced guys like Matakevich, Neal and Jones with rookie contracts.

 

One of my good friends was a longtime STer with the Pats. He was a backup LB but primarily played speci teams. As his career went on it became harder and harder for him to stick on the roster because he was making more. He had numerous undocumented concussions because he was fearful that an injury would cost his spot to someone cheaper. He eventually got cut after receiving a 4 game suspension for adderall (which he took to drive across country to his new team). He was replaced by a rookie.

Is your friend Bobby Petrone.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Wait what. We are top 6 in spending for STers and top 3 in cap hit but the Bills don’t spend too much on ST?

 

Great analysis. Not sure I agree with your conclusion.

Is your friend Bobby Petrone.

He is not

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He is not

damn, he was the right age I feel like.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Spending roster spots, and big $$$ on special teams is not a wise allocation of resources in the long run.  Having great special teams is not, nor will be the reason any team makes a deep playoff run.  
 

For example, cutting Isaiah Hodgins while keeping Kumerow because of special teams seems foolish.  That said, keeping Taiwan Jones year after year for only special teams seems more foolish.

 

Drafting a punter in any round is bad allocation of picks.  Extending a punter for 3 years 7.5 million when you could get one that would be just as good for near league minimum.

 

Any of this end of the world?  No.  But in a league that operates so close to the margins it seems to be a bad strategy if at the end of the day it doesn’t really matter that much to winning a Super Bowl.

 

The people actually working for NFL teams seem to disagree.

 

The one player on the Bills I'd agree on is in keeping Taiwan Jones.  He is the one player I'd agree is a waste of roster spot.  Rest of them have no problem with including Kumarow.

[offyourocker]

This is one of the best example of a good narrative completely changing what the data tells you

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Nope it absolutely doesn't matter. Its old school coaching just like benching a RB for half a season for a fumble. 

The difference between the best and worst punt and kick return teams is what 5 yards? Who cares? Its meaningless. Its less than one average QB attempt or one just above average run. 

 

Special Teams doesn't absolutely doesn't matter?  The 2010 Chargers had the leagues #1 offense and #1 defense but the 32nd ranked ST.

I'm going to let you take a guess on what was the reason they didn't make the playoffs....

 

It's not about just the average, it's the context.  Late in a game where it's within a 3 point game, that's where special teams can matter a lot.  

 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

All this Hodgins talk is crazy, in my opinion. He is a late round pick who went to a team with no other option at receiver and got some targets. To his credit, he did a good job with those targets.

 

This is Robert Foster 2.0. The Giants are going to look to upgrade at WR this year. Hodgins is not going to be featured.

 

Actions speak louder and the Giants gave him a 1 year/$875,000 contract extension.  That's not a contract you offer someone you believe is going to be an integral part of your offense.  

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

damn, he was the right age I feel like.

Eric Alexander

 

Lol, he played for Saban in college and BB in the NFL. He then went to Rob Ryan 😂😂😂. He said it was SO different.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Kirby Jackson

[Don Otreply]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Nope. I used the data and only the data. Kumerow was hurt so he doesn't factor in with the overall snaps. Hines was only at 22% of special teams snaps, so he doesn't make the cut either.

 

McKenzie was barely used on special teams with only 6.83% of special teams snaps. He played over 50% of offensive snaps.

 

But every team has situations like that as well.

 

Feel free to go do your own analysis where you specifically identify kick returners and injured special teamers for each team. I'd be interested in seeing that, but I'm not sure how you would do that.

Both those guys (Hines & Kumerow) salaries are likely slotted in the STs budget, it matters not if they played a little or a lot, it’s still in the  STs  budget, and there for they count in the total cost of the Bills STs expenditures. Count it all or it is just cherry-picking. 

[Niagara Dude]

29 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Both those guys (Hines & Kumerow) salaries are likely slotted in the STs budget, it matters not if they played a little or a lot, it’s still in the  STs  budget, and there for they count in the total cost of the Bills STs expenditures. Count it all or it is just cherry-picking. 

I have no problem paying special teams players that can also give you some plays on defence or offence.  If not your better off signing undrafted free agents on min deals because you affecting your cap.