Myth Busters: The Bills Overpay / Roster Too Many Special Teamers

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, DieHardBillsFan said:

How many team pay an exclusive long snapper? Pretty sure that is low. Add that money and Bills pay the most and have more than avg ST players.

Every single team pays an exclusive long snapper. Every single one.

[uticaclub]

Thanks for the work and breakdown! One thing the numbers dont include is opportunity cost of drafting a position player in the 3rd round of 2022 instead of a special teamer or releasing Hodgins because Kumerow plays ST. Again, thanks for the leg, its great

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 minutes ago, DieHardBillsFan said:

How many team pay an exclusive long snapper? Pretty sure that is low. Add that money and Bills pay the most and have more than avg ST players.

Huh? Every team has an exclusive long snapper.

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Actually the Bengals spent more money and 49er's almost as much as the Bills.  So actually it's more a case of those teams making bad player or coaching choices as the money hasn't helped them.

 

KC certainly has spent very little, but now down to only two outliers so have to question if more to the story with them.

 

There's also many teams with bad records AND bad ST rankings so that would just as easily say it's a good investment; NO, Indy, Tenn, Denver,

This is also only one season of data. I bet Andy Reid has historically invested more in special teams. They went through some changes last year.

 

Bill Belichick historically invests a lot in special teams as well, but he was low in 2022. A lot of changes with the Patriots lately.

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

Exactly.  Bills used to have players who made significant difference in games.  Steve Tasker and Pike were a pair who teams had to prepare for . Pike often got three players blocking him. Teams had whole game plans to neutralize Tasker resorting him into doing things like running out of bounds and back in to get past blockers who were preventing him from getting to kick returner and he managed to do it anyways.  

 

We had some really good special teams during drought (i.e. Moorman) but usually special teams are not the difference between playoffs or not unless you are on the cusp of playoffs.

That was pre-Salary Cap.

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Huh? Every team has an exclusive long snapper.

Yep, all 32

[MJS]

27 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Nice work, but the bigger point is does it matter?  The Bills clearly emphasize special teams, why?
 

Bills and Cowboys only 2 teams in playoffs final 8 teams in the top 10 special teams DOVA, and the Cowboys were 10th.

 

Final 4 teams in playoffs special teams DOVA

 

Eagles - 13th

49ers - 15th

Bengals - 18th

Chiefs - 19th

 

Seems they keep focusing on a bad investment.

This only one year of data, remember. Many superbowl winning teams the past decade have been top 5 in special teams DVOA.

[DieHardBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Huh? Every team has an exclusive long snapper.

I'm not sure how I missed that. Huh...

[Buffalo Super Fan]

Look here is the deal regardless of the Buffalo Bills spin we blew our two year opportunity window and now we will be weaker. The question is how much weaker. Would I be shocked if the Bills are 9-8 or 10-7 and miss the playoffs? No it would be a good wake up call to this Bills fan base that excuses every coaching mistake Sean McDermott makes. Former UB Bulls CB Cam Lewis should have been cut last season with some of the mistake that he made and overpaying a barely used punter is a waste of money. I wouldn’t even carry a punter on the Bills roster Josh Allen is a good athlete let him punt for the money the Bills pay him. Ridiculous a $1 million dollar punter waste of NFL cap space.
 

I can’t wait for the Buffalo Bills to start the season because it’s produce now for Sean McDermott no one else he can blame now Leslie Frazier is gone show time. BSF that is horrible? No it isn’t have standards Buffalo Bills fans for $850 million dollars PSE owes Buffalo Bills fans a Super Bowl championship no excuse. That bum Stan Kronke won a Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams have standards. If I was negotiating that new Bills stadium lease if PSE doesn’t win a Super Bowl in the 30 years time frame they have to pay all the money back you watch how PSE really works to win a Super Bowl for Buffalo along with the NFL owners. I don’t even care if the NFL owners fix it for the Bills to win like the Rams. I don’t care I want to see the Bills win a Super Bowl whatever it takes in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Nice job but you have a few flaws.

For one you left out Kumerow who made the roster primarily as a special teams player. So you instantly go from 5 to 6 players. And don't argue he wasn't a special teams pick. He made the roster and Hodgins didn't because of special teams.

Second you have no kick returner. They used McKenzie and then Hines. Its fair not to include McKenzie but Hines was not used that much on offense. Many teams have primary return guys. 

So when you compare Bills to other teams, the Bills have at least one extra roster spot used for gunners/blockers on teams. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

35 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Nice work, but the bigger point is does it matter?  The Bills clearly emphasize special teams, why?
 

Bills and Cowboys only 2 teams in playoffs final 8 teams in the top 10 special teams DOVA, and the Cowboys were 10th.

 

Final 4 teams in playoffs special teams DOVA

 

Eagles - 13th

49ers - 15th

Bengals - 18th

Chiefs - 19th

 

Seems they keep focusing on a bad investment.

Nope it absolutely doesn't matter. Its old school coaching just like benching a RB for half a season for a fumble. 

The difference between the best and worst punt and kick return teams is what 5 yards? Who cares? Its meaningless. Its less than one average QB attempt or one just above average run. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

Exactly.  Bills used to have players who made significant difference in games.  Steve Tasker and Pike were a pair who teams had to prepare for . Pike often got three players blocking him. Teams had whole game plans to neutralize Tasker resorting him into doing things like running out of bounds and back in to get past blockers who were preventing him from getting to kick returner and he managed to do it anyways.  

 

We had some really good special teams during drought (i.e. Moorman) but usually special teams are not the difference between playoffs or not unless you are on the cusp of playoffs.

Tasker running OOB intentionally is illegal now. And so are the blocking rules used back in the 1990s. And they moved the tee back to the 35 to deemphasive the KO. 

Times have changed. 

Pass the ball, catch the ball, rush the passer, and make clutch kicks. That is all that matters.

[MJS]

27 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Nice job but you have a few flaws.

For one you left out Kumerow who made the roster primarily as a special teams player. So you instantly go from 5 to 6 players. And don't argue he wasn't a special teams pick. He made the roster and Hodgins didn't because of special teams.

Second you have no kick returner. They used McKenzie and then Hines. Its fair not to include McKenzie but Hines was not used that much on offense. Many teams have primary return guys. 

So when you compare Bills to other teams, the Bills have at least one extra roster spot used for gunners/blockers on teams. 

Nope. I used the data and only the data. Kumerow was hurt so he doesn't factor in with the overall snaps. Hines was only at 22% of special teams snaps, so he doesn't make the cut either.

 

McKenzie was barely used on special teams with only 6.83% of special teams snaps. He played over 50% of offensive snaps.

 

But every team has situations like that as well.

 

Feel free to go do your own analysis where you specifically identify kick returners and injured special teamers for each team. I'd be interested in seeing that, but I'm not sure how you would do that.

[Billsflyer12]

32 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Actually the Bengals spent more money and 49er's almost as much as the Bills.  So actually it's more a case of those teams making bad player or coaching choices as the money hasn't helped them.

 

KC certainly has spent very little, but now down to only two outliers so have to question if more to the story with them.

 

There's also many teams with bad records AND bad ST rankings so that would just as easily say it's a good investment; NO, Indy, Tenn, Denver,

Spending roster spots, and big $$$ on special teams is not a wise allocation of resources in the long run.  Having great special teams is not, nor will be the reason any team makes a deep playoff run.  
 

For example, cutting Isaiah Hodgins while keeping Kumerow because of special teams seems foolish.  That said, keeping Taiwan Jones year after year for only special teams seems more foolish.

 

Drafting a punter in any round is bad allocation of picks.  Extending a punter for 3 years 7.5 million when you could get one that would be just as good for near league minimum.

 

Any of this end of the world?  No.  But in a league that operates so close to the margins it seems to be a bad strategy if at the end of the day it doesn’t really matter that much to winning a Super Bowl.

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, MJS said:

Nope. I used the data and only the data. Kumerow was hurt so he doesn't factor in with the overall snaps. Hines was only at 22% of special teams snaps, so he doesn't make the cut either.

 

McKenzie was barely used on special teams with only 6.83% of special teams snaps. He played over 50% of offensive snaps.

 

But every team has situations like that as well.

 

Feel free to go do your own analysis where you specifically identify kick returners and injured special teamers for each team. I'd be interested in seeing that, but I'm not sure how you would do that.

 

Good thread and great info @MJS.  I too was going to bring up the Kumerow thing.  I am not an anti-STer.  I do think it will be pared back some

this year.  Lots against the Dirty Red re-sign, but not me.  I also think Siran Neal will not make the 53 this year.  Zayne Anderson will likely replace him

for cheaper.  Beane will keep a ST core, but I think they will also play a better role as depth.

 

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Good thread and great info @MJS.  I too was going to bring up the Kumerow thing.  I am not an anti-STer.  I do think it will be pared back some

this year.  Lots against the Dirty Red re-sign, but not me.  I also think Siran Neal will not make the 53 this year.  Zayne Anderson will likely replace him

for cheaper.  Beane will keep a ST core, but I think they will also play a better role as depth.

We'll see. If they can get cheaper and still have good special teams, I'm all for that.

 

But I'm not totally sure why some are so focused on how much some of these guys are getting paid. The Bills are spending like 2-3 million more per year than the average team. That's just a drop in the bucket, honestly.

 

I guess it means the team is good. We used to be arguing about starting QB's and #1 WRs! It's gotten all the way down to bottom of the roster special teams contributors. There's always something to nitpick.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

We'll see. If they can get cheaper and still have good special teams, I'm all for that.

 

But I'm not totally sure why some are so focused on how much some of these guys are getting paid. The Bills are spending like 2-3 million more per year than the average team. That's just a drop in the bucket, honestly.

 

I guess it means the team is good. We used to be arguing about starting QB's and #1 WRs! It's gotten all the way down to bottom of the roster special teams contributors. There's always something to nitpick.

 

The money is part of it for me, but the bigger thing is the gameday roster limit.  Typically, it hasn't hurt the Bills, but it did last year.

This thread will be great to look at once the team gets filled out and ready for camp.  Then a comparison can be made if anything

has changed.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

42 minutes ago, MJS said:

Nope. I used the data and only the data. Kumerow was hurt so he doesn't factor in with the overall snaps. Hines was only at 22% of special teams snaps, so he doesn't make the cut either.

 

McKenzie was barely used on special teams with only 6.83% of special teams snaps. He played over 50% of offensive snaps.

 

But every team has situations like that as well.

 

Feel free to go do your own analysis where you specifically identify kick returners and injured special teamers for each team. I'd be interested in seeing that, but I'm not sure how you would do that.

Kumerow played in six games and absolutely was part of the special teams roster of players at the start of the season. Excluding him just helps you make your argument but doesn't pass the reality test of the percent of salary cap devoted to special teams players.

I agreed on McKenzie. 

Hines played in 9 games and had 6 rushes and 5 catches, compared to a total 35 kick returns that exclude fair catches.  He was used on offense but his primary impact was as a return man. 

 

 

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

We nitpick because for a team that’s not starting to have less room for error due to Allen’s cap hit kicking in it doesn’t seem like a smart investment to over do it on special teams contracts.

Not to nitpick 🤪 but Diggs is about 1.5m more than Allen is going to be this season. 2024 is when Allen's cap hit goes to 47m.  He's at 18.6 now and Diggs is 20.2.

 

All and all, you expect that with a franchise QB and I'm sure that will settle down with restructures in the future.

Edited March 14, 2023 by The Wiz

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

This is also only one season of data. I bet Andy Reid has historically invested more in special teams. They went through some changes last year.

 

Bill Belichick historically invests a lot in special teams as well, but he was low in 2022. A lot of changes with the Patriots lately.

 

I did a similar exercise a couple of years back - ironically given your data after Tampa won the Superbowl paying almost nobody on STs - and found the same as you. They were a real outlier in the data and the Bills were top half dozen or so in ST spending, but not out of kilter with the league and the differences were not very big. 

 

EDIT: one further point, I actually think the Bills safety injuries contribute to their cap hit per special teamer number being higher. Jaquan Johnson has been a core STer on this team throughout his rookie deal. He is the personal protector on punt team which is a pretty specialised role. He played 20% on defense in 2022 because of injuries. Bet he hasn't got close to that number his other 3 years. Including him pulls the Bills number down a bit (at least below the Jags). 

Edited March 14, 2023 by GunnerBill

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Do you think it really matters if you make Mahomes/Burrow start at the 12-17 yard line instead of the 20-25 though? I don’t whats so ever.

 

The way I see it: Have a good kicker, and just don’t be “incompetent “ at kick/punt coverage.

 

Even though I disagree with your points, I appreciate the research/time you put into this.

I feel like you’re using extremes to try to make your argument
 

Those particular, QBs know it’s not gonna make that much of a difference

 

But the season is more than just facing the very best, QBs that’s why you play 16 games during the regular season in the best records go to the playoffs

 

You’re doing everything you can to build a team that is going to win the most games winning field position is a part of that covering kicks is a part of that being able to run the ball back on your own special teams returns is a part of that