Drafting Has Been A Problem For Decades

[Teddy KGB]

On 3/8/2023 at 11:06 PM, JoPoy88 said:

lol I love the nuts on you, claiming that you know better than Beane because why? Breece Hall was good for 7 games?  And you “called it”? Honestly the level of delusion is borderline creepy.

Breece hall is amazing.    He just got hurt 

 

you think this guy could do worse then Epanesa, Ford, Badsham, Moss, Ed Oliver etc ? 

[Gunsgoodtime]

25 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Breece hall is amazing.    He just got hurt 

 

you think this guy could do worse then Epanesa, Ford, Badsham, Moss, Ed Oliver etc ? 

That's a pretty sad list of draft capital.  Unfortunately you could go on further

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dawson Knox is without DOUBT a top 10 tight end. The issue is the Bills don't throw him the ***** football. The only two tight ends with more touchdowns than Dawson Knox since the the start of 2021 are Travis Kelce and George Kittle. And they are #1 and #2 in the game right now. I think it is hard to put Knox top 5 based on bare yardage, but he is a better blocker than most of the other guys you are going to think of and the lack of numbers is a result of a lack of targets (he is 16th among tight ends in that time period) despite (per NextGen stats) him being top 5 in separation yardage per route in 2022. I have him back half of the top 10.... but the potential is there for Knox to be a top 5 tight end. 

 

It should be job 1A for Dorsey this offseason. Figure out how to use Dawson Knox. Because that is one spot on the offense where I have zero doubt that coaching is holding back talent. I am at least encouraged by the fact that they figured it out a bit down the stretch. 35% of his seasonal yardage came in the final 4 games and he had a touchdown in each of them.

 

EDIT: I have a hunch Beane and McDermott were frustrated by it too... because there was a period in the middle of the year where they'd target Knox in the first 15 at least a couple of times and then get away from him the rest of the way. And that reeks of the HC insisting all week to the OC "you have to use Knox" so him designing and calling some stuff early. But then he couldn't maintain a rhythm of using him. 

 

Not sure about without a doubt. If he's top 10, he's in the back end like you say. At the end of the day the numbers are what they are. Blame the coaches, blame the QB, blame the player, the numbers are not there. Typically, TD's are not as sustainable year to year as receptions and yardage. But credit to Knox as he did finish the season tied for 5th in the category which isn't too shabby after coming off a season where he tied for 1st. 

 

2022

17th in receptions

17th in targets

14th in yards

Tied 5th/6th TD's

 

If we argue he is not getting enough targets based on being 17th among TE's, the same argument can probably be made for a few of the other Tight Ends who are ranked 11-16th in targets. Receptions and yardage totals would be higher if they were top 10 in targets. 

 

Luckily for Knox, Davis was on the team this year, or he would have been the offenses biggest underperformer based on pre-season expectations. Personally, I think it is a combination of coaching, QB and player himself holding Knox back from reaching the top 10 targets, receptions, and yardage mark. 

 

Right now, Knox is simply a very replaceable piece in this offense. That needs to change when the Bills are now under cap limitations. 

[Teddy KGB]

32 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

That's a pretty sad list of draft capital.  Unfortunately you could go on further

i left out Rousseau because I think he might actually hit.   
 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Not sure about without a doubt. If he's top 10, he's in the back end like you say. At the end of the day the numbers are what they are. Blame the coaches, blame the QB, blame the player, the numbers are not there. Typically, TD's are not as sustainable year to year as receptions and yardage. But credit to Knox as he did finish the season tied for 5th in the category which isn't too shabby after coming off a season where he tied for 1st. 

 

2022

17th in receptions

17th in targets

14th in yards

Tied 5th/6th TD's

 

If we argue he is not getting enough targets based on being 17th among TE's, the same argument can probably be made for a few of the other Tight Ends who are ranked 11-16th in targets. Receptions and yardage totals would be higher if they were top 10 in targets. 

 

Luckily for Knox, Davis was on the team this year, or he would have been the offenses biggest underperformer based on pre-season expectations. Personally, I think it is a combination of coaching, QB and player himself holding Knox back from reaching the top 10 targets, receptions, and yardage mark. 

 

Right now, Knox is simply a very replaceable piece in this offense. That needs to change when the Bills are now under cap limitations. 

 

He can't throw himself the ball. all he can do is get open and catch it and for the last two years he has done that at a high level. He is without a doubt a top 10 tight end - the problem is the Bills don't get him the ball. I don't put an iota of that on Knox, the numbers just don't support it. When Tyler freaking Conklin is being targeted more than Dawson Knox that right there is a game plan issue. Knox is only replaceable because they don't use the tight end. He is the Bills second best offensive player (excluding the QB obviously). Of the other 10 I rank it 1. Diggs, 2. Knox, 3. Dawkins, 4. Morse. 5 through 11 hardly matter. 

 

As for could others in the Knox territory in terms of yardage make the same argument re. targets.... only Hunter Henry is down in the same territory target wise and still producing at as good or better a clip in terms of YPC. Of the others below him the only ones you could really say that of are Rob Gronkowski - a now retired sure fire 1st ballot HoFer and Darren Waller a top 5 tight end who is lower on the list for the last two years due to injury. 

Edited March 10, 2023 by GunnerBill

[folz]

Did a quick Google search to try and find articles ranking the drafting success of NFL teams, just out of curiosity. There was less than I thought there would be (or my search terms maybe weren't catching everything). It's only 4 articles that were somewhat current (linked below), so take it with a grain of salt, but the Bills ranked 3rd, 4th, 12th, and 16th per these articles (the #12 ranking is over the last ten years, the others are more focused to 2017-2021). I think this very small sample size shows at least two things: 

 

1. Ranking draft success is still a very subjective matter. Everyone can agree on the major hits and busts, but everything in between seems to be ranked somewhat on a personal scale. Or it's based on playing time, how long they stayed with a team, etc. which doesn't necessarily tell you exactly how good or impactful that player actually was.

 

2. Under the current regime, the Bills have not been bad at drafting (probably somewhere in the top third of the league), but they also haven't been great at drafting (consensus top 5 say). Outside of drafting Josh, I doubt any Bills fans would say we have been one of the best drafting teams over the last six years (definite room for improvement), but I also don't think you can say that they have been bad, by any means (in comparison to the rest of the league, they are definitely above average).

 

We may not have drafted as many studs as we would have liked, but we have got a lot of production/minutes from our draft picks (Tre, Dion, Matt, Josh, Tremaine, Harrison, Taron, Siran, Ed, Devin, Dawson, Gabe, Tyler, Dane, A.J., Greg, Boogie, Spencer, Damar, Doyle, Kaiir, Jimbo, Christian, Khalil---and then there is Wyatt and Isiah too, of course). That equates to just over 4 productive players per draft, which I would assume across the league is pretty good. Where we have obviously been lacking is finding Studs...but you also have to remember that four of our six first round picks over that span came in the bottom half of round one. Only Josh at #7 and Ed at #9 were top 15 picks. Most studs are found at the top of the first round. And then it's obviously the same for each subsequent round, we generally are picking at the bottom of the 2nd round, bottom of the third round, etc. Which needs to be taken into account when say comparing it to a team who has been drafting high in the rounds.

 

We may not be one of the best drafting teams (hope that improves), but they ARE pretty darn good at overall team building thus far. And obviously, rankings can change quickly. For instance, if we get studs with say two of our top three picks this year, and/or one or more of Ed, Groot, Boogie, Elam, Shakir, or others raise their gameplay, our drafting success will look a hell of a lot better and we'd probably be considered one of the best drafting teams over the last 7-8 years. But, if our first two picks this year bust or are just mediocre (and none of our young guys take that next step), we would all of a sudden look like a below average drafting team. It's kind of a fluid thing.

 

But, here's to hoping for some big hits this year!

 

 

ESPN: Teams' overall drafting since 2012 ranked. Bills ranked 12th. [Article is from April 2022]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

 

This site ranks for the last 5 years (2017-2021) and has the Bills ranked 3rd. [Article is from April 2022]

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/which-teams-have-been-best-at-drafting/

 

This site has Bills at #16 over the last 5 years (2017-2021). [Article is from April 2021]

https://nypost.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-analysis-ranking-teams-five-year-history/

 

PFF ranking drafts from 2017-2020 [article from Feb 2021]. Bills rank 4th.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Breece hall is amazing.    He just got hurt 

 

you think this guy could do worse then Epanesa, Ford, Badsham, Moss, Ed Oliver etc ? 

I also preferred Hall/Woolen to Elam/Cook . I still think Elam/Cook will be ok, but I really wanted Hall/Woolen and I’m mad about it.