Drafting Has Been A Problem For Decades

[uticaclub]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, "we've seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs," as you say.

 

But it's rare. However, it is certainly a good possibility that it will happen with Milano. He was All-Pro last year.

 

Thought I'd do a quick research project on all of the many late round draft HOFers you're referring to as to be make it surprising to you that we haven't managed it yet in six years. They have to be retired for five years minimum, so it's no use looking at recent players. Thought I'd look at 1990 - 1999 just to see how often it happens. I looked at the fourth round and further back

 

1990 Shannon Sharpe, round 6 in a 12 round draft

1991 none

1992 none

1993 none, and the draft has been shortened to 8 rounds

1994 none

1995 Terrell Davis round 6

1996 Zack Thomas round 5

1997 none

1998 none

1998 none

 

In that same group of ten years, 37 HOFers were drafted in the first three rounds. And after that, three in the fourth and later.

 

So you're really waving a very rare phenomena around and pretending it happens all the time and it's surprising, when it's anything but.

 

 

 

Yes, we haven't flipped for a draft capital gain. That's because we don't do a lot of trading away of our best players. How many of our best have we traded. They make a goal of developing and keeping players. That's why we haven't.

 

"We draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive," you say. I think it's fair to say that your definition of the word "extensive" is pretty much opposite of the one you'll find in the dictionary. Of all the twelve 1st and 2nd rounders drafted by this regime, Zay Jones, Cody Ford and nobody else have been traded. The other ten are all still on the team, though Tremaine is a free agent. Two is not @extensive" by any definition.

 

Your post is pretty much counter-factual about "extensive" and genuinely wacky about most of the rest of it.

 

 

AJE, Bashem & Groot have zero value in the trade market and Oliver is most likely traded this offseason. 

44 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Andre Reed… hall of famer drafted in the 4th round.

 

Kyle Williams … all-pro drafted in the 5th round and possibly a hall of famer on a team that didn’t suck so bad.

Taron Johnson, Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis… all late round guys who will make $10M+. 
 

It’s luck and we’ve been fine. We drafted a top 3 QB and several other great players and are knocking on the door of the Super Bowl every year.

WR3 don't make $10m/year and while I like Knox, we don't utilize the TE position enough to justify the contract we gave him. I hope that changes next year and Knox is used more.

Edited March 9, 2023 by uticaclub

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Most teams have bad draft history, if not all of them. Sure you’ll find random examples, but we can do that for us too. 

[mushypeaches]

My god it's a long off-season

 

Imagine if we didn't have a team that made the playoffs 5 out of the last 6 seasons

[Brand J]

I think Whaley’s scouts, both pro and draft, were better than Beane’s scouts. I don’t remember so many premium failures (high draft picks/costly FAs) under Whaley like Beane has had, but maybe that’s just recency bias. Beane got the one thing right that failed Whaley (QB).

[T master]

13 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Nothing wrong with keeping gems, but a big part of being a GM is knowing when to hold them and when to trade to optimize peak value. We are NOT attrition in well enough as we cycle and it’s why we are beginning to have cap issues again. Cap issues are directly tied to poor drafting. 
We should have traded Milano and Stevie while they still had a net positive gain. 

 

This is the exact reason why they should trade Ed this year i think we have seen his ceiling which isn't terrible but the money he will demand will be more than what he is worth & he isn't playing up to his draft status so get a pick or 2 for him from a team that has a need for him .

 

They have others that may be able to fill his position in Boogie or Settle then use the pics they get to bring up another D linemen .

Edited March 9, 2023 by T master

[Milanos Milano]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

The success of a team is determined by how many players they trade for draft picks?

 

The Bills have tons of good players that they drafted the in thus regime. And they kept them because they are good players!

It’s about knowing when to trade. Obviously you want to keep good players you draft, but a good GM is one that can replace that draft pick with something better before that players value falls off. 

41 minutes ago, T master said:

 

This is the exact reason why they should trade Ed this year i think we have seen his ceiling which isn't terrible but the money he will demand will be more than what he is worth & he isn't playing up to his draft status so get a pick or 2 for him from a team that has a need for him .

 

They have others that may be able to fill his position in Boogie or Settle then use the pics they get to bring up another D linemen .

Yep exactly, you understand the game. It’s about maximizing value that you can use to sustain a team for the future. Use the players you drafted but know when to trade or re-sign until you believe their value is still good until you need to move on. 

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, mushypeaches said:

My god it's a long off-season

 

Imagine if we didn't have a team that made the playoffs 5 out of the last 6 seasons

We are doing that only because of Allen and Diggs. But we aren’t winning the super bowl because our overall drafting hasn’t been good enough. 

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is we don’t take the right one. Just like I was pretty high on Tariq Woolen. 
Just like I was high on Breece Hall. 
 

Just like I’m high on Avila, Hyatt and Flowers. Hope Beane listens to me. 

Who needs the Double Tree when we have the Hyatt. 

you are very high

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, Matt_In_NH said:

you are very high

Revisit this post in 2 years. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

lol I love the nuts on you, claiming that you know better than Beane because why? Breece Hall was good for 7 games?  And you “called it”? Honestly the level of delusion is borderline creepy.

 

13 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The problem is we don’t take the right one. Just like I was pretty high on Tariq Woolen. 
Just like I was high on Breece Hall. 
 

Just like I’m high on Avila, Hyatt and Flowers. Hope Beane listens to me. 

Who needs the Double Tree when we have the Hyatt. 

 

Player A (Hall): 

80 for 463 (5.8 Y/A) and 4 TDs

19 catches / 31 targets for 218 and 1 TD (61.3% catch)

 

Player B: 

89 for 507 (5.7 Y/A) and 2 TDs

21 catches / 32 targets for 180 yards and 1 TD (65.6% catch)

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

 

Player A (Hall): 

80 for 463 (5.8 Y/A) and 4 TDs

19 catches / 31 targets for 218 and 1 TD (61.3% catch)

 

Player B: 

89 for 507 (5.7 Y/A) and 2 TDs

21 catches / 32 targets for 180 yards and 1 TD (65.6% catch)

I had James Cook as a consolation RB prize. He was on my RB list of players to draft. I think Cook will turn out ok. 

[PrimeTime101]

14 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Over the years we’ve seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs or trade them for 1-3rd round picks. I can hardly think of anyone we have drafted that we ended up flipping for a draft capital gain. 
Diggs was a 5th rounder and traded for a 1st. Why can’t we have nice things like that? 
Instead we draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive. It’s primarily why we have never won a super bowl. Probably the #1 reason. If it wasn’t for Allen, we’d be in for a load of hurt. 

do you like making threads where you know people will rarely agree with you? Knowing this thread and how you state things with your grand crystal ball just annoys people? 

 

your one of the cancer cells on this forum that just puts up one horrible narrative after another to hope it spreads.

[Milanos Milano]

4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

do you like making threads where you know people will rarely agree with you? Knowing this thread and how you state things with your grand crystal ball just annoys people? 

 

your one of the cancer cells on this forum that just puts up one horrible narrative after another to hope it spreads.

Why can’t you guys stick with football talk? If you don’t like the topic, stay out of the thread unless you want to contribute something meaningful. 

[PrimeTime101]

34 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Why can’t you guys stick with football talk? If you don’t like the topic, stay out of the thread unless you want to contribute something meaningful. 

maybe because no one really agrees with your thread?

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Over the years we’ve seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs or trade them for 1-3rd round picks. I can hardly think of anyone we have drafted that we ended up flipping for a draft capital gain. 
Diggs was a 5th rounder and traded for a 1st. Why can’t we have nice things like that? 
Instead we draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive. It’s primarily why we have never won a super bowl. Probably the #1 reason. If it wasn’t for Allen, we’d be in for a load of hurt. 

In all 32 teams.  Expectations are to hit on half.  anything more and you’re making a mistake and will always be let down.

[ghostwriter]

5 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Right. 2017 was great. We didn't need Patrick Mahomes. What we did need was the 8th defensive back selected in that draft.   

I loved Mahomes coming out, check the archives here, I always thought that he was a lot like Brett Favre so it’s no wonder that Andy Reid wanted to draft him. I do wonder what conversations were had between McD and Whaley leading up to the draft, ultimately McD didn’t pull the trigger on Mahomes because he didn’t trust Whaley as a GM and he wanted to wait for Beane’s opinion on the matter.

 

I will say this, McD tried recruiting Beane to come to Buffalo for the 2017 draft but Beane opted to stay in Carolina that year. Had Beane came to Buffalo in 2017 like McD wanted, Patrick Mahomes may be our QB right now and not Josh Allen.

[Milanos Milano]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Having the worst scouts in the NFL will do that.

We literally have posters on this forum who are more qualified talent evaluators. 
I’m going to make a thread asking posters to give me a list of who they think will be mainstay players who will be good pros. I want to see who “predicts” the best. 

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

maybe because no one really agrees with your thread?

There are 3 pages of people mostly agreeing with their point or engaging in debate/conversion. Are you ok with the past draft results? Whether it's coaching or scouting, we are not getting production from our picks in the top 2 rounds and we used a 3rd rounded for a special teams player instead of a player that could replace a player you are going to lose to free agency.

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I think Whaley’s scouts, both pro and draft, were better than Beane’s scouts. I don’t remember so many premium failures (high draft picks/costly FAs) under Whaley like Beane has had, but maybe that’s just recency bias. Beane got the one thing right that failed Whaley (QB).

EJ Manuel? Sammy Watkins? Shaq Lawson? Every 1st Round pick under Whaley under performed. What about the great 2nd rounders like Reggie Ragland and  Cyrus Kouandjio.  The list are bad, really bad https://us.blastingnews.com/sports/2016/12/doug-whaley-a-look-at-every-pick-from-the-buffalo-bills-gm-001360789.html

[Gunsgoodtime]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

maybe because no one really agrees with your thread?

It seems most on here agree with it.  I guess you are the no one