Is there any defensive player you'd be happy with at pick 27?

[Doc Brown]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah for the most part I've thought Beane has been sticking to the premium position model.   MLB isn't a premium position but at the time I saw Edmunds as an excellent edge rush prospect that would probably assume the Lorenzo Alexander role and add coverage ability.    I saw Oliver as a pass rusher.    So in that regard they've all been premium positions in round 1.

 

It's rounds 2 and 3 where they have had a tendency to reach for needs.    Epenesa was the only one that kinda' met both premium position and upside, IMO.   Ford and Basham were just JAG's IMO.   Sometimes players get elevated because there is a lack of talent at the position(like Ford in a bad OT class of 2019)..........and other times the perception of a great class raises a few guys who don't pass the eye test(like Basham specifically).  

Yes and no.  They didn't really have a need at DE given the Rousseau selection (plus Epenesa the previous year) but they took Basham anyways.  They took three RB's, a small LB, and a TE so they definitely will move away from premium positions to draft for need.  

 

I disagree with Ford though as he met both premium position/high upside and I don't believe he was elevated because of a weak OT class.  These big boards by the "draft experts" theoretically assign draft grades on each prospect in isolation so it shouldn't matter how strong a particular position is in a draft.  Most had them in the 10 to 30 range citing his upside despite only one year experience at tackle.  The Bills got him at #38 and only moved him to guard when they realized he wasn't going to cut it at tackle.  Spencer Brown was another raw prospect with high upside at a premium position.  I guess this year will be the true test as it's likely S, LB, and IOL as likely needs.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Doc Brown

[Kirby Jackson]

7 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Can Bills move off 27 and still find a starter on either side of the ball ? You are not the first one to mention the quality of this draft vs  our needs

I think that the Bills may move off of 27 (up or down). The 1st round WRs are likely gone. There may be some OL fits that would be a bit of a stretch.
 

It’s possible that the “best value” in terms of overall ranking is Bijan. He’s a top 5 player in this draft. It’s a low demand position but likely a need for the Bills. The TEs may be “decent value” at 27. Again, it isn’t the Bills biggest need but they could find ways to make the right player help the offense. It’s, potentially, a matter of need vs. quality of player.
 

How far, if at all, off your big board do you go to fill a need? That’s what we are (potentially) dealing with. For me, I’d stick to my board as closely as I can, weighted towards positions of need. I’d be committed to helping the offense though. That’s why I said I would take Bijan/ TE > defense.

[Bill from NYC]

13 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If Bijan drops to 27 (which I think is very unlikely), Beane will have an extremely difficult decision. On one hand you have the fans looking for that Thurman type RB for Josh.  And it looks like Robinson is the real deal. Then there's the fans who say we hardly run anyway, so why waste the pick.  I don't have any crystal ball but you gotta hit on your 1st rounder. It's expected to be an immediate starter who's on a cheap 5 yr contract. Just a brutal call when you're drafting this late. 

Robinson probably is the real deal. That said, how far will he be able to go behind the Bills OL? Derrick Henry certainly is the real deal and he needs room to go downhill and overpower defenders.

 

For decades, the Bills have built their team ass backwards. Now we have the best QB in the history of the franchise and still McDermott just refuses to dedicate the resources needed to protect him, let alone provide him with ample weapons at WR. 

 

Now, will this be the year that McDermott goes all out on blockers and receivers? I don't know. Who knows if he will be able to resist secondary and undersized DTs?

[Bill from NYC]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that the Bills may move off of 27 (up or down). The 1st round WRs are likely gone. There may be some OL fits that would be a bit of a stretch.
 

It’s possible that the “best value” in terms of overall ranking is Bijan. He’s a top 5 player in this draft. It’s a low demand position but likely a need for the Bills. The TEs may be “decent value” at 27. Again, it isn’t the Bills biggest need but they could find ways to make the right player help the offense. It’s, potentially, a matter of need vs. quality of player.
 

How far, if at all, off your big board do you go to fill a need? That’s what we are (potentially) dealing with. For me, I’d stick to my board as closely as I can, weighted towards positions of need. I’d be committed to helping the offense though. That’s why I said I would take Bijan/ TE > defense.

Drafting Bijan would be something that Ralph Wilson would have demanded. Players like this thrilled Mr. Wilson because they put "fannies in the seats.' Remember, Ralph needed the ticket/concession income more than most owners. 

 

Bijan would make some great runs because of his talent if the OL could give him occasional running room. Then, fans would see this and say he is "good" or even "great." They would rationalize the pick but it probably would not result in so many wins due to the 2010 rule chages and once again, the OL.

 

Despite my blatant pessimism, I continue to watch the draft every year, just hoping for a good one. I don't get as upset as I used to. TSW posters would call me on the phone just to hear my stream of intense vulgarity after for instance the Leodis McKelvin pick lol. Now it's all good. I just continue to hope that we don't repeat the same dumb, costly mistakes.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

Drafting Bijan would be something that Ralph Wilson would have demanded. Players like this thrilled Mr. Wilson because they put "fannies in the seats.' Remember, Ralph needed the ticket/concession income more than most owners. 

 

Bijan would make some great runs because of his talent if the OL could give him occasional running room. Then, fans would see this and say he is "good" or even "great." They would rationalize the pick but it probably would not result in so many wins due to the 2010 rule chages and once again, the OL.

 

Despite my blatant pessimism, I continue to watch the draft every year, just hoping for a good one. I don't get as upset as I used to. TSW posters would call me on the phone just to hear my stream of intense vulgarity after for instance the Leodis McKelvin pick lol. Now it's all good. I just continue to hope that we don't repeat the same dumb, costly mistakes.

Another D dominant draft at the top is half way to Aloha on a steel guitar. 

[Billz4ever]

On 3/5/2023 at 1:49 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea that is encouraging. I am not anti Jack Campbell. I like him a lot. I just don't love the tape when you see him moved laterally and as such don't think he is a super good fit for what the Bills have done with their MLB. 

 

I get that. I don't want it either. 

Depending a lot on who's already off the board, I'm becoming very comfortable with the idea of trading out of the first round and getting into the early second.  

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Drafting Bijan would be something that Ralph Wilson would have demanded. Players like this thrilled Mr. Wilson because they put "fannies in the seats.' Remember, Ralph needed the ticket/concession income more than most owners. 

 

Bijan would make some great runs because of his talent if the OL could give him occasional running room. Then, fans would see this and say he is "good" or even "great." They would rationalize the pick but it probably would not result in so many wins due to the 2010 rule chages and once again, the OL.

 

Despite my blatant pessimism, I continue to watch the draft every year, just hoping for a good one. I don't get as upset as I used to. TSW posters would call me on the phone just to hear my stream of intense vulgarity after for instance the Leodis McKelvin pick lol. Now it's all good. I just continue to hope that we don't repeat the same dumb, costly mistakes.

100%. Leodis ugh that hurt. Bijan sounds good in a vacuum until you remember our o line can’t run block so what good is he? We are also philosophically not a running team like the titans so why invest in a workhouse you won’t use? 
 

Agree with the comment we have to stop building our team backwards. We have the QB, now protect him and give him weapons. Doesn’t seem difficult to me. 
 

The good news is that QBs will be in higher demand this year which will push some good players down. Same could be true for CB. Just need a good WR or IOL to fall to us to help Josh. 
 

All that said, I fully expect to waste a pick on a safety. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Billz4ever said:

Depending a lot on who's already off the board, I'm becoming very comfortable with the idea of trading out of the first round and getting into the early second.  

The problem is finding someone who wants to trade up.  There will likely be a bunch of players roughly in the same tier, so what incentive will a team have to move up.  It often takes a QB available late for someone to want to jump up, but who would that be.  Tanner McKee?

[BullBuchanan]

Yep - Trenton Simpson or Jack Campbell

[gonzo1105]

20 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yep - Trenton Simpson or Jack Campbell

 

I agree here but drafting Simpson would be a change in defensive philosophy. Simpson is not a MLB. He is jack of all trades LB. He lines up outside, in the slot, rushers the passer but is not an in the box fill the A gap type guy. He's more of a very valuable big Nickel type player to be honest. Campbell more fits the traditional MLB of today. 

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

I agree here but drafting Simpson would be a change in defensive philosophy. Simpson is not a MLB. He is jack of all trades LB. He lines up outside, in the slot, rushers the passer but is not an in the box fill the A gap type guy. He's more of a very valuable big Nickel type player to be honest. Campbell more fits the traditional MLB of today. 

That's not really true. Simpson is everything Edmunds was supposed to be + more. Simpson is the perfect fit for Tampa 2. Campbell requires a scheme change because he isn't athletic enough to do what Edmunds did.

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

That's not really true. Simpson is everything Edmunds was supposed to be + more. Simpson is the perfect fit for Tampa 2. Campbell requires a scheme change because he isn't athletic enough to do what Edmunds did.

 

This is 100% true. In 2021 when Simpson was asked to be a LB in space because Baylor Spector was the MLB, Simpson had 65 Tackles, 12.5 TFL, 6 Sacks, 11 additional QB Pressures, and 3 passed broken up. 

 

Spector graduated and they moved Simpson inside. This year he had 72 tackles(expected playing MLB), 4 TFL, 2.5 Sacks, and 3 PD. 

 

His stat line dropped big time. Can't blame that on lack of talent up front as Clemson arguably had the 2nd or 3rd best DL in the country last year. He is a better player in space than he is in the box. His tape and stats prove that. Its not to say he can't play MLB but he is better suited to play outside and chase 

[SCBills]

Not gonna lie... and I'm typically all about Offense... but I wouldn't hate Nolan Smith if he's there. 

 

We're not going to have chances to get the next Von Miller for a while.... this guy has the raw skills to be that, and essentially be coached by Von Miller.

[Mynamemike]

I know I’m in the minority, but I feel like in the first round, If we can add an elite talent at any position other than a quarterback, we should pull the trigger. I’ll take another first on a corner or dline if it’s someone who’s going to contribute.      

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Mynamemike said:

I know I’m in the minority, but I feel like in the first round, If we can add an elite talent at any position other than a quarterback, we should pull the trigger. I’ll take another first on a corner or dline if it’s someone who’s going to contribute.      

 

I don't know if Elite will be there but I agree with the premise. The Bills need to draft the best guy they can at any position this year. I actually really like Trenton Simpson the LB at 27. He has explosive traits and production especially his sophomore year. He'd be a guy who has a reasonable chance to be there at 27, would fit the new supposedly aggressive mode that McDermott wants for his defense, and possesses traits that if he is coached up in the NFL could be a star. 

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

This is 100% true. In 2021 when Simpson was asked to be a LB in space because Baylor Spector was the MLB, Simpson had 65 Tackles, 12.5 TFL, 6 Sacks, 11 additional QB Pressures, and 3 passed broken up. 

 

Spector graduated and they moved Simpson inside. This year he had 72 tackles(expected playing MLB), 4 TFL, 2.5 Sacks, and 3 PD. 

 

His stat line dropped big time. Can't blame that on lack of talent up front as Clemson arguably had the 2nd or 3rd best DL in the country last year. He is a better player in space than he is in the box. His tape and stats prove that. Its not to say he can't play MLB but he is better suited to play outside and chase 

Of course his stat line is going to drop if he's being asked to do other things. it doesn't mean he was less effective at his new role. We also have no obligation to use him at his most effective role if he would still be the best Tampa 2 MLB in the class.

He's still a complete upgrade over Tremaine Edmunds in every respect as a prospect even if he isn't playing a glorified EDGE.

Did you see his combine numbers?

Edited March 7, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[gonzo1105]

18 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Of course his stat line is going to drop if he's being asked to do other things. it doesn't mean he was less effective at his new role. We also have no obligation to use him at his most effective role if he would still be the best Tampa 2 MLB in the class.

He's still a complete upgrade over Tremaine Edmunds in every respect as a prospect even if he isn't playing a glorified EDGE.

Did you see his combine numbers?

Yes I’m a big fan but less so at Mike than at Field LB. He’s a better player outside than Inside in my opinion. I think he’d be better in an attacking defense than a rush 4 drop 8 type defense like a Tampa 2 or the quarters defense the Bills were playing 
 

 

[Reed83HOF]

27 in the draft is rough with what our needs are. A few thoughts on this...

 

1.) How much will the rookie play and what impact is reasonably expected from the player and their position in year 1? The contributions may come later and not what the fans expect (immediate impact). Playing OL, TE and WR in the league do take some time to get up and going, WR not necessarily as much as in the past. 

 

2.) Beane will fill most holes in the roster before the draft, he does it every year. 

 

3.) Younger guy with top athletic traits are our first round targets under Beane. Usually have a vet they work behind before they get in the starting group.

 

4.) Wr with 3 level ability and having a diverse route tree is what our trait has to be, pass catchers alone are not enough. I tend to think WR 2 is obtained via trade (Cortland Sutton) or UFA (OBJ) rather than rd1. I'd see us moving around in rd2 to grab a WR and not as much in rd1, jmo...

 

5.)Beane won't force the pick and that still leave Bijan on the table (provided the no RB in rd1 still apllies) and this is a good draft for TE talent - that might be the position with the highest board ratings around this pick. That being said we just signed Knox to a not cheap deal and how often will we realistically run 2 TE sets and how many targets do you expect them to get? Will a TE be a 3 level target and take the top off the D and help free up Diggs? I just don't see it here...

 

6.) I look at coaching and McD, there is good amount of comfort and confidence with this team in developing D talent from within, aside from Allen, I don't see much of it from that side of the ball. Perhaps our new WR coach changes that? I still don't buy it, we went out and got diggs for a first to immediately hop in and help josh, I somewhat expect the same thing there is year and some cap maneuvering to make it happen. Same applies to the OL. Mid round developmental prospects.

 

Our D will change this year. When Sean was talking about cap spending vs positional value, I do expect the see some changes to the amount of cash tied up in DL, which leads me to believe a pick on the DL in rd1 is not out of the question.

 

I go back to the past couple drafts and I'd say where we didn't maybe do enough was to try to get a year ahead and draft guys aa year early based on expiring contracts. You get the year of development (like cook) and aren't pigeonholed as much as we seemingly are this year and with the dl heavy draft 2 years ago....

 

 

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yes I’m a big fan but less so at Mike than at Field LB. He’s a better player outside than Inside in my opinion. I think he’d be better in an attacking defense than a rush 4 drop 8 type defense like a Tampa 2 or the quarters defense the Bills were playing 
 

 

In this scheme I do think he is a developmental MLB.... but a bit like we did with Tremaine you are gonna go through some growing pains. I think he is a will in a 3-4 if you want him to be good early. 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

If Edmonds can't be resigned, Campbell of Iowa or Sanders from Arkansas would make the most sense for the Bills #1 pick.  Then OL in the 2nd round.

It would also help if the Bills could find a trade partner and move out of the 1st round into the early or mid 2nd.  Campbell or Sanders should still be available and with the extra pick the Bills could be more likely to fill their needs at OL and grab a TE from the deep TE class in this draft.  

Nearly all the WR in this draft are small and light.  A dominant TE to pair with Knox could make the Bills and Josh Allen a nightmare for the rest of the NFL.  

Lot of wishful thinking in this post.