Is there any defensive player you'd be happy with at pick 27?

[Freddie's Dead]

12 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

Dude, we're not Cleveland.

 

Good on ya, mate!

21 hours ago, Nitro said:

Bills will have major hoes to fill.

 

Arguably the funniest misspelling in TBD history....

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What is your view Badol on premium position in a sucky class like this? You are the most devout advocate of premium positions in early rounds (which is a principle I largely agree with) but I have been reflecting a lot on this class over the past fortnight. I think I'd find it really, really hard as a GM at the bottom of round 1 in this draft to stick resolutely to premium positions if I genuinely didn't like any of the guys there. I can see a scenario were even my 2nd round grades at WR, LT, DE, QB are exhausted by the time the Bills pick. The one premium position where I think that might not be the case is corner but @Bill from NYC might actually hunt me down and murder me if I take over from Beane and draft a corner at #27 (even in an alternate reality haha). And I don't make him wrong. Another corner in the first would make very little sense to me. 

 

I'm genuinely interested in your take. I kinda feel like in a class like this I might be more willing to take a non-premium position guy I at least feel somewhat good about - a right tackle only, a safety, a tight end etc. I just find it difficult to get excited about almost any of this class. 

 

 

My preference, of course, if there isn't a premium option available is to trade out.    To either acquire a good player or accumulate more picks.   That's what I am actually hoping for........I'd love to have another top 100 pick. 

 

But if it came down to there just being a top CB prospect available who checks all the boxes of being a future stud........and nobody wants to pay the price for the pick..........I'd take the CB.

 

Who knows?  There weren't any shut down CB's on the field for the Bills last season.   We assume Tre White will bounce back but what little man coverage he was once capable of he may never be again.   So yes, they appear to have starters but by this time next year CB1 might actually be a need.    And bad CB drafts happen too.......so my philosophy is if you can't move then get quality at a premium position when you can.

 

And another CB in the rotation might also allow them to move Taron Johnson to safety..........which is probably something I'd be asking for if I were him.   He's earned the right to have the chance at that promotion, IMO.   It wouldn't be a throw away pick.

 

Changing your philosophy is a slippery slope..........when you take a Bijan Robinson or James Cook in the first two rounds..........you almost certainly DON'T take a Tyjae Spears or Isaiah Pacheco with a considerably later pick.     

 

This draft isn't great but I don't think it's terrible..........it just isn't great for the Bills current needs in the early rounds.    But needs change fast.   There could be a C who goes in round 5 this year that might have been pushed up into round 2 or 3 by need in past years.   Lot's of RB's.    Plenty of safeties and a fair amount of promising OTB LB's as well.  So when you take those guys real early you kinda' set yourself up to fail in later rounds if you aren't willing to pick more of them when they actually represent value.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My preference, of course, if there isn't a premium option available is to trade out.    To either acquire a good player or accumulate more picks.   That's what I am actually hoping for........I'd love to have another top 100 pick. 

 

But if it came down to there just being a top CB prospect available who checks all the boxes of being a future stud........and nobody wants to pay the price for the pick..........I'd take the CB.

 

Who knows?  There weren't any shut down CB's on the field for the Bills last season.   We assume Tre White will bounce back but what little man coverage he was once capable of he may never be again.   So yes, they appear to have starters but by this time next year CB1 might actually be a need.    And bad CB drafts happen too.......so my philosophy is if you can't move then get quality at a premium position when you can.

 

And another CB in the rotation might also allow them to move Taron Johnson to safety..........which is probably something I'd be asking for if I were him.   He's earned the right to have the chance at that promotion, IMO.   It wouldn't be a throw away pick.

 

Changing your philosophy is a slippery slope..........when you take a Bijan Robinson or James Cook in the first two rounds..........you almost certainly DON'T take a Tyjae Spears or Isaiah Pacheco with a considerably later pick.     

 

This draft isn't great but I don't think it's terrible..........it just isn't great for the Bills current needs in the early rounds.    But needs change fast.   There could be a C who goes in round 5 this year that might have been pushed up into round 2 or 3 by need in past years.   Lot's of RB's.    Plenty of safeties and a fair amount of promising OTB LB's as well.  So when you take those guys real early you kinda' set yourself up to fail in later rounds if you aren't willing to pick more of them when they actually represent value.

 

In agree the depth is there at the non-premium positions later. I don't even think it is about the Bills needs... because you could argue they have needs at IOL, S and potentially OTB LB too and there are options there. Where I think this draft is week is at premium spots. I like the very top end of the edge class. I am more lukewarm on the 2nd and 3rd tier guys. I don't like the receiver group, I think the top 2/3 tackles are decent but not much behind them. I don't love the QB class... it is really just corner of the premium positions where I think the class is strong. It's other strong positions are non-premium positions. 

 

I dunno. I am struggling for a move I like. I might actually favour trading down and accumulating 2024 assets.....

[gonzo1105]

Yes there are guys I could understand. 
 

If Brian Branch is there, if Trenton Simpson is there. There are some D-Ends that could be there that could be difference makers. I wouldn’t be displeased as long as it’s an explosive athlete that I feel can be a difference maker at the next level. 

[BADOLBILZ]

55 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In agree the depth is there at the non-premium positions later. I don't even think it is about the Bills needs... because you could argue they have needs at IOL, S and potentially OTB LB too and there are options there. Where I think this draft is week is at premium spots. I like the very top end of the edge class. I am more lukewarm on the 2nd and 3rd tier guys. I don't like the receiver group, I think the top 2/3 tackles are decent but not much behind them. I don't love the QB class... it is really just corner of the premium positions where I think the class is strong. It's other strong positions are non-premium positions. 

 

I dunno. I am struggling for a move I like. I might actually favour trading down and accumulating 2024 assets.....

 

 

It's not an easy call but part of my philosophy is that the team should recognize that the 1st round pick is both the best chance to find a star player but also the most overrated personnel chip.   It's still pretty much just a 50/50 swing whether you swing big or just try to make contact.     If you swing and miss BIG........at least you gave yourself a chance at a home run.    You can draft poorly in round 1 and win.    But drafting non-premium positions becomes a double edged sword because you eventually have to pay them close to premium dollars if they pan out.........which is not ideal at all.

 

How bad does the Quenton Nelson pick look in hindsight?  He was as sure of a thing at a non-premium position as Bijan Robinson........and he played well enough for the 5th year option decision after year 3 to pressure the team into a 4 year $80M extension and now he has already turned into a middling performer when Josh Allen is just entering his prime.   I'd rather have swung and missed at a Josh Rosen level than that.  

 

That 5th year option coming due after just 3 years.........when a second round pick has 4 years before you have to decide on anything beyond that........really complicates the decision and truthfully most fans put zero consideration into that.    The GM having to decide whether to give a #1 pick RB an extension to keep him to year 8 or 9 or to choke down a $15M+ cap hit in 2027........that is a very unappealing situation.   Especially if he has the huge ups and downs like sure things of recent past in Fournette, Barkley and McCaffrey.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Saxum]

20 hours ago, Yantha said:

Oh there will be heads exploding during the draft.  ...

 

Alcohol and hot air does that near open flames like torches.

Someone will need to clean up mess.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not an easy call but part of my philosophy is that the team should recognize that the 1st round pick is both the best chance to find a star player but also the most overrated personnel chip.   It's still pretty much just a 50/50 swing whether you swing big or just try to make contact.     If you swing and miss BIG........at least you gave yourself a chance at a home run.    You can draft poorly in round 1 and win.    But drafting non-premium positions becomes a double edged sword because you eventually have to pay them close to premium dollars if they pan out.........which is not ideal at all.

 

How bad does the Quenton Nelson pick look in hindsight?  He was as sure of a thing at a non-premium position as Bijan Robinson........and he played well enough for the 5th year option decision after year 3 to pressure the team into a 4 year $80M extension and now he has already turned into a middling performer when Josh Allen is just entering his prime.   I'd rather have swung and missed at a Josh Rosen level than that.  

 

That 5th year option coming due after just 3 years.........when a second round pick has 4 years before you have to decide on anything beyond that........really complicates the decision and truthfully most fans put zero consideration into that.    The GM having to decide whether to give a #1 pick RB an extension to keep him to year 8 or 9 or to choke down a $15M+ cap hit in 2027........that is a very unappealing situation.   Especially if he has the huge ups and downs like sure things of recent past in Fournette, Barkley and McCaffrey.

 

 

 

Yea I totally get it. We will see how it plays out, but I think this year more than any I have had as a Bills fan, not just since I have been a draft geek, I might be inclined to just shoot the 1 and take a profit rather than try to shoot a 3 in this class.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I totally get it. We will see how it plays out, but I think this year more than any I have had as a Bills fan, not just since I have been a draft geek, I might be inclined to just shoot the 1 and take a profit rather than try to shoot a 3 in this class.

 

 

Yeah I actually expect Beane to seriously consider a RB in round 1 in particular.    That's what they did in Carolina when they felt like Cam couldn't get them over the hump with what they had.   That looked good on paper and of course turned out terribly........but it is what they did and Beane was there when they did it.

 

I'll add that back in the 1990's I thought you couldn't go broke making a profit in round 1.........that's not to say I liked the Bills picks,  I did not(unlike the #1 picks under Beane to date).   The Bills took what were then non-premium positions in round 1 practically every year and had pretty good success.    It gradually opened the door up for the Patriots in the mid-90's, though.   One thing that hasn't changed is that it's a matchup league still.   Difference makers are worth exponentially more.........so I'll stay in the high reward area in round 1.   

Edited March 6, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Saxum]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

For me on defense it is not about filling holes, it is about filling in a missing "type" of player. The kind that is okay getting in the face of opponents AND teammates and that opposing players are afraid to be hit by. We are missing size and physicality on defense. Many of us want the defense to start playing more of an attack style instead of a passive style against top offenses. Getting a big brute in the middle of the defense would be a good starting point.

 

Drafting a safety in the 1st I agree that would give me the sense of Beane just trying to fill a hole and personally I wouldn't be happy with that pick. The one that has been named, Antonio Johnson, I don't see a ceiling for him where he becomes a truly game changing player. You almost have to be an all-time great to be a game changer at safety. I think I would take any other position, even RB, before considering safety in the 1st.

 

I agree with first paragraph.  Taron Johnson will need to move to different position if that occurs.  Think he can handle safety?

 

Regarding second paragraph okay with punter in first after we trade down with Kansas City? 

 

I wonder if NFLPA will sue Phish for trying to imitate NE Cheaters and doing a bad job at it.  This hurts player chance of a 5 year contract.

Quote

NOTE: The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I actually expect Beane to seriously consider a RB in round 1 in particular.    That's what they did in Carolina when they felt like Cam couldn't get them over the hump with what they had.   That looked good on paper and of course turned out terribly........but it is what they did and Beane was there when they did it.

 

I'll add that back in the 1990's I thought you couldn't go broke making a profit in round 1.........that's not to say I liked the Bills picks,  I did not(unlike the #1 picks under Beane to date).   The Bills took what were then non-premium positions in round 1 practically every year and had pretty good success.    It gradually opened the door up for the Patriots in the mid-90's, though.   One thing that hasn't changed is that it's a matchup league still.   Difference makers are worth exponentially more.........so I'll stay in the high reward area in round 1.   

 

I am still anti a running back. And I think it is a one year exception for me to not require it to be a premium position depending on the board. It comes down to my view on the class.

[OldTimer1960]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I totally get it. We will see how it plays out, but I think this year more than any I have had as a Bills fan, not just since I have been a draft geek, I might be inclined to just shoot the 1 and take a profit rather than try to shoot a 3 in this class.

This is great discussion.  No point taking a WR who isn’t that good or an interior OL who may be very good, but you won’t pay.  Just recognize it is a poor class and see what you can do for the future is a reasonable approach.  
 

A good C or G in round 1 is ok in the near-term, but will you pay them later?  An average/decent WR doesn’t really move the needle.

[LABILLBACKER]

If Bijan drops to 27 (which I think is very unlikely), Beane will have an extremely difficult decision. On one hand you have the fans looking for that Thurman type RB for Josh.  And it looks like Robinson is the real deal. Then there's the fans who say we hardly run anyway, so why waste the pick.  I don't have any crystal ball but you gotta hit on your 1st rounder. It's expected to be an immediate starter who's on a cheap 5 yr contract. Just a brutal call when you're drafting this late. 

[Chaos]

 

Unless Skoronski, Paris Johnson, or Broderick Jones falls to 27, the pick will likely be defense.  I was pretty impressed with Dawand Jones at the combine.  He is likely to be there at 27.  Not sure the Bills will like him as much as I did and pull the trigger at 27 on Dawand Jones though. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Chaos

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

 

Unless Skoronski, Paris Johnson, or Broderick Jones falls to 27, the pick will likely be defense.  I was pretty impressed with Dawand Jones at the combine.  He is likely to be there at 27.  Not sure the Bills will like him as much as I did and pull the trigger at 27 on Dawand Jones though. 

 

The problem with taking Dawand Jones at 27 is you're basically giving up on Spencer Brown. Two players that exclusively play RT, the 1st round pick is going to win that battle. I'm just not ready to give up on a raw physical specimen entering his 3rd year, and I doubt the Bills are either. Part of the draft investment is the time you spend developing that player. Losing Wyatt Teller didn't hurt because we wasted a 5th round pick, it hurt because we let another team enjoy the fruits of that development. I could see something similar happening with Brown if we give up on him now.

 

Plus RT is a pretty easy position to fill, so the worst case scenario of missing out on Dawand Jones is we lose out on an easy to fill non-premium position. It's like losing out on a 1st round RB who goes on to be elite. It just doesn't hurt your team enough to be worth worrying about. The Chiefs had the 2nd best OL in the league with a meh RT.

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

Spencer Brown.

I am giving up on Spencer Brown.  He can fight for the starting role.  At this point best case scenario is he stops being a turnstile just in time for his rookie contract to be up, and he can get crazy free agent money. 

[3rdand12]

On 3/5/2023 at 3:43 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that I can. It would have to be some freakish situation where someone absolutely plummets (like Carter 😂😂). If this situation gets a whole lot worse, maybe I could make that work but he’s going to go in the top 5. 
 

I’m in the camp of Bijan or TE > defense. WR and OL are my wishes but I’m not sure that a WR, of value, will make it to 27. He OL will have some guys there maybe but possibly not great fits. This class gives me anxiety. 

Can Bills move off 27 and still find a starter on either side of the ball ? You are not the first one to mention the quality of this draft vs  our needs
although i have read some good things about WRs

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Kincaid is an exception in this class in that he is a player I have liked more the more I watch him. Fluid mover, very good hands, decent understanding of leverage. His blocking sucks, but he is a bit wirey and I don't rule out with an NFL S&C programme him improving that element to at least be passable. Otherwise you could still get a Jimmy Graham, Zach Ertz or Mike Gesicki type big slot even if he never develops as a blocker. 

 

I now have him as my TE1 in the class. Not a true 1st rounder by any means but in a class where they are in short supply..... maybe at #27 I could get myself comfortable with it. I suppose the only thing I'd say is if LB and TE are in play at #27 I am not sure why safety wouldn't be? Again not advocating for a safety, but they are in the same tier of positional value.

you sound like you are advocating for that safety 😋

Edited March 7, 2023 by 3rdand12

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If Bijan drops to 27 (which I think is very unlikely), Beane will have an extremely difficult decision. On one hand you have the fans looking for that Thurman type RB for Josh.  And it looks like Robinson is the real deal. Then there's the fans who say we hardly run anyway, so why waste the pick.  I don't have any crystal ball but you gotta hit on your 1st rounder. It's expected to be an immediate starter who's on a cheap 5 yr contract. Just a brutal call when you're drafting this late. 

someone will trade for him at that point ?  

[Rico]

No, I’m with the masses that want to go O on Days 1 & 2. Only thing that would change my mind about going D is if there was a proven thug available that likes to hurt QBs.  

[Trust The Process]

Assuming we lose Tremaine Edmunds, the defensive player I would draft is Jack Campbell LB Iowa 

[Nextmanup]

No.