Strong vs. Weak Positional Groups - Draft

[Niagara Dude]

17 hours ago, Yantha said:

Hi All,

 

I hesitate to start another thread (I've started a few in recent days), but I'm putting the question out to the fellow draft geeks.  While I've been looking at the draft class, a few things have been standing out that makes me rethink the approach to the FREE AGENCY and draft.

1.  Runningback is a pretty strong group in my opinion, with quality backs projected to be available fairly deep, even through round 6 or so.  I think Singletary has to WALK, let Cook get a kick at the can, with Hines and a mid round draft pick nipping at their heels.

2.  WR seems pretty good through round 3.  I agree with Beane that we can trust Davis to rebound, and I REALLY like Shakir.  I'd add an AFFORDABLE free agent to the mix, and see if there is a quality WR somewhere in the draft.

3.  This draft is very strong with Safeties.   Poyer really wants out from what it seems...  so Safety is a must draft EARLY or nab a quality replacement in the FA.

4.  Linebacker looks pretty strong as well, through rounds 3-4, so Tremaine could be replaced via the draft.

5.  Backup QB:  I like a few options as deep as round 6.

6.  Pass Rush:  LOTS of great options in this draft, very deep.

7.  DT:  Not a huge need for the team, but some late round talent available.

 

Which brings me to the main point.  I like quite a few OTs, OGs, and OCs (BUT NOT VERY MANY, deeper in the draft!!!).  I think this is a weaker draft for O-linemen than what we'd like.  Considering the many teams in need of O-linemen, I feel that it will be slim pickings for teams looking for immediate starters, especially outside of round 3.

 

I think that it would be pretty irresponsible for Beane to roll the dice on getting lucky and landing more than one TOP O-lineman prospect.  We arguably need THREE new starters and we will not get all of those in the draft.

 

I think the vast majority of FA money needs to be invested into TWO top O-line free agents.  Let's shore up Right Tackle and ONE Guard spot, so that we won't be forced to REACH in this draft for O-linemen, and failing to add BPA talent at other positions of need.

 

Looking forward to the Free Agency flurry, and hope we come away with TWO established, dominant O-linemen.

Poyer really wants out....... who cares he is 32 and we need to move on and start adding youth to this team just like the Chiefs did last season. I pray the Bills do not resign him because it would be a huge mistake unless he wants to return and for less then 3-4 million. Most of his interception last season were tipped balls,  go look at him getting smoked in that Bengals game when we"re playing against an elite QB.  

[colin]

the offseason aside from plugging a couple holes at LB, S, and DT, we have to come away with at least 2 new guys on OL (they don't both have to start, but they have to be there) and at least one new starting quality WR (i suppose a TE and depth at WR might do, but we need a new productive target).

 

I could see a couple picks going towards IOL and working out (heck, i'd take just one working out) but i think we either have to drop a 1st on OT or find a solid OT in FA.  this will let us move or move on from brown if he's not better/healthy, or if he is, maybe put the new OT at LT and move dawkins inside.

 

If possible, i'd trade oliver for a 3rd (or whatever) and use those savings (and also either rework hynes or cut him) to get a real OT in FA.  if we do that and get like decent jags for LB, DT, RB, and S, and also draft a nice WR and draft an IOL or two, i'd expect us to be a better team Jan 2024 than we were Jan 2023.

[Solomon Grundy]

Talk about production!!

Cooper Kupp 2.0?

[Ayjent]

4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Talk about production!!

Cooper Kupp 2.0?

Impressive.  Can’t say I watched much of Purdue in the past several years. 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, Ayjent said:

Impressive.  Can’t say I watched much of Purdue in the past several years. 

Draft Network says he has six drops in his collegiate career. Used to catch passes at UB from Tyree Jackson. Lol

Edited March 3, 2023 by Solomon Grundy

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Draft Network says he has six drops in his collegiate career. Used to catch passes at UB from Tyree Jackson. Lol

 

He is only 6 months younger than Tremaine Edmunds. He is the definition of a one contract guy because he will be 29 by the time he becomes eligible for a 2nd one. He finally produced in college at his third school, age 24, and good for him. He is probably now going to be drafted which a year ago was a pipe dream. But no way is he even worth thinking about before the throw away rounds. He will probably be announced by some team mascot hanging off a zip wire about halfway through day 3.....

[SoMAn]

On 3/1/2023 at 1:31 PM, Yantha said:

Hi All,

 

I hesitate to start another thread (I've started a few in recent days), but I'm putting the question out to the fellow draft geeks.  While I've been looking at the draft class, a few things have been standing out that makes me rethink the approach to the FREE AGENCY and draft.

1.  Runningback is a pretty strong group in my opinion, with quality backs projected to be available fairly deep, even through round 6 or so.  I think Singletary has to WALK, let Cook get a kick at the can, with Hines and a mid round draft pick nipping at their heels.

2.  WR seems pretty good through round 3.  I agree with Beane that we can trust Davis to rebound, and I REALLY like Shakir.  I'd add an AFFORDABLE free agent to the mix, and see if there is a quality WR somewhere in the draft.

3.  This draft is very strong with Safeties.   Poyer really wants out from what it seems...  so Safety is a must draft EARLY or nab a quality replacement in the FA.

4.  Linebacker looks pretty strong as well, through rounds 3-4, so Tremaine could be replaced via the draft.

5.  Backup QB:  I like a few options as deep as round 6.

6.  Pass Rush:  LOTS of great options in this draft, very deep.

7.  DT:  Not a huge need for the team, but some late round talent available.

 

Which brings me to the main point.  I like quite a few OTs, OGs, and OCs (BUT NOT VERY MANY, deeper in the draft!!!).  I think this is a weaker draft for O-linemen than what we'd like.  Considering the many teams in need of O-linemen, I feel that it will be slim pickings for teams looking for immediate starters, especially outside of round 3.

 

I think that it would be pretty irresponsible for Beane to roll the dice on getting lucky and landing more than one TOP O-lineman prospect.  We arguably need THREE new starters and we will not get all of those in the draft.

 

I think the vast majority of FA money needs to be invested into TWO top O-line free agents.  Let's shore up Right Tackle and ONE Guard spot, so that we won't be forced to REACH in this draft for O-linemen, and failing to add BPA talent at other positions of need.

 

Looking forward to the Free Agency flurry, and hope we come away with TWO established, dominant O-linemen.

Poyer is probably gone and the good news is there are good safety prospects. But...don't the Dolphins and every other possible Poyer suitor know that? Why would they overpay (more than what the Bills would) for an aging safety who may have some gas in the tank, but could 'hit the wall' any point from now until the end of his career, knowing there's a good pool of economically beneficial safeties in this draft class?

It's an accepted fact that apart from having Tom Brady, the Patriots long run of success was due in part to knowing when to cut a player loose while they could still provide some future benefits in the form of compensation picks or draft choices in trade. They were able to parlay veteran players nearing their end of usefulness into future players with low cap implications who they'd develop to replace the veteran. They were savvy enough not to get too emotionally attached to the roster.

I'll be surprised if Poyer gets a great payday without tons of incentives in the contract.

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by SoMAn

[Yantha]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

Poyer is probably gone and the good news is there are good safety prospects. But...don't the Dolphins and every other possible Poyer suitor know that? Why would they overpay (more than what the Bills would) for an aging safety who may have some gas in the tank, but could 'hit the wall' any point from now until the end of his career, knowing there's a good pool of economically beneficial safeties in this draft class?

It's an accepted fact that apart from having Tom Brady, the Patriots long run of success was due in part to knowing when to cut a player loose while they could still provide some future benefits in the form of compensation picks or draft choices in trade. They were able to parlay veteran players nearing their end of usefulness into future players with low cap implications who they'd develop to replace the veteran. They were savvy enough not to get too emotionally attached to the roster.

I'll be surprised if Poyer gets a great payday without tons of incentives in the contract.

 

 

He'll go to a playoff team that wants to rent a player to give them an edge.  Someone proven, and doesn't need time to develop.  

 

This is a definite loss for the Bills but again, I think Poyer's best days are behind him and just watch out for how many games he actually plays next season.  NFL football is full of monsters and to be over 30 in this league?  Those weekend bumps and bruises add up to missed games.

[SoMAn]

13 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

He'll go to a playoff team that wants to rent a player to give them an edge.  Someone proven, and doesn't need time to develop.  

 

This is a definite loss for the Bills but again, I think Poyer's best days are behind him and just watch out for how many games he actually plays next season.  NFL football is full of monsters and to be over 30 in this league?  Those weekend bumps and bruises add up to missed games.

So, a playoff team who wants that player who will give them that edge will opt for a player whose “best days are behind him” with the likelihood that he’ll miss multiple games with age-related injury. For that, they’ll pay the big bucks that the Bills won’t (or can’t). 
You may be right, but to me it doesn’t sound like a winning strategy. 
Under Beane, the Bills frequently employ the ‘rent-a-player-for-a-year’ tactic, but they’re usually able to get them for a bargain price. 

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is only 6 months younger than Tremaine Edmunds. He is the definition of a one contract guy because he will be 29 by the time he becomes eligible for a 2nd one. He finally produced in college at his third school, age 24, and good for him. He is probably now going to be drafted which a year ago was a pipe dream. But no way is he even worth thinking about before the throw away rounds. He will probably be announced by some team mascot hanging off a zip wire about halfway through day 3.....

Think an adequate QB helped his production? You can't overlook his stats. I'm not saying to draft him on day one, but do your homework for later rounds. I don't begrudge him for leaving UB knowing that NFL level players were slotted before him. At Purdue, O'Connell was a decent QB who delivered him the ball and produced

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Think an adequate QB helped his production? You can't overlook his stats. I'm not saying to draft him on day one, but do your homework for later rounds. I don't begrudge him for leaving UB knowing that NFL level players were slotted before him. At Purdue, O'Connell was a decent QB who delivered him the ball and produced

 

I'm saying he is a nice story. But you have to look at traits as well as production. He is a day 3 player. Is he worth a look there? Possibly. But I don't think he is going to be a big producer in the NFL. He can be a role player on a team somewhere, and credit to him for getting to that point.