Strong vs. Weak Positional Groups - Draft

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So we better score 2 olineman in the first 3 picks. This organization does not have the luxury to keep ignoring Josh.

I totally agree. And they better be fighting for starting roles. Don't want to hear "need time to develop"

[LABILLBACKER]

26 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I totally agree. And they better be fighting for starting roles. Don't want to hear "need time to develop"

Yeah I absolutely despise McD's philosophy of sitting on rookies and letting them marinate. Andy simply let's them jump right in to see what he's got while developing. The days of holding a clipboard are long over.

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My 12 first rounds picks at this stage are (not got my board infront of me so not necessarily in order):

 

Jalen Carter,  Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Paris Johnson, Joey Porter, Peter Skoronski, Bijan Robinson, Myles Murphy, Devon Witherspoon, Jordan Addison, Bryce Young and then I go back and forth on Christian Gonzalez. 

 

Worth saying as well that only Carter (now complete with asterisk) and Anderson have 'elite' or 'top 10' grades (for comparison I had six guys with top 10 grades last year). 

 

It's a very underwhelming class. 

Even Mel Kiper said yesterday that this year's draft overall is weak. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yeah I absolutely despise McD's philosophy of sitting on rookies and letting them marinate. Andy simply let's them jump right in to see what he's got while developing. The days of holding a clipboard are long over.

Even Mel Kiper said yesterday that this year's draft overall is weak. 

I do too…. Knowing this is more reason to draft 1 OL in the first 3 rds and another 1 or 2 later in the draft.  Also adding 1-2 experienced FAs.  
 

I wouldn’t count on 2 OLs drafted in the first 3 rounds to play and help for a year or two.  

[John from Riverside]

Running back just feels like a strong position this year it feels like you can get a running back in the late part of this draft that can be productive
 

And I say that having a love-hate relationship with drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round

[Ayjent]

5 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

He is to Josh Allen what Harold Miner was to Michael Jordan. I’m getting tired of the comparisons there.

I am a UF fan and Richardson doesn’t have 1% of the want to win attitude of Josh Allen.  He’s certainly comparable athletically but that’s where it begins and ends. I saw a kid that couldn’t put together a complete game and would get rattled as hell and not be able to rebound mentally. He could be electric but is a late round prospect at best that will get picked in the first.  The team picking him that high will wish they hadn’t. I expect him to fall as teams evaluate him closer, but not too much. 
 

He’s terribly inconsistent passing and doesn’t have great pocket presence. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Ayjent

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yeah I absolutely despise McD's philosophy of sitting on rookies and letting them marinate. Andy simply let's them jump right in to see what he's got while developing. The days of holding a clipboard are long over.

Even Mel Kiper said yesterday that this year's draft overall is weak. 

 

Maybe Beane just doesn't draft guys who are good enough to contribute as rookies.  

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Vorhees as a day 2 guy. I like Jarrett Patterson and Braeden Daniels as day 3 guys. I also like Cody Mauch and Matthew Bergeron as day 2 college tackles whose NFL fit is likely inside. Think Schmitz and Tippman are day 2 guys who will start as rookies inside. Then Wypler (Ohio St), Stromberg (Arkansas) and Forsyth (Oregon) as centers who could go between round 3 and round 5. 

 

It's a decent group of interior line guys who I think can be solid NFL players.

 

 

You should add Atonio Mafi to your  IOL list. 

[SCBills]

6 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

He is to Josh Allen what Harold Miner was to Michael Jordan. I’m getting tired of the comparisons there.

Theres actually two Josh Allen’s in this years draft, if you haven’t heard. 
 

That comp is out there about Will Levis and Anthony Richardson.  
 

Regardless of what anyone thinks about this draft, there’s potentially 5 QB’s that could go Top 10… that alone will make the draft hyped. 
 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by SCBills

[Fan in Chicago]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree on offensive tackles in the draft. I disagree on interior offensive line. I think that is one of the stronger position groups in this class in rounds 2 through 5. 

 

In rounds 2-5 I'd want to be going IOL, TE, LB and possibly safety. They are the day 2 and 3 strengths of this class IMO. 

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

So, this would be a good year to trade out of the first round and get additional Day 2-3 picks?

Edited March 2, 2023 by Fan in Chicago

[Yantha]

I really hate to say it... and I personally was hoping to draft the future at OL, but I honestly don't see ONE OT outside of the first round that I'd want to draft, and we would have to hope for a top 20 prospect to drop to us.

 

OG?  That position is thin....  very thin.  I'm not seeing even one I'd be super happy with.

 

I actually like a number of centers that could be had in round 2 or 3, but we need guards and an OT far more.  

 

So.... again I hate to say it but I'm not expecting much with respect to fixin the OL issues with this draft.  We need some luck in the first round.

 

And for those of us who lament the Bills' defensive drafting time and time again, this draft class is MUCH stronger with defensive prospects, including safety, corner, linebacker, and even right across the D-line....

 

Prospect-wise, we might be looking at a "throw your beer" draft like the one below where the BPAs might not include any O-line options at all...  OR we'd be reaching for lesser talent.

Round 1:  WR Zay Flowers

Round 2:  BPA Pass Rusher

Round 3:  BPA Cornerback like Hodges-Tomlinson

Round 4:  BPA Runningback 

Round 5:  Linebacker Dorian Williams

Round 6:  Safety Trey Dean III

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Yantha said:

 

I think the vast majority of FA money needs to be invested into TWO top O-line free agents.  Let's shore up Right Tackle and ONE Guard spot, so that we won't be forced to REACH in this draft for O-linemen, and failing to add BPA talent at other positions of need.

 

Looking forward to the Free Agency flurry, and hope we come away with TWO established, dominant O-linemen.

 

 

Two FA OLs? Yeah, sure. Reasonable.

 

"Two top O-line free agents"? Nope. Can't see it, myself. Too many other needs.  And plenty of other ways to address the problem.

 

I'd expect them to draft someone fairly high, as you suggest. I'd hope it would be in the first two rounds, three at the outside.

 

And I'd guess they'd bring in maybe another lower-level FA OL.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Solomon Grundy]

I'm liking Charlie Jones the more I watch and read about him. He simply doesn't drop many passes. He had a cup of coffee at UB before going to Iowa/Purdue.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Chaos said:

You should add Atonio Mafi to your  IOL list. 

 

Yea his name is on my long list, had a good Shrine Bowl week but haven't looked at him in any depth yet.

7 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

So, this would be a good year to trade out of the first round and get additional Day 2-3 picks?

 

Possibly. But I don't think it is a great draft in the middle either. Personally I think it is a draft to identify the guys you like and be willing to move all around the board up and down to get 4 or 5 guys you have really targeted. Rather than sit and wait for the draft to come to you. That might mean down in round 1 but then up again in rounds 2 and 3 or something like that.

Edited March 2, 2023 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, SCBills said:

Regardless of what anyone thinks about this draft, there’s potentially 5 QB’s that could go Top 10… that alone will make the draft hyped. 

 

Who is the 5th? 

 

I think Young, Stroud and Levis will. Richardson possibly could (not sure I see it but there are a lot of teams in that top 10 that have punted on finding a QB of the future multiple times and you figure might force it - Houston, Indy, Carolina, Atlanta). Who is the 5th? Hooker? McKee?

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Yantha said:

 

Round 6:  Safety Trey Dean III

 

I'd be delighted if Dean lasted to the Bills pick in the 6th. I do think he is a day 3 guy but I figured he'd go earlier on day 3.... that's certainly how I have him graded. I think you can start him in some packages right now, he probably needs time to become a full time starter, still misdiagnoses a bit too much in zone concepts to throw him out there as an every down starter, but his ability to play as a matchup guy in man coverages from the safety position is a weapon and I imagine it being sufficiently coveted that he comes off the board a bit before the 6th round. 

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Vorhees as a day 2 guy. I like Jarrett Patterson and Braeden Daniels as day 3 guys. I also like Cody Mauch and Matthew Bergeron as day 2 college tackles whose NFL fit is likely inside. Think Schmitz and Tippman are day 2 guys who will start as rookies inside. Then Wypler (Ohio St), Stromberg (Arkansas) and Forsyth (Oregon) as centers who could go between round 3 and round 5. 

 

It's a decent group of interior line guys who I think can be solid NFL players.

 

 

Everything about this draft just screams trade down to me especially given the areas that we need to address if we could come away with this with 2 2nd round picks I’d be happy and even happier if we could get a third for Ed oliver who I don’t think we’re gonna be able to resign

Edited March 2, 2023 by John from Riverside

[Ayjent]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd be delighted if Dean lasted to the Bills pick in the 6th. I do think he is a day 3 guy but I figured he'd go earlier on day 3.... that's certainly how I have him graded. I think you can start him in some packages right now, he probably needs time to become a full time starter, still misdiagnoses a bit too much in zone concepts to throw him out there as an every down starter, but his ability to play as a matchup guy in man coverages from the safety position is a weapon and I imagine it being sufficiently coveted that he comes off the board a bit before the 6th round. 

That matches what I’ve seen from him throughout his time as a Gator.  He was part of a secondary that was inconsistent but he would flash some really good plays and then some really poor ones.  I don’t think the coaching has been great at UF defensively the past several years, so it’s hard to know how much it is the player vs what they’re being taught. Last year’s staff was an upgrade from Mullen’s but still a bit underwhelming.  I can’t see McD giving him much playing time unless forced and even then they’ve shown a desire to pickup street vets instead of starting a young guy.  

[Ayjent]

Two players on the Gators that I do like are Ventrell Miller and Justin Shorter who are in this year’s draft. Miller just made plays and had the instincts to diagnose and be in position, especially against the run.  When the Gator D played with any momentum he was typically at the heart of it. He did struggle with injuries, however.  I think he is a day 3 pick but definitely a solid player.   Shorter is most likely destined for UDFA but is low risk, high reward guy with a big body, good speed, and good hands.  He can be a bit stiff in his routes but he is a very capable blocker.  He really played with terrible passing QBs the last two years, especially on intermediate routes.  I think with good QB play there might be a lot more there. 

[Yantha]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two FA OLs? Yeah, sure. Reasonable.

 

"Two top O-line free agents"? Nope. Can't see it, myself. Too many other needs.  And plenty of other ways to address the problem.

 

I'd expect them to draft someone fairly high, as you suggest. I'd hope it would be in the first two rounds, three at the outside.

 

And I'd guess they'd bring in maybe another lower-level FA OL.

 

 

 

You a very likely right about what the Bills org will do.

 

Perhaps not the best way to win a superbowl, but that's also the reality of Cap I guess.  But they will save with letting Singletary, Edmunds, and Poyer go, so hope fully SOME of the savings. go to OL.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

You a very likely right about what the Bills org will do.

 

Perhaps not the best way to win a superbowl, but that's also the reality of Cap I guess.  But they will save with letting Singletary, Edmunds, and Poyer go, so hope fully SOME of the savings. go to OL.

 

I think they need at least one good FA guard. I'd be aiming top of the market myself, Seumalo would be my target.