Strong vs. Weak Positional Groups - Draft

[Yantha]

Hi All,

 

I hesitate to start another thread (I've started a few in recent days), but I'm putting the question out to the fellow draft geeks.  While I've been looking at the draft class, a few things have been standing out that makes me rethink the approach to the FREE AGENCY and draft.

1.  Runningback is a pretty strong group in my opinion, with quality backs projected to be available fairly deep, even through round 6 or so.  I think Singletary has to WALK, let Cook get a kick at the can, with Hines and a mid round draft pick nipping at their heels.

2.  WR seems pretty good through round 3.  I agree with Beane that we can trust Davis to rebound, and I REALLY like Shakir.  I'd add an AFFORDABLE free agent to the mix, and see if there is a quality WR somewhere in the draft.

3.  This draft is very strong with Safeties.   Poyer really wants out from what it seems...  so Safety is a must draft EARLY or nab a quality replacement in the FA.

4.  Linebacker looks pretty strong as well, through rounds 3-4, so Tremaine could be replaced via the draft.

5.  Backup QB:  I like a few options as deep as round 6.

6.  Pass Rush:  LOTS of great options in this draft, very deep.

7.  DT:  Not a huge need for the team, but some late round talent available.

 

Which brings me to the main point.  I like quite a few OTs, OGs, and OCs (BUT NOT VERY MANY, deeper in the draft!!!).  I think this is a weaker draft for O-linemen than what we'd like.  Considering the many teams in need of O-linemen, I feel that it will be slim pickings for teams looking for immediate starters, especially outside of round 3.

 

I think that it would be pretty irresponsible for Beane to roll the dice on getting lucky and landing more than one TOP O-lineman prospect.  We arguably need THREE new starters and we will not get all of those in the draft.

 

I think the vast majority of FA money needs to be invested into TWO top O-line free agents.  Let's shore up Right Tackle and ONE Guard spot, so that we won't be forced to REACH in this draft for O-linemen, and failing to add BPA talent at other positions of need.

 

Looking forward to the Free Agency flurry, and hope we come away with TWO established, dominant O-linemen.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Yantha

[GunnerBill]

I agree on offensive tackles in the draft. I disagree on interior offensive line. I think that is one of the stronger position groups in this class in rounds 2 through 5. 

 

In rounds 2-5 I'd want to be going IOL, TE, LB and possibly safety. They are the day 2 and 3 strengths of this class IMO. 

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

[Royale with Cheese]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree on offensive tackles in the draft. I disagree on interior offensive line. I think that is one of the stronger position groups in this class in rounds 2 through 5. 

 

In rounds 2-5 I'd want to be going IOL, TE, LB and possibly safety. They are the day 2 and 3 strengths of this class IMO. 

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

 

There is zero hype on this years draft.  It's either I'm not watching TV or the big networks aren't covering it as much.  I thought this might be the case that they don't have really a lot of names.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

There is zero hype on this years draft.  It's either I'm not watching TV or the big networks aren't covering it as much.  I thought this might be the case that they don't have really a lot of names.

 

 

The combine is this week.........it used to be in February every year........it's later than in the past because the season runs later now.........and after the combine is when "Path to the Draft" and other network versions of that show start.    There will not be less hype....online you can find a new mock draft created by a draft "expert" about every 6 hours.   But they need the combine to create the numbers and hype.    I suspect the draft rags will start coming out in the next 10 days.

[LEBills]

 

32 minutes ago, Yantha said:

Hi All,

 

I hesitate to start another thread (I've started a few in recent days), but I'm putting the question out to the fellow draft geeks.  While I've been looking at the draft class, a few things have been standing out that makes me rethink the approach to the FREE AGENCY and draft.

1.  Runningback is a pretty strong group in my opinion, with quality backs projected to be available fairly deep, even through round 6 or so.  I think Singletary has to WALK, let Cook get a kick at the can, with Hines and a mid round draft pick nipping at their heels.

2.  WR seems pretty good through round 3.  I agree with Beane that we can trust Davis to rebound, and I REALLY like Shakir.  I'd add an AFFORDABLE free agent to the mix, and see if there is a quality WR somewhere in the draft.

3.  This draft is very strong with Safeties.   Poyer really wants out from what it seems...  so Safety is a must draft EARLY or nab a quality replacement in the FA.

4.  Linebacker looks pretty strong as well, through rounds 3-4, so Tremaine could be replaced via the draft.

5.  Backup QB:  I like a few options as deep as round 6.

6.  Pass Rush:  LOTS of great options in this draft, very deep.

7.  DT:  Not a huge need for the team, but some late round talent available.

 

Which brings me to the main point.  I like quite a few OTs, OGs, and OCs (BUT NOT VERY MANY, deeper in the draft!!!).  I think this is a weaker draft for O-linemen than what we'd like.  Considering the many teams in need of O-linemen, I feel that it will be slim pickings for teams looking for immediate starters, especially outside of round 3.

 

I think that it would be pretty irresponsible for Beane to roll the dice on getting lucky and landing more than one TOP O-lineman prospect.  We arguably need THREE new starters and we will not get all of those in the draft.

 

I think the vast majority of FA money needs to be invested into TWO top O-line free agents.  Let's shore up Right Tackle and ONE Guard spot, so that we won't be forced to REACH in this draft for O-linemen, and failing to add BPA talent at other positions of need.

 

Looking forward to the Free Agency flurry, and hope we come away with TWO established, dominant O-linemen.

I think it will be hard to bring in two high priced OL FA. Best we probably can hope for is one and it will probably be a guard since their contracts are lower than comparable talent OT. I don’t think Beane wants to be done with Spencer Brown either. 
 

As far as the draft goes, I think it is probably gonna get weird as the high end talent is minimal and some of the best players are at lesser valued positions. I think we see Will Levis, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and CJ stroud (in that order) all wind up as first rounder QBs as teams don’t feel like they are passing on high end talent elsewhere to take them.
 

WRs I think we will get the top ones off the board relatively early and then a gap before the next tier starts to go. If I had to guess Quentin Johnson, Addison, Zay Flowers and  Jalen Hyatt will go in the first. Tyler Scott will be the 4th or 5th WR off the board. WR to me is a much weaker class than years prior tho I do like several projected later round guys more than those who went that time last year.

 

Tight end is another low position value but higher talent level in this draft than we have seen in recent years. Kincaid, Mayer, Musgrave, Washington, Kuntz.

 

OC and OG I think the Bills certainly can get a 3-4 round guy who could be a good starter eventually. Broeker, Braeden Daniels, Levengood, Forsyth. Actually like this class very much.

 

OT is weaker but again their will be players that could start over Spencer Brown if they go that way early enough in the draft.

 

Running back may be the deepest position in the draft but again, such low value. Pass on Bijan Robinson even if he is there at 27.

 

I think it’s a pretty solid class all around for the defensive positions. If you need a good player in round 2 or 3 there will be one there regardless of if they are a CB, S, DL, LB. But overall the high end guys are pretty limited imo to a few DL players. 
 

It certainly is going to be an interesting offseason. Once FA comes and goes we may have a better idea of what the Bills will do but my recommendation to them is to trade back since the strength of many positions the Bills need are in the day 2 and 3.

[Bill from NYC]

51 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

Any draft in which Anthony Richardson (and his career 14 starts iirc) is talked about as a potential top 10 pick is VERY weak.  

[MiltonWaddams]

18 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Any draft in which Anthony Richardson (and his career 14 starts iirc) is talked about as a potential top 10 pick is VERY weak.  

He is to Josh Allen what Harold Miner was to Michael Jordan. I’m getting tired of the comparisons there.

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The combine is this week.........it used to be in February every year........it's later than in the past because the season runs later now.........and after the combine is when "Path to the Draft" and other network versions of that show start.    There will not be less hype....online you can find a new mock draft created by a draft "expert" about every 6 hours.   But they need the combine to create the numbers and hype.    I suspect the draft rags will start coming out in the next 10 days.

Joel Buchsbaum was THE best imo. I'm not completely sure how he did it but he was so good that GMs would seek him out from what I understand.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Joel Buchsbaum was THE best imo. I'm not completely sure how he did it but he was so good that GMs would seek him out from what I understand.

 

 

His guide was a great resource when info was much more scarce.   When he passed it was inevitable that PFW was finished.   I think there is a market for printed draft info in September as a guide for following college football........and again in Nov-Jan for fans of teams circling the drain..........but that would require work.     The draft guide magazines now are very late to the party and don't have much of a runway to get sold before the draft.

[Solomon Grundy]

If I were to help this team in the draft, I would draft Darnell Walker(TENN) at 27. The RT needs to be fixed immediately and he didn't give up a sack last season. If he's gone, I'm moving down but not too far(early 2nd) because I still want to fix the RT position and get Carter Warren (PITT). With my other 2nd Rd pick, I'm taking Tyler Scott(CINN WR). This guy can fly and has RAC ability. 3rd rd, I'm getting my center. Preferably Joe Tippman (WISC). NFL comparison is Mitch Morse, nuff said. Spencer Brown and Walker/Warren will fight it out for starter. Bates will stay at guard. This is my armchair GM thoughts. 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree on offensive tackles in the draft. I disagree on interior offensive line. I think that is one of the stronger position groups in this class in rounds 2 through 5. 

 

In rounds 2-5 I'd want to be going IOL, TE, LB and possibly safety. They are the day 2 and 3 strengths of this class IMO. 

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

You don’t have 12!! I’m calling BS!! Name them 😏

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree on offensive tackles in the draft. I disagree on interior offensive line. I think that is one of the stronger position groups in this class in rounds 2 through 5. 

 

In rounds 2-5 I'd want to be going IOL, TE, LB and possibly safety. They are the day 2 and 3 strengths of this class IMO. 

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

I’m happy to hear that a draft expert like you thinks that there  are some IOL that can be found in rounds 2-4 that could help the Bills.  I just signed up for Caddy’s Cutups - which Gs do you like besides Torrence and Avila so that I can have a look?

Edited March 1, 2023 by OldTimer1960

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree on offensive tackles in the draft. I disagree on interior offensive line. I think that is one of the stronger position groups in this class in rounds 2 through 5. 

 

In rounds 2-5 I'd want to be going IOL, TE, LB and possibly safety. They are the day 2 and 3 strengths of this class IMO. 

 

I think it is a weak class overall. One of the worst first rounds I have seen. The fewest 1st round grades I have ever had while grading (since 2014) is 16. At the moment I have 12. And I am not totally sold on one of those. 

How many of those 11 or 12 with first round grades are QBs?

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

How many of those 11 or 12 with first round grades are QBs?

 

1. Although in fairness I have a fair bit more to do on QBs. Especially Stroud. 

[LABILLBACKER]

So we better score 2 olineman in the first 3 picks. This organization does not have the luxury to keep ignoring Josh.

[GunnerBill]

56 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m happy to hear that a draft expert like you thinks that there  are some IOL that can be found in rounds 2-4 that could help the Bills.  I just signed up for Caddy’s Cutups - which Gs do you like besides Torrence and Avila so that I can have a look?

 

I like Vorhees as a day 2 guy. I like Jarrett Patterson and Braeden Daniels as day 3 guys. I also like Cody Mauch and Matthew Bergeron as day 2 college tackles whose NFL fit is likely inside. Think Schmitz and Tippman are day 2 guys who will start as rookies inside. Then Wypler (Ohio St), Stromberg (Arkansas) and Forsyth (Oregon) as centers who could go between round 3 and round 5. 

 

It's a decent group of interior line guys who I think can be solid NFL players.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Vorhees as a day 2 guy. I like Jarrett Patterson and Braeden Daniels as day 3 guys. I also like Cody Mauch and Matthew Bergeron as day 2 college tackles whose NFL fit is likely inside. Think Schmitz and Tippman are day 2 guys who will start as rookies inside. Then Wypler (Ohio St), Stromberg (Arkansas) and Forsyth (Oregon) as centers who could go between round 3 and round 5. 

 

It's a decent group of interior line guys who I think can be solid NFL players.

 

 

Thank you and that is encouraging.  I’ll have to take a look at those guys.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You don’t have 12!! I’m calling BS!! Name them 😏

 

My 12 first rounds picks at this stage are (not got my board infront of me so not necessarily in order):

 

Jalen Carter,  Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Paris Johnson, Joey Porter, Peter Skoronski, Bijan Robinson, Myles Murphy, Devon Witherspoon, Jordan Addison, Bryce Young and then I go back and forth on Christian Gonzalez. 

 

Worth saying as well that only Carter (now complete with asterisk) and Anderson have 'elite' or 'top 10' grades (for comparison I had six guys with top 10 grades last year). 

 

It's a very underwhelming class. 

[Success]

Good thread, and a good discussion to have.  Without a doubt, my worst fear is that offensive line in general is the "it" position group of this draft, and that we see an early run on linemen.  So many teams have that as one of their top needs.

 

I know so little about the college game & who the good players are - but I do hope we go for guards in the early rounds. While we're hardly "set" at tackle, I just feel like Brown's best days are ahead.  The injury could have really set him back last season.

 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Joel Buchsbaum was THE best imo. I'm not completely sure how he did it but he was so good that GMs would seek him out from what I understand.

LOVED reading Buschbaum’s analysis.  I think he had a lot of insider connections in the scouting community, but I also believe that he did some of his own analysis.  I also used to really enjoy Russ Lande’s GM JR.  Lande scouted in the NFL and, I believe took a position with the CFL Montreal Allouettes.  Lande’s analysis covered a few pages for teach of the highly rated guys.