In Defense of McDermott

[The Jokeman]

9 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

The Chiefs after losing the Super Bowl to Bucs completely changed their whole offensive line.  After Chiefs lost to the Bengals in AFC championship game made wholesale changed to their WRs including trading a top 5 WR and drafting and starting a 7th round RB.

That's because the RB they took in the 1st round a few years prior has not lived up to expectations. 

[GerstAusGosheim]

Unless he wins a SB, his legacy will be passing on Patrick Mahomes, thinking Nate Peterman was the answer, and 13 seconds. 

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

You sound spoiled

McD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>chan

 

Were Chiefs fans through the 90's "spoiled" when Marty led them to over 100 wins, yet won only 3 playoff wins in 11 seasons?

 

How about the Bengals for all of Marvin Lewis's tenure?  7 playoff appearances, 0-7.

 

Spoiled---that's ridiculous.  

 

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

My standard is as long as we’re getting an opportunity to win you don’t sit there and B word about everything

If team starts losing, then you make changes 

Note nobody that does anything with football operations does what these fans think should be done

 

Nobody that earns their living doing this starts making wholesale changes to a winning team

They have had bad exits from the playoffs 4 years in a row. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

That's because the RB they took in the 1st round a few years prior has not lived up to expectations. 

It's weird they get praised for starting a 7th rd RB in the SB...because they whiffed on a 1st rd RB. Not all picks pan out, even 1st round picks.

[T master]

17 hours ago, section122 said:

In light of the Frazier news and all of the whining about McDermott this offseason I wanted to shed some light on the success of the Bills.  Reading this board it seems like the consensus is McD is on the hot seat and needs to figure it out soon.  Time to put that idiotic nonsense to rest. (Also if Florio says it, it most likely isn't true...)

 

Since 2017 when McD took over, the Bills have the 3rd best record in the NFL behind only the Chiefs and the Saints. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/team-records-since-2017

 

Since 2017 the Bills have the 8th most playoff WINS https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-playoff-wins-since-2017

 

Since 2020 when Allen took off, the Bills have the 5th most playoff WINS https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-playoff-wins-since-2020

 

Since 2020 the Bills are tied with the 2nd most playoff games played https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-playoff-wins-since-2020

 

Since 2017 The Bills have given up the 3rd least points per game https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-defensive-ratings-since-2017

 

Since he took over the Bills have been a top 3 regular season team and a top 5 playoff team by these measures.

 

Here are some more ranking him against contemporaries:

 

Amongst all active coaches he has the 7th best win % https://www.footballdb.com/coaches/index.html?sort=pct ahead of names like John Harbaugh and Sean McVay

 

He has the 21st best winning % OF ALL TIME https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/

 

He has the 46th most playoff wins OF ALL TIME (same link as above)

 

Of those 46, he has the 6th most wins with coaches with the same or less experience OF ALL TIME

 

Did you know?

 

There are only 38 coaches who have coached in 10 or more playoff games? McD has 9

 

Of those 38 only Sean McVay has done that in 6 or fewer seasons.

 

There are only 2 active coaches in the NFL with more than 1 super bowl win (Reid and Belichick)  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_National_Football_League_head_coaches#:~:text=Belichick also has the most,Andy Reid%2C and Sean McVay.

 

There are only 8 active coaches who have won a super bowl period.

 

Give the man his flowers.  He is a great coach and we are lucky to have him.

 

 

BUT BUT BUT HE DIDN'T CALL A TIME OUT AT THE RIGHT TIME HE SUCKS OMG FIRE EVERY BODY !!! 

[Fan in Chicago]

17 hours ago, section122 said:

 

Give the man his flowers.  He is a great coach and we are lucky to have him.

 

"In Defense of McDermott"

I see what you did there. Cute 

[TheFunPolice]

I love the idea of McDermott calling plays on defense. He's really good at it, and it was why he got this job. 

 

 

[Logic]

The problem seems simple to me:

After so many years in the NFL wilderness, the Bills finally got good. They finally got a franchise QB and a good defense and a good front office and coaching staff.

They ascended from Wild Card loss, to AFC Championship loss, to narrow, improbable Divisional round loss, and then on to 2022, where the entire NFL world and Vegas anointed them Super Bowl favorites. All we heard for months was how they had the best roster in the NFL, how they were shoe-ins for the Super Bowl, the best team in the AFC, etc, etc. Last we saw Josh Allen, he was throwing non-stop fireballs, and the Bills looked unstoppable.

All of this created the expectation in Bills fans that it was "Super Bowl trophy or Bust!" from here on out. Well, funny thing about that...it's only "Super Bowl trophy" for one team every year, and it's "bust" for the other 31 teams. Unfortunately, the path to a championship is rarely a linear one. That is, there are usually ups and downs. Leaps forward and steps back. Unexpected setbacks. Random, unpredictable factors of chaos that make a mockery of the best laid plans. Things like, oh, I dunno, the star quarterback throwing on an injured elbow all year and a player's heart stopping in the middle of the field in front of all his teammates.

I'm not here to make excuses, only to point out that many Bills fans seem convinced that ANYTHING less than a Super Bowl championship must mean that coach McDermott is a failure. That's ridiculous. Patently absurd. He's a top 10 coach in the NFL by any measure, and probably more like top 5. If the Bills fired him, he'd have another head coaching job instantly. 

Does he need to be better in big postseason games against elite opponents? Yes. Would I love to see some fresh blood brought in on both sides of the ball in terms of assistants and coordinators? Sure. But despite all of that, is McDermott a very, very good NFL coach? Of course he is. 

[nedboy7]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

The problem seems simple to me:

After so many years in the NFL wilderness, the Bills finally got good. They finally got a franchise QB and a good defense and a good front office and coaching staff.

They ascended from Wild Card loss, to AFC Championship loss, to narrow, improbable Divisional round loss, and then on to 2022, where the entire NFL world and Vegas anointed them Super Bowl favorites. All we heard for months was how they had the best roster in the NFL, how they were shoe-ins for the Super Bowl, the best team in the AFC, etc, etc. Last we saw Josh Allen, he was throwing non-stop fireballs, and the Bills looked unstoppable.

All of this created the expectation in Bills fans that it was "Super Bowl trophy or Bust!" from here on out. Well, funny thing about that...it's only "Super Bowl trophy" for one team every year, and it's "bust" for the other 31 teams. Unfortunately, the path to a championship is rarely a linear one. That is, there are usually ups and downs. Leaps forward and steps back. Unexpected setbacks. Random, unpredictable factors of chaos that make a mockery of the best laid plans. Things like, oh, I dunno, the star quarterback throwing on an injured elbow all year and a player's heart stopping in the middle of the field in front of all his teammates.

I'm not here to make excuses, only to point out that many Bills fans seem convinced that ANYTHING less than a Super Bowl championship must mean that coach McDermott is a failure. That's ridiculous. Patently absurd. He's a top 10 coach in the NFL by any measure, and probably more like top 5. If the Bills fired him, he'd have another head coaching job instantly. 

Does he need to be better in big postseason games against elite opponents? Yes. Would I love to see some fresh blood brought in on both sides of the ball in terms of assistants and coordinators? Sure. But despite all of that, is McDermott a very, very good NFL coach? Of course he is. 

 

So reasonable that it makes me think Watts himself wrote that. 

[hondo in seattle]

People said Tony Dungy couldn't win big games, and then he won a Lombardi.

People said Andy Reid couldn't win big games, and then he won a Lombardi.

 

People said Sean McDermott couldn't win big games...

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

We don't know regarding McD on the D, we simply don't.  Ha hasn't come clean on that.  Anything beyond that is pure speculation.  

 

As to the Carolina connection, if the players we've gotten were dumpster diving and otherwise bad, how can the front office people be lauded?  

 

Other than Beane, who is an OJT GM with questionable competencies, who else have we pilfered and why are they "top notch?" 

 

As to Holcomb, that's fine, but for anyone claiming that he's "just the 'Sr. Defensive Assistant'," let's not blame him then should things go south defensively.  McD then squarely shoulders the blame.  So far he's avoided blame for everything related to coaching practically speaking.  

 

 

It’s ALL speculation right now 

everything except no Fraser

[ExiledInIllinois]

20 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

McVay and Harbaugh have won SBs.....without a Josh Allen on the roster period.

 

Once a team starts winning their division regular, the 13 in seasons aren't going to be how a HC is judged--as they shouldn't be.  Conference Championship game and SB appearances are the standard now.

Until those PSLs kick in and you're dreaming of "TheDrought." 

 

😉 

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It’s ALL speculation right now 

everything except no Fraser

 

Right, so why are people arguing that it's not, or at least from the premise that it isn't?  

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by PBF81

[section122]

14 hours ago, DrPJax said:

     Great point and way to cut thru the BS ( forgive the pun!).   The big issue is most of those HC’s talked about , did not have a unicorn , star athlete the size of a lineman with the quick twitch of a RB/TE type player , who happens to be able to throw a ball 80 yards in the air and drop it in the wr hands , and also has proven to be very durable as he didn’t miss a single game this year. ( all other afc east teams started at least 3 qbs during this past season).  

     

     6 years of mcd and this year he suffered losses to Miami and the jets ( with a rookie ad 2nd year hc), and squeaked out a wild card game AT HOME against the fins prior to seeing some of the least inspiring play in a playoff home loss the following week.  His playoff record stands now at 4-5 , hardly inspiring confidence for the future. Two of those  playoff  losses he squandered leads , with the all time debacle being 13 seconds.  Just take a look at the still pics of how the D was  set up at  critical times in those games, it is inexcusable and unexplainable. In the Cincy 3rd and 4 yards  play , tre is 8 yards off the wr , and with wr’s in trips to the right , not a single Bills defender is even in the frame! Look at a still pic of the D in the final 13 seconds game and it was even worse.  In his last 3 playoff losses the d gave up 107 points and 1403 yards , and each team that beat us was promptly defeated in the next game. McD touted how much they learned from the KC game , yet we saw the D fail at PLAYOFF time again. 

 

      I admire Sean as a man , but his playoff performance has suffered from coaching gaffs!  Kelly was a hof QB, and having watched his entire career even attending SB’S 27&28 , without a doubt Jim had no where near the all around talent Allen has, and it’s not even close.  We saw what 17 years were like without a true franchise QB.   To not even make a single SB appearance at this  point with a true FRANCHISE QB, while watching Mahomes ‘who has only been in the league 1 more year than Josh already win  2 , is a red flag concerning this coaching regime.

 

     As you stated, other coaches have won with less talent, and it should be a warning losing to Miami and the jets this past year.  Arguably Philly , Cincy, ( with less tenured coaches) look more advanced , and the 49ers , and KC aren’t going away either. The Bills went from preseason  SB favs, favored in every game this year , to now having a DC “take a year off” , while possibly facing losing edmunds & Poyer , with Hyde and Tre aging and a d line rotation that has failed to develop impact players.  Meanwhile, our 120 mil$ star is coming off an ACL ( and frankly seems more interested in his future social media career on instagram, twitch etc , than being around Buffalo & was the only player i saw not visibly all that disturbed by the Cincy loss ).  Additionally Beane supposedly can make limited moves because of the cap. Analysts like Bucky Brooks have  stated this team is at a cross roads and may be regressing with no offensive identity, and Florio & Sims echoed the same.

      Something is wrong with the process;  while personally I’m not disappointed by Frazier taking a sabbatical, it comes at a strange time out of the blue, and it just seems like organizationally something is amiss.  Like the old saying, where there’s smoke , there is usually fire. All those stats posted about prior coaches trying to justify Mcd’s performance, ring hollow if he has another similar failure in the playoffs, or possibly given all the positional coaching changes, failing to even make the playoffs.  Perhaps all the changes are for the good , but I’m at the “show me” point with this staff.. 

 

     It’s even hard to really feel enthused about the draft because we have seen mcd’S reluctance to use rookies , even as  we witnessed  rookies for KC contribute to a SB , and all around the league we watched as rookies contributed on other teams. Mcd is looking somewhat dated regarding his philosophy with rookies, and while he has created  a good team culture, that alone has proven to not be the main ingredient leading to  a championship. Greg Cosell of NFL films and a weekly guest/ supporter on the show with Brown & Tasker, called the offense “josh & Diggs , an average at best o line, with no commitment to a run game, and a bunch of other guys at wr”.   Many are recognizing this  roster is lacking talent and lacks offensive creativity compared TO TEAMS WHO HAVE PLAYOFF SUCCESS.  

 

     This is shaping up to be a critical year for Mcd; without Frazier , it’s Sean’s D and I believe his seat is getting very warm.  Unfortunately the schedule looks rough, even losing a home game to London.  You are right, this HC ‘s success is now only fairly measured by his ability to get beyond the plateau, and win a championship. He can’t continue failing that next  step while having the benefit of a true , unicorn franchise QB, as that type of unique athlete remains around for a very limited time.  Regardless of all the rationalizations, most of those coaches didn’t have a Josh Allen , and that may actually shorten Seans time to be seen being successful, as without that SB win he is wasting career years of a phenomenal QB.  (best wishes Mr Weo, stay healthy , wishing you joy with every case as time flies too fast, T’s & P’s  for your continued success!)

 

I want to go paragraph by paragraph to address your points:

 

1. You talk about each other AFC east team starting at least 3 qbs.  The Bills won the division by 4.5 games.  In a 17 game season!  Secondly Josh may not have missed a game but he was clearly hampered by the elbow injury.

 

2. You talk about losing to the Jets and the Dolphins.  They were division games which are always tough.  Should we talk about the Chiefs losing to the 4-12-1 Colts?  Should we talk about the Eagles losing to the 8-8-1 Commanders?  Should we talk about the 49ers loss to the 5-12 Broncos?  The Bills finished 13-3, it's not like they struggled all year.  13-3 is good for the 2nd most wins behind the Chiefs and the Eagles.  You know the Super Bowl representatives....

 

3. You really want to compare the Kelly era Bills to this team?  Does this version of the Bills have a Bruce Smith?  Does this version have a Thurman Thomas?  I agree Allen is more physically talented and I'll even say better than Kelly.  The 2 teams do not compare talent wise.  I love Allen but he is not as good as Mahomes.  Hell I love McD and he isn't as good as Reid.  That doesn't make him a bad coach.

 

4. I'm not sure how you got I said teams won with less talent.  My point was the opposite.  Those teams were all MORE talented than the Bills teams.  Especially this year when Hyde and Miller were out for the year, Poyer was banged up, White didn't return as quickly or successfully as we hoped.  That is a lot of talent missing.  Hamlin going down meant the Bills were down to their 3rd string safety.

 

To your last paragraph "Most of those teams didn't have a Josh Allen" Sure I'll grant you that.  They did however have a Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Donald/Cooper Kupp/Jalen Ramsey/Matt Stafford, Legion of Boom, Ray Lewis/Ed Reed, etc.  The one outlier is Pederson winning with Foles.  

 

Logic's post below lays out exactly where your thinking goes wrong imo.

 

 

3 hours ago, Logic said:

The problem seems simple to me:

After so many years in the NFL wilderness, the Bills finally got good. They finally got a franchise QB and a good defense and a good front office and coaching staff.

They ascended from Wild Card loss, to AFC Championship loss, to narrow, improbable Divisional round loss, and then on to 2022, where the entire NFL world and Vegas anointed them Super Bowl favorites. All we heard for months was how they had the best roster in the NFL, how they were shoe-ins for the Super Bowl, the best team in the AFC, etc, etc. Last we saw Josh Allen, he was throwing non-stop fireballs, and the Bills looked unstoppable.

All of this created the expectation in Bills fans that it was "Super Bowl trophy or Bust!" from here on out. Well, funny thing about that...it's only "Super Bowl trophy" for one team every year, and it's "bust" for the other 31 teams. Unfortunately, the path to a championship is rarely a linear one. That is, there are usually ups and downs. Leaps forward and steps back. Unexpected setbacks. Random, unpredictable factors of chaos that make a mockery of the best laid plans. Things like, oh, I dunno, the star quarterback throwing on an injured elbow all year and a player's heart stopping in the middle of the field in front of all his teammates.

I'm not here to make excuses, only to point out that many Bills fans seem convinced that ANYTHING less than a Super Bowl championship must mean that coach McDermott is a failure. That's ridiculous. Patently absurd. He's a top 10 coach in the NFL by any measure, and probably more like top 5. If the Bills fired him, he'd have another head coaching job instantly. 

Does he need to be better in big postseason games against elite opponents? Yes. Would I love to see some fresh blood brought in on both sides of the ball in terms of assistants and coordinators? Sure. But despite all of that, is McDermott a very, very good NFL coach? Of course he is. 

 

This is exactly what I have been thinking about and I appreciate your post here.  He isn't flawless and this post was never meant to point that out.  This post just was meant to show that he is a hell of a coach and clearly has established himself in the upper echelon of the league.

[Logic]

28 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

This is exactly what I have been thinking about and I appreciate your post here.  He isn't flawless and this post was never meant to point that out.  This post just was meant to show that he is a hell of a coach and clearly has established himself in the upper echelon of the league.
 

And you did that effectively with your initial post, in my opinion. I apologize for not replying to it more directly or thanking you for it. It was a quality post. I more so was just feeling the need to vomit up my own thoughts on the matter. 

In particular, I feel that going into each season from here on out thinking "Super Bowl or bust" -- and declaring McDermott a failure any year that he fails to win a championship -- is an unhealthy and unreasonable way of thinking.

We should HOPE for a championship, of course, and we should expect to compete for one every year. The window is wide open, primarily because of Josh Allen. But there's a big gap between "I know we're contenders every year, and I expect the team to reach the Super Bowl" and "If the Bills don't win a title, McDermott has failed and/or should be fired". I know it's a cliche that makes people roll their eyes, but...it's HARD to win in this league. It's REALLY hard to win it all!

[schoolhouserock]

17 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Enjoy your adorable Marty Schottenheimer seasons. That should be fun. 

I think your repeated Marty Schottenheimer comparisons are worthless. However, let’s humor the idea and suppose that McD is a true comp to Marty and that their professional careers will be mirrors of one another.

 

Marty was the head coach for four franchises: the Browns, Chiefs, Redskins, and Chargers. His stint in Washington was brief - only a single season (2001: 8-8 record)

 

In his three other stretches, he took each of his teams to the playoffs with regularity. 
 

He took over the Browns mid-season in ‘84 and proceeded to get them into the playoffs in 85, 86, 87, and 88. After Marty left, the Browns managed the playoffs in ‘89, but were 3-13 the following season. They would have a four year drought before tasting the playoffs again. The Browns have won no super bowls since parting with Marty.

 

Marty next went to the Chiefs. The Chiefs had been 4-11 the two prior seasons. In his 10 seasons in KC, he coached them into the playoffs 7 times. After parting with Marty, the Chiefs had a four season playoff drought. It would be 21 years post-Marty before the Chiefs won a Super Bowl.

 

His final NFL HC stop was in San Diego, gaining 2 playoff appearances in five seasons. After parting with Marty, the Chargers still managed three consecutive playoff appearances before entering a period where they had one playoff appearance in eight seasons. The Chargers have won no super bowls since parting with Marty.

 

Even if one humors such a worthless comparison, it would still not argue in favor of making a change at HC.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Right, so why are people arguing that it's not, or at least from the premise that it isn't?  

 

I’m not quite sure what you mean by that. I’m not arguing that I am in total wait-and-see mode

[PBF81]

52 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m not quite sure what you mean by that. I’m not arguing that I am in total wait-and-see mode

 

A lot of people are, that's why I brought it up.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

But there's a big gap between "I know we're contenders every year, and I expect the team to reach the Super Bowl" and "If the Bills don't win a title, McDermott has failed and/or should be fired". I know it's a cliche that makes people roll their eyes, but...it's HARD to win in this league. It's REALLY hard to win it all!

I don't think the gap you refer to is that big. In fact, if your expectation is the team reach the Super Bowl and they continually fall short, they have necessarily failed and the next logical step is to examine which members of the organization could be exchanged for better results.

[Logic]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think the gap you refer to is that big. In fact, if your expectation is the team reach the Super Bowl and they continually fall short, they have necessarily failed and the next logical step is to examine which members of the organization could be exchanged for better results.

Fair. The important thing to remember is that "better results" are never guaranteed by any change undertaken. 

The Eagles fired Andy Reid after 13 years without a championship. He has brought his team to three Super Bowls and won two in the 10 years since. On the other hand, the Eagles themselves have made it to two Super Bowls and won one without him -- though they're on their third head coach since Reid left.

If the bar for "fire-worthy offense" is set at "win a championship", then even if that goal is not met for, say, five to seven consecutive years, then most NFL head coaches ought to have been fired by now. Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, et al.

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Logic